"What leads you to believe that diesel demand is up?" I don't think it's up, I think it's down. If so, then supply would have to be WAY down to justify a market based explanation of diesel's high cost in relation to gasoline.
These figures must be somewhere. Anyway, I kept assuring all my friends and relatives (when asked this past winter about how I liked having a diesel now that the price is so high) that it will come down in the summer - I gave the standard story. The only thing I can come up with right now is this conspiracy theory. Also, I respond that with the increased mpg, I am still ahead compared to the Toyota Sienna. Well, back to work. Christopher --- Royce Engler <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Crude oil, unleaded gasoline, heating oil and > natural gas are all traded on > the NYMEX. I did a cursory search to try to find > demand for diesel, but > didn't find it. What leads you to believe that > diesel demand is up? I > would assume that as the economy improves, demand > for all fuels would > increase. > > Refined products can be shipped just like crude oil, > and in fact, since the > US is not building new refineries, it is likely that > refineries built in the > Middle East and other locations will be shipping > significant amounts of > product to the USA at some point. In any case, the > major refining centers > for the US are New Jersey, Norfolk, the Gulf Coast, > and Southern California > (Long Beach). There are others around, but those > are the biggies. Product > pipelines run all across the country and deliver to > local terminals. > Product is also shipped by barge up the Mississippi > and other rivers. > Actual truck transport of product is pretty much > limited to "last mile" > delivery. There is a pretty complicated food chain > of middlemen > (middlepersons?) in between the refiner and the gas > station operator. > > Royce > > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of > Christopher McCann > Sent: Thursday, July 07, 2005 4:29 PM > To: Mercedes mailing list > Subject: RE: [MBZ] price of diesel...interesting > theory... > > > Royce, > > Your first point about the refining process new info > for me, I assumed a fixed percentage of gas, kero, > sludge, whatever came out of every batch. Good > point. > And it might be relevant if we have a high domestic > demand for diesel right now, which I don't think we > do. I would guess such data is available. > > 2nd para - competition for crude misses my point > which > is the DISPARITY in gasoline and diesel > prices...increased demand for crude (which there is > from China, etc) increases fuel in general. I > understand that. International competition for end > product - do people ship tanker loads of diesel and > gasoline around the world? Maybe they do, but seems > like refiniing is LARGELY a local process. > > "oil companies can't any more manipulate the price > of > product than the agribusiness folks can manipulate > the > price of corn flakes." > Which is why ADM got fined millions of dollars for > price fixing a couple years ago. > Kraft used to dump tons of cheese on the market to > force the price of milk down, then buy tons more > milk > to offset the loss on the cheese...until they got > caught about 5 years ago...read up on the Wisoconsin > Cheese Exchange. > Anyway, I know that crude is traded as a commodity - > at various grades - what about the finished product? > Price setting is left to the producer at that point, > it would seem. > > Christopher > > BioD in Germany, not part of my essential argument - > agree. They have an economy of scale on the > production > end (France too, largest consumer of BioD) and I > agree, it's probably taxed less. > > > > > --- Royce Engler <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Well, where to begin.... > > > > True...there are no "diesel refineries", although > > for any given refinery, > > the different trains are optimized for process and > > stream, and changing the > > mix is not exactly trivial. So...if there is an > > unanticipated shift in > > demand, the refiners can be caught making too much > > of one, and not enough of > > another. That's part of the planning process that > > refinery managers go > > through on a regular basis. > > > > "Higher demand" includes a lot of issues. It's > not > > just transportation, > > it's also competition for product and crude from > > other countries (i.e. China > > and India) and you won't necessarily see the > answer > > by looking at one small > > part (i.e. increased rail shipping). > > > > Contrary to popular mythicism, oil companies can't > > any more manipulate the > > price of product than the agribusiness folks can > > manipulate the price of > > corn flakes. The price of product is set on the > > commodity markets and is > > truly a function of supply and demand. > > > > The low price of BioD in Germany may be a function > > of a lot of things > > unrelated to the market. Maybe tax advantages for > > BioD? > > > > Royce Engler > > 1985 300TD Turbo 265K > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of > > Christopher McCann > > Sent: Thursday, July 07, 2005 11:36 AM > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Subject: [MBZ] price of diesel...interesting > > theory... > > > > > > I know these threads get tiring, but I am still in > > my > > first year of "dieseling" and I recall from this > > past > > winter the mantra "Diesel is always higher in the > > winter because of demand for heating oil. Gas is > > higher in the summer becuase of the travel season" > > Fall agricultural use also uses alot of diesel it > > was > > said...can't see, personally, how it's more than > > planting in winter - it should be less. Plow, > till, > > rotovate, plant, cultivate, etc...harvest is > nothing > > in comparison. > > > > ANYWAY, What the hell is the story now? > > > > >From what I know, there are no "diesel > refineries", > > there are oil refineries and all sorts of stuff > gets > > separated out. It can only be two things, it > seems: > > 1. Higher demand. Well, I doubt that as train > > shipping > > has jumped substantially (this happens in > uncertain > > economic times and confirmed by my friend who > works > > for one of the big rail freight lines) and trains > > use > > ALOT less diesel to move the same freight as > trucks > > would. Is trucking up so much to offset this and > > create higher demand? > > 2. Conspiracy (unproveable speculation here). The > > oil > > companies remember that the '70's oil crisis > caused > > a > > jump in the sale of diesel vehicles. It's > happening > > again. Many new diesel models introduced. Front > > cover > > of local car mag advertized the diesel Passat > Wagon > > at > > 30-whatever mpg, etc. Fed gov just passed a $4,000 > > (!) > > tax credit for the purchase of a new diesel > vehicle. > > > > The oil co's didn't care in the 70's/80's as they > > sold > > gas and diesel. WHAT IS DIFFERENT NOW is that BioD > > is > > becoming increasingly popular (log way to go, but > no > > doubt it is happening). I am wondering if they are > > not > > keeping the cost high to DISSUADE the purchase of > > diesel vehicles which in a few years might be able > > to > > fill up on BioD for less than dinoD, which will > mean > > $0 from THAT customer to big oil (unless they are > in > > the BioD game too (I would be if I were them)). > > > > In Germany BioD is the CHEAPEST fuel > available...so > > with economy of scale, price will come way down. > > (Euro > > fuels are so high becuase they are about 70% tax). > > > > Thoughts on the conspiracy theory? > > > > P.S. THe old 240D (new to me) is working great. > > Fun...going from the SD to it is like driving a > > Mercedes go-cart...peppier than I thought (W115 > > might > > be the reason). > > > > Thanks. > > > > Christopher McCann, Raytown, Missouri > > -1985 300SD, 207K miles, "Wulf" > > http://don.homelinux.net/mbz/Chris > > -1976 240D, ManyK miles, "AKP-Wagen" > (Alternativen > > Kraftstoffs > > Prüfenlastwagen = Alternative Fuel Test Vehicle) > > -1998 Toyota Sienna CE, 99K miles, "The Van" > > > > __________________________________________________ > > Do You Yahoo!? > > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam > > protection around > > http://mail.yahoo.com > > > > _______________________________________ > > For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > For new parts see www.buymbparts.com > > For repairs see www.oldworldauto.com > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > > http://striplin.net/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_striplin.net > > > > > > > > _______________________________________ > > For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > For new parts see www.buymbparts.com > > For repairs see www.oldworldauto.com > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > > http://striplin.net/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_striplin.net > > > > > Christopher McCann, Raytown, Missouri > -1985 300SD, 207K miles, "Wulf" > http://don.homelinux.net/mbz/Chris > -1976 240D, ManyK miles, "AKP-Wagen" (Alternativen > Kraftstoffs > Prüfenlastwagen = Alternative Fuel Test Vehicle) > -1998 Toyota Sienna CE, 99K miles, "The Van" > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam > protection around > http://mail.yahoo.com > > _______________________________________ > For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED] > For new parts see www.buymbparts.com > For repairs see www.oldworldauto.com > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://striplin.net/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_striplin.net > > > > _______________________________________ > For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED] > For new parts see www.buymbparts.com > For repairs see www.oldworldauto.com > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://striplin.net/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_striplin.net > Christopher McCann, Raytown, Missouri -1985 300SD, 207K miles, "Wulf" http://don.homelinux.net/mbz/Chris -1976 240D, ManyK miles, "AKP-Wagen" (Alternativen Kraftstoffs Prüfenlastwagen = Alternative Fuel Test Vehicle) -1998 Toyota Sienna CE, 99K miles, "The Van" __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! 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