On 7/20/05 10:34 PM, "Herb Chong" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> the CIPA actual total matched pretty closely with forecast for year-end > 2004. Canon and Nikon were only a few percent off. ???? Last month, all makers combined produced approx 250K DSLRs for world wide and this figure has been fairly consistent for the last several month. I think the recent peak was around Sept last year when they produced approx 330K. DSLR market size is expanding right now particularly at the entry level and that's why all makers are concentrating in this area now. But if your "forecast figures" particularly by N/C have to be believed (I am not questioning your credibility, but the makers'), it is overly optimistic (or deliberately inflated). They can "forecast' anything they want. After some more months of trend watching, the truth might come out. > businesses who forecast > too far wrong consistently don't get trusted anymore and that shows up as > volatility in their share prices. companies are rewarded for consistently > meeting guidance with no positive or negative surprises by having stable > share prices. Exactly. And C/N, particularly Canon is notorious. Pentax is rather conscientious and never overly inflate their forecast. Always modest. I am not sure if Oly inflated their forecast last year but certainly overestimated the market expansion and got burnt severely. The market is too volatile and there were too many PS manufafctured based on optimistic forecast. Look what happened to Sanyo, the King of Digicam OEM. Very dangerous time :-). Go slow for now might be right. Only Canon can take some risk. Nikon was quiet for some time until recently. Do something crazy now and you go down the drain quickly, while a surprise maker or two might sweep our feet. You never know. Better to watch than act hastily. As I said, it would all be beneficial to consumers because we will have more choice of excellent products at competitive price, and soon. Cheers, Ken
