I feel like I just had a Sally Field at the Oscars moment. Thanks Bill. I'm tearful.
Someone understands me. Weep weep. ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of William Marino Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 10:06 AM To: [email protected] Subject: RE: Dealing Ellsbury? Ah, the statistics-intuition dichotomy raised its ugly head again. My two cents: No reason most of you would know this, but I transitioned my career from law to private equity 4 years ago. In my four years on Wall St. (that's a bold acknowledgement these days), I've seen the statistics-only guys. They think that they can model everything. They take very complex circumstances, that they don't fully understand, and reduce them to excel spreadsheets. Then they want to be patted on their heads like proud two-year olds. The explosion of the banks is classic example. Mortgage-backed piles of dung were sliced and diced and modeled to show rates of return. No one ever opened their eyes to see that they were modeling piles of dung. The same is true in baseball. Not all statistics are created equally. The defensive stats clearly have some subjective components to them. This creates error in the system, which is impossible to quantify. Thus, they can be useful, but over rely on them to your own peril. I will take a good scout, with a proven track record, over Bill James any day of the week. ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Beaudoin, John Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 9:49 AM To: [email protected] Subject: RE: Dealing Ellsbury? You need a cannon for an arm when you can't get to balls that a guy like Ellsbury gets to. It's simple to see when they each have their positions. Like Mickey Rivers and Ricky Henderson and all those speedy guys in center. As far as "If you don't use stats what do you use?it's all you have in baseball. " goes, well, I don't know what else to say. I guess there is no need for any team to have scouts. You can just look at stats. There's no need for voting of any kind for MVP or the like because we can just use stats. My point has always been that members of this group seem to rely upon stats alone to make decisions for them. I like to go by "feeling" and derive my opinions from things I see, hear, and read about a player in addition to the stats. I don't throw them out. But I temper them with reality. If someone is hitting behind Manny his entire career, he's going to have different stats than someone hitting behind Alex Gonzalez his entire career. But he may be a victim of circumstance and you can't say he's any better or worse of a hitter based on stats alone. This is where opinion and circumstance comes into play. Stats can be deceiving. If the managers and coaches in MLB relied on stats alone, then they could be swapped out for an IPod Touch. John ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Tom Salemi Sent: Thursday, December 17, 2009 10:29 PM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Dealing Ellsbury? He's got a cannon for an arm. Need Drew in right. On Thu, Dec 17, 2009 at 10:24 PM, Charles Battikha <[email protected]> wrote: If you don't use stats what do you use?it's all you have in baseball. Sent from my iPod On Dec 17, 2009, at 9:37 PM, "Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]> wrote: Well then Sox mgt has been making a mistake for years not having Drew in center. I never said I thought Ellsbury was great or that I wouldn't trade him. I merely take exception to the reliance upon stats to determine his defensive worth. ________________________________ From: [email protected] <[email protected]> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> Sent: Thu Dec 17 18:27:28 2009 Subject: RE: Dealing Ellsbury? JD Drew really is a great defensive OFer. He tracks down everything and makes it look easy. I always tell my kids to watch JD in the OF. How do Youk and Lowell compare at 3B? ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Charles Battikha Sent: Thursday, December 17, 2009 8:12 PM To: <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] Subject: Re: Dealing Ellsbury? If you believe in Zone Rating, then: Jacoby Ellsbury is not a defensive star. He's actually rated lower than Jason Bay in Zone Rating. JD Drew is best in the OF for the Red Sox. MIke Cameron is also very high. Equal to Drew. And Youkilis is better than Adrian Gonzalez at 1st Base for a zone rating Having said that. I'm not sold on trading Ellsbury. I like having that kind of player on the team. That can make something happen with speed. On Dec 17, 2009, at 7:36 PM, Ray Salemi wrote: Amazing. A defensive gem whose been proven not to reach as many balls as other players. I wonder if he'd have to dive less if he got a better jump. On Thu, Dec 17, 2009 at 5:07 PM, Beaudoin, John < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> wrote: Hmmm. You mean stats and numbers don't accurately represent a player's worth? Blasphemer. Defensively he's a gem. Had a good year at the plate, too. He gets to balls and makes hits into outs. He almost gets to balls and a few times makes hits into errors. He freaks out pitchers on the bases. Speed is important. So, I like him. He's a proven ML player. ________________________________ From: <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> To: <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> Sent: Thu Dec 17 13:24:27 2009 Subject: Re: Dealing Ellsbury? I don't think "ironic" is the word you are looking for. I think you are looking for "typical". On Thu, Dec 17, 2009 at 4:23 PM, William Marino < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> wrote: Ironic. Ellsbury just won <http://MLB.com> MLB.com's Defensive Player of the Year. -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" <http://www.leadingafteralayoff.com/> www.leadingafteralayoff.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at <http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at <http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" <http://www.leadingafteralayoff.com/> www.leadingafteralayoff.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at <http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] <mailto:redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> . For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
