Re: [cobirds] Yard list questions: How many of CO's 520 species have been seen (or heard) from a yard?

2024-03-13 Thread Bryan Guarente
If anyone wants to put their species into a shared Google Sheet using the
CFO list of accepted species, feel free to go check off the ones you have
seen in your yard here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OTEqQswiC_DjCkPZblkX36GS1cA0GdPVND8osM1Gkuo/edit?usp=sharing
(Honor system please... only check birds that you have seen in your yard
and don't uncheck other folks checks).

To join in on the conversation for my own yard:

*How long have you been keeping your list?*
Been keeping a yard list since 2000, but I have moved multiple times and
thus have to change my yard list to another location.  Current run is 15
years.

*What's your style of yard listing: casual, mainly feeder watching,
moderate, dedicated, obsessed?*
Dedicated to obsessed


*How many species?*
121

*Rarest species?*
Upland Sandpiper calling flying over my house at 11pm
Anhinga circling for multiple minutes with good binocular views
White-faced Ibises flying over at 10pm
Purple Finch (shared with many observers)
Chestnut-sided Warbler took up residence for a bit of a summer
Mountain Chickadees are nice this far away from the Foothills
Clay-colored and Brewer's Sparrows during Spring snowstorms

*Favorite species?*
Swainson's Hawks that nest nearby and hunt snakes in our backyard
Great Horned Owls hunting for those same snakes

*Most memorable experience?*
Definitely the Upland Sandpiper... totally unexpected and wasn't
particularly "birding" at 11pm

*Location/habitat: urban, suburban, rural, etc?*
Suburban Longmont in the flyway between McIntosh Lake and Union Reservoir

Hope others continue this thread.  It is fascinating!  Thanks Thomas for
starting it.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Wed, Mar 13, 2024 at 7:37 AM Susanna Donato 
wrote:

> What a fun thread! I am in the heart of urban Denver and have had feeders
> up/been birding for only a couple of years. My yard total is just 39
> species. We have a National Wildlife Federation-certified yard (just for
> fun) with some fruiting trees and lots of brush and piles of junk, but also
> very diligent squirrels and two terrier-type dogs to frustrate matters. I
> watch daily but distractedly.
>
> Most notable for me have been a close encounter with a Black-Chinned
> Hummingbird that hovered within a few feet for a minute or two as I ate my
> breakfast/birded one morning, a Sharp-Shinned Hawk in my cherry tree and on
> the fence just outside my window and diving into the cotoneaster frequented
> by a flock of house sparrows (verified by Dick Anderson, a far more veteran
> birder), and the white-crowned sparrows that lived in our yard or nearby
> last winter.
>
> Favorites include the Spotted Towhees that have lived in our yard the last
> two years and raised two young that I watched grow up at close range, ten
> feet outside my office window. Last summer we had Swainson's Hawks growing
> up in the neighborhood, which was neat to see. A Bald Eagle supposedly
> nests somewhere on the street behind mine, and a couple of months ago, I
> heard it but did not see it -- I gave up obsessively looking for it for my
> own sanity but still hold out hope. :)
>
> On Tuesday, March 12, 2024 at 4:51:44 PM UTC-6 Sarah Behunek wrote:
>
>> Yes, very fun discussion and thanks for sharing!
>> *Where and how long.*
>> I have lived at 6030 feet west of Horsetooth Reservoir (south of
>> Horsetooth Mt. Park) for 21 years. I started with one bird feeder about 10
>> years ago.
>> That mushroomed to more feeders over the last few years. I started
>> casually journal counting last year and now do a daily EBird count (Robins
>> just showed up today!)
>> As I am new to the count, I haven't broken down by species yet. My 40+
>> list includes many of the common and migratory birds found in Colorado and
>> at my elevation with a reliable food source good water sources nearby.
>> *Notable for me: *Separately, Cooper's and Sharp Shinned Hawk in
>> the tree outside my window.  I had a Bald Eagle chase a Raven (it had a
>> snake in its beak) from my yard utility pole with Magpies flying along
>> opportunistically. I had a Gullnado (most likely reservoir/landfill ring
>> billed-gulls). And now, we have Wild Turkeys (sometimes 3, sometimes 16
>> routinely coming through our yard for feeder snacks this year and to ride
>> on the "merry go round" that is my tray feeder.
>> And sometimes we can year the SandHill Cranes flying over our area.
>> Happy Birding.
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Mar 11, 2024 at 10:40 AM Thomas Heinrich 
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Hi all,
>>>
>>> Every now and then one of us will share the excitement of adding a
>>> rarity or new species to a yard list, report yard lis

[cobirds] [Migration Forecast] Thursday through Saturday Oct 26 through 28

2023-10-25 Thread Bryan Guarente
Hey COBirders,
Back again for some good news migration forecast updates...

Thursday morning at 6am:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/26/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green circle is Longmont)

That link above looks like we should see an interesting local push of
migrants from northeast of us (Manitoba, ND, SD, NE) tomorrow morning.
Concentrations would be highest around the Palmer Divide.  Later in the day
though, this changes to the northern Front Range overall with a strong
convergence northwest of Cheyenne.  Here is that map, Thursday afternoon
2pm:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/26/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green circle is Longmont)

Not long after that though, the migration pattern changes from out of the
NE to out of the NW with a long trajectory from well into Canada.

10pm Thursday evening:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/27/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green circle is Longmont)

And from then on the winds are NW with a long trajectory from Canada, but
there is no specific area of concentration of birds in CO, just general
migration, but a long distance connection.  So this means get out there and
see if you can find the concentrations of birds based on food sources/good
habitat.

Then later into Friday, here comes the precipitation and along with it
easterly winds which should drive the birds toward the Front Range.  Here
is a representative Saturday look to show you generally what the birds will
be working with in terms of migration.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/28/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191

This day doesn't look great for migrants coming in from long distances, but
does look good for redistribution of birds into the Front Range where
hopefully you will be out looking.  Some of the birds that were deposited
into the Eastern Plains of CO could get redistributed toward the Front
Range for your viewing pleasure.

Good luck out there!
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast Update (Oct 23/24) and Looking further (Oct26/27)

2023-10-22 Thread Bryan Guarente
Hey COBirders,
And just like that, Monday/Tuesday night doesn't look as good for
migration! These are the same times as my last post, but the models have
updated and the weather situation has changed. There is a stronger low that
is forming in Montana that will draw the winds into it instead of letting
them come down our direction. You can see the spinning low here (10pm
Monday Oct 23):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green circle is Longmont)

Then overnight, our northerly flow gets cut off significantly (6am Tuesday
Oct 24):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green circle is Longmont)

So cancel the stronger bird migration for Monday/Tuesday. But, Thursday
through Friday are starting to look good. Here is just a taste (6am Oct
26):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/26/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle is Longmont)

I'll post again as we get closer.

Happy birding to you!
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast: Oct 23/24

2023-10-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
We have another fun event coming up on Oct 23/24.  Cut to the chase:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.14,43.74,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(10pm
Oct 23; Green circle is Longmont, CO)

That map is one of the best examples of funneling or convergence I have
seen.  Follow the winds backwards from CO and you can see that they are
originating from the far north of Canada.  Anywhere along that track is
where birds could join this parade toward CO.  Once they join the southern
half of that main push, they will get funneled toward CO.

So what's the catch... Well, this happens a little on the early side for
the best migration to hit CO.  The timing of that map is 10pm, but as the
night goes on, this pattern weakens.

Oct 24 2am:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/0800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle is Longmont, CO)

Oct 24 6am:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/24/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.86,48.22,1404/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle is Longmont, CO)

We should still see migrants on the move and they will likely concentrate
on the Front Range south of Denver with the highest densities likely around
Pueblo.  So if you are making plans to bird on Monday late or Tuesday any
time, I would suggest heading toward the Pueblo area.  If you are like me
and don't want to travel that far to bird, stay close to the Front Range
and keep your eyes peeled on your local hotspot, as all places along the
Front Range could see a good push of migrants.

Hope to see you out there picking up the goodies,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Re: Migration Forecast Thursday Oct 5: Heads up

2023-10-04 Thread Bryan Guarente
Hey COBirders,
Here is an update to the previous migration forecast.

There isn't much change from last forecast except that there is a longer
period of time when migrants could be coming into the Front Range.  Instead
of it being a quick blast of winds into the Front Range with a passing cold
front, the front will hang up a bit on the Raton Mesa (southern CO/northern
NM) and should give us a longer period of time with winds turning into the
Front Range (All day Thursday instead of 3-6 hours).  Here is the
"best-looking" map to show you what I mean:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/06/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.79,44.36,1404/loc=-105.254,40.036
(10pm
Thursday night; Green circle is Longmont).

Bird concentrations should pick up with the frontal passage tomorrow
morning (early morning for Northern CO, later morning for southern CO).

Still, I am not seeing any specific areas where birds will concentrate due
to the wind pattern.  It looks like a broad brush of birds along the entire
Front Range.  The overall pattern and connection to the Arctic should give
higher probabilities of bird concentrations on the Eastern Plains of CO and
into KS, but if you aren't willing to make the drive, there should be birds
showing up all along the Front Range so don't feel like you will be missing
too much.

Please provide updates as you have them tomorrow and beyond.  All data is
good data.  And help keep me honest by letting me know if the forecast is
"right" or not for your area.

Good luck out there!
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 7:36 AM Bryan Guarente 
wrote:

> COBirders,
> I've been waiting for a good migration forecast to come together for CO as
> the migration season is passing us by, what feels like, pretty quickly.
> This Thursday has the potential to be a good day for Coloradoans.  Here is
> 6am on Thursday Oct 5 (green circle is Longmont, CO, but feel free to move
> around in time to see when the front is near you):
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/05/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.66,43.60,1918/loc=-105.120,40.191
>
> The forecast calls for frontal passage at 850mb to be right around sun up
> for a bunch of Colorado.  This means any birds looking for a meal after
> traveling overnight behind that front could put down in your area at sun-up
> to get some chow.  The origins of this frontal airmass are Northern Canada,
> with our local winds maybe only originating from WY/MT depending on how the
> forecast pans out.
>
> There are no strong areas of convergence for birds to concentrate on, so
> expect that we will see an increase in migrants overall, but no particular
> location getting the best of it based on the weather (based on the food
> sources, that may be a different story).
>
> Best bets: Eastern plains lakes/reservoirs.
>
> Also, if you have any desire/need to chase the Kansas American Flamingo,
> you should probably do it before Thursday, because my educated guess is
> this bird will move on with this frontal passage.  And it will be moving
> southeast, not west, no matter how much we want it to.
>
> I'll keep you posted as this week moves along.
>
> Thanks,
> Bryan
>
> Bryan Guarente
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
> UCAR/The COMET Program
> Boulder, CO
>

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast Thursday Oct 5: Heads up

2023-10-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
I've been waiting for a good migration forecast to come together for CO as
the migration season is passing us by, what feels like, pretty quickly.
This Thursday has the potential to be a good day for Coloradoans.  Here is
6am on Thursday Oct 5 (green circle is Longmont, CO, but feel free to move
around in time to see when the front is near you):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/10/05/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.66,43.60,1918/loc=-105.120,40.191

The forecast calls for frontal passage at 850mb to be right around sun up
for a bunch of Colorado.  This means any birds looking for a meal after
traveling overnight behind that front could put down in your area at sun-up
to get some chow.  The origins of this frontal airmass are Northern Canada,
with our local winds maybe only originating from WY/MT depending on how the
forecast pans out.

There are no strong areas of convergence for birds to concentrate on, so
expect that we will see an increase in migrants overall, but no particular
location getting the best of it based on the weather (based on the food
sources, that may be a different story).

Best bets: Eastern plains lakes/reservoirs.

Also, if you have any desire/need to chase the Kansas American Flamingo,
you should probably do it before Thursday, because my educated guess is
this bird will move on with this frontal passage.  And it will be moving
southeast, not west, no matter how much we want it to.

I'll keep you posted as this week moves along.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast: Migrants are here and more are coming

2023-08-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
It has been a nice change in the migrant pattern recently.  By that, I mean
we are starting to see more of them.  There have been a few nice instances
to share with you:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/08/13/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-106.01,54.49,1548/loc=-105.120,40.191
(green
circle is Longmont for reference)

The above is a link for this past Monday at 6am, slightly before the bird
of interest was found.
*Q1*) What might have shown up with this type of pattern, and where might
it have stopped?  If you look at that link before reading on, you can make
your own answer before finding out one of the answers.

There was a minor cold frontal passage this morning and it could lead to a
good push of migrants showing up in the eBird alerts.  Keep your eyes
peeled today to see what comes.

6am Thursday, Aug 17:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/08/17/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-106.01,54.49,1548/loc=-105.120,40.191

*Q2a*) Where do you think the migrants will show up and what would you
expect those birds to be?
*Q2b*) Does the source region for these winds match with the expected
distribution and eBird bar charts for what species you "should/could" find
this week?

*Q1 answer:* Upland Sandpiper at Lagerman Reservoir in Boulder County.
There were probably plenty of other interesting birds, that was just the
one I happened to be most intrigued by with this weather pattern.

Discuss as you see fit and good luck with migration.  Keep your eyes and
ears peeled.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] LIMPKIN: Ramah Reservoir El Paso County June 23

2023-06-23 Thread Bryan Guarente
Karen Rau emailed me photos of a Limpkin from Ramah Reservoir this
morning.  Here is the exact location: https://goo.gl/maps/dPeCDA94KakssxdB9

Best of luck to all of you who chase it.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Red-faced Warbler in CO

2023-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
I love rare birds from odd places, and found in odd places (maybe not so
odd as the habitat looks good, just the location isn’t oft birded).

Why would this bird stop in this location?  Well, looks like weather is an
easy culprit this time.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/05/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.18,36.98,1812/loc=-102.073,37.383

The green circle in that link is the location of the Red-faced Warbler
sighting.

You can see the winds are from the south in NM where this bird can be seen
at times and in certain habitats. You may also see a boundary where the
winds are deforming to the east of the green circle (contracting in the
north-south direction and pulling apart in the SE to NW direction). This
boundary can be extrapolated westward to just north of where this bird was
found. Those boundaries are often good places to go look for birds, and it
panned out yesterday for those in the area lucky enough to chase it.

In Spring, may the deformation/boundary be just to your north!

Bryan

On Wed, May 3, 2023 at 2:46 PM Peter Gent  wrote:

> All,
>
> The Red-faced Warbler was seen yesterday at Burchfield State Wildlife
> Area, which is east of Springfield and about a mile from the Kansas line in
> Baca County.
>
> There are 2 previous documentations of Red-faced Warbler in CO in the CBRC
> database:  https://cobrc.org/Reports/SpeciesDetail.aspx?id=413  The first
> was exactly 30 years ago on May 3rd 1993 at the Wheat Ridge Greenbelt in
> the NW Denver metro area (only seen for 1 day).  The second was on May 4th
> 2017 in a yard in Dolores in SW Colorado (only seen for 20 minutes).  So,
> it seems that the first few days of May is the time to look for this
> species in Colorado.
>
> Cheers,  Peter Gent.
> Chairman, CBRC.
>
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>
-- 
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast: Opening the gates (4/23 and beyond)

2023-04-21 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
There have been plenty of birds around, and it looks like the gates are
about to open for the next few days.  Starting on Saturday night, the winds
are going to turn around to south overall.

On the maps below, the green circle is Longmont, CO.  The green circle is
only for reference in the following loops.  Also use the rivers on the map
to help you orient.  The Rio Grande, Colorado, and Arkansas rivers are all
shown on the map.  And the latitude and longitude lines are also present.
Fun fact: The 40˚N parallel/line goes straight down Baseline Road in Boulder
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseline_Road_(Colorado)#:~:text=Origin%20of%20the%20name,-On%20May%2030=The%2040th%20parallel%20became%20the,cut%20along%20the%20survey%20baseline.>
if that helps anyone.

The beginning of south winds, but not yet connected to the Gulf (4/22 10pm):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/23/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.17,38.81,2474/loc=-105.120,40.191

The connection to the Gulf of Mexico/Veracruz happens (4/23 10pm):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/24/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.17,38.81,2474/loc=-105.120,40.191

The connection continues and the convergence gets better (4/24 10pm):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/25/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.17,38.81,2474/loc=-105.120,40.191

The connection is STILL there (4/25 10pm):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/26/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.17,38.81,2474/loc=-105.120,40.191

*Overall predictions:*
So what does this all mean?  It looks like we will see a lot of migrant
turnover in the next few days.  If you were waiting for that good push of
migrants, it is coming.  If you were waiting for a major fallout, this
isn't likely at large scales.  Maybe in some smaller areas with great food
sources or heavy precipitation at just the right time, you will get little
fallouts, but I am expecting broad scale migration from TX and the Gulf
Coast.

Expect the flavor of birds to be more eastern as we are connecting to
Veracruz and the Gulf of Mexico and then later further east.  This should
give us a distinctly more "eastern" flavor unlike the last storm system
that was much more southwestern flavor (Black-throated Sparrow, Harris's
Hawk, Common Black Hawk and likely others).  So get your hummingbird
feeders out if they aren't already up, keep your ears peeled for Sandhill
Cranes (Common Crane anyone?), shorebirds a plenty, and an increase in
birds across the board.

*Local predictions:*
Pueblo to La Junta could be the biggest winner in terms of concentrations.
On the 24th and 25th, there is an area of greater convergence around the
Arkansas river next to the mountains (pretty much Pueblo) stretching out to
Ja Junta that should increase concentrations and that stays relatively
consistent with time.  So expect birds to show up and stay for at least a
couple days in the area.

In other areas of the Front Range, there will definitely be migrants, but
no specific areas of higher concentrations due to meteorological features.
Yet, find the food source, find the birds (Thanks Dave Leatherman for the
reminders), so concentrations may be high based on food sources (swallows
at lakes, phalaropes on lakes, warblers in hedgerows).  With
non-Arkansas river valley eastern portions of the state, expect birds to be
one-day wonders, so get out and get them if you hear about something rare
you want to see.  Or keep your eyes on your feeders starting Sunday and
well into Tuesday.  The birds are coming!

Please help keep me honest by posting your sightings, positive or
negative.  All data is good data.  And thank your local forecaster even if
the migration forecast is wrong.  He appreciates it every time.

Hope you enjoy the days to come as they will contain the push of migrants
we always wait for.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast: Spring Storm Apr 13-14

2023-04-13 Thread Bryan Guarente
Hey COBirders,
I have been a little out of the ornithological and meteorological loops
recently, but someone egged me on to get back in with this upcoming storm.
Seriously, thanks for egging me on.  You know who you are.

*6am April 13th (Thursday morning; from the past; Green circle is Longmont
for reference)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/13/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2811/loc=-105.120,40.191
On that map above, you can see the beginnings of stronger southwest winds
from the Southwest US toward CO.  Note the big river of stronger winds from
Texas is NOT making its way into CO.  This pattern only intensifies as the
day goes on and the mountains heat up...

*2pm April 13th (Thursday afternoon; from the past**; Green circle is
Longmont for reference**)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/13/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2811/loc=-105.120,40.191
The pattern intensifies, and we stay connected to the SW U.S., not Texas
like can bring us the more "eastern" birds.  We are however set up to see
more Southwest specialties (Black-throated Sparrow and Black Phoebe, for
instance (and I am showing my northern CO bias)).  The main river of
strongest winds remains well to our east.  With the forecast frontal
passage and spring storm coming tomorrow (Apr 14th), some people have
speculated that we will see some good spring storm birds.  I think we
aren't as poised as we can be for a big "fallout" or "put down" in this
case.  Showing the same map again but with a different green circle
location:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/13/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2811/loc=-107.828,43.709
That green circle is the beginnings of the cold front that will pass
through us during the overnight hours (Apr 13th into 14th).

*10pm April 13th (Thursday night; maybe in the past depending on when you
read this)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/14/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2811/loc=-105.175,42.271
Front is still up in Wyoming, and the leading edge is indicated by the
green circle where the winds are changing to a more northerly direction.
And most of CO is shutting down it's SW connection and getting ready for
the northerly connection.

*6am April 14th (Friday morning; green circle is Longmont)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/14/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2811/loc=-105.120,40.191
The front is now through me in Longmont and is almost to Pueblo.  Frontal
passages can happen really fast through the state as seen here.  So now the
northern 2/3 of the state is cut off from migrants, but may have had some
southwestern migrants into the state that will now be somewhat desperate
for food in the morning.  I don't see any good concentration points
anywhere in the state.

*2pm April 14th (Friday afternoon; green circle is leading edge of the
front)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/14/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.28,39.51,2811/loc=-104.368,37.595
The connection to the Southwest U.S. that was present on Thursday, is now
no more anywhere in the state.

*10pm April 14th (Friday night; green circle is leading edge of stalling
front now in NM)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/04/15/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.28,39.51,2811/loc=-101.708,35.881
And now at 10pm, there are no good chances of spring migrants adding to the
mix during Friday overnight.  This also means that the birds that showed up
on Thursday night will likely still be around for the weekend birding rush.

So in summary, we will get migrants, they will likely have a southwestern
flavor to them, not an eastern flavor.  There aren't any particularly good
locations for bird convergence during this storm, but there are likely
birds out there that will be desperate for food tomorrow depending on
their food needs (think like Dave Leatherman) and will be likely easier to
find and might end up at your feeders or a local insect hotspot.

As usual, all data is good data, so let us know what happens on COBirds or
the CFO facebook group.

Hope this email gets you thinking and looking.  I wish you good birding
wherever that may be tomorrow.   May the migrants come to you.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] problem posting to ebird

2022-12-07 Thread Bryan Guarente
Multiple people have reported this behavior with iPhones since the last
eBird update. For some users all returns to good after a few app restarts
and often a full power down of the phone and then power up.

This has only been affecting iPhone users on iOS 16.1 or higher. The newest
version of eBird’s app (2.15.3) seems to be the culprit so far.

All users on Facebook’s eBird discussion community that are experiencing
this problem have found the issue to be fleeting.

I hope this can set you at ease r it may not fix the problems.

Good luck,
Bryan

On Wed, Dec 7, 2022 at 8:33 PM 'Norm Lewis' via Colorado Birds <
cobirds@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> EBird has been acting odd for a couple days.
>
> Norm
> Sent from my iPhone
>
>
> On Dec 7, 2022, at 3:30 PM, Charlie Paterson 
> wrote:
>
> 
> I use ebird frequently, but today I had a problem posting an observation.
> I researched on ebird and sent a request for help but it looks like it
> might be days for a reply.
>
> Here's the problem:  When I add an observation such as 3 house finch  or
> 3 hofi  the auto ID line says "can't find your bird?' and when I press that
> and then press "search all species" it ends my session.  App is up to date,
> Merlin works fine and the locations I've tried I've used many times before.
>
> I'd appreciate any suggestions.
>
> Charlie Paterson
> charlieapater...@gmail.com
>
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-- 
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Forecast: September 20-21

2022-09-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
Overnight on September 20th, the conditions are really good for migrant
movement and convergence over CO.  Here is my "now" (8pm Sept 20):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.89,46.82,1601/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle at Longmont, CO)

You can see a nice swath of convergent winds from Canada into somewhere
just east of Longmont (I'll be outside listening in a few minutes after
this email is sent).  And that long swath convergence from up north in
Canada remains strong throughout the night, but alters position to further
south at 6am:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/09/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.89,46.82,1601/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle at Longmont, CO)

At 6am, that pattern looks better to be dropping birds along the Arkansas
River and a bit south of that.  Make sure to get out and check in the
morning because anywhere behind this front you could find funneled birds.

And for those wanting to night-listen, the cloud cover will be dropping
lower as the night goes on.  This will bring the birds lower to the ground
as well, making them easier to hear.  If you want to track the forecast
cloud cover at DIA, you can check it out here
<https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?location=KDEN=2=1=Custom=true=1=auto=fa-chart-bar=Tmax=%3E%3D=40=false=false=true=false=true=local=CloudCover%2CCeiling%2CWindDirection%2CWinds%2CWindsAloft>.
If you click the three horizontal bars in the top right corner, you can
select different locations as needed.

Hope you get some good birds moving through tomorrow despite the rain.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Forecast: Thursday and Friday August 18/19

2022-08-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
CoBirders,
It has been a nice summer including some unexpected migrants that have made
little sense meteorologically (Red Knot).

Here we are though at the edge of Summer/Fall and amply into the monsoon
season (yes, it is a thing --> ask if you want to know more).  What does
this mean for ornithological migration?  It means mostly shorebirds, but we
are getting close to the earlier migrants.  Where are most of our
shorebirds coming from?  The northern prairies into the Arctic of Canada.

So look at this pattern:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/08/18/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.93,52.84,1333/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green circle is Longmont, CO for reference).

What do you think will be coming our way on Thursday?  By midday on
Thursday, it looks like we are set to receive 850mb winds from the correct
direction to see a good push of migrants from the middle of Canada, likely
mostly shorebirds, but some of the earlier passerines are possible.  It is
also possible that some of your locals will be leaving you if they are
earlier migrants so get in your goodbyes while you can.

Later that evening, the winds look better, but that doesn't last forever:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/08/19/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.93,52.84,1333/loc=-105.120,40.191
(really
good looking pattern, but with the wrong timing; Longmont is the green
circle).  This pattern, although really nice, occurs at sunset and doesn't
last through the night to make the migrants end up here in CO with as high
of probability.  Here is what it looks like on Friday morning:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/08/19/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.93,52.84,1333/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle is Longmont.). The wind strength has weakened and the convergence
into Colorado is weaker, so we shouldn't expect a lot of movement overnight
that ends up in CO, but it is worth a glance on Friday morning to see what
has come in.

As usual, if you have questions, please ask.  I am here to be your guide to
weather and migration.

Happy migration to you!
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO
-- 
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Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Look out for Limpkins

2022-06-28 Thread Bryan Guarente
Backing up Nathan's mention of Limpkins in weird places... I have to talk
about the weather pattern that seems to be bringing these birds inland.
Take a look at the many links I have below.  The green circle in each of
the maps is the location of the Limpkin sighting. You may start to notice
an average pattern for Limpkin inland wandering.

Tom, OK Limpkin (first sighting April 21, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/04/21/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-95.903,36.224

Tulsa, OK Limpkin (first sighting May 10, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/10/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-95.9005058,36.223

Fayetteville, AR Limpkin (first sighting May 18, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/18/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-94.065,36.053

Eastern KS Limpkin (first sighting June 2, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/06/02/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-94.743,38.287

   - Probably showed up May 31st:
   
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/31/1300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-94.743,38.287

Amarillo, TX Limpkin (first sighting June 21, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/06/21/2100Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-100.872,35.211

Chariton, IA Limpkin (first sighting June 22, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/06/22/1300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-93.355,40.985

   - probably showed up the previous day --
   
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/06/21/2000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-93.355,40.985

Omaha, NE Limpkin (first sighting June 23, 2022)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/06/23/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-96.169,41.145

   - probably shower up two days prior --
   
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/06/21/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-92.10,36.02,1885/loc=-96.169,41.145

The pattern seems to be a strong high pressure system in the southeast US
(very large scale clockwise wind flow pattern) and usually a frontal
passage right on top of the Limpkin location.  This pattern gives a
connection to FL (typical Limpkin locale) and provides a concentration
point at the frontal passage.  If you have read my posts or my journal
article, you would see that this is a similar thing that we are looking for
at other times of year for any migrant.  Find the convergence location with
a nice swath of connection to a source region, you can get different
birds.  ALL of the links above have that same pattern except for May 10.

It is hard for that type of high pressure system to setup far enough west
to get CO its Limpkin, but I am sure it can happen sometime. Keep your eyes
peeled like Nathan suggests, especially if you start to see a pattern like
what you see above.  Maybe July 2nd is a possible day for Limpkin in CO (I
am not making any guarantees):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/07/03/0300Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-101.62,36.28,1885/loc=-103.371,37.114

Keep your eyes open!
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Jun 24, 2022 at 10:53 AM Nathan Pieplow  wrote:

> An unprecedented wave of Limpkins is sweeping north and west from the Gulf
> Coast. Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa have all had their first state records in
> recent days. One showed up in the Texas Panhandle east of Amarillo, less
> than 200 miles from Colorado.
>
> This would be a great time to search for Colorado's first state record
> around water bodies, swampy spots, and well-watered riparian areas such as
> Two Buttes, Thurston Reservoir, Van's Marsh, and the west end of John
> Martin Reservoir, just to name a few.
>
> Nathan Pieplow
> Boulder
>
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[cobirds] Migration Forecast: 5/20-5/22 (CFO Convention edition)

2022-05-19 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
*Overnight 5/19 into 5/20 morning:*
Start with right now from the time of this writing (10pm Thursday night):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/20/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle is Longmont, CO)

The migration chances right now are poor and they will get poorer for most
of CO.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/20/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle is Longmont, CO)

The winds in three of the four quadrants of CO have a northerly component
(either NW, N, or NE) which is highly unconducive for migration.

The exception to the above rule is SW CO.  For much of SW CO, the winds
will be out of the SW (weak, but still having a southerly component).  So
expect some typical SW US migrants into SW CO.

*5/20 noon:*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/20/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
Circle is Pueblo, CO where the CFO convention is)

The chances are getting better for migrants to move in southern CO
overall.  The flavor should still be SW US migrants, not eastern migrants.
The best convergence is into Canon City, CO approximately.  So if you are
one of the lucky ones going to Canon City on a field trip from the
convention, keep your eyes peeled as migrants should be moving during the
daytime hours.

*5/20 evening:*
Let the snow/precipitation begin!  This is where the forecast gets more
meteorologically interesting, but less so ornithologically-interesting.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/21/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo; color shading is precipitation amounts)

*5/21 morning (best for birders, worst for birds):*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=precip_3hr/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo; color shading is precipitation amounts)

So the struggle will be real for a lot of birds out there, especially the
insectivores and ground feeders.  With wet snow falling as far south as
Pueblo (0-2") and upwards of 18" of snow along the I-70 corridor, a LOT of
birds will be searching for food anywhere that food is present. They will
also likely be descending to lower elevations to find food.  Desperate
times are coming.  If you find the food, you find the birds on this day.
These are the storms that drive MASSIVE numbers of swallows from the
mountain reservoirs down to the lower elevation reservoirs looking for
insects.  I don't believe this is the type of storm system that will bring
Longspurs to the roadsides unless there are already Longspurs present.
Keep your eyes on your feeders, keep your ears peeled for something
different in the neighborhood.  It is likely.

*5/21 evening:*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/22/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo)
And then we are all cut off again from migration.  Birds that were around
are staying put and searching for food.  Keep your feeders full or find the
food sources and you will find the birds.  No particular place will be
amazing unless there is an amazing food source.

*5/22 morning:*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo)
There will be movement overnight, unfortunately, it will be to move the
birds that are present out of town.  On the east slope, front range, and
eastern plains, the winds turned to southerly, but not to the south of our
location.  So it is time for an exodus.

*5/22 Noon:*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/22/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo)
And it keeps opening up for birds to leave, but not be replaced.

*5/22 Evening:*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/23/0400Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo)
The connection to Mexico is back.  Finally we will be connected to Veracruz
again and we should see some migrants from afar.  But unfortunately, there
isn't a long-term convergence point in CO where they will be obviously
clustered.  Overnight, the winds open up to more of a flow into WY and MT.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/23/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2208/loc=-104.609,38.254
(Green
circle is Pueblo)

So Monday will bring you some new birds on the eastern slope of CO.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Snowy Plover - Union Res

2022-05-06 Thread Bryan Guarente
Snowy Plover still present at 675 house at 7:35pm.

Bryan

On Fri, May 6, 2022 at 2:29 PM John Vanderpoel <
jvanderp...@peregrinevideo.com> wrote:

> Todd Deininger and I have a Snowy Plover on the north shore of Union
> Reservoir.  Use the mailbox “675” as a reference point.
>
> John Vanderpoel
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
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-- 
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Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration weather: 5/4

2022-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
After today’s north to northwest winds, we started coming back around to
southerlies that connect us once again to Mexico (Veracruz area), but this
time with less precipitation impeding the pathway from further south.

>From nightfall:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/04/0200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.02,39.61,774/loc=-105.019,39.614

Through to sun-up tomorrow morning:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/04/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.02,39.61,774/loc=-105.019,39.614
(Green circle is Littleton)

The pattern looks good for migrants to show up from Pueblo (coming from NM)
to Cheyenne (coming more from Veracruz). Keep your eyes peeled for new
birds to make their way to us and have most of the birds that are currently
here stick around.

Then there isn’t a good push of migrants possible until after the COBC. So
that means find the birds that are around now, learn where they are hanging
out, then take advantage of those birds in your big day plans.

May 7th 6am (COBC day at sun-up)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/07/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.02,39.61,774/loc=-105.019,39.614

Enjoy tomorrow if you can get out. Keep me posted with any data points
whether you consider those data good or bad. All data is good data.

Thanks.
Bryan


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Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Re: Migration weather: next two days (5/1 - 5/2)

2022-05-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
Wow!  Right now (6am) on 5/1, there is what looks like a large mass of
birds on the Pueblo radar headed northwest. If you are El Paso or Pueblo
counties, get out near the gray oval of possible birds and see what you can
find:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=PUX-N0Q-0-96-100-usa-rad. This
link is best viewed from a desktop computer not a mobile web browser.

Note this is a live updating link so if you click it too long after this
email, you may not see the gray oval headed northwest.

Exciting times!

Bryan

On Sat, Apr 30, 2022 at 12:23 PM Bryan Guarente 
wrote:

> COBirders,
> An astute weather-watcher asked what it was going to look like for birds
> with the next system coming in. They were ahead of my thinking for sure
> (darn work getting in the way of fun).
>
> *5/1 SE CO will see a connection from the Yucatan*
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/01/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-100.03,32.69,1951/loc=-103.708,37.700
>  (Green
> circle is south of La Junta)
>
> That map is quite telling of all of the overnight hours tonight.  That
> pattern doesn't look much different if you spend some time flipping through
> the times available on the wind maps from sundown tonight to sun-up
> tomorrow.  So this is a long duration convergence pattern which is a GREAT
> thing for SE CO.  Anywhere from Pueblo to Lamar (better towards Lamar than
> Pueblo) could see some great movements into the area overnight.  I also
> don't expect anything to leave the area from previous days, so we could see
> a large diversity of birds (even higher than already going on).  For the
> rest of CO tomorrow (Sunday), there won't be much movement of passerines
> overnight.  Expect though that this will change throughout the day on
> Sunday.  The connection from the Yucatan actually opens up throughout the
> day tomorrow and the northern Front Range gets in on the action!
>
> *5/2 Northern Front Range gets connected to the Yucatan*
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-98.23,34.96,1951/loc=-105.120,40.191
>  (Green
> circle in Longmont for reference)
>
> I expect that the northern Front Range will be the target on Monday after
> SE CO's good chances.  The problem with Monday is the chance of rain
> throughout the area.  This will make the birding maybe a bit more hit or
> miss location-wise.  But that won't likely matter too much because the
> birds WILL be on the move.  It may just be hard to guess the exact location
> of the best birding Monday morning due to the possible rain.  But, get out
> there and find the best spots and let everyone else know.  We'll be
> watching.
>
> Now, this actually brings up another point.  With the chance of rain, this
> will mean the cloud cover will be lower, so overnight migrant listening
> might be really good for CO standards.  Low cloud cover drives the birds to
> be lower towards the ground, making calls easier to hear, and with the
> winds coming from the Yucatan, we have a good chance of getting some good
> night flight calls as long as it isn't raining where you are.
>
> And finally, if you haven't believed me for all these years, or you need
> more supporting information, you can check out birdcast's new "Migration
> Dashboard" for every county and state in the US.
> https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/migration-dashboard/. This brand
> new website shows you estimated numbers of birds from real-time radar data
> over your county or state of choice.  Enter your county or state into the
> text field and press "Search".  This will take you to a page where you can
> monitor the radar-estimated bird counts over your area.  There is a nice
> archive to dig through as well to see how migration has been playing out
> recently compared to historical numbers.  This page has been quite
> instructive over the past couple weeks since it went live.  If you want to
> see more about the dashboard you can check out the recorded webcast about
> the new dashboard here:
> https://academy.allaboutbirds.org/live-event/the-birdcast-dashboard-live-radar-tracking-of-bird-migration-in-your-county-and-state/
>
> May the winds be ever in your (and the birds') favor.
> Bryan
>
-- 
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration weather: next two days (5/1 - 5/2)

2022-04-30 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
An astute weather-watcher asked what it was going to look like for birds
with the next system coming in. They were ahead of my thinking for sure
(darn work getting in the way of fun).

*5/1 SE CO will see a connection from the Yucatan*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/01/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-100.03,32.69,1951/loc=-103.708,37.700
(Green
circle is south of La Junta)

That map is quite telling of all of the overnight hours tonight.  That
pattern doesn't look much different if you spend some time flipping through
the times available on the wind maps from sundown tonight to sun-up
tomorrow.  So this is a long duration convergence pattern which is a GREAT
thing for SE CO.  Anywhere from Pueblo to Lamar (better towards Lamar than
Pueblo) could see some great movements into the area overnight.  I also
don't expect anything to leave the area from previous days, so we could see
a large diversity of birds (even higher than already going on).  For the
rest of CO tomorrow (Sunday), there won't be much movement of passerines
overnight.  Expect though that this will change throughout the day on
Sunday.  The connection from the Yucatan actually opens up throughout the
day tomorrow and the northern Front Range gets in on the action!

*5/2 Northern Front Range gets connected to the Yucatan*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/05/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-98.23,34.96,1951/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle in Longmont for reference)

I expect that the northern Front Range will be the target on Monday after
SE CO's good chances.  The problem with Monday is the chance of rain
throughout the area.  This will make the birding maybe a bit more hit or
miss location-wise.  But that won't likely matter too much because the
birds WILL be on the move.  It may just be hard to guess the exact location
of the best birding Monday morning due to the possible rain.  But, get out
there and find the best spots and let everyone else know.  We'll be
watching.

Now, this actually brings up another point.  With the chance of rain, this
will mean the cloud cover will be lower, so overnight migrant listening
might be really good for CO standards.  Low cloud cover drives the birds to
be lower towards the ground, making calls easier to hear, and with the
winds coming from the Yucatan, we have a good chance of getting some good
night flight calls as long as it isn't raining where you are.

And finally, if you haven't believed me for all these years, or you need
more supporting information, you can check out birdcast's new "Migration
Dashboard" for every county and state in the US.
https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/migration-dashboard/. This brand new
website shows you estimated numbers of birds from real-time radar data over
your county or state of choice.  Enter your county or state into the text
field and press "Search".  This will take you to a page where you can
monitor the radar-estimated bird counts over your area.  There is a nice
archive to dig through as well to see how migration has been playing out
recently compared to historical numbers.  This page has been quite
instructive over the past couple weeks since it went live.  If you want to
see more about the dashboard you can check out the recorded webcast about
the new dashboard here:
https://academy.allaboutbirds.org/live-event/the-birdcast-dashboard-live-radar-tracking-of-bird-migration-in-your-county-and-state/

May the winds be ever in your (and the birds') favor.
Bryan

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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Expect Movement Monday and Tuesday

2022-04-10 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirds,
It's been a while since I have made one of these posts, but it looks like
it is finally time to post again.  Monday and Tuesday of this week look
like they will include generalized pushes of birds into CO and WY from the
Southwest US.  Southeastern CO may see some Gulf migrants from the SE
direction.

If you hit the "earth" button in the bottom left of the linked pages for
more options you can add your location to the map to help with map
referencing: compass arrow on the "Control" row of buttons.  You can also
switch times if you want to control that for yourself.

*At noon on Monday*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/04/11/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2136/loc=-105.120,40.191
(green
circle is Longmont, CO)

   - *West of the Divide*: The connection of the SW winds to the Southwest
   US should mean a nice push of migrants with no specific convergent end
   point.  Expect to see more migrants, not necessarily anything particularly
   rare, just the usual migrants making a nice run at covering some distance.
   - *East of the Divide: *The connection to long-distance migrants just
   isn't there on the eastern portion of the state at this time.  Expect
   short-distance migrants and probably some raptor movement.

*12 hours later (Tuesday at midnight)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/04/12/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2136/loc=-107.210,40.763
(Best
convergence pattern in CO at the Green Circle)

   - *West of the Divide: *The pattern on the West Slope hasn't changed
   much except for adding some convergence on a line from Grand Junction
   through Craig, up to the CO/WY border.  This looks like the best area for
   bird convergence and thus increased diversity and numbers around the state
   at this time.
   - *East of the Divide: *The connection to long-distance migration has
   now been made.  There are multiple weak convergence lines on the Eastern
   Plains that will cause some increases in bird density, but the final
   destination for those birds is likely into WY as there is nothing to stop
   them from continuing on that path.

*6 hours later (Tuesday morning at 6am)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/04/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2136/loc=-108.364,37.407
(Best
west slope convergence in CO at the Green Circle near slightly east of
Cortez).

   - *West of the Divide: *The northwest corner of the state has been
   cut-off from migration at this time, so the migrant convergence was
   short-lived but there may be some new birds in the northwest of the state.
   The rest of the west slope is still open for business though so expect a
   nice push throughout the morning and into day.  The above map is around
   sun-up, so this is likely the time that the night migrants will put down
   and the best convergence is near Cortez, CO.  There may be a weak frontal
   passage at the time as well which is a good indication for birds stopping
   their migration at this location.
   - *East of the Divide: *At this time, the entire eastern Plains and
   Foothills of CO are open for general movement of birds, with no particular
   convergence within CO.  Expect the Southwestern US migrants at this point.

*6 hours later (Tuesday at noon)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/04/12/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2136/loc=-105.120,40.191
(Green
circle back in Longmont)

   - *West of the Divide: *Now the entire west slope is cut off from
   migration as the winds are now entirely out of the NW.
   - *East of the Divide: *The green circle of Longmont is right at the
   cold frontal passage on the eastern Plains/Foothills.  The winds to the
   south and east of the front are running parallel to the front, so the
   convergence isn't enhanced much for making a specific migrant trap better
   than any other.

*6 hours later (Tuesday 6pm)*
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2022/04/13/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2136/loc=-105.120,40.191

   - *All of CO: *We're all cut off from migrants at this point since the
   winds are either westerly or northwesterly for the majority of the state
   and the backward trajectories don't point to good migrant source regions
   for this time of year.

So the message overall is, if you are in SW CO near Cortez/Durango on
Tuesday morning, keep your eyes peeled for more diversity and increased
numbers.  If you are on the east slope, you have as good a chance as anyone
else in getting migrants on Tuesday morning.  Nowhere specific will be
favored by the weather.  Remember Dave Leatherman's mantra though, "find
the food and find the birds."

Hope this helps you net some good birds over the next couple days.  Keep me
honest by reporting new birds and nothing new and no changes.  All data is
useful in that regard.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Forecast for Monday/Tuesday October 11-12

2021-10-08 Thread Bryan Guarente
It is getting interesting in the weather realm coming early next week. Late
Monday into Tuesday, we are expecting winds from the SW then switching to
the SE from a great distance away (Mexico and southern Texas). It is days
like these in Fall when the unexpected show up (Fork-Tailed Flycatcher,
Tropical Kingbird, Painted Redstart, etc., or something less interesting
than that but still noteworthy/rare). This is a strong southerly push:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/10/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-100.32,40.77,949/loc=-105.120,40.191
(green circle is Longmont; Tuesday at 6am)

Better convergence is occurring in WY, but CO should see a nice probability
of something rare.

Note that this is different than what you would normally see me predicting
(normally birds from the north in Fall). If sometime on Monday into Tuesday
you see something out of the corner of your eye and you thought it could be
out of the ordinary, but doubted yourself, please take the time to look at
it again.

Wednesday when the winds turn out of the north, we are relatively cut off
from long-distance migrants from the north. So don’t expect a huge shift
with high concentrations of lots of species, but definitely expect some
seasonally-relevant turnover.

Best of luck out there if you go searching,
Bryan




-- 
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Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Update (9/29)

2021-09-29 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
Not much to report from this cold frontal passage.  It is a shallow blast
from close-by and the convergence pattern is not good for birds to stop
over in CO.  Yes, we will see new birds today compared to yesterday that
will undoubtedly be migrants.  No, there is not a single birding location
in CO that looks like it is going to be the greatest benefactor of the
winds.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,2061/loc=-105.120,40.191
(9am
9/29; green circle is Longmont, CO)

Keep your eyes peeled as there will be different birds today and you might
be lucky enough to find the one or two in your area that are rarities.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Migration Weather: Thursday Sept 2 through Friday Sept 3

2021-09-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
Steve,
I didn’t particularly think today was going to be good. Tomorrow is a
better chance by a bunch. Birdcast, for clarity, is about whether there
will be birds seen on radar. It is not necessarily about where the birds
will land so be careful with that assessment. Birdcast certainly has its
place in the conservation world and can inform the birding world (if those
are different). My forecasts are a different role than what Birdcast offers
and both, I believe, are beneficial just to different audiences.

Good luck tomorrow.
Bryan

On Thu, Sep 2, 2021 at 11:36 AM Steven Brown  wrote:

> For what it is worth…. I checked Birdcast this morning pre-dawn, and was
> getting excited for banding possibilities at Clear Spring Ranch (El Paso
> Co). It was a dud. Maybe my slowest September day ever at CSR.
>
> Few Chipping Sparrows (none netted), fewer warblers. Netted 8 birds all
> morning - banded 3, saw 2 more warblers. I DID band a young Red-eyed Vireo,
> and a Hatch-year Dusky Flycatcher, but it was SLOW.  The big events for the
> day were - (1) 500+ Common Grackles flushed from a field in one giant flock
> by a Prairie Falcon, and (2) 22 Western Kingbirds lining the fence on the
> way out - my second biggest arrival of those ever.
>
> Hoping for more this weekend -
> Steve Brown
> Colo Spgs
>
> On Sep 2, 2021, at 6:23 AM, Bryan Guarente 
> wrote:
>
> COBirders,
> This morning, the cloud cover is relatively low, and I am sitting out on
> the patio right at sun-up to see if there are any birds calling while they
> are passing by.  No luck so far, but the winds aren't great for migration
> yet.  The day is young though.  Right now, the pattern looks like this:
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/09/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.61,45.45,2061/loc=-105.120,40.191
>  (green
> circle is Longmont, CO)
>
>
> Best of luck out there.  May the birds concentrate in your area one day.
> Bryan
>
> Bryan Guarente
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
> UCAR/The COMET Program
> Boulder, CO
>
>
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Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Thursday Sept 2 through Friday Sept 3

2021-09-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
This morning, the cloud cover is relatively low, and I am sitting out on
the patio right at sun-up to see if there are any birds calling while they
are passing by.  No luck so far, but the winds aren't great for migration
yet.  The day is young though.  Right now, the pattern looks like this:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/09/02/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.61,45.45,2061/loc=-105.120,40.191
(green
circle is Longmont, CO)

*NOTE: feel free to move the green circle to your location by adding your
latitude and longitude to the URL.  After the "loc=", remove my longitude
and latitude, add your longitude and latitude into that space making sure
negative longitudes are "west".  Boulder, CO is right around 105W longitude
which converts to -105.  Baseline Rd (named that for a reason) in Boulder
is 40˚N which just converts to 40.  "loc=-105,40" will then be centered
right near Boulder.*

I have north winds overhead (but not at the surface), but the gates aren't
opened for migration yet today.  Migrants are likely only short-range, if
that.  Let's fast-forward to later: 9am
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/09/02/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.61,45.45,2061/loc=-105.120,40.191

There is now a better connection to the large-scale northerly flow from
Canada and the big cut-off low-pressure system up north (big spinning
circle of streamlines).  Move forward in time a bit more: 6pm
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/09/03/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.61,45.45,2061/loc=-105.120,40.191

The connection is now more obvious and the flow of migrants should be quite
possible.  This is why Birdcast <https://birdcast.info/>/Aeroecolab
<https://aeroecolab.com/uslights> forecasts are starting to light up with
migrants as Diana Beatty pointed us to on CFO's Facebook page yesterday.

As the frontal passage continues to move on to the east (KS, NE, SD, MN),
our winds end up n some nice concentrating patterns.  Map from 6am on the
3rd:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/09/03/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-108.61,45.45,2061/loc=-105.120,40.191

The big winners (in CO) seem to be in southeastern CO.  My initial click
around the map pinpointing the location I was forecasting highest
concentrations was just south of John Martin Reservoir.  So Lamar, John
Martin Reservoir, and environs around that should be in for a good push and
concentrations of migrants.  As Mark Peterson pointed out the other day
with his Hale Crossroads observations, concentrations can happen along
these northerly wind patterns where there is good habitat (even in small
pockets), so if you are below the concentrating northerly winds get out for
a quick look around that may turn into a long look around and some good
migrants from Canada or anywhere along the path those winds took to get
here.

Best of luck out there.  May the birds concentrate in your area one day.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Cold Frontal Passage (8/28)

2021-08-28 Thread Bryan Guarente
CObirders,
Tonight, on the Front Range of CO, expect a cold frontal passage around
sun-down (depending on your location). Here is what that looks like in
850mb winds at 6pm this evening (green circle is Longmont, CO)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/29/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-98.48,41.12,712/loc=-105.120,40.191

With that passage, I expect to see turnover of the birds already being seen
today. I don’t expect many of the goodies to stick around with the passage
of this front, but if the food source is good, birds can stick around
longer to fuel up.

It isn’t just about birds leaving the area though, I expect to see a nice
for this time of year push of migrants. Birds won’t be coming from very far
away with this specific push (Montana seems to be the origin or our winds),
but we’ll see what comes with it. Here is a good representation of the
origin of the winds for this coming push (map is for midnight; green circle
is Longmont, CO):

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/29/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-99.91,47.44,712/loc=-105.120,40.191

The front is going to stall out overnight, which is great for birders near
the location of the frontal stall. Here is a good representation of where
the front is going to stall (4am map; green circle is between Walsenburg
and La Junta)

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/08/29/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.86,38.28,1207/loc=-103.904,37.565

Those of you birding in that area on Sunday have a nice chance for a build
up/convergence of migrants. There is a good chance this includes Pueblo,
any playas between Pueblo and Kit Carson, and possibly out toward John
Martin and NeeNoshe reservoirs too depending on where the front really ends
up stalling. David Tønnessen is leading a shorebird field trip out there
tomorrow for CFO Shorebirds Workshop, so best of luck to them and anyone
else going that direction.

If anyone heads that direction tomorrow, try to find places where the winds
are generally from the north rather than the south and you will be on the
correct side of the front for migrants. Local effects from lakes can alter
the wind field, so try to pay attention to the winds away from the lakes,
not right next to them.

Get out tomorrow to enjoy the birds and slightly cooler weather. We won’t
be free from the smoke, but the cooler temperatures should make for happier
birding conditions (cooler birders, *less* water shimmer, but still
present). If you are right near the front tomorrow, you might expect some
showers later in the day.

Enjoy the cooler temperatures and lovely migrants.
Bryan


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UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Bug question

2021-06-26 Thread Bryan Guarente
Ira,
To not take this too far outside of the realm of birds for too long, this
looks like a moth i. The genus *Harrisina*. You can see some more info here:
https://www.inaturalist.org/taxa/126906-Harrisina?locale=en-US

I suggest you grab the app called iNaturalist. With this you can insert
your photos and it will suggest what it believes the photo is of. It works
surprisingly well for everything from trees/plants to birds to herps to
insects and fungi.

Bryan

On Sat, Jun 26, 2021 at 7:51 PM Ira Sanders  wrote:

> Birders
> Attached is a photo of a flying bug. It's black with a little orange.
>  I realize it's not a bird question but we have delved into bugs before
> like black witches so I thought I would give this a shot.
>  Does anyone know what it is?
> Ira Sanders
> Golden
>
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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Rocky Ford/La Junta/Las Animas Area

2021-05-10 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
Short note, it looks like the overnight flow is directing birds toward the
Rocky Ford/La Junta/Las Animas area tonight with some moderate
convergence.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/05/11/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-98.50,29.02,2203/loc=-103.239,37.185
(6am
Tuesday; green circle is around Kim, CO)

I state Rocky Ford/La Junta/Las Animas as an area with multiple hotspots
around it to check.  But in reality, it is a line of convergence from
Clayton, NM through Yoder, CO with a stronger convergence on the south side
of that line than on the north side and a good chance of increased
convergence between Kim, CO and Rocky Ford, CO.  Anywhere to the east of
that is fair game too depending on how good the model has a handle on this
system.  Again the further south you go the better the chances are for
increased bird convergence.

Overall, there is nice 850mb flow from the south that should bring in birds
to that area.  The origin of these winds is likely near the Yucatan
peninsula.

Best of luck if you run out there tomorrow.  Sorry for the late notice.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Hudsonian Godwits and the Weather Pattern

2021-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
 these birds
in the morning.  They may not last long after that though as the winds pick
up and give a nice south wind for these birds to migrate on.

So when is the next chance of anything in CO?  It looks like May 5th there
is a small push of migrants in the southeast.  I would suggest a rectangle
from Cheyenne Wells south to Lamar,  west to John Martin Reservoir, and
north to Kit Carson.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/05/05/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.64,34.64,2728/loc=-102.370,38.802
(Green circle is Cheyenne Wells, CO)

Hope you enjoyed this and get a chance to see the Hudsonian Godwits like
the 76 observers who reported to eBird today from Lagerman Reservoir
(compare that to three the day before).

And lastly, if you are thinking ahead to the weekend and the CO Birding
Challenge, check out the first look at Saturday's forecast winds:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/05/08/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.64,39.77,5329

Any guesses where the best location to go birding will be?

Ask questions, be curious, and keep the reports coming.  Migration and
weather are slowly unravelling this year's mysteries of movement.

Rambling email concluded.

See ya in the field,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] FOS Say's Phoebes, Boulder County

2021-03-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
Glad to hear there are Say's Phoebes on the move.  These are right on time
and it jives well with the weather pattern.

Range map for Say's Phoebe in Jan-Feb:
https://ebird.org/map/saypho?neg=true=113.27196160017343=-23.42144599315466=23.271961600173423=79.10123789325878=true=false=Z=on=1=2=all=1900=2021

Note the maxima of observations as well as the general pattern of where
these birds would originate to make it to Colorado, then look at the
following wind map:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/20/2300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-99.58,38.86,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000

The green circle on the wind map is Boulder, CO.  Makes good sense why
there would be Say's Phoebes coming to town these past two days.
Here is the map for the 19th that makes the most sense for this movement.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/19/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-99.58,38.86,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000

Interestingly, maybe the birds from the 19th came from Texas, but the birds
from the 20th are more likely from a different location in the SW US.

There were also a few different odds and ends showing up today that are
noteworthy weather-wise: Sagebrush Sparrow makes some interesting sense
with the Southwest origin, Common Grackles are advancing farther north,
Double-crested Cormorants are showing up in Boulder county, American White
Pelicans are found in droves, Sandhill Cranes are passing through, and
Osprey are making their first of the season appearances.

Thanks for the postings, it made me look harder at the situation.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Sat, Mar 20, 2021 at 5:03 PM Jared Del Rosso 
wrote:

> Yesterday afternoon (3/19), I opened my door to one singing in the top of
> a neighbors' cottonwood (Centennial, Arapahoe County). My first of the
> season, as well.
>
> - Jared Del Rosso
> Centennial, CO
> On Saturday, March 20, 2021 at 3:55:57 PM UTC-6 dsud...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>> Two *Say's Phoebe's* arrived singing at St. Mary Church along S. Prince
>> in Littleton today, too, Arapahoe Co
>>
>> David Suddjian
>> Ken Caryl Valley
>> Littleton, CO
>>
>> On Sat, Mar 20, 2021 at 3:27 PM Gary Brower  wrote:
>>
>>> In walking through Cherry Creek State Park this morning, I saw *my* first
>>> Say’s Phoebe of the season as well!  (And a Western Meadowlark!)
>>>
>>> Gary Brower
>>> Unincorporated Arapahoe County
>>>
>>> On Mar 20, 2021, at 3:24 PM, Charles Hundertmark 
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> When I opened my garage door to head out birding this morning, I heard a
>>> Say’s Phoebe singing down the street. The bird was at a house where it has
>>> held territory for many years now. A short time later, along Boulder Creel
>>> near 75th Street, another Say’s was singing on a territory also held for
>>> many years. Fascinating synchronicity of arrival.
>>>
>>> Chuck Hundertmark
>>> Lafayette, CO
>>>
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Re: [cobirds] Re: Migration Weather Forecast -- Major Weekend Storm

2021-03-13 Thread Bryan Guarente
Camille (and likely others),
earth.nullschool.net can be set to "current" mode or "now" mode by clicking
on the "Earth" button in the bottom left, then in the row labelled
"Control" there is the  button that says "Now".  That is your button to set
the webpage to your computer's current time.  Note that you will need to
press "Now" if you haven't looked at the site in an hour or two as it
doesn't auto-update (last time I checked).

The data plotted on this page is from the Global Forecast System (GFS)
model run by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).  That
data is not meant to be "current" conditions or to replace observations, it
is meant to model what the atmosphere might be doing at that time.  It is
relatively accurate but you should understand that small-scale variations
in wind patterns (as an example only) can be very different.  The GFS model
has a coarse resolution, so there is plenty of room for variation within
the 13km resolution of the model.  Expect that the model will get the
larger picture patterns correct, but the smaller scale patterns may be less
accurate.  This is a great model to use for looking at the overall
conditions around the globe and thus why it is used on this website.

If you want to see the actual observations of the atmosphere, I can point
you to some of those.  There are plenty of sites out there to offer that
information as well.  It just isn't in as nice of a format for most people
to take in.

Thanks for asking Camille,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Sat, Mar 13, 2021 at 11:34 AM Camille Schiraldi 
wrote:

> How can I set up this wind map, so I can check out current conditions at
> any given time & place.  TIA
>
> On Friday, March 12, 2021 at 1:34:53 PM UTC-7 Bryan Guarente wrote:
>
>> Cobirders,
>> The northern portion of the state is in for some wild snow amounts
>> (depending on who you believe).  With this, we are looking at some very
>> nice swaths of southerly winds (example below):
>>
>> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/13/0100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000
>>  (forecast
>> for 6pm tonight; green circle is around Boulder, CO).  That link should
>> also be about the time that we should expect migrants to be taking off from
>> Texas and further south.  For those of you who are radar enthusiasts for
>> bird tracking, check the radar
>> <https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-comp_radar-48-0-100-1=map=undefined>
>> after dark in Texas to see if the birds are leaving as suggested.
>>
>> On those winds, I expect to see some migrants push further northward as
>> this is one of those times where birds are starting to want to move north
>> and this IS a good opportunity despite the snow we will get this far
>> north.  This is a time to be efficient and cover some ground/sky.  I expect
>> to see increases and FOYs in:
>>
>>- Blue-winged Teals,
>>- Eared and Horned Grebes (maybe the beginnings of Western Grebes),
>>- yellowlegs (Greater) and Killdeer with maybe some early sandpipers,
>>- Sandhill Cranes,
>>- Bonaparte's and Franklin's Gulls,
>>- Double-crested Cormorants,
>>- Turkey Vultures and possibly the first migrant Osprey and/or
>>Swainson's Hawks,
>>- White-throated Swifts, Tree Swallows, and Barn Swallows
>>- Say's Phoebes,
>>- and Common Grackles.
>>
>> If you want to see a really good swath of winds converging into a single
>> location, look no further than this map:
>>
>> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/13/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000
>> .
>> Looks like in the vicinity of Boulder, CO will be a nice hotspot tomorrow
>> morning.  As the day goes on the convergence into Boulder disperses and
>> more of the northern Urban corridor will get in on the action:
>>
>> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/14/0100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000
>>  (5pm
>> Saturday)
>>
>> I'll leave it here for now and see what others are able to find as the
>> days roll onward.  I am headed out here in a minute to get my binocs on
>> some of these migrants before the snow starts.  Best of luck out there.
>>
>> Keep your feeders full, be careful shoveling (if you are the lucky ones
>> who are getting snow), keep your ears peeled for Sandhills in the snow, and
>> wear your masks,
>>
>> Bryan
>>
>> Bryan Guarente
>> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
>> UCAR/The

[cobirds] Migration Weather Forecast -- Major Weekend Storm

2021-03-12 Thread Bryan Guarente
Cobirders,
The northern portion of the state is in for some wild snow amounts
(depending on who you believe).  With this, we are looking at some very
nice swaths of southerly winds (example below):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/13/0100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000
(forecast
for 6pm tonight; green circle is around Boulder, CO).  That link should
also be about the time that we should expect migrants to be taking off from
Texas and further south.  For those of you who are radar enthusiasts for
bird tracking, check the radar
<https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-comp_radar-48-0-100-1=map=undefined>
after dark in Texas to see if the birds are leaving as suggested.

On those winds, I expect to see some migrants push further northward as
this is one of those times where birds are starting to want to move north
and this IS a good opportunity despite the snow we will get this far
north.  This is a time to be efficient and cover some ground/sky.  I expect
to see increases and FOYs in:

   - Blue-winged Teals,
   - Eared and Horned Grebes (maybe the beginnings of Western Grebes),
   - yellowlegs (Greater) and Killdeer with maybe some early sandpipers,
   - Sandhill Cranes,
   - Bonaparte's and Franklin's Gulls,
   - Double-crested Cormorants,
   - Turkey Vultures and possibly the first migrant Osprey and/or
   Swainson's Hawks,
   - White-throated Swifts, Tree Swallows, and Barn Swallows
   - Say's Phoebes,
   - and Common Grackles.

If you want to see a really good swath of winds converging into a single
location, look no further than this map:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/13/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000
.
Looks like in the vicinity of Boulder, CO will be a nice hotspot tomorrow
morning.  As the day goes on the convergence into Boulder disperses and
more of the northern Urban corridor will get in on the action:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/14/0100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-101.05,33.15,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000
(5pm
Saturday)

I'll leave it here for now and see what others are able to find as the days
roll onward.  I am headed out here in a minute to get my binocs on some of
these migrants before the snow starts.  Best of luck out there.

Keep your feeders full, be careful shoveling (if you are the lucky ones who
are getting snow), keep your ears peeled for Sandhills in the snow, and
wear your masks,

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather -- Have you seen the weekend forecast?

2021-03-08 Thread Bryan Guarente
*Too long didn't read (TL/DR)*: despite the possibility of snow this
weekend (and a good amount of it), we are in for some really nice wind
patterns that are quite conducive for migrants from Mexico/Texas.

*For those with more time on their hands*
Start here:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/11/1900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-103.83,37.33,1638/loc=-105,40

This is the 850mb winds (about 1 - 1.5km off the ground in places like SE
Texas and the Gulf of Mexico).  This map is for Noon on Thursday (NOT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS MOVEMENT!).  Take a look at the pattern you are seeing
there for "us" (Boulder is highlighted as a Green circle).  You can also
see the Colorado river and the Arkansas river nicely on the map for easier
reference.  The pattern looks open for migration, but nothing major and no
real concentrating factors are included in that pattern.

By clicking on the "Earth" button in the bottom left corner, you can bring
up a menu to navigate into the future further.  On the line in that menu
that starts with "Control" you can use the "<<   <>>>" buttons to
jump forward or backward in time.  The website creator has recently changed
the time jumps that are made with each button so keep track of that.  ">>"
is 8 hours into the future,  ">" is 1 hour into the future and the same for
going backwards in time.

Step through the times through Saturday and Sunday (if those times are
available to you when you read this post).  Watch the wind pattern change
dramatically and start to give us in Colorado a prolonged period of good
migrant conditions.  Over the next few days, you should do this same
process and see how the pattern looks to be changing.  This will dictate
where the best conditions will be for concentrating migrants and you will
see that it changes from day to day.

We may think of the standard quotation, "go birding in bad weather".  This
weather situation will most likely be one of those types of events
(expecting snow in Northern and Eastern Colorado from this and in some
places upwards of a foot or more snow [some uncertainty still remains, so
don't quote me on this]).  At certain times, the best convergence will be
more in northern Colorado from a long-distance migrant's perspective, but
later in the storm, it will likely be better conditions in southern
Colorado.  See if you can find the best spots and at which times.

If you are not quite understanding what I mean and need me to point you to
a much different time on the website that looks good for migrants, try this
one:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/03/12/1300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-103.83,37.33,1638/loc=-105.000,40.000

>From the green circle (Boulder, CO), track the winds backwards to an origin
region.  You should get somewhere in the vicinity of Veracruz, Mexico.  And
that is looking like it is going to happen for a good amount of time (6-12
hours or more depending on your tracking location).

Use Dave Leatherman's mentality if you go out on Friday, Saturday, or
Sunday.  Track where the good food sources are earlier in the week and then
go there on the weekend to see if new birds have shown up.  There is a good
chance they will in this storm system.  Lots of open flyways.

If I neglected to tell you something, or you wanted more info, please feel
free to ask.  Lots of people like these posts and want to read more about
the situations, but sometimes they are afraid to ask.  We are all learners
here (including me), so ask questions so everyone can learn.

See you out in the field over the weekend (wearing a mask or
socially-distancing).

Fill your feeders and good birding to you,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Winter Vagrancy Examples due to Weather (no sightings)

2021-02-13 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
It has been an interesting three weeks in the eastern provinces of Canada.
Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia have had an influx of Redwings
<https://www.audubon.org/field-guide/bird/redwing> (*Turdus iliacus*; the
European species, not the blackbirds we know and love).  There have been 6
different instances of Redwings spread across those three under-birded
provinces (eBird map of Redwings in North America
<https://ebird.org/map/redwin?neg=true=-76.05414250153214=38.24833580700198=-42.304142501532134=52.12793756350506=true=true=Z=1-12=1=12=all>).
Ornithologically, this is significant.  Meteorologically, this is also
significant.  The Polar Vortex has been mentioned in many circles recently
in relation to the cold we are feeling Friday through the weekend.  There
was a strong wobble in the polar vortex recently that led to a strongly
different pattern of winds over the North Atlantic Ocean.  This has caused
a long period where there have been relatively consistent *easterly* winds
from England/Iceland to the northeast reaches of North America.  This is
backwards from the normal pattern of westerly (from west to east) winds we
expect to see in the Mid-latitudes.

In all of the following web links, make sure you remember that this is on a
globe, so you will need to orient yourself appropriately to the
latitude/longitude lines to understand the winds.

Here's an example of the backwards pattern:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/01/27/1100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-29.90,55.54,835

Sighting #1 showed up in New Brunswick for a two hour period then
disappeared (1/21).
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/01/20/2000Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-30.97,52.95,835
.

Sighting #2: showed up in Newfoundland on 1/25 in St John's:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/01/24/1900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-30.97,52.95,835

Sighting #3: showed up in Newfoundland on 1/29 in Stephensville:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/01/28/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-30.97,52.95,835
This one makes meteorological sense, but it isn't a strong case.  I am
guessing this one was already local and showed up to where someone reported
it.

Sighting #4: showed up in Maine on 2/1:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/01/31/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-30.97,52.95,835.
This one is another case of possible dispersion to somewhere that it was
reported at a later date than when it probably showed up.  But we are still
in the same type of weather pattern with winds out of Iceland/England which
would dictate some movements like this if a bird leaves those
island nations.

Sighting #5: showed up in Wolfville, Nova Scotia on 2/3:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/02/02/1900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-30.97,52.95,835.
This is a more typical winter pattern for the North Atlantic and NE North
America.  This seems to be a wandering of one of the birds already in North
America in my mind.  The wind pattern was NOT conducive for more Redwings
to be coming to this side of the pond.

Sighting #6 and #7: showed up on the same day (2/12) in Crystal Crescent
Beach, Nova Scotia and in Crow Neck Beach, Nova Scotia:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/02/12/0500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-30.97,52.95,835

And as a weird side note, there has also been a Redwing that showed up in
Victoria, British Columbia yesterday (2/12) as well.  There are two
subspecies of Redwing (*T.i.iliacus and T.i.coburni*).  If these birds are
identified to subspecies, it would be interesting to see if the British
Columbia bird is of the *coburni *subspecies as that one breeds in Iceland
and winters in far western Europe as opposed to the mainland Eurasia
subspecies *T. i. iliacus*.  Either subspecies is possible in the
US/Canada, but the *coburni *subspecies would be exceptional in British
Columbia and would lead one to believe that this bird likely crossed the
entirety of the Atlantic, THEN all of Canada to reach the B.C. coast.  It
isn't that likely from the wind pattern, but possible.  It is much more
likely that the B.C. bird is of the other subspecies and likely came from
Asia rather than Europe.

Hopefully this was fun arm-chair birding while it is cold out.  If there
are any questions about this, please ask.  This is a fun time to explore
old records and dig in on winter vagrants.

Good birding to you,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] McIntosh Lake Carolina Wren and Gulls: Boulder County

2021-02-05 Thread Bryan Guarente
I stopped by McIntosh Lake (NW Longmont, Boulder County) this morning on my
way to Rabbit Mountain.  The lake is mostly open.  On the ice shelf, there
were few gulls, but the diversity was quite high for the numbers.  I ended
up with:

Ring-billed Gull (31)
Herring Gull (4 adults; 1 juvenile; 1 likely hybrid with Herring in the mix)
California Gull (1 adult)
Lesser-black Backed Gull (1 adult)
Iceland (Thayer's) Gull (1 adult)
possible (low probability) Mew Gull (1; which I never got a good look of
the head/beak to confirm and it was distant)

The best bird of the day though for me was a twice-calling CAROLINA WREN
somewhere near the western intersection of Lakeview Circle and
Lakeshore Drive on the SW side of the lake.  The bird was somewhere
southeast of the western end of Lakeview Circle.  I drove Lakeview looking
for it, but came up empty.  The call I heard was the descending trill call
that I remember from my childhood in PA.  I am certain it was a Carolina
Wren and not a mimic of any kind.  The first call I heard took me right
back to PA, and the second call I knew it had to be Carolina Wren.  In
2012, there was a Carolina Wren in this area that wasn't proven to be
chaseable (or at least inconsistent), but I wish you luck if you do go
looking.  I will stop by every so often to see if I hear it again.

If you need any more info, let me know, and I will be glad to help.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Re: Northern Parula in December

2020-12-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
Gregg and others,
I would love to hear whether the Parula and Pine Warbler stuck around after
the cold frontal passage last night.  I doubt the temperatures would be the
problem.  The snow could cause food gathering issues.  The winds are
appropriate for migration southward, but I don't know whether the "need" to
migrate is still there.  Hormonally, There must be a point in every bird
that they don't feel like they need to migrate anymore.  These birds will
be interesting case studies from both the perspective of Dave Leatherman
and from Bryan "Weatherman".  Bad joke... moving on.

Keep us informed.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Wed, Dec 2, 2020 at 2:04 AM Brandon  wrote:

> Pueblo County is up to 17 species of warblers now thst have been seen
> during December to February.  Pretty amazing total.  Most have been since
> the 1990s.
>
> Brandon K. Percival
> Pueblo West, CO
>
> Sent from my Android
>
> On Tue, Dec 1, 2020, 6:44 PM Gregg Goodrich 
> wrote:
>
>> There are no previous December eBird records of Northern Parula in the
>> Denver/Fort Collins area until today December 1st, 2020. The Chatfield bird
>> was seen and photographed today. The Springs, Pueblo, Pitkin Cnty and
>> Garfield Cnty have had December records. It will get down to around 20
>> degrees tonight with chance of snow. Wonder if it will be here tomorrow.
>>
>> Gregg Goodrich
>> Highlands Ranch
>>
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>>
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Re: [cobirds] Frigatebird at John Martin

2020-11-05 Thread Bryan Guarente
Nick,
I cannot be certain about this bird because it is a mixture of a soaring
bird and a direct flight bird.  Like you are saying Nick, it is likely that
it will be headed NNE on the current winds.  If it is flying in a direct
flight all night, it could easily end up at Lake Superior.  If instead it
is choosing to navigate in soaring flight, we would have a very different
story.  Also, because this bird is so far afield from where it should be
and it doesn't make meteorological sense why this bird would be here, I am
not confident in saying what this bird is going to do.  I appreciate the
challenge, and it is tough to even communicate this appropriately because
of all the uncertainty that surrounds this bird.

Thanks for pushing me though.  I like the way you are thinking about this.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Thu, Nov 5, 2020 at 9:09 PM Nicholas Komar  wrote:

> Bryan Guarente, can you predict where the Frigatebird will be by morning?
> Looks like upper level winds are headed north by northeast, so I’m guessing
> Lake McConnaghy or further north. I’ll be checking Boyd Lake and Horsetooth
> Reservoir first thing here in Larimer.
>
> Nick Komar
> Fort Collins CO
>
> On Nov 5, 2020, at 8:36 PM, Brandon  wrote:
>
> 
> Yes, the photos are good for a female Magnificent Frigatebird.  9:30am was
> when the first photos were taken. Congrats to the 5 birders who got to see
> it, I know 4 of them and saw them today, and they were all very excited.
>
> Brandon Percival
> Pueblo West, CO
>
> On Thu, Nov 5, 2020, 8:29 PM Sebastian Patti 
> wrote:
>
>> Magnificent???
>>
>> There is a SPECIMEN of Great Frigatebird from Oklahoma . . .
>>
>> sebastianpa...@hotmail.com
>> Sebastian T. Patti
>> 770 S. Grand Avenue
>> Unit 3088
>> Los Angeles, CA 90017
>> CELL: 773/304-7488
>>
>> --
>> *From:* cobirds@googlegroups.com  on behalf of
>> Brandon 
>> *Sent:* Thursday, November 5, 2020 8:23 PM
>> *Cc:* Colorado Birds 
>> *Subject:* Re: [cobirds] Frigatebird at John Martin
>>
>> The bird was last seen at 2:35pm, by 4 birders at John Martin Reservoir.
>> It was flying high, and possibly to the west.  Many birders arrived around
>> 3pm and after, and watched until dark.  Maybe it will be 100 miles west of
>> John Martin Reservoir tomorrow morning, I know a reservoir that will be
>> checked.
>>
>> Brandon Percival
>> Pueblo West, CO
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Nov 5, 2020 at 12:29 PM willc...@gmail.com 
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hi All,
>>
>> I don't want to step on the observers toes, but there was a Magnificent
>> Frigatebird photographed at john martin reservoir today, apparently over
>> the dam. Hopefully some people can make it there and see it before sunset!
>>
>> Will Anderson
>> Boulder
>>
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Re: [cobirds] tell it to me straight.... finding a Lapland Longspur

2020-10-29 Thread Bryan Guarente
Ron,
For any of the longspurs in winter, it is best to learn their calls and
rattle calls (not their songs).  When a flock of Horned Larks takes to the
air, they love to vocalize.  Same is true of the Longspurs.  The rattle
calls of Longspurs are quite distinctive from Horned Larks and that is how
I normally get my Longspurs in winter.

*Lapland Longspurs from Colorado:*
>From Nathan Pieplow:

   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/17814  <https://www.xeno-canto.org/17814>
   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/17815
   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/17816

>From Sue Riffe:

   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/461823
   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/450539

*It is worthwhile then to know what Horned Lark calls sound like too:*
>From Sue Riffe:

   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/313073 (Ignore the Western Meadowlark Call)

>From Ted Floyd:

   - https://www.xeno-canto.org/354538 (a nice flock doing what they love
   to do)

To me that is the way to win at the Longspur game, especially in winter
when your teeth are rattling like Longspur calls.

Best of luck,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Thu, Oct 29, 2020 at 11:37 AM Susan Rosine  wrote:

> Haha, I'm not always patient either, so I get it.
> Honest answer, these little guys can be so difficult! I usually see them
> with Horned Larks. If you go up to the Pawnee Grasslands you can find them
> NOT with larks, and in larger numbers.
> I usually find them along the sides of dirt roads, either on the ground or
> on a fence.
> They are a tough bird, so I wish you luckand patience!
> Susan Rosine
> Brighton, Adams County
>
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[cobirds] Migration Weather Forecast... when is the next chance?

2020-10-29 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
I had a chance to look at the weather a little this morning to make a
migration weather forecast.  I also noticed that the website that I use,
and hopefully you are using more now, has been updated with a new user
interface.  This is great news for mobile device users as it is much more
intuitive and useful on mobile now.  For desktop users, this has given some
more clarity to the buttons and makes the loading faster.  Check it out:
earth.nullshool.net

The key thing you need to still do is change the wind altitude to 850hPa
(not ideal for CO as we would want higher, but the best we can do on this
site).  To do so, you still click on the "earth" button in the bottom left
corner and scroll through the menus to find the 850hPa button.

To navigate through time on this page, you can use the "<<   <   >   >>"
section of the menu.  Those correspond to -1 day, -3 hours, +3 hours,
and +1 day.  You'll need that for my challenge.

Since the passerine migrants are mostly done aside from the northern
migrant sparrows, we have been in a slow trickle with what I am guessing is
mostly altitudinal migrants, but there have also been some surprises
recently that may be wanderers from around the area that we hadn't detected
yet (Little Gull and Scoters were the surprises to me).  OR these birds
could have migrated in less-than-ideal conditions based on the weather.  OR
I am/we are looking at computer models which are inherently slightly flawed
due to our inability to fully model the atmospheric intricacies.  OR I
could be missing part of the big picture of migration and weather patterns.

*And now for the challenge for those that have read this far...*

   - *Using earth.nullschool.net <http://earth.nullschool.net>, when do you
   think we will see our next more obvious push of migrants in the Front Range
   of CO?  *
   - *For bonus points, where along the Front Range will they see the best
   concentrations of birds according to the forecasted winds?*
   - *For double bonus points, what do you think those migrants could be?*

Email me directly with answers, or if you are feeling bold, reply to this
thread on COBirds so we can all learn from your answers, our mistakes, and
the ensuing conversations.

Thanks to those of you who wish to play along, and thanks to those of you
who keep egging me on happily.  I appreciate all the kind words you are
throwing my way when I send these emails out.  It makes it worth it to just
hear from each of you about your experiences and enjoyment of birding.

Best in birding,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Turning Over Migrants Thursday Oct 22

2020-10-21 Thread Bryan Guarente
With the frontal passage expected tomorrow morning around sun-up, expect
that the migrant turnover will be in full swing.  The birds that are ready
to move out at this time of year will make a strong push southward on the
north winds expected tomorrow morning with the cold frontal passage.
Behind the front, we are initially limited in terms of the number of new
long-distance migrants we should be expecting.

October 22 6am:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704/loc=-105.116,40.193

Note that the winds aren't originating from that far away from CO.

Then as the day goes on we should expect a change in the migrants we could
expect.

October 22 12pm:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/22/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704/loc=-105.116,40.193

By noon, we should be linked up with the stronger push of migrants from the
north winds.  Looks more like migrants from Great Bear Lake as possible
origins.  I am hoping for a first push of the northern gulls and maybe a
jaeger if you get lucky.

Best of luck if you go out tomorrow.  I keep thinking about an analysis of
the Ruddy Ground Dove situation, but haven't had the time yet.

Thanks for any reports tomorrow.
Bryan
<https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/22/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704/loc=-105.116,40.193>

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Fallout of White-throated Sparrows and Hermit Thrushes, Eastern Boulder County, Oct. 18

2020-10-19 Thread Bryan Guarente
*Why did we see an influx of birds on this date?*
It looks like the frontal passage is the culprit for these birds showing up
in CO.  Had a nice cold frontal passage that led to our low-clouds,
drizzle, increased humidity, and subdued winds (great for fire
suppression).

Green circle on map is Waneka Lake, Boulder County.  The timing of this map
is 6am on Sunday October 18th.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/18/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.19,43.51,1704/loc=-105.113,39.993

*Why White-throated Sparrows (WTSP) and Hermit Thrushes (HETH)?*
The maybe more interesting question is why WTSP and HETH?

*WTSP Breeding Range: *
https://ebird.org/map/whtspa?neg=true=177.70969904467137=-17.73544803981251=41.47923029467137=80.19231910329214=true=false=Z=6-7=6=7=all=1900=2020

*HETH Breeding Range: *
https://ebird.org/map/herthr?neg=true=177.70969904467137=-17.73544803981251=41.47923029467137=80.19231910329214=true=false=Z=6-7=6=7=all=1900=2020

Based on the wind origin point from the previous map, it would make some
sense that any birds that ended up in CO from this weather pattern would
have come from MT.  But maybe a better bet would be to go back in time to
when these birds would have originally taken off from the origin point.
This usually starts to happen on the night before right around dusk.  Dusk
the night before was ~6pm October 17th.  So here is the map (with Waneka
Lake at the green circle) that would help us answer that question:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/18/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.26,48.86,1704/loc=-105.113,39.993

If you backtrack the winds from Waneka Lake to their origin, you get
something much more consistent with WTSP or HETH breeding ranges.  We end
up around Great Slave Lake
<https://www.google.com/maps/place/Great+Slave+Lake,+Northwest+Territories,+Canada/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x53c510b3183723ed:0xe7be6f9dd1d40bca?sa=X=2ahUKEwj87NKzmsHsAhWJ4J4KHTofBuMQ8gEwJnoECCUQAQ>
in
the Northwest Territories.  Anywhere along that backtracked streamline
would be ripe for WTSP or HETH departure from the breeding grounds (I know
it isn't breeding season anymore, it was an easier reference point
though).  It also makes better sense from a bar chart perspective to get
WTSP or HETH instead of something like Blackpoll Warbler, which shares the
same origin point, but has already likely finished its migration through
Colorado.

Fun to play with all this logic.  Hope it comes across understandably to
most of you.  If there are any questions you would like to pose to me for
clarification, I am always open for discussion on this.  Happy to be
involved and educate on the topic.

The next forecasted frontal passage is due for Tuesday at around 6pm
(depending on your location in CO), but it will be weak and poorly timed
for bird migrations.  Expect some birds to leave on the north winds on
Tuesday evening, but I am doubting much replacement of birds in CO from
behind that front.  The convergence looks better from this front in IA/IL.

Thanks for the thought experiment.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Mon, Oct 19, 2020 at 8:35 AM tedfl...@gmail.com 
wrote:

>
>
> On Sunday, October 18, 2020 at 10:39:29 PM UTC-6 pato... wrote:
>
>>
>> This morning, Sunday Oct. 18, I had a first eBird record of a
>> White-throated Sparrow in the four Denver City Park hotspots outside of the
>> Denver Zoo.
>> It was in a loose flock of sparrows, juncos and chickadees that flew over
>> the zoo fence, so it was actually in both places.
>> And BTW, YOU had the last previous WTSP sighting in the zoo back in
>> February 2016.
>>
>
> On the occasion of Super Bowl 50, no less!
>
> Protip: The best time to visit the zoo is when the home team is in the
> Super Bowl. The staff felt so bad for us, they gave us free rein of the
> entire facility. It was an unforgettable experience, with some pretty
> amazing birds and wildlife:
>
> https://blog.aba.org/2016/03/birding-at-the-zoo.html
>
> Ted Floyd
> Lafayette, Boulder County
>
> P. s. Another protip: Might have to wait a few more years before the home
> team is in the Super Bowl...
>
>
>
>>> --
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[cobirds] Terry Lake (Boulder County)

2020-10-14 Thread Bryan Guarente
Not a long visit, but saw over 250 American White Pelicans (maybe more like
400), 6 young Bald Eagles, and over 200 dabbling ducks. The kicker here is
none of these birds were evident when I drove by 10 minutes before that.
There were still birds dropping in when I left. Water levels are seriously
low.

Maybe, ok you know me better than that, certainly this would have to do
with the cold front that blasted through this afternoon.

Good birding.
Bryan
-- 
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Not all cold fronts are created equally...

2020-10-11 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
I got some responses to my inquiry about what this next cold front might
bring.  Nobody thought this was going to be bringing Canadian, Mexican, or
eastern migrants to CO.  Most responses suggested that the birds in place
right now would move out with the passage.  Those responses seemed to be
more about altitudinal migrants though including my corvid question.  My
favorite response was that we should expect murrelets!  It's a wonderful
thought, but I am highly doubtful of a movement of murrelets into our
location from this flow pattern. However, that does bring up a good point
about where this cold front is coming from.

The idea that murrelets were suggested is likely because this front is
coming from the Pacific.  Winds are coming from the west with this system.
This is a different type of cold frontal passage for us in CO.  They happen
more in winter than in fall like we will experience today.  Birds that
could move this direction would likely be migrants moving southward along
the West Coast at this time of year but following the wind patterns inland
instead of along the coast because these are going to be quite strong
winds.  This is one of the hardest sets of migrants to get to show up in
CO.  The Rockies do a great job of blocking migrants from coming this way.
So I am not expecting much of a change in migrants with this frontal
passage.

I also believe that some of the altitudinal migrants that come into our
area at this time of year might make their numbers more well known (juncos
for instance).  Get out before the winds blast us later today if you want
to get your birding in.

If you are hoping for northern migrants, look no further than Thursday of
this week:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/15/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105.113,40.203.
Northern migrants should be flooding the eastern 2/3rds of the US.  I might
get a chance to write again before then, but my time is limited this week,
so this is your fair warning.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Sat, Oct 10, 2020 at 7:57 PM Dave Hyde  wrote:

> Hi Bryan – I expect the three White-crowned sparrows that have been
> enjoying the free lunch here near Storm Mountain in Larimer County since
> Oct 1st to be gone by Monday! I think the juncos will remain, though. :)
> - Dave Hyde, Larimer Cty.
>
>
>
> Sent from Mail <https://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/?LinkId=550986> for
> Windows 10
>
>
>
> *From: *Bryan Guarente 
> *Sent: *Saturday, October 10, 2020 1:32 PM
> *To: *Cobirds 
> *Subject: *[cobirds] Not all cold fronts are created equally...
>
>
>
> COBirders,
>
> There is a cold front coming through tomorrow.  I think if you were to ask
> COBirders whether a cold front meant good birds in Fall or not, I think
> most would say yes, especially if the front comes with precipitation.  Go
> birding in bad weather!
>
>
>
> On the East slope, tomorrow's cold front won't be wet nor cold, just
> cooler with some cloud cover.  On the West slope, it will be a different
> story in terms of precipitation.  Definitely expecting precipitation.
> Hopefully this will help with some of the wildfire situations.
>
>
>
> So today, I am going to try something different.  Here is the forecast
> graphic for tomorrow after the frontal passage (map is from 3pm local
> time).  If you were at my CFO presentation the other day, you would know
> some of the things to look for in terms of good weather for migrants.  Does
> this look like it will be a good day to get long-distance migrants from
> Canada?  Should we expect dispersing migrants affected by Hurricane Delta?
> Should we be thinking about tropical species coming up from Mexico and the
> southwest US?  Where do you see the flow pattern coming from that would
> dictate the birds we might expect?
>
>
>
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/11/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105,40
>
>
>
> The green circle on that map is around Boulder, CO.  Anyone want to play
> along and give your weather forecast for migrants based on this map?  Are
> you expecting turnover of birds?  Are you expecting most birds to stay put,
> but add other species to the mix with the frontal passage?  Is this going
> to be the pattern that drives even more corvids out onto the Plains?
>
> Harder challenge: anyone want to venture a guess about what birds to
> expect based on the flow pattern?
>
>
>
> All of the previous questions will be answered by the weather and the
> birds tomorrow into Monday, but I will wrap up some thoughts later this
> evening based on what folks have stated to me privately (paraphrased or
> summarized only) and publicly, plus some of my own words to help move th

[cobirds] Not all cold fronts are created equally...

2020-10-10 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
There is a cold front coming through tomorrow.  I think if you were to ask
COBirders whether a cold front meant good birds in Fall or not, I think
most would say yes, especially if the front comes with precipitation.  Go
birding in bad weather!

On the East slope, tomorrow's cold front won't be wet nor cold, just cooler
with some cloud cover.  On the West slope, it will be a different story in
terms of precipitation.  Definitely expecting precipitation.  Hopefully
this will help with some of the wildfire situations.

So today, I am going to try something different.  Here is the forecast
graphic for tomorrow after the frontal passage (map is from 3pm local
time).  If you were at my CFO presentation the other day, you would know
some of the things to look for in terms of good weather for migrants.  Does
this look like it will be a good day to get long-distance migrants from
Canada?  Should we expect dispersing migrants affected by Hurricane Delta?
Should we be thinking about tropical species coming up from Mexico and the
southwest US?  Where do you see the flow pattern coming from that would
dictate the birds we might expect?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/11/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105,40

The green circle on that map is around Boulder, CO.  Anyone want to play
along and give your weather forecast for migrants based on this map?  Are
you expecting turnover of birds?  Are you expecting most birds to stay put,
but add other species to the mix with the frontal passage?  Is this going
to be the pattern that drives even more corvids out onto the Plains?

Harder challenge: anyone want to venture a guess about what birds to expect
based on the flow pattern?

All of the previous questions will be answered by the weather and the birds
tomorrow into Monday, but I will wrap up some thoughts later this evening
based on what folks have stated to me privately (paraphrased or summarized
only) and publicly, plus some of my own words to help move the conversation
along.

Thanks for playing along,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Sunday Nocturnal Migrants

2020-09-27 Thread Bryan Guarente
With low cloud-cover, and north winds aloft, it makes for a good night to
get out and listen for migrants.  It may not be that you hear anything,
with the winds muffling your ability to hear, but this is one of those rare
chances to get fall migrants in CO overnight because of low clouds and
north winds aloft.

This doesn't mean to expect great birds tomorrow morning, this just means
that conditions are correct in this case for birds to be low enough to the
ground that you may be able to hear them overnight.

At least put your head out the door and see if you hear anything, then run
from the cold back into bed.

Hope someone gets out to listen for a bit.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Re: Migration Weather: Sunday Forecast

2020-09-27 Thread Bryan Guarente
Thank you Donna for the report. This kind of information is really great to
hear about. Knowing the shift in species numbers as well as individual
numbers is very good to know. Congrats on your lifer.

The difference in the change from the south side of the lake to the north
side might be meteorologically driven. It can depend on the wind direction,
but not always. The habitat can also play an important role.

Thanks
Bryan

On Sun, Sep 27, 2020 at 11:19 AM Donna Stumpp 
wrote:

> I have to share how dramatic the change in bird numbers and number of
> species present was this morning at Standley Lake's Loon Lake (on the
> northeast end of the Standley Lake Open Space in Jeffco). Loon Lake has had
> species counts under 10 for many weeks. This morning I had 17, including a
> juvenile Cedar Waxwing! I bird this pond several times a week and have
> never seen one here before. Also, the sheer number of birds was about 8-10x
> higher than it's been in a long time and there was a tremendous amount of
> singing and activity. It was so fun!
>
> I finally dragged myself away and moved on to the north shore, where I
> found a Tennessee Warbler - lifer! Not quite the dramatic increase in birds
> on the norht shore as at Loon Lake, but still a good variety. Location
> details and photos of the TEWA are in the eBird checklist
> <https://ebird.org/checklist/S74129278>
>
> Thank you so much for sharing these weather events with CO Birds.
>
> Donna Stumpp
> Westminster, Jeffco
>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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>
> --
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Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Sunday Forecast

2020-09-26 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
It looks like Sunday morning should bring some stronger turnover of birds
with a concentrating wind pattern into the Front Range of CO from Boulder
south through Pueblo right up against the mountains/foothills.

There will likely be turnover occurring in the rest of eastern CO, but no
major convergence of winds aside from along the front itself as it passes
your location.  Expect turnover with no specific concentrations of migrants.

When the second cold front comes through on Sunday, expect the pattern to
change to more of a pass-through event instead of concentration and
stopover.  So get out earlier rather than later to find what you can along
the Front Range.

Report what you see, no matter how significant or insignificant.  All data
is good data, even null events.

Best of luck out there.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather: Labor Day Holiday Migration Gift

2020-09-04 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
What a great way to kick these forecasts off for the season!

It may be too early to wish you a happy Labor Day, but there is a good
possibility of a migratory gift on Monday September 7th. You may think I
have my days wrong and that the gift should be coming on Tuesday with the
snow (!), but the winds are forecast to be better on Monday than they are
on Tuesday for bird migration into the Front Range.  Tuesday may still be a
good day to get out (Go Birding in Bad Weather), but Monday looks better
for the winds to concentrate birds into our Front Range/Eastern Slope area
(Go Birding in the Right Weather).  Sorry West Slope folks.

COVID disclaimer: don't put yourself or others at risk.  Because of the way
this pattern is, there is no one place that looks best aside from "along
the Front Range", so your chances could be just as good in your Front Range
backyard as it will be multiple hours from your house.

Let's get down to it...

Monday Morning (6am):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/07/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.79,50.66,1205/loc=-105,40
The winds at 850mb (near-surface in the Front Range) are originating from
WAY north and will have been doing the same for a day and a half; they just
weren't terminating in CO.  The nice turning from the north to an east wind
into the Front Range is starting to look pretty nice for anywhere along the
Front Range.  But wait... it gets better.

Monday Midday (12pm):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/07/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.79,50.66,1205/loc=-105,40
The winds now at 850mb are still from WAY up north and turn more into the
Front Range region (including WY) condensing a broader swath of the winds
into a smaller area of convergence.  This can only mean more concentrations
of birds over the daylight hours.  The best bets are from Cheyenne through
CO Springs.

Monday Evening (6pm):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/08/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.79,50.66,1205/loc=-105,40
And the winds continue with convergence that just keeps on giving.  An even
broader area of winds condensing into a smaller area.  Now it is Cheyenne
through Denver that looks better.  This is now 12 hours or more (depending
on how you count it) of convergence into the Front Range with a very long
swath from the north.  This is what you should be on the lookout for when
trying to make your own migration forecasts.  The convergence could be
better into one location, but at least this way everyone gets the chance at
good birds.

If you live in Denver or the close vicinity, wait for it though... (Tuesday
Midnight)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/08/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.79,50.66,1205/loc=-105.080,40.187
It gets better, but it is questionable how many birds will want to be
moving at this time since the rain/snow should be starting around this
time.  And then after this time, it starts to broaden in terms of
convergence into the Front Range area and we lose the nice wind direction
for migrants to even enter into CO from great distances away.

Not to be too predictive, but it seems like a really nice time for
extralimital shorebirds (Curlew Sandpiper? More Buff-Breasted Sandpipers,
but up against the mountains?) and could be good for the earlier jaegers
(Long-tailed).  Warbler and vireo turnover should be good.  Ducks could be
turning over too.  The summer residents will start making more of their way
south out of CO.  But let's not be too prescriptive, just go out birding as
the gift will keep on giving.  Even your backyard could be a great place to
go birding.

Tuesday will still likely have some of the same birds that have found a
good place to rest/eat.  And it could produce some more surprises that may
not have been found in the vast birding areas on Monday.  But it will
likely be rainy/snow making birding less appealing.  Let me clarify about
the Tuesday winds...
6am:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/08/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.79,50.66,1205/loc=-105.080,40.187
Winds are cut off from the very far north pathway.  And there seems to be
more of a passage over CO rather than a stop in CO.

12pm:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/08/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-107.79,50.66,1205/loc=-105.080,40.187
Pattern is done for most of CO.  It looks like NM will be seeing the best
pattern at this time, but they aren't seeing the benefits of the very far
north pathway being open.

So, I wish you a happy Labor Day early and hope you get the gift you have
been wanting... a holiday/day off from work AND good birding.  Let me know
how this lands on Monday or Tuesday by reporting anything and everything
you see.  All data is good data.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Printing eBird data?

2020-08-04 Thread Bryan Guarente
I have a solution, but it is complicated.  If you are using Chrome, Edge,
Opera, or Safari, this should work:

   1. Open the bar chart you are interested in printing.
   2. Open the Javascript Console (CTRL+SHIFT+C or CMD+SHIFT+C)
   3. In the new window that pops up, the second tab across the top of that
   window should be "console".  Click on console.
   4. In that tab, then you can paste in the following next to the greater
   than sign (>):

*$(".b1, .b2, .b3, .b4, .b5, .b6, .b7, .b8,
.b9").css("-webkit-print-color-adjust", "exact")*

Then print the document and you should get the bar chart.

Ask questions, because I am sure there will be some.

Thanks for the fun foray into fixing poor CSS/HTML
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Tue, Aug 4, 2020 at 1:28 PM Gary Brower  wrote:

> CoBirders. . .
>
> (Especially those with great knowledge of eBird!)
>
> I’m trying to print a collection of bar charts from eBird.  But all I am
> able to print is the name of the bird 9and the two little icons to the
> right of the species name).  The bar charts themselves do not print.
>
> Does anyone know what’s going on, and how to get around it? I’ve tried
> saving it to pdf, and that doesn’t work either.  The only thing that has
> worked has been taking screen shots . . . but that’s incredibly tedious.
>
> Thanks so much.
>
> Gary Brower
> Unincorporated Arapahoe County
>
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Re: [cobirds] Shorebirds: Lagerman Res. Boulder Cty

2020-07-26 Thread Bryan Guarente
Peter (and COBirds),
Why might it be that there were new migrants at Lagerman Reservoir this
morning?  And why might they be shorebirds from the Arctic Tundra?  If you
can't read through my thinly veiled questions, the answer is the wind
pattern.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.64,40.13,1820/loc=-105.110,40.203

Here are the 850mb winds from earth.nullschool.net to help you answer that
question.  If you follow the streamlines from Longmont (green circle)
backwards, you will get a sense of why there were shorebirds coming from
the Arctic Tundra into our area.  The winds converged over the Longmont
area.  To the south of Longmont, the winds were still pushing to the north,
while the winds north of Longmont were streaming in from the Arctic.  Makes
for a simple example of migrants driven by weather patterns.

As for another thought about dispersal of migrants from the south, with the
landfall of Hanna and the subsequent rainfall and impacts, you might want
to look for birds here in CO ahead of that system.  There is a large high
pressure system to the east that is driving Hanna inland as well as drawing
winds into southern CO from the south into Mexico.  This is the time of
year where we can start to see strange dispersals of rarities (Painted
Redstart comes to mind for me, but isn't likely from the current source
region of these winds).  So keep your eyes peeled for hurricane-driven
birds into CO, specifically the eastern slope from central to southern CO.

Thanks for the quick note.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Sun, Jul 26, 2020 at 9:42 AM Peter Burke  wrote:

> Good shorebirds at Lagerman Reservoir this morning including 18 Wilson’s
> Phalarope, several LB Dowitcher, and at least a dozen more peeps.
>
> Peter Burke
> Boulder
> --
>
>
>
> Peter Burke
>
> 7988 James Court Niwot, CO 80503
>
> (973) 214-0140
>
> Flickr <https://www.flickr.com/gp/pgburke/0scHt9>  LinkedIn
> <https://www.linkedin.com/in/pburke303/>
>
>
>
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> .
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Re: [cobirds] Re: Watson Lake warbler fallout, Larimer

2020-05-14 Thread Bryan Guarente
Caleb and others,
Based on the current weather patterns and those ahead of us until 3am
tomorrow morning look pretty good for these birds to stay put.  I cannot
guarantee that, but based on the patterns right now, it looks good for
continuing birds at this location and maybe even a few more birds tomorrow
morning with overnight winds giving a short swath of winds converging on
the area tonight.

Now, I need to state that depending on where the thunderstorms occur today,
this information could easily change.  There is a chance of thunderstorms
later today and that could move things around (both birds and the
forecast).

Best of luck,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Thu, May 14, 2020 at 11:01 AM Caleb A  wrote:

> It's days like these, when I really wish I had my driver's license. Good
> luck to all the chasers! Also, is it probable that these birds will stick
> around for the rest of the day and leave by night? If so, I may have a
> chance to get out there later.
> *The birds are happy, and so am I*
> *~Caleb Alons, Larimer County*
>
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Re: [cobirds] Lincoln's Sparrow? Need ID Help - west Centennial, Arapahoe County

2020-05-12 Thread Bryan Guarente
Good enough photos to do this analysis.  Looks good for a Lincoln's.  Has
fine streaking on the chest.  A bit of a yellow wash in the malar stripe
area and spilling a bit onto the chest.  Overall gray background on the
head with medium brown head and eye stripes.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 8:32 AM kevygudguy via Colorado Birds <
cobirds@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> Hello Fellow Birders,
>
> This little thing has been visiting my little townhouse yard near Holly
> and Arapahoe in west Centennial for about a week now.  I finally got a
> good-enough (I hope) picture of it to ask for identification help.  I think
> it's a Lincoln's Sparrow.  Photo attached.
>
> Keep Smilin',
> Kevin
>
> Sent from my Remington Rand Typewriter via my Rotary Dial Wall Phone
>
>
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Re: [cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Monday (May 11) Northern Front Range

2020-05-11 Thread Bryan Guarente
Great to hear Steven!  Glad you had a good morning, and I hope your day
continues in the same way.

Your intensification of birds into your area jives with what I saw up my
way in Longmont.  I didn't get anything particularly amazing but did get 50
species for the first time in one hotspot this year.  That was a jump of
about 13 species from my previous high species counts.  This is another way
of verifying migration and I think it is worth others noting their
experiences today.  Increases in the density of individuals (twice as many
yellow-rumped warblers as yesterday) or increased diversity of species (50
species instead of 37 in previous recent visits) can really show some great
data.  Not all days are going to be "rarity" days.

If you haven't emailed me directly and want to reach out to COBirds to let
us all know, that would be great to hear.  More data is a good thing even
if it means proving me wrong.  I am prepared for that reality.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Mon, May 11, 2020 at 12:17 PM Steven Rash  wrote:

> Bad weather, good birds wins again for us in SE Denver. We had 50 species
> at Overland Pond Park. This is 10 more species than our best effort to
> date, including 4 previously unreported birds for the hot spot. Highlights
> were a green-tailed towhee, female lark bunting, a common yellowthroat,
> lazuli bunting, and MacGillivray’s Warbler.
>
> Thanks again for the forecast!
>
> Steve Rash
> Denver Co.
>
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[cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Thursday May 7th

2020-05-06 Thread Bryan Guarente
The floodgates are open... but unfortunately, they are open all the way up
to Alberta/Saskatchewan over the next 6 hours and open to North Dakota over
the next 12 hours.  So we should see some serious turnover of birds.

Now (6pm May 6th)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/07/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.23,36.96,1966/loc=-105.077,40.187

6 hours out (midnight May 7th):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/07/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.23,36.96,1966/loc=-105.077,40.187

12 hours out (6am May 7th):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/07/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.23,36.96,1966/loc=-105.077,40.187

Note that the winds are from the south and going straight over us into more
northern states.  This is good for getting birds north, but maybe not as
good for concentrating birds into our area.  If there are new rare birds,
expect them to be spread out across the Front Range, not concentrated like
they had been today (May 6th) and yesterday (May 5th).

So the best thing to do on May 7th would be to stay home and hope for the
best in your local patch because birds have a chance of being anywhere.

*NOTE: My emails don't mean that you should go chasing things and
disobeying your counties/municipality's stay-at-homes orders.  *

Best of luck tomorrow.  I hope you get some new birds in your patch.  Let
me know about your data points by reporting to eBird or to COBIrds.

Bryan


Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Special Report: Hermit Warbler

2020-05-05 Thread Bryan Guarente
I need to congratulate Luke and Tracy Pheneger for finding the Hermit
Warbler in Melody Tempel Grove this morning!  Great find!  For me, this is
a great data point because bird migration in the Intermountain West is a
messy world.  This bird is a great data point!  Let's analyze some of the
times before now and see what we can find out about the appropriate wind
patterns aloft to produce Hermit Warblers in CO.  So again thanks to Luke
and Tracy Pheneger for finding the Hermit Warbler so I can write such a fun
post...

All but three Hermit Warbler records in Colorado happens in the last week
of April or the first two weeks of May.  This should lead you to look at
timing of Hermit Warbler migration, but also to ask the question (if I
haven't trained you well enough yet) of what makes these weeks interesting
for winds from Hermit Warbler territory?  I cannot answer that question
easily aside from analyzing what is currently happening to get this Hermit
Warbler into CO.

This warbler's story likely starts on May 3rd, but we cannot guarantee what
time, so here is a guess (feel free to look at the times around this too to
get an idea of what I mean):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/03/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220
(Green
Circle is Melody Tempel Grove for reference)

The winds over the Desert Southwest (not knowing exactly where this bird
originated from we can only generalize) are broadly southwest winds and end
up traveling into southern CO.  Over the next six hours, you can watch the
convergence of winds over SE CO to see that the SW winds are consistently
projecting into CO from the Southwest US. Let's watch this over time below
and I will walk you through what I see.

6pm Sunday:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/04/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220
Continued SW winds pointing into southern CO with a convergence zone SW of
Melody Tempel Grove

9pm Sunday:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/04/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220
Continued SW winds pointing into southern CO with a convergence zone now
*just* SW of Melody Tempel Grove

Midnight Monday:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/04/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220
At this time, there is likely a frontal passage near the surface that
likely grounds the bird due to northerly winds.

3am Monday:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/04/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220
At this time, assuming the numerical model is correct, there would now be a
solid convergence over Melody Tempel Grove and birds won't likely move from
this location as the lowest pressure is upon them.

6am Monday:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/04/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220
Continued Northerly winds holding the bird in place... and this pattern
continues through today (May 5th).

This pattern loosely continues until 6pm May 5th (this evening) where there
will be a mixture of northerly and southerly winds since the grove is right
under the convergence zone again.  This likely means VERY NICE conditions
at Melody Tempel Grove tomorrow May 6th.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/06/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220

Over the following forecasted 12 hours, it looks like the convergence moves
south of the Arkansas river into the Raton Mesa region of NM, but this
doesn't mean there won't have been the addition of birds in the overnight
hours.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/06/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-102.78,38.22,1325/loc=-102.780,38.220

So, if you are in SE CO, keep your eyes peeled for an injection of more
birds (and likely convergence of birders).  My prediction is this will get
better in terms of the density of birds at Melody Tempel Grove, or anywhere
along the Arkansas River.

With how many Arkansas River forecast convergence zones I have predicted so
far, no wonder the folks down there love April and May, and why lots of
birders travel that direction to find nice migrants.  Good luck down that
way!

NOTE: This email does not mean you should break any laws or restrictions
from your local governments.

Thanks and Great Find!
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Re: Hudsonian Godwits (2) at Lagerman Reservoir; Boulder County

2020-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
I have received comments about the poor photos of my reported Hudsonian
Godwits.  I have multiple highly-qualified sources saying these birds were
Marbled Godwits when scrutinizing the photos.  My feelings don't jive with
this, but the appropriate thing to do is call these birds "godwit sp." as I
have limited experience with Hudsonian Godwit, there are certain marks that
leave the birds uncertain and I should learn from the experience of
others.  Thus, I will be dropping the status of my Hudsonian Godwits on the
eBird checklist to godwit sp.

To summarize the thoughts of the experts, these birds were:

   1. Too large to be Hudsonian Godwits (should generally be the same size
   as the Willet in the photo).
   2. Back pattern on both birds were too speckled instead of more solidly
   colored like would be on Hudsonian.
   3. Molt pattern should be different on a Hudsonian Godwit as it would be
   in two stages of molt across its body while these birds were more uniform
   in molt.

To summarize my continuing nagging uncertainties:

   1. The lighter colored bird had some subtle rufous tones on the slightly
   striped belly which doesn't jive with Marbled Godwit.
   2. I haven't found Marbled Godwits (in-person or in photos) with as
   contrasting of a facial pattern (plain white supercilium and malar
   contrasting strongly with the eyestripe)
   3. The contrast between the head/neck and the body color was dramatic in
   person which doesn't match with Marbled Godwit which should be more uniform
   in tone all over.
   4. The darker bird I saw was darker rufous than is shown in the photo,
   but that can't ever be proven without better documentation.

As an aside/unprovable wrinkle, it is interesting to note the wind patterns
on Saturday for most of the day should have been pushing eastern birds
westward with a nice swath of winds coming up the standard Hudsonian Godwit
migration route (OK into KS) then peeling off westward into the Colorado
Front Range.  Check them out here:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/03/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-100.99,37.00,3000/loc=-105.071,40.180

This might also explain the multiple warblers being seen in Jeff Co today
(Black-throated Blue, Orange-crowned, Yellow-rumped, Wilson's, possible
Hooded) as well as the Scissor-tailed Flycatcher yesterday at Standley
Lake.  Lots of fun to think about.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Sun, May 3, 2020 at 6:26 AM Bryan Guarente 
wrote:

> No godwits this morning.  Turnover has been good in shorebirds. Keep
> checking but as of now, reports are all null.
>
> Bryan
>
> On Sat, May 2, 2020 at 8:52 PM Bryan Guarente 
> wrote:
>
>> My wife and I had a chance encounter this evening with two Hudsonian
>> Godwits on the NW side of Lagerman Reservoir.  Poor photos can be found in
>> the eBird checklist below.  Light was getting poor and the rains were
>> starting to build in, so hopefully the photos can prove something.  If the
>> photos can't prove anything, here is my description for good measure.
>>
>> Two godwits actively feeding with Willets.  Godwits were larger than the
>> willets by a couple of inches (made me wonder about the other godwit
>> species which are larger).  Strongly bi-colored, slightly upturned beak
>> (orange at the base, black halfway down and until tip; upturned beak rules
>> out Black-tailed Godwit).  Black legs.  Male had a strong white supercilium
>> and malar area which contrasted greatly with the grey-brown face.
>>
>> The female of the pair was strongly marked on the back (dark grey-brown
>> circles on an off-white background).  Female also had strong face pattern
>> with white supercilium and malar (ruling our Bar-tailed... but I sure
>> tried) that contrasted with the rest of gray/beige face.  Female had some
>> slightly darker rufous tones to the belly.
>>
>> Other shorebirds at the reservoir were:
>> 32 Long-billed Dowitchers
>> 3 Willets (Western)
>> 20 American Avocets
>> 3 Semi-palmated Sandpipers
>> 1 Greater Yellowlegs
>> 9 Wilson's Phalaropes
>> 4 Killdeer
>>
>> Full checklist and poor photos below.
>> https://ebird.org/checklist/S68290924
>>
>> Hopefully they stick around through the night and someone can get better
>> photos.  You are going to ask me what the winds say about whether this bird
>> will stick around... another email might be coming out in a minute about
>> that.
>>
>> Thanks
>> Bryan
>>
>> Bryan Guarente
>> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
>> UCAR/The COMET Program
>> Boulder, CO
>>
> --
> Bryan Guarente
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
> UCAR/The COMET Program
> Boulder, C

[cobirds] Re: Hudsonian Godwits (2) at Lagerman Reservoir; Boulder County

2020-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
No godwits this morning.  Turnover has been good in shorebirds. Keep
checking but as of now, reports are all null.

Bryan

On Sat, May 2, 2020 at 8:52 PM Bryan Guarente 
wrote:

> My wife and I had a chance encounter this evening with two Hudsonian
> Godwits on the NW side of Lagerman Reservoir.  Poor photos can be found in
> the eBird checklist below.  Light was getting poor and the rains were
> starting to build in, so hopefully the photos can prove something.  If the
> photos can't prove anything, here is my description for good measure.
>
> Two godwits actively feeding with Willets.  Godwits were larger than the
> willets by a couple of inches (made me wonder about the other godwit
> species which are larger).  Strongly bi-colored, slightly upturned beak
> (orange at the base, black halfway down and until tip; upturned beak rules
> out Black-tailed Godwit).  Black legs.  Male had a strong white supercilium
> and malar area which contrasted greatly with the grey-brown face.
>
> The female of the pair was strongly marked on the back (dark grey-brown
> circles on an off-white background).  Female also had strong face pattern
> with white supercilium and malar (ruling our Bar-tailed... but I sure
> tried) that contrasted with the rest of gray/beige face.  Female had some
> slightly darker rufous tones to the belly.
>
> Other shorebirds at the reservoir were:
> 32 Long-billed Dowitchers
> 3 Willets (Western)
> 20 American Avocets
> 3 Semi-palmated Sandpipers
> 1 Greater Yellowlegs
> 9 Wilson's Phalaropes
> 4 Killdeer
>
> Full checklist and poor photos below.
> https://ebird.org/checklist/S68290924
>
> Hopefully they stick around through the night and someone can get better
> photos.  You are going to ask me what the winds say about whether this bird
> will stick around... another email might be coming out in a minute about
> that.
>
> Thanks
> Bryan
>
> Bryan Guarente
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
> UCAR/The COMET Program
> Boulder, CO
>
-- 
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Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Sunday May 3rd

2020-05-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
*I urge readers to respect state and local restrictions on non-critical
travel... this weather advisory is meant to inform you about what might be
interesting birding areas for the next couple days.  If you live close to
these areas, feel free to bird hard from the comfort of your local patch.*

*Sunday Morning:* birds should be leaving the eastern Front Range tonight
into tomorrow morning on southerly winds, which means you should see some
turnover of birds (might not be good for Hudsonian Godwits [read my other
post]).  But there could be more coming in with the changeover, so keep
your eyes peeled.  The south winds are originating from the Arkansas River
area of Colorado, so expect some slight pushes northward of birds, but
maybe not far-flung migrants.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/03/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.36,37.52,2369/loc=-105.000,40.000
(Green
circle is Boulder for reference)

*Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday morning:* looks particularly good for
bringing in some birds to the Denver area as well as along the I-76
corridor up to NE CO (with some room for variation of that exact
convergence area).  There are even other areas to the south along the
Arkansas River that seem to be funneling birds into the evening hours.
This could mean good things for Monday morning.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/04/Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.36,37.52,2369/loc=-105.000,40.000
 (Green
circle is Boulder for reference)

Ask questions if you have any.  I was in a hurry to get this out, so ask
for clarification if needed.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Hudsonian Godwits (2) at Lagerman Reservoir; Boulder County

2020-05-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
My wife and I had a chance encounter this evening with two Hudsonian
Godwits on the NW side of Lagerman Reservoir.  Poor photos can be found in
the eBird checklist below.  Light was getting poor and the rains were
starting to build in, so hopefully the photos can prove something.  If the
photos can't prove anything, here is my description for good measure.

Two godwits actively feeding with Willets.  Godwits were larger than the
willets by a couple of inches (made me wonder about the other godwit
species which are larger).  Strongly bi-colored, slightly upturned beak
(orange at the base, black halfway down and until tip; upturned beak rules
out Black-tailed Godwit).  Black legs.  Male had a strong white supercilium
and malar area which contrasted greatly with the grey-brown face.

The female of the pair was strongly marked on the back (dark grey-brown
circles on an off-white background).  Female also had strong face pattern
with white supercilium and malar (ruling our Bar-tailed... but I sure
tried) that contrasted with the rest of gray/beige face.  Female had some
slightly darker rufous tones to the belly.

Other shorebirds at the reservoir were:
32 Long-billed Dowitchers
3 Willets (Western)
20 American Avocets
3 Semi-palmated Sandpipers
1 Greater Yellowlegs
9 Wilson's Phalaropes
4 Killdeer

Full checklist and poor photos below.
https://ebird.org/checklist/S68290924

Hopefully they stick around through the night and someone can get better
photos.  You are going to ask me what the winds say about whether this bird
will stick around... another email might be coming out in a minute about
that.

Thanks
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Saturday's small opening

2020-04-24 Thread Bryan Guarente
CoBirders,
If I haven't sent the birds your way yet, know that I am working on it...
give me a chance.  ;)

Saturday now has a small opening in the overnight hours from midnight
through 9am where migrants could get into the southeastern portions of CO
on some nicer southerly winds (FROM the south).  A probable convergence
area in an arc from Colorado City, through Pueblo, Rocky Ford, Las Animas,
and curving down toward Two Buttes Reservoir (north of Springfield) could
see some areas of slightly farther afield migrants coming in.  Expect
though that this prediction could be off by 10-40km in a north-south
direction (are you listening in Lamar?).

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/25/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.65,37.49,3000/loc=-103.473,37.869
(Green
circle is on Rocky Ford for reference)

The Rocky Ford location I have marked on the winds above is right along an
area of convergence that you can see somewhat clearly in the streamlines
(those moving wind lines).  Right over Rocky Ford (only an example location
on the convergence zone... could replace Rocky Ford with any of the other
names listed), you can see that the winds are converging (light winds from
the north and stronger winds from the south combining over that area).
This area of convergence is one of the things I look for in determining
where migrants might end converge due to weather patterns.

I'll post again about a Sunday forecast.  Things are changing a little bit,
and I'll keep you posted on it.

Best of luck if you get out there.  Prove me right or wrong.  I love
datapoints of all varieties.

Thanks for all the continued support and messages.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Staying put til Sunday

2020-04-22 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
I want to start by *thanking* everyone for the motivation to keep these
going.  The *positive feedback has been astounding and I appreciate it
greatly*.  I also want to thank those of you who have been reporting the
common birds and first of season birds.  They are the easier birds to find
and help us gain a better understanding of the impacts of the weather on
migrants.  The day-to-day movement of birds (not just rarities) is great
data to play with.  Patrick's report of Chipping Sparrows in his urban
Denver yard is a great little bit of excitement for him, and also a really
nice example of the forecasts working out.  Glad to also see the excitement
of getting a new yard bird in COVID times.  Good for you Patrick!

*Back to the weather: *We are in a pattern in the low-level and mid-level
winds where we should expect migrants to stay put at good food sources for
the next few days until Sunday (a ways off, so that forecast could
change).  Think like Dave Leatherman to find the good bird spots.  Find the
food, find the birds.

Winds are either out of the north or northwest holding off the northward
progress of migrants.  To be more birder-positive about it, the next few
days should hold the same birds you have been seeing, or if you need to go
slightly farther afield to get those other local birds, you have some
opportunity.  Thinking about Yellow-throated Vireos.

On Sunday, expect conditions to look a lot like what we saw on Tuesday
(this is a farther out forecast, so take it with more grains of salt).
Winds all day long passing straight through Colorado with no solid stopping
point.  Expect migrant turnover for most of that day.

9am Sunday winds (example of what to expect; green circle is Boulder [for
reference]):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105,40,1739/loc=-105.000,40.000


Note the southerly winds are better later in the day in eastern Colorado
for migrants, but still just pass-through.  Expect turnover to be high.
Maybe that means come back to the same spot a few times on that day if you
are passing by again.  On Tuesday of this week, at Lagerman Reservoir
outside of Longmont, there were Long-billed Curlews, then not, then
Dunlins, then not, and multiple varying sandpiper species throughout the
day.  This is part of what I mean by migrant turnover.

If you have any questions, let me know.  I am happy to answer them.

May the birds you want to see stick around for a while.  Get out there and
prove me right or wrong.  More data is better.  Thanks again for the
supportive emails.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Tuesday All Day

2020-04-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
Looks like tomorrow should be a good day for migrational turnover.  Expect
that birds from farther south will have a chance to migrate through the
area on stronger southerly winds (FROM the south) originating from OK/TX.
Unfortunately, there isn't a strong convergence zone that would help
condense the birds into certain locations. You can expect convergence of
birds nearer the foothills than farther east as the mountains act as a
natural convergence area when southeast winds are dominant.  This doesn't
preclude the fact that good habitat attracts birds better than bad
habitat.  So it can always be worthwhile to check your patch multiple times
on a day like tomorrow (4/21)

Yesterday (4/19) and today (4/20), the winds aloft have been very weak
promoting more soaring-bird migration but still allowing direct flight
migrations as well with less wind support to cover ground.  Tonight and
into most of tomorrow (4/21), expect the winds to be stronger aloft and
from the south for most of the day making for a stronger possibility of
turnover of birds.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.00,40,1897/loc=-105.00,40
(The
green circle is on Boulder for reference only)

I hope you can get a chance to get out (I know it is a work-day) for at
least a walk in your local patch.  You should have a nice opportunity for
some new birds (First-Of-Year/First-Of-Season), but they may not stick
around for long with continued south winds throughout the day into the
night unless your patch has good habitat and food.

May the meteorology bless you tomorrow with birds.  Remember positive and
negative data are both useful to help us understand the overall meshing
between bird migration and weather patterns, so let us know what happens
for you tomorrow.  Best of luck.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Weather Advisory: Friday Night

2020-04-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
*Southeast CO*
There is a small potential for movement tonight into SE CO (north to the
Arkansas River, west to the Rocky Mountains) in the 9 pm to 3 am hours, but
that flow pattern modifies after 3 am and birds should end up out into
Kansas once again since there is no longer wind convergence into the
Arkansas Valley.   This time period is a small window and it doesn't
support long-distance migrants, more just short hops of migrants (from New
Mexico or Texas).  You can expect minor turnover tonight in SE CO bringing
in more birds.

*CO north of the Arkansas River*
The winds will be out of the south, which sounds like it would be great for
migration.  In this case, it is good for migration, but birds leaving the
vicinity not coming into the vicinity.  The southerly flow pattern is cut
off by west winds converging into the Arkansas River valley.  So if there
is turnover of migrants with new birds coming into Northern CO, expect them
to be locals not distant migrants.

Hope this helps you find some birds.

Thanks for all the input recently and for the positive vibes,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Updated Migration Advisory: Wed Night into Thurs

2020-04-16 Thread Bryan Guarente
Steven,
The interesting things that you are noting are dataset problems in SE CO.
The closest radar (what birdcast is based on) is probably Pueblo (but the
radar is along the El Paso/Pueblo county borders).  The further away from a
radar you get, the higher up in the atmosphere you are and the less likely
you are to encounter birds since they like to fly about 1-1.5km above the
ground (if possible).  By the time you reach that far out on a radar beam,
you are usually 4-6km off the ground, so you are missing the bulk of the
birds if there are any.  The green dots on the birdcast map are where the
radars are, and you will see quite clearly that there aren't radars very
close to SE CO.

I love the folks at Cornell and appreciate what they are trying to do on a
localized scale with the radar data.  It is a great dataset for correlating
with local upticks in birds.  It isn't, however, a large-scale indicator of
bird movement.  They can only be reactive, not proactive to the weather
patterns.  Getting a deeper look into forecasting is what I am trying to
do.  I hope my forecasts can help in a different way than the birdcasts can.

Thanks for the info.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 7:31 AM Steven Rash  wrote:

> Bryan,
>
> The overnight Birdcast seems to agree with your prediction, though it
> looks like the bulk of the movement was full on northward. I bet there were
> some wayward flocks on the fringe that made it into the southeast corner as
> well. Cool to see the correlation between datasets! Thanks for your post.
>
> https://birdcast.info/live-migration-maps/
>
> Steve Rash
> Denver Co.
>
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[cobirds] Updated Migration Advisory: Wed Night into Thurs

2020-04-15 Thread Bryan Guarente
Previously, the forecast looked like it would be good for build-up of birds
all along the Colorado Rockies.  Today's model runs look different though,
and you may have noticed a change in your weather app's forecast as well
because of it.  Here is what it looks like now for tonight at midnight:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.0,40.0,2421/loc=-105.000,40.000

The front came through earlier than expected, and has cut-off the
possibility of good overnight migration further north in CO along the Front
Range and has now limited down the good migration area to further south
(along the Arkansas River).  The best bet for overnight migration is along
a line from La Junta to Holly, CO (and into KS).  The flow looks more
convergent over La Junta than over Holly, so the further west on that line
you can go the better.

With the frontal passage happening earlier than expected, the entire
possibility of good migration into CO has changed with more northerly winds
throughout (until the Arkansas River).  This has also driven the
possibility of good migration farther south and east on this side of the
system, but driven the eastern portions of the good migration flyway
farther north and east into IA/IL at daybreak tomorrow.

Here is daybreak tomorrow (with Boulder highlighted as the Green Circle):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/16/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.0,40.0,2421/loc=-105,40

So major differences in CO migration compared to what we saw yesterday as a
good possibility of migration throughout the region overnight.  Sorry to
those of you in the now-not-so-good areas (CO Front Range north of Pueblo)
and bonus to those of you in SE CO who could expect some intrigue out of
this system.

Best of luck out there.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Advisory: Wednesday Night into Thursday

2020-04-14 Thread Bryan Guarente
Let's start this post off with two quotes:

   - "Go Birding in Bad Weather."  -- *Bill Schmoker ("Good Birders Don't
   Wear White")*
   - "*Thursday, April 16th*: Snow. High near 33. Northeast wind 7 to 11
   mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%"
-- *National
   Weather Service Boulder*

Thanks to Bill and the NWS for making this post possible/easier.  Bad
weather is coming on Thursday... so expect some good birds.  Let's look
more carefully though to be clear.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.,40,1600/loc=-105.000,40.000

That link has a green circle centered on Boulder, Colorado just for
reference.  So what do we see on this wind map?  Winds (in greens and
yellows) that are coming from the south in the Rio Grande valley into
southeastern CO then curving into the mountains where they abruptly slow
down or stop.  If you were a northward-migrating bird, you might want to
jump onto this train since it is the best show in town (by that I mean the
only southerly winds [blowing FROM the south]) in all of the US.  This map
is for Wednesday night/Thursday morning at 12 am.  It is also the winds
right near ground level here in CO, but about 1km off the ground in Texas.

This pattern looks great for bird migration.  It also looks great for
precipitation in the eastern half of CO, more in the north than in the
south.  With precipitation comes clouds, and in this case lower clouds.
Due to the timing of these winds, it might be good to get out overnight to
listen for low-altitude migrant overflights.  They love to chip, chirp,
tseep, and zeep when flying at night, and with low clouds that they won't
love to fly through (a dry flight is a safer flight), they will likely be
going below cloud base where we get a chance to hear them.

Here is the tricky part though...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/16/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.,40,1600/loc=-105.000,40.000

Six hours later, it doesn't look like the pattern is as conducive for birds
dropping into CO as much as it looks good for NE/KS/MO/IA, especially near
the nexus of all those borders.  Birds riding that south wind won't end up
in CO before the winds are no-longer advantageous for their northward
movement.

So with a grain of salt, we can take Bill Schmoker's advice and go locally
birding on Thursday.  There should be some movement of birds, but maybe not
as much as we would "want" during bad weather to prove Bill's thesis.  I
can say with confidence there will be plenty of movement on Thursday and
some people will get new birds for their year lists or yard lists if you
are lucky.  Expect some new influx on Thursday.

If the precipitation and temperatures aren't exciting for you, just wait
for the reports to come in on Thursday, then go out locally on Friday to
hunt those down.  They should still be around... check out the winds for 6
am Friday...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/17/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.,40,1600/loc=-105.000,40.000.
It doesn't look like much will want to leave our area with strong north
winds (wind FROM the north; not good for northward migration).

Go prove me right or wrong.  All data points are good data points.

May the winds be at the birds' backs, until they get to you.  Best of luck,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] American Blue Kestrel Jay, Denver Co.

2020-03-27 Thread Bryan Guarente
We have a Swainson's Hawk pair that nests in our neighborhood and the Blue
Jays take full advantage of the Swainson's Hawk call year-round, giving me
quite a scare in winter!  I have learned the subtle differences over time,
but it took quite some time and especially today awaiting the next push of
Swainson's Hawks I was caught off guard.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Mar 27, 2020 at 4:18 PM Doug Ward  wrote:

> I'd usually come up with a story like this one for the middle of next week
> (check the dates), but was thrown off enough with this true encounter this
> morning (Fri., 27 Mar.'20), felt I would share and see if anyone else has
> had a similar experience.  Anyway, we were respecting the current lock
> down/in/whatever you want to call it, out in the back yard (Denver, Denver
> Co.) playing with the dogs when I heard the characteristic "ki-ki-ki..." of
> an American Kestrel nearby.  We get kestrels coming around only very
> periodically, so thought "cool, where is he?"  Scanned the sky, looked to
> the tree tops, to see if I could find him, nothing.  However, it kept
> calling, so walked around trying to find the now frustrating bird.  Only
> when I noticed a bird fly out of a tree down the alley, still giving the
> call, that I had my WTF moment - it was a BLUE JAY!!  Now we are all
> familiar with jays of all flavors giving Red-tailed Hawk type cries, but
> this was the first time I'd heard one giving a perfect American Kestrel
> call!
>
> So have any of y'all had this specific (I guess inter-species) fake out
> happen with Blue Jays, or any other jay, before?  Interested in your
> experiences.  Stay safe and healthy.
>
> Cheers,
> Doug
> Denver
>
> *27 March 2020 – Home in Southwest Denver, Denver Co., CO*
> Canada Goose – 2 (flyover)
> Rock Pigeon – 5
> Eurasian Collared-Dove – 3
> Ring-billed Gull – 1ad (flyover)
> Northern Flicker – 4 “Red-shafted”
> American Kestrel – FAKE NEWS!!
> Blue Jay – 5
> Black-capped Chickadee – 6
> Bushtit – 5
> European Starling – 1
> American Robin – 2
> House Finch – 15
> Dark-eyed Junco – 2 “Slate-colored”
> -1 “Oregon”
> -5 “Pink-sided”
> Spotted Towhee – 1m
> Red-winged Blackbird – 1m
>
>
>
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[cobirds] Singing Male Chestnut-Sided Warbler (Longmont, Boulder County)

2019-06-06 Thread Bryan Guarente
I have a singing male Chestnut-sided Warbler in my backyard this morning.
Quite the surprise when putting out the trash this morning.

I first heard it sing at about 7:10 and it is still singing in the same
trees as of 8:00am.  Recorded audio of the bird, and submitted an eBird
checklist for it as well.  In NW Longmont, near Garden Acres Park.

Great way to wake up!

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Good Migration Conditions Today

2019-05-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
As Brandon has already noted, conditions today could be great for
migration. It is the right time of year, and the wind conditions are right.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-100.80,32.52,1001/loc=-105.120,40.191

The green circle on this image is approximately Boulder. You can see all
the winds funneling into the Front Range likely forcing some birds with it.

Get out birding if you can. You will be rewarded.

Bryan
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Re: [cobirds] Re: Chaetura swift, Waneka Lake, Boulder County, Apr. 21

2019-04-22 Thread Bryan Guarente
To throw some fuel onto the "which swift was it?" fire, here is the last
four days of 850mb winds, plus tomorrow's winds as well (April 23).  These
winds are near the surface here in Colorado, but about 1 - 1.5km above the
ground in other closer to sea level locations.  This is every three hours
of data and the local mountain time is listed in the bottom right corner of
the movie while I click through each time step.  The green circle located
in the middle of the image is Longmont, CO, just for reference.  Note the
direction that the winds are predominantly from on each day and what that
might mean for the Chaetura swift species that might show up, with Vaux's
being predominantly West Coastal, and Chimney being predominantly Gulf
Coastal.  Just fuel for the fire.
 850mb_winds_April19-24_2019_720p.mov
<https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-EC98Prj8FmyTr-u3evkpCqM26ccyLB6/view?usp=drive_web>
If you wanted to explore this on your own, you can go to
earth.nullschool.net to check it out as well.  Hit the "Earth" button in
the bottom left to start navigating the times and the levels.  I chose
850mb for my movie, but you might want to choose others.

Best of luck hunting for these birds if you go out.  I stopped Monday
morning at McIntosh Lake here in Longmont this morning and found over 450
swallows flying low over the lake, but no swifts.  Will keep looking though.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Mon, Apr 22, 2019 at 10:13 PM David Tønnessen 
wrote:

> In addition to Ted and Andy's reports of possible Vaux's Swifts, I have
> received two other alerts from eBird of Chaetura swifts in the last two
> days. The low clouds that smothered much of the front range today are
> supposed to linger into the early-mid morning tomorrow in at least Denver
> and south, maybe forcing flight-feeding birds like swallows and swifts to
> feed close to the ground. Might be worth keeping an eye out around buggy
> bodies of water for those who are able to!
>
>
> David Tonnessen
> Colorado Springs, CO
>
>
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[cobirds] Large Vulture Movement Northward (Boulder County)

2019-04-05 Thread Bryan Guarente
At the moment there are large kettles of turkey vultures moving northward
out of Longmont. 126 burds so far in 30 minutes. Had six different kettles
that included one kettle with 58 birds in it. Checked every vulture that
has flown by today (all Turkey Vultures; no zone-tails, no black vultures,
no king vultures).

Hopefully you get to see the spectacle.

Bryan
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Re: [cobirds] Pink footed Goose Weld

2018-12-11 Thread Bryan Guarente
Still present at 12:15. Same location.

Bryan

On Tue, Dec 11, 2018 at 11:15 AM Carl Bendorf  wrote:

> Spot is 1 mile south of 119 on CR 7. Bird sleeping on ice with about 50
> other geese. 75 yards east of CR 7.
>
> Carl Bendorf
> Longmont
>
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[cobirds] Blackburnian Warbler - Longmont Saturday in the Snow

2018-11-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
Still present saturday morning 8am in the Oakwood Cr pines west of staghorn
road. It was hanging out with some juncos and a yellow-rumped warbler.

Bryan
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Re: [cobirds] Yesterday's golden-plover event--and a question for Bryan Guarente

2018-10-18 Thread Bryan Guarente
Sandra and others,
In this case, it was because of the snowfall that made me focus in at a
lower level.  The snowfall drives the birds lower so they have more
visibility to something on the ground (at least that is what is
suspected).  In the earlier times of this event, the 850 millibars (units
of pressure abbreviated mb; approximately 1.5km up from sea level) was
similar to the surface winds, so not too big of a difference.  I appreciate
you calling me out on this.  It would have been better for me to say that I
was looking at the surface information because of the snowfall associated
with the system coming through.  This may actually lead to other confusion
for the birds parts and drive them closer to the ground making it more
likely for them to descend earlier rather than later.

I did evaluate where the precipitation was falling prior to the period I
posted about and had been watching it throughout the event (for
meteorological not ornithological reasons).  The precipitation was falling
behind this cold front ever since it was in Alberta, so it was a good bet
that the birds would be flying lower to the ground.  Ask anyone who
monitors nocturnal migration, and you will find that more migrants are
heard when the cloud cover is lower.  This is true when there is
precipitation as well, but there may be a bias in observers for comfort
reasons.

Hope that helps, and please feel free to keep asking more questions.  There
are more intricacies to this, but we only scratch the surface on COBirds.

Thanks for calling me out.  I appreciate the fact that this may have taken
extra gumption to do in a public forum, and I deserved it.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Wed, Oct 17, 2018 at 9:46 AM Sandra Laursen  wrote:

> Bryan,
> thanks for this analysis.  One lesson I have absorbed from you in the past
> is that it's not the surface-level winds that are important, but the wind
> up a bit higher where the birds are migrating.  Why do you focus on surface
> winds this time?
>
> thanks
> - Sandra Laursen
>
>
>
> On Monday, October 15, 2018 at 10:40:25 PM UTC-6, Bryan Guarente wrote:
>>
>> Cobirders,
>> when Ted beckons... you get a really long email...
>>
>> So the question is:
>>
>>1. Why did this situation bring more birds to the Front Range?
>>
>> *TL;DR* (Too long; didn't read) -- Super-short snarky answer just for
>> Ted: it was the wind!  The weather had a lot to do with it and which end of
>> the cold front Colorado ended up on helped dictate that flow of migrants.
>> Based on percentage of the total flow area behind the cold front compared
>> to the overall flow, it looked like a 30-40% chance that birds would end up
>> in the Front Range due to funneling or convergence.
>>
>> *Full version:*
>>
>>- *Why did this weather situation bring more birds to the Front
>>Range?*
>>
>> Let's look through the computer models because it is sexier, and makes it
>> easier for everyone to understand because I can give you data everywhere on
>> the globe.  One could also do this with satellite imagery, but it is harder
>> to get you to see what I want to see, so I will work with the easier
>> option.
>>
>>-
>>
>> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/14/Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-105,40,1706/loc=-105.000,40.000
>>
>> That animation of a single time gives you the idea of what is going on
>> that made Colorado a hotspot for any migrants yesterday.  Any bird trying
>> to make its way to the southeast from Canada may have started out with good
>> intentions, but depending on which side of the flow it started from or
>> ended up in over time, it had a strong chance of ending up heading toward
>> the Front Range.  The cold front itself is the "blue" area with no wind
>> that curves from Lake Nipigon down through Iowa, Nebraska, then curving
>> into Colorado.  All of the airflow behind that cold front (to the north and
>> west) is what we want to focus on.  The flow had multiple possible end
>> points at that time: near Lake Nipigon, along the cold front just south of
>> Lake Superior, along the cold front in Iowa, or into the Colorado Front
>> Range.
>>
>> The highest likelihood location for the birds to end up was actually
>> along the Front Range.  The percentage of the total area of that flow
>> behind the cold front that was showing a distinct convergence into the
>> Front Range was about 30-40% (guesstimated).  So any birds within that
>> 30-40 percentage of the total area had a strong likelihood of ending up in
>> Colorado's Front Range.  That means that birds ranging from Alberta through
>> Mo

Re: [cobirds] Yesterday's golden-plover event--and a question for Bryan Guarente

2018-10-15 Thread Bryan Guarente
to Montana or Alberta), the chances of
you covering enough ground to not end up in Colorado was pretty slim
without a LOT of extra effort to cross the flow.  Ask your pilot friends
which way they spend more fuel with a tail wind or with a cross wind and
you will get some idea of why they ended up here instead of Iowa like they
were "supposed" to.

Hope that helps.  This was my quick response.  If you want to hear more,
just ask and I will see what I can do to respond.  If you get to this email
soon after I sent it, you can see the same type of wind pattern play out in
the satellite imagery here:
https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation?satellite=goes-west_datetime=latest_images=all=conus=03_quality=gif_method=javascript

This is real-time data though, so you won't be able to watch that loop for
too much longer as it purges the old stuff.

Hope that helps, Ted.  And I hope others gleaned some knowledge from this
as well.  It was a fun situation to analyze and even more fun to bird.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Mon, Oct 15, 2018 at 10:42 AM Ted Floyd  wrote:

> Hey, everybody.
>
> American Golden-Plovers were reported from eleven (11) sites in Colorado
> yesterday, Sunday, Oct. 14. To put that in perspective, there were two (2)
> previous reports for Colorado in 2018: one (1) in Washington County, Sept.
> 4-8, and one (1) in Kiowa County, Sept. 18.
>
> The previous analysis is based on eBird data-mining.
>
> When one ponders such matters, one's thoughts turn instantly to Bryan
> Guarente. Bryan, what caused this? The snow, obviously. But why this
> particular snowfall? And why this particular species?
>
> Ted Floyd
> Lafayette, Boulder County
>
> P.s. Other than an American Golden-Plover, goodies yesterday in the
> general vicinity of Waneka Lake, Boulder County, included an Eastern
> Bluebird, hundreds of southbound Sandhill Cranes, two Hermit Thrushes, FOS
> Gray-headed and Pink-sided juncos, FOS Townsend's Solitaire, a Long-billed
> Dowitcher, Wilson's and Orange-crowned warblers, a getting-latish flock of
> 15 Lesser Goldfinches, and a Wood Duck.
>
> P.p.s. This Monday morning, Oct. 15, a quick stop at the Legion Park
> overlook revealed the Valmont Reservoir complex to be very birdy, harboring
> a Sanderling, a Semipalmated Plover, a couple dozen Mountain Bluebirds, and
> distant gulls, geese, and grebes galore. It would be very much worth the
> effort, I suspect, to walk in from Red Deer Drive and watch from the Open
> Space tract beyond the end of the road.
>
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[cobirds] Possible Eastern Wood-pewee (Boulder county: northeast Boulder)

2018-10-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
I had the good fortune of a wood-pewee showing up outside my office window
this morning (3085 Center Green Drive, northeast Boulder).  Took some poor
digibinned photos (in linked checklist below).

I found this bird to lean more towards Eastern than Western Wood-pewee.
Because this is an immature bird, I am hesitant of the colorations since it
is a hatch-year bird.

   - Strong buffy wingbars of equivalent brightness to each other.
   - Long primaries compared to tail.
   - Coloration of back and head seemed more brownish (dirty) than grayish
   (rather than ashy).
   - Vested look is much more like Olive-sided Flycatcher than the washed
   out Western Wood-pewee I am used to. This individual showed a distinct
   open-vested look with an obvious white stripe down its chest.
   - When viewed from below, the undertail coverts seemed more yellowy, and
   less smudged than I have seen previously with Western Wood-pewee.
   - Maxilla dark.
   - Mostly yellow mandible (70-80%).
   - Eyering.
   - Crested look at times.
   - No tail flicking.

Bird still present as of 11:10am.
Along the railroad tracks west of Center Green 2 (3085 Center Green Drive).

Here is my eBird checklist if anyone needs to see the photos.
https://ebird.org/view/checklist/S48866030

Feel free to refute this claim as well as this would be a first for me in
terms of differentiating.  Seen plenty of both species, just never found
one in the "others territory".

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Today might be the day

2018-05-18 Thread Bryan Guarente
Ted and other interested parties,
It may also NOT be THE day for BoCo.  Take a look at the surface winds at
this time:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=den=20180518=14=0

There will be movements into the foothills this morning, but it would be
all birds that have been out on the plains only a little ways and are
getting forced into the mountains/foothills.

The major convergence zone and long swath of winds from the south is,
imagine that, pointing towards I-70 from Limon through Burlington.  I can't
imagine why there would be so many good birds in Cheyenne county recently
(sarcasm).

I do wish you good birding nonetheless.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Fri, May 18, 2018 at 8:14 AM, Ted Floyd <tedfloy...@hotmail.com> wrote:

> Greetings, everybody, from Lafayette, Boulder County, where winds are out
> of the east, and all the clouds are low'r'd upon our house. Thus, on our
> walk to school this morning, Andrew Floyd and I were pleased, but not
> entirely surprised, when we heard a singing *Clay-colored Sparrow,* a
> singing *Blackpoll Warbler,* and a singing *Least Flycatcher *around the
> periphery of Waneka Lake. Does Andrew have a great walk to school, or what.
> Anyhow, those three species, especially the sparrow, are the ones I
> associate with groundings west of I-25 of "good" birds from points east. A
> harbinger of things to come? I mean, eventually, a certain *Basileuterus*
> warbler is going to find its way to Canaan's fair and happy land in the
> BoCo foothills, overflowing now with chokecherries...
>
> Additional thoughts on the matter:
>
> http://blog.aba.org/2018/05/happening-now-upslope-sparrows.html
>
> Ted Floyd
> Lafayette, Boulder County
>
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Re: [cobirds] Migrant fallouts through the Front Range

2018-05-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
This is a great observation David!

To keep an eye on the possible "fallout" locations, check out the surface
observations here:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=den=20180502=-1=0

In this image, you will see real meteorological observations from many
towns across Colorado and into the surrounding states.  The stick coming
out of the dot is the important part for today.  That indicates the
direction the winds are coming from.  For more information about this, you
can go here: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/maps/sfcobs/wnd.rxml

On that map linked above, look for areas in Eastern Colorado (away from the
mountains) where the wind barbs are collectively pointing toward each
other, that is where you may want to go birding.  If you watch this map
throughout the day, that location will change and may go away.  If it stays
in place for many hours at a time, this would be a great place to go
looking.

As of right now, the convergence of the wind barbs is pointing to a line
from about Chatfield Reservoir through Last Chance (and maybe farther
east).

Get out and do some searching.  There are probably plenty of birds out
there to find in all locations, but if you wanted the biggest bang for your
buck, going to this convergence line would likely be best.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Wed, May 2, 2018 at 9:24 AM, David Tønnessen <davidtonness...@gmail.com>
wrote:

> Hey Birders,
>
> Large movement on radar last night combined with the rainy conditions with
> low clouds throughout much of the Front Range today provide excellent
> conditions for grounding migrants. Get out if you can!
>
> Good luck,
> David Tonnessen
> Colorado Springs
>
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Re: [cobirds] Sagebrush sparrow, white rocks trail - Boulder Country

2018-03-31 Thread Bryan Guarente
Sorry meant 50 yards EAST.

Bryan

On Sat, Mar 31, 2018 at 4:55 PM Bryan Guarente <bryan.guare...@gmail.com>
wrote:

> Still present as of 4:50pm 50 yards west of Christian’s location. Working
> the oil road along the slight ridge.
>
> Bryan
>
> On Sat, Mar 31, 2018 at 12:13 PM 'Birding' via Colorado Birds <
> cobirds@googlegroups.com> wrote:
>
>> Still present at noon. Highest bush on the left at the top of the hill.
>> Perched up briefly, then disappeared into grass.
>>
>> Norm Lewis
>> Lakewood
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>>
>> On Mar 31, 2018, at 9:48 AM, Peter <peterbu...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Cobirders,
>> The Sagebrush Sparrow discovered by Christian Nunes yesterday was
>> relocated by Peter Gent, John Vanderpoel and I this morning.
>>
>> Take the White Rocks trail north of Valmont Road approximately one mile,
>> across the bridge and then across a ditch. Where the trail goes to the
>> right and uphill, look for the bird in the brush to the left.
>>
>> Good luck,
>> Peter Burke
>>
>> *From Peter's iPhone*
>>
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> UCAR/The COMET Program
> Boulder, CO
>
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Re: [cobirds] Sagebrush sparrow, white rocks trail - Boulder Country

2018-03-31 Thread Bryan Guarente
Still present as of 4:50pm 50 yards west of Christian’s location. Working
the oil road along the slight ridge.

Bryan

On Sat, Mar 31, 2018 at 12:13 PM 'Birding' via Colorado Birds <
cobirds@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> Still present at noon. Highest bush on the left at the top of the hill.
> Perched up briefly, then disappeared into grass.
>
> Norm Lewis
> Lakewood
> Sent from my iPhone
>
>
> On Mar 31, 2018, at 9:48 AM, Peter <peterbu...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Cobirders,
> The Sagebrush Sparrow discovered by Christian Nunes yesterday was
> relocated by Peter Gent, John Vanderpoel and I this morning.
>
> Take the White Rocks trail north of Valmont Road approximately one mile,
> across the bridge and then across a ditch. Where the trail goes to the
> right and uphill, look for the bird in the brush to the left.
>
> Good luck,
> Peter Burke
>
> *From Peter's iPhone*
>
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Re: [cobirds] SNOWY PLOVER, Weld

2017-05-12 Thread Bryan Guarente
Snowy plover still present at 6:59 on the nw corner of Union Reservoir.

Bryan

On Thu, May 11, 2017 at 7:16 PM Jack Bushong <jcbushon...@bvsd.org> wrote:

> Hi all,
> Just now my brother and I had a breeding plumaged SNOWY PLOVER on the
> mudflats in the NW corner of Union Reservoir. This was not a Piping. It had
> gray legs and black behind the eye. We have dozens of images that we will
> try to post tomorrow.
> Good Birding,
> Jack Bushong and Ryan Bushong,
> Louisville, CO
>
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Re: [cobirds] Snowstorm fallout at Chatfield 4/30 (Jefferson/Douglas) and mystery sparrow

2017-05-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
Here is the link I believe Bob Shade was trying to have people go to:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/wrshade3

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Mon, May 1, 2017 at 12:05 PM, Joe Roller <jroll...@gmail.com> wrote:

> would love to see the photos, Bob, but tried the link and did not find
> them there.
> Joe
>
> On Mon, May 1, 2017 at 11:34 AM, W. Robert Shade III <wrsha...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> My friend Greg and I sneaked in two hours cruising Chatfield State Park
>> yesterday afternoon. Many birds were on wet grass and on snow free
>> roadsides. Most numerous were dozens of Western Bluebirds followed
>> by Western Meadowlark, Vesper Sparrow, Mountain Bluebird, and Chipping
>> Sparrow. One Savannah Sparrow. A dozen or more out of place White-throated
>> Swifts foraging over the first gravel pond on the right just before
>> Kingfisher Bridge. A soaring immature Golden Eagle in the same location.
>> Two perched Swainson's Hawks, not common in Chatfield.
>>
>> NOW for my *mystery sparrow*. *I would appreciate ID help on this one*.
>> It seems to be an Ammodramus sparrow because of a complete eyeing, stout
>> bill and flat forehead and pink legs. I am guessing Grasshopper Sparrow but
>> the richness of chestnut on the face does not fit any GRSP I have ever seen
>> or can find in the field guides. You can see three photos on
>> WRShade3flickr. Any suggestions?
>>
>> Bob Shade
>> Lakewood
>>
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Re: [cobirds] Bird Tracks Gone

2016-11-29 Thread Bryan Guarente
Cheri and other COBirders,
I think it was just linking to this page essentially:
http://ebird.org/ebird/alert/summary?sid=SN35566

That is the Colorado Rare Bird Alert generated by eBird.  It will be
different than what is posted to COBirds each morning as that is compiled
by hand.  The eBird Colorado Rare Bird Alert is generated by comparing the
incoming lists with the expected birds in those areas at those times.  If
the bird is either a high count (I think) or a rarity, it gets flagged and
placed into this Alert.

If you want to navigate to another alert (for say another state or county),
you can do that here: http://ebird.org/ebird/alerts  From that page, you
can enter a country, state, province, or county to get the rare bird alerts
list for that area.

Hope that helps you for now.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Tue, Nov 29, 2016 at 8:46 AM, Cheri Phillips <richp...@q.com> wrote:

> Hi, What happened to the bird tracks rare bird report on the CFO home
> page? All I see now is a box to click to go to ebird. Perhaps it is just
> that I'm not familiar enough with ebird to know how to get current rare
> bird sightings like one could with the bird tracks report but this seems
> like a really poor substitute. Please bring it back!
>
> Cheri Phillips
> Centennial, CO
>
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[cobirds] Cold frontal passage this morning

2016-08-04 Thread Bryan Guarente
Did you see different birds this morning?

Not the best bird migration but enough for me to notice while cruising my
mountain bike on some trails. A flock of 10 lark sparrows and at least 1
wilson's warbler at the Valmont bike park away from the foothills. I
usually only get song sparrow, barn swallow, and swainson's hawks.

Elsewhere I heard a bunch of chipping sparrows, and some more wilson's
warblers. For not getting out much this morning for the purpose of birding,
I got a good variety.

I'll post the radar loop from this morning later when I get to a computer.
Nice frontal passage that should have produced local to regional
migrations.

Bryan


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[cobirds] Another push of migrants coming

2015-10-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
Not as "strong" a push as last time, but could see a slightly shorter
migration pattern tonight into tomorrow morning.  Temps will drop a bunch
overnight and give us a colder tomorrow.  The fun thing to look at though
is the frontal location at different times tomorrow morning when birds will
start to settle down for the morning feeding, or when you might have the
opportunity to go birding.  Here are the two possible times for tomorrow
morning:

If there is a green circle on both of these images when you load these
sites, it is centered on Boulder, CO.

6am:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.20,40,1009
At 6am, the front is forecasted to be around a line from John Martin
Reservoir to Atlantic, IA.

9am:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/21/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.20,40,1009
At 9am, the front is forecasted to be around a line from just north of
Springfield, CO to Atlantic, IA.

If the model data verifies or comes close to verifying, the places to bird
for higher concentrations of birds would be out there in SE Colorado.  I do
not expect this to be a strong push, but it is an opportunity for birds to
get on the move, so I leave the possibility (albeit small) for
"interesting" things  (rarities) aside from just some turnover of expected
migrants.  It is hard to say whether this will be another strong push of
Sandhill Cranes or not.  I am guessing this won't be as strong a push
because the winds are a really different situation for them in this coming
scenario.

Hope you have a chance to get out and prove me right or wrong.

Best of luck to the birds and you during this possible migration push.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Good migration kick tonight

2015-10-15 Thread Bryan Guarente
CoBirders,
I have heard the conversations so far about this being a slow migration
pattern.  I agree it has been a slow migration thus far, but I would
propose that it is because our upper-level wind patterns (about 1.5km up
from the ground) haven't been ideal for migration except for birds that fly
on thermals (think raptors, cranes, and pelicans) or really strong fliers
(geese).  Be careful when expressing that this is climate change in
action.  We cannot make a statement from a single season without comparing
it to other seasons and MANY other years quantitatively.

Tonight may be a good to great night though for other more wind-dependent
migrants (think smaller birds).  Most of the fun will be WAY farther south
and east than Colorado, but we should see some migrant turnover.

Take a look at the follow map for *9pm* tonight to see what I mean:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/16/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-95.62,41.72,1883

You can see the north winds coming out of Canada and wrapping back into the
Front Range of the Rockies here in Colorado.  But it gets even better as
you go further along in time:

*12am *tomorrow:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-95.62,41.72,1883

*3am *tomorrow:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/16/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-95.62,41.72,1883

*6am *tomorrow:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/10/16/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-95.62,41.72,1883

So you can see overnight we are looking at some winds coming from the north
and wrapping back into the Front Range area.  The mountain barrier is a
great concentrator of birds in this case.  So look along the Front Range at
local hotspots to see what comes.  It should get cloudier as the night goes
on, but I don't expect that the clouds will be low enough to drive
nocturnal flight calling down low enough in altitude to make a huge showing
tonight.  The nocturnal migration/calling should be strongest in central
Colorado initially, then transition down the Front Range as the night
progresses and the system moves more to the east and south of us here in
Colorado.

If you want to watch other locations (arm-chair birding) for strong
migrations or huge numbers of birds, I would look in the northern
Texas/Oklahoma area for the greatest concentrations as well as anywhere
along the front to the east and eventually northeast of that along a
arching line from around Arkansas to Maine where the birds will be more
dispersed, but movements will definitely be occurring.  For a closer range
possibility, look in New Mexico where the concentrations won't likely be
high, but they could see some more eastern species show up along their
mountain corridor than usual.

If you want to get really interesting with this, dig into the radar imagery
after dark and see if the radars light up along the areas of north winds
tonight.  You can see a nice US-sized view here:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KUSA=bref1=gray=20151015=-1=1

Hope you have a chance to bird tomorrow or overnight.  Report back as
needed.  Would love more data about whether this confirms or not.  Like any
forecast, this isn't perfect.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Anyone nocturnal listening tonight?

2015-08-22 Thread Bryan Guarente
There likely isn't enough cloud cover to keep the birds low enough, but we
should be getting birds on the move tonight from the north-northwest.

The following animation is centered on Denver, CO (green circle).
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-104.99,39.74,1500

With the frontal passage earlier this evening, we should be in for
migration, so keep your ears peeled tonight and eyes peeled tomorrow.  This
is early migration (yes, Ted, migration has been going on since July), so
don't expect any blockbusters, but expect some turnover.  I had a Wilson's
Warbler this evening in my local park which is likely a migrant.

Good luck if you go listening or looking.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Longmont Purple Finch (not yet)

2014-11-15 Thread Bryan Guarente
It's saturday morning and a larger than usual flock of finches is here, but
the Purple Finch is not with them. I am hopeful that the forthcoming snow
will drive the birds to my feeders.
It was hard to find yesterday and only showed for a few minutes. Will email
the lis if she shows up again. Still watching the feeders.

Bryan


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Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
The COMET Program
Boulder, CO




-- 
Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
The COMET Program
Boulder, CO




-- 
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UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Re: Longmont Purple Finch (not yet)

2014-11-15 Thread Bryan Guarente
The purple finch showed up at about 11:15am for about 3 minutes. Came in
with a huge flock of robins. Haven't seen it since. Roads are getting ugly
up here in Longmont.

Bryan

On Saturday, November 15, 2014, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
wrote:

 It's saturday morning and a larger than usual flock of finches is here,
 but the Purple Finch is not with them. I am hopeful that the forthcoming
 snow will drive the birds to my feeders.
 It was hard to find yesterday and only showed for a few minutes. Will
 email the lis if she shows up again. Still watching the feeders.

 Bryan


 --
 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO




 --
 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO




 --
 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO



-- 
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UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Re: Backyard Purssin's Finch

2014-11-14 Thread Bryan Guarente
The female-type Purple Finch has not shown up yet this morning, but I had
to leave for work.  I will keep people posted if it does show up after work
or if someone tells me they saw it.

Thanks.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Thu, Nov 13, 2014 at 8:45 AM, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
wrote:

 The female-type Purple Finch has shown up again this morning at my yard in
 Longmont, CO.  I am willing to have folks stop by to see her BEFORE 2pm
 today.  Email me if you are interested in coming over and I will give you
 more details.  Thanks.

 Bryan

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO

 On Wed, Nov 12, 2014 at 8:56 PM, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
 wrote:

 For those interested in the female eastern Purple Finch seen today, I
 can give you more details and more photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/

 Five of the photos are by John Vanderpoel (noted in the details) and
 three are mine.

 *Discussion:*
 This bird showed up this morning at my feeders with a large flock of
 House Finches.  I had been watching the feeders as there were 10 species
 visible in just my backyard (not counting flyovers).  I was enjoying the
 diversity, when this finch landed in view with a large white eyestripe.  I
 told my wife it was a Cassin's Finch, but immediately started doubting
 myself since I hadn't looked at it long enough.  Upon further reflection,
 this bird had

- a curved culmen on a shorter beak than is expected from Cassin's
Finch
- buffy sides (not always visible in the photos)
- darkest brown on its auriculars
- no eyering
- thick, dark streaks on the white breast and sides
- unmarked undertail coverts
- and overall color darker than surrounding House Finches
- David Dowell heard the bird call in flight multiple times and
described it as a pik.

 Heard from multiple people after posting to CoBirds.  Some doubt was cast
 on this bird because of the photos not showing the buffy sides.  But I can
 guarantee they were present on the bird in person.

 *Visiting/Chasing this bird:*
 I did NOT see the bird after 2:10pm this afternoon.  The House Finches
 were still present but there was no Purple Finch amongst them.  I will post
 to CoBirds in the morning if the bird shows up again.  I am happy to have
 visitors before 2pm tomorrow.  After that, my work schedule is going to
 change.  If you would like to try to chase the bird, please email me back
 for address and phone number.  The bird is not easily seen from the streets
 due to a privacy fence.  Entering into the yard will cause the birds to
 disperse as the yard is not very large, so please DO NOT enter into the
 gated yard if you do choose to chase this bird.  I am willing to entertain
 folks in the house for viewing. This is a much better option with the temps
 forecast for tomorrow.

 Let me know if you would like to chase this bird tomorrow.  I will post
 if the bird shows.  If you don't hear from me, the bird hasn't shown up.

 Bryan

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO

 On Wed, Nov 12, 2014 at 10:59 AM, Bryan Guarente 
 bryan.guare...@gmail.com wrote:

 Having made the mistake many times before (Purple versus Cassin's
 Finch), I am hesitant to call this bird a Purple Finch.  I am pretty
 convinced though this time and have some photos for your perusal, and more
 opinions are appreciated.  Will discuss more later, but here are the
 initial photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15588523669/in/photostream/
 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15772478681/in/photostream/

 Let me know what you think.

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO





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[cobirds] Re: Backyard Purssin's Finch

2014-11-14 Thread Bryan Guarente
She is finally here again today as of 3:33pm. If people want to try today
that is fine. I will accept people tomorrow but indoor seating may not be
possible.

The brd has been quite sporadic today. Maybe the snow tomorrow will help
drive it to the feeders more.

Bryan

On Wednesday, November 12, 2014, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
wrote:

 For those interested in the female eastern Purple Finch seen today, I
 can give you more details and more photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/

 Five of the photos are by John Vanderpoel (noted in the details) and three
 are mine.

 *Discussion:*
 This bird showed up this morning at my feeders with a large flock of House
 Finches.  I had been watching the feeders as there were 10 species visible
 in just my backyard (not counting flyovers).  I was enjoying the diversity,
 when this finch landed in view with a large white eyestripe.  I told my
 wife it was a Cassin's Finch, but immediately started doubting myself since
 I hadn't looked at it long enough.  Upon further reflection, this bird had

- a curved culmen on a shorter beak than is expected from Cassin's
Finch
- buffy sides (not always visible in the photos)
- darkest brown on its auriculars
- no eyering
- thick, dark streaks on the white breast and sides
- unmarked undertail coverts
- and overall color darker than surrounding House Finches
- David Dowell heard the bird call in flight multiple times and
described it as a pik.

 Heard from multiple people after posting to CoBirds.  Some doubt was cast
 on this bird because of the photos not showing the buffy sides.  But I can
 guarantee they were present on the bird in person.

 *Visiting/Chasing this bird:*
 I did NOT see the bird after 2:10pm this afternoon.  The House Finches
 were still present but there was no Purple Finch amongst them.  I will post
 to CoBirds in the morning if the bird shows up again.  I am happy to have
 visitors before 2pm tomorrow.  After that, my work schedule is going to
 change.  If you would like to try to chase the bird, please email me back
 for address and phone number.  The bird is not easily seen from the streets
 due to a privacy fence.  Entering into the yard will cause the birds to
 disperse as the yard is not very large, so please DO NOT enter into the
 gated yard if you do choose to chase this bird.  I am willing to entertain
 folks in the house for viewing. This is a much better option with the temps
 forecast for tomorrow.

 Let me know if you would like to chase this bird tomorrow.  I will post if
 the bird shows.  If you don't hear from me, the bird hasn't shown up.

 Bryan

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO

 On Wed, Nov 12, 2014 at 10:59 AM, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
 javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','bryan.guare...@gmail.com'); wrote:

 Having made the mistake many times before (Purple versus Cassin's Finch),
 I am hesitant to call this bird a Purple Finch.  I am pretty convinced
 though this time and have some photos for your perusal, and more opinions
 are appreciated.  Will discuss more later, but here are the initial photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15588523669/in/photostream/
 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15772478681/in/photostream/

 Let me know what you think.

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO




-- 
Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Re: Backyard Purssin's Finch

2014-11-13 Thread Bryan Guarente
The female-type Purple Finch has shown up again this morning at my yard in
Longmont, CO.  I am willing to have folks stop by to see her BEFORE 2pm
today.  Email me if you are interested in coming over and I will give you
more details.  Thanks.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Wed, Nov 12, 2014 at 8:56 PM, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
wrote:

 For those interested in the female eastern Purple Finch seen today, I
 can give you more details and more photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/

 Five of the photos are by John Vanderpoel (noted in the details) and three
 are mine.

 *Discussion:*
 This bird showed up this morning at my feeders with a large flock of House
 Finches.  I had been watching the feeders as there were 10 species visible
 in just my backyard (not counting flyovers).  I was enjoying the diversity,
 when this finch landed in view with a large white eyestripe.  I told my
 wife it was a Cassin's Finch, but immediately started doubting myself since
 I hadn't looked at it long enough.  Upon further reflection, this bird had

- a curved culmen on a shorter beak than is expected from Cassin's
Finch
- buffy sides (not always visible in the photos)
- darkest brown on its auriculars
- no eyering
- thick, dark streaks on the white breast and sides
- unmarked undertail coverts
- and overall color darker than surrounding House Finches
- David Dowell heard the bird call in flight multiple times and
described it as a pik.

 Heard from multiple people after posting to CoBirds.  Some doubt was cast
 on this bird because of the photos not showing the buffy sides.  But I can
 guarantee they were present on the bird in person.

 *Visiting/Chasing this bird:*
 I did NOT see the bird after 2:10pm this afternoon.  The House Finches
 were still present but there was no Purple Finch amongst them.  I will post
 to CoBirds in the morning if the bird shows up again.  I am happy to have
 visitors before 2pm tomorrow.  After that, my work schedule is going to
 change.  If you would like to try to chase the bird, please email me back
 for address and phone number.  The bird is not easily seen from the streets
 due to a privacy fence.  Entering into the yard will cause the birds to
 disperse as the yard is not very large, so please DO NOT enter into the
 gated yard if you do choose to chase this bird.  I am willing to entertain
 folks in the house for viewing. This is a much better option with the temps
 forecast for tomorrow.

 Let me know if you would like to chase this bird tomorrow.  I will post if
 the bird shows.  If you don't hear from me, the bird hasn't shown up.

 Bryan

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO

 On Wed, Nov 12, 2014 at 10:59 AM, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
  wrote:

 Having made the mistake many times before (Purple versus Cassin's Finch),
 I am hesitant to call this bird a Purple Finch.  I am pretty convinced
 though this time and have some photos for your perusal, and more opinions
 are appreciated.  Will discuss more later, but here are the initial photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15588523669/in/photostream/
 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15772478681/in/photostream/

 Let me know what you think.

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO




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[cobirds] Re: Backyard Purssin's Finch

2014-11-12 Thread Bryan Guarente
For those interested in the female eastern Purple Finch seen today, I can
give you more details and more photos.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/

Five of the photos are by John Vanderpoel (noted in the details) and three
are mine.

*Discussion:*
This bird showed up this morning at my feeders with a large flock of House
Finches.  I had been watching the feeders as there were 10 species visible
in just my backyard (not counting flyovers).  I was enjoying the diversity,
when this finch landed in view with a large white eyestripe.  I told my
wife it was a Cassin's Finch, but immediately started doubting myself since
I hadn't looked at it long enough.  Upon further reflection, this bird had

   - a curved culmen on a shorter beak than is expected from Cassin's Finch
   - buffy sides (not always visible in the photos)
   - darkest brown on its auriculars
   - no eyering
   - thick, dark streaks on the white breast and sides
   - unmarked undertail coverts
   - and overall color darker than surrounding House Finches
   - David Dowell heard the bird call in flight multiple times and
   described it as a pik.

Heard from multiple people after posting to CoBirds.  Some doubt was cast
on this bird because of the photos not showing the buffy sides.  But I can
guarantee they were present on the bird in person.

*Visiting/Chasing this bird:*
I did NOT see the bird after 2:10pm this afternoon.  The House Finches were
still present but there was no Purple Finch amongst them.  I will post to
CoBirds in the morning if the bird shows up again.  I am happy to have
visitors before 2pm tomorrow.  After that, my work schedule is going to
change.  If you would like to try to chase the bird, please email me back
for address and phone number.  The bird is not easily seen from the streets
due to a privacy fence.  Entering into the yard will cause the birds to
disperse as the yard is not very large, so please DO NOT enter into the
gated yard if you do choose to chase this bird.  I am willing to entertain
folks in the house for viewing. This is a much better option with the temps
forecast for tomorrow.

Let me know if you would like to chase this bird tomorrow.  I will post if
the bird shows.  If you don't hear from me, the bird hasn't shown up.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

On Wed, Nov 12, 2014 at 10:59 AM, Bryan Guarente bryan.guare...@gmail.com
wrote:

 Having made the mistake many times before (Purple versus Cassin's Finch),
 I am hesitant to call this bird a Purple Finch.  I am pretty convinced
 though this time and have some photos for your perusal, and more opinions
 are appreciated.  Will discuss more later, but here are the initial photos.

 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15588523669/in/photostream/
 https://www.flickr.com/photos/dafekt1ve/15772478681/in/photostream/

 Let me know what you think.

 Bryan Guarente
 Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
 UCAR/The COMET Program
 Boulder, CO


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[cobirds] LT Jaeger: Boulder Reservoir

2014-09-18 Thread Bryan Guarente
The Long-tailed Jaeger is still present as of 7am as well as at least 3
Sabine's Gulls (only saw 1st years). Best viewed from the north side
trailhead.

Bryan


-- 
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Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [cobirds] Re: Migration Destination: Potential for nice flight Wed Night/Thurs Morning

2014-09-09 Thread Bryan Guarente
Let the quibble battle begin...

Ted said, But I think it's still the case that the peak volume of
individuals is in late August. Here's a graph that portrays that result:

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-n9XnLoe1kDo/VA8ocfu0mEI/AAU/5Uqg4l-nhCQ/s1600/birds.jpg

The top curve (blue) is flight calls per hour (all flight calls) over
Lafayette, Boulder County, 2007-2009, 25-day floating average; the bottom
curve (pink) is Chipping Sparrows only. As you can see, there's a peak in
late August and the very beginning of September, and then a pretty serious
drop-off.

One of the problems we are battling against that is a difference between
back East birding and Old West birding is that the weather for night
detection is significantly different.  With the dewpoints in the East being
significantly higher for most of the year than Colorado, the cloud cover is
lower in the East than in the West skewing your dataset to the time when we
have the most moisture in the atmosphere here in Colorado during fall
migration (Monsoon season).  We have mid-level moisture from the Southwest
monsoon and also moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with easterly winds.
 Since this is typically at the end of the meteorological summer here in
Colorado, I think most of this dataset is reflective of night flight call
detection and NOT actual detections during the day and crossing that data
with the moisture/cloud cover.

If you look through the eBird barcharts for the entirety of Colorado during
September, you will note that there are still a bunch of passerines that
peak (have the greatest number of detections on eBird) in weeks to come
not weeks past.

http://ebird.org/ebird/GuideMe?cmd=decisionPagegetLocations=statesstates=US-CObYear=1900eYear=2014bMonth=9eMonth=9reportType=locationparentState=US-CO

In re-examining the eBird bar charts I am actually seeing a bunch of birds
that are peaking this week that I wasn't paying attention to last night, so
I believe that there may be more passerine migration than mentioned before
and thank you Ted for making me look at this again.

As to another point, Chipping Sparrows are likely participating in a molt
migration or dispersal and maybe not a full fledged migration (arguable I
know).  Looking at eBird data though, not just night detections at your
site (great dataset by the way), we find that Chipping Sparrows are
actually peaking in the first three weeks of September.  Is that data real?
 Well the short answer is... kinda.  We are aggregating across the entire
state, and mostly we are dependent on diurnal viewing, eBird reporters, who
think it is a Chipping Sparrow in the time of year when *spizella*
species are very hard to tell apart if not impossible depending on age.  I
have been catching myself not looking at *spizella*s recently because I
don't want to fight that battle.  So lots of layers to the argument.  So
since that is more of a local migration, it is problematic to use a weather
argument for Chipping Sparrow migration aside from locally.  If we use
something from farther away, like American Tree Sparrow, we get a different
picture of weather relating to bird migration.

As my data point for the upcoming weather, I went to McIntosh Reservoir
today in NW Longmont, and found only 11 gulls on the entire lake.  No
grebes, and no shorebird habitat in sight (sigh).  I'll see if I can get
there on Thursday for a repeat data point.

Thanks for arguing Ted.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Tue, Sep 9, 2014 at 10:27 AM, Ted Floyd tedfloy...@hotmail.com wrote:


 Outstanding post by Bryan Guarente. I nominate it for
 Best-COBirds-Post-of-the-Year award!

 I also wish to quibble with just one point from Bryan's excellent post:

 *Short read: Get out Wednesday night/Thursday morning when it starts to
 cloud up overnight for night migrants.  If you don't night listen (who the
 heck would do such a thing...), get out there in the intermittent
 drizzle/rain in the morning and get your feet wet with migrants.  Check for
 shorebirds, gulls, terns, and jaegers.  Passerine migration isn't in the
 big swing yet, so expect some of the early ones, but nothing major in terms
 of numbers.  *

 That part in *bold red* (my doing) is definitely the convention wisdom
 Back East, in, say, Pennsylvania, where both Bryan and I grew up.
 Basically, wait till after Labor Day weekend for the big passerine flights.
 Here in the Interior West, though, we've learned that the heavy flights are
 earlier. Of course, there's good stuff still to be found well into the
 fall. And among the most wondrous of our annual migration phenomena are the
 night flights of American Tree Sparrows in early November. But I think it's
 still the case that the peak volume of individuals is in late August.
 Here's a graph that portrays that result:


 https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-n9XnLoe1kDo/VA8ocfu0mEI/AAU/5Uqg4l-nhCQ/s1600/birds.jpg

 The top curve (blue

[cobirds] Short-lived burst of overnight birds

2014-09-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
Checking the radar right now, there is a minor front passing that has some
birds on it.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FTG-N0Q-1-24

As that east-west green line passes from northeast to southwest or north to
south depending on how close to the mountains you live, there are birds on
that front.  You can hear them calling when the front passes.  Go out and
listen if you are still awake and the front is getting close to you.  The
image updates every 7 minutes and is real-time.

See what you hear.  I had at least 10 individuals in 8 minutes.  Going back
out for a quick listen.  After the front passes, don't expect to hear too
much.  The concentrations will be way lower after the passage.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Possible Krider's Red-tailed Hawk outside Lyons

2014-06-28 Thread Bryan Guarente
CoBirders,
I led a Boulder Audubon Society field trip today to under-eBirded hotspots
within Boulder County.  One of the stops we made was at the St Vrain River
Crossing of 63rd st.  We had probably our best luck of the day at this
location.  Eastern Phoebe, unIDed empidonax species (too short a look),
great looks at Lesser Goldfinches, and a wondrous exceptionally white
Red-tailed Hawk.

We didn't obtain any photos of the bird (too focused on my part on teaching
about eBird; sorry) but I can offer a somewhat thorough description herein.
 My initial thought was Wow! That bird is so white that it might be a
Ferruginous Hawk which would be weird in its own way.  After getting
better looks of it flying over us, it had extremely obvious dark brown
patagial bars, darker than I usually see on either Eastern or Western
Red-tailed Hawks.  However, the rest of the chest was white and I mean
nearly spotless (maybe two or three brown streaks on the entire breast).
 The underwings were mostly white with minor gray streaks across the flight
feathers.  The tips of the wings had limited black as I recall, maybe 1/2
the length I would expect of a Western Red-tailed Hawk.  The tail was white
with a very slight tinge of orange on a few of the outer tail feathers.
 There was a subterminal thin stripe of medium brown.  The upperwing seemed
darker brown than I would expect of Western Red-tail.  I never got to see
the top or sides of the head to see their color, but from below, the
head had a white chin (uninterrupted) and had darkish brown solid
sideburns.  In flight, it had a minor dihedral (not as great as I have seen
from other Red-tails).  It didn't have the wings pushed forward at the
wrist.

Someone is going to ask me if I aged the bird.  My answer is It had
molted, so it wasn't a juvenile.  It is a stretch to  a assume that it was
an adult, but I do know it had lost a tail feather or two and there may
have been one or two flight feathers that were molted out already.  The
back edge of the wing was consistent like I would expect from a juvenile.

I have entertained many different options for this bird but with the
intention of being open I wanted to see what others thought.  My best
representative photo of what I saw is a mixture of these two photos from
the net:
http://birds.audubon.org/sites/default/files/imagecache/bird-full/species_images/Red-tailed_Hawk_w13-1-034_l.jpg
http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/PHOTO/LARGE/red_tailed_hawk_17.jpg

Let me know your thoughts and if anyone finds this bird again (we saw it
three separate times flying right over us and the bridge) I hope you can
get photos of any quality.  This bird was so different from the normal it
would stand out to most individuals.

Thanks for any info.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Migration Destination: Colorado Front Range (?)

2014-05-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
COBirders,
I have been monitoring the winds since before the Mother's Day Weekend
snowstorm on the web.  It has been a great example of how to stop
migration.  The snowstorm trucked through Colorado with the low pressure
center around the La Junta (approximated) then headed northeast.  After
that system swept through, the following pattern existed for the last
approximately 6 days.  It just kept digging farther south until the front
crossed the Gulf of Mexico.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/11/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704

Currently this image is centered on Longmont, CO (where I live).  To get
your location to show up highlighted on the map, click the Earth button
in the bottom right, then click on the [(O)] button (fifth line down from
the top, sixth button on that line).  That should help you orient yourself.
 If you need to zoom in or out, you can also do that with the scroll wheel
of your mouse (if you have one).  It might help for context to zoom out
sometimes.

Notice the winds are butted right up against the Front Range.  There is a
small section of air that would be able to squeeze right up the Front Range
to about... wait for it... Chatfield Reservoir.  Imagine that... there were
many reports of fallout.  I am not looking to have a discussion of fallout
and its many definitions, but would like to believe from the reports that
there were TONS of birds.  So whatever your definition of fallout, it would
have been fun to get to Chatfield during and after this storm.

But what happened the next few days.  There likely wasn't much large-scale
bird movement.  Watch the winds just slam down on Colorado from the north
for a while.

Noon on the 12th:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704

Noon on the 13th:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/13/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704

Noon on the 14th:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/14/1800Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704

and it just continued, until tonight (05/17/2014):
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704

That image is for 9pm tonight.  Where are all the winds pointing?  Directly
at the migration mecca (at least this year) of Colorado's Front Range.
 Don't believe these crazy maps from some random guy on CoBirds?  Try this
on for size:
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=FTG-N0Q-1-48

If you catch this image before it gets too late, there will be a nice set
of thunderstorms coming down off the Cheyenne Ridge (Cheyenne, WY), then
those break up and a few hours later the radar lights UP!  See the big ring
of green radar echoes?  Those are likely bugs, bats, and birds.  So get out
there and start listening.  The place to be right now is Colorado!

Unfortunately in the morning, We won't be so lucky though.  The pattern is
supposed to change to a more southerly flow throughout the night and most
of the migration won't get concentrated in Colorado (no fronts or
boundaries to stop bird migration).  Here's 6am tomorrow morning (5/18):
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/18/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.12,40.19,1704

I am going to go sit outside and count night flight calls with a glass of
wine in a minute.  Hoping to snag a few thrushes, maybe a sandpiper or two,
and hopefully plenty of unknown bird calls.  Let me know if you go out and
listen and how it plays out.  Birds might be high up because there isn't
low clouds, but still might get high concentrations since the winds haven't
been great for northward migration recently.  There might be some low
enough to hear.  Good luck to you and happy birding.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Painted Redstart present

2014-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
At 10:35 saturday. NW corner.

Bryan Guarente


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UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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[cobirds] Boulder County Cattle Egrets (5/1)

2014-05-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
This morning on my drive to work, I spotted 3 Cattle Egrets in the field
northwest of the diagonal highway between 55th and Boulder Reservoir just
northeast of the Gunbarrel Doggy Daycare.  John Vanderpoel apparently had
these birds in the same field yesterday according to eBird.  Good sighting
for Boulder County.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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