Joseph Tainter wrote on Mon, 01 Jan 2007 09:50:43 -0800: > I should clarify this, since some people thought I was referring to a > possible switch to Sony. That isn't what I meant. > > There are many "ifs." Here are two: (1) If the rumor is true. (2)If > the > sensor is affordable enough to bring out a camera at the original > price > point of the D100 and *ist D--about U.S. $1700. If these "ifs" should > come true, this sensor will gain an expanding share of the market, and > in time either drive out APS-C sensors, or reduce their use to very > low-end cameras. That is why I am wondering whether I should buy any > more DA lenses. > > Whether APS-C is good enough for anyone's individual needs, or for > DSLRs > in general, is irrelevant. Problems of using wide angle lenses on a > 24 x > 36 mm sensor are irrelevant. The 645D is irrelevant. All that matters > will be the dynamics of the market. Reviewers and retailers will hype > the sensor. It will become the standard. Nikon will have to adopt it, > then Pentax will follow. > > This is not speculation. It is what we see happening now with the > 10 mp > sensor starting to displace the 6 mp sensor that many of us liked. > > I hope these things don't happen. I like my DA lenses and I like shake > reduction. But if this sensor materializes, watch the price carefully. > If it is priced affordably, the days of the APS-C sensor and DA lenses > are numbered.
Joe, I can agree with much of your reasoning but I think that if FF DSLRs are priced above $1500 there will still be a limited market for them compared to APS-C DSLRs priced at $800 and below. Most camera buyers are not advanced amateurs and for them, $1500 (plus lenses) is a very significant barrier to purchase. I expect to see entry-level DSLRs offered for less than $400 or less with a kit lens by the end of the year, and FF will likely never get to this price point. IMO, the DA lenses will continue to have a significant market for a long, long time. Of course, you would have to sell your DA lenses if you moved to FF, but there *will* be a market for them. Remember the film SLR market - the >$1000 cameras only sold in small numbers; the volume sales were of sub-$500 cameras. I'm betting that the DSLR market will follow a similar pattern. Regards, Jim -- PDML Pentax-Discuss Mail List PDML@pdml.net http://pdml.net/mailman/listinfo/pdml_pdml.net
