Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Eric, My understanding is that +.25W is the 95th percentile for the EU cells and +.5W is the 95th percentile for the US cells. They are using two sided confidence intervals (+/-.25W) so this would be +/- 1.96 standard deviations at .25W. They don't present the actual SD here: http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/285-us-eu-cell-calibration-results . We can get it by working backwards. (.25/1.96=.13) Now we can get the standard deviations equivalent of 2.5W. (2.5/.13=19.2) So for the EU cell, they are 19.2 standard deviations above calibration. I can't find a conversion chart with a fairly quick look that goes above 6 standard deviations. 6 SD is equivalent to 99.9975 percentile. By error and chance alone, this would indeed be a very rare occurrence. (Expected to occur less than 1 time out of 10 billion runs with an SD multiple of 6, so use your imagination for 19.2 SD multiples). That does not rule out some type of systematic error, which should be the first assumption. But if systematic error can be ruled out, this is indeed a robust finding. Jack Jack On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 9:28 PM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 12:05 PM, H Veeder hveeder...@gmail.com wrote: Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. It is encouraging to hear that MFMP are seeing excess heat. But we should not get too excited yet; 2.5 W and 1.4 W are small values, and 95 percent confidence is only two standard deviations from noise. I have heard that scientists often look for 5 standard deviations (5 sigma). For the MFMP calorimeters currently being used, with the glass and the SB equation, I suspect it will not be that convincing for people until they see 10-20 W excess heat (integrated excess power, including periods of endotherm). I recall Paul Hunt saying they needed very convincing results with the glass assemblies for them to be convincing to anyone. The control cells in each location are performing at or below calibration values. Perhaps someone here knows -- is it a problem if a control cell performs below the calibration values? The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the external cell temperatures are holding steady. Another weird thing to try to understand. Eric
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
I would also like to add that they should calculate confidence intervals on the active runs so we would know the 95th percentile lower bounds for those runs. The standard deviation for the active runs could be different from the calibration runs. On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 5:44 AM, Jack Cole jcol...@gmail.com wrote: Eric, My understanding is that +.25W is the 95th percentile for the EU cells and +.5W is the 95th percentile for the US cells. They are using two sided confidence intervals (+/-.25W) so this would be +/- 1.96 standard deviations at .25W. They don't present the actual SD here: http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/285-us-eu-cell-calibration-results . We can get it by working backwards. (.25/1.96=.13) Now we can get the standard deviations equivalent of 2.5W. (2.5/.13=19.2) So for the EU cell, they are 19.2 standard deviations above calibration. I can't find a conversion chart with a fairly quick look that goes above 6 standard deviations. 6 SD is equivalent to 99.9975 percentile. By error and chance alone, this would indeed be a very rare occurrence. (Expected to occur less than 1 time out of 10 billion runs with an SD multiple of 6, so use your imagination for 19.2 SD multiples). That does not rule out some type of systematic error, which should be the first assumption. But if systematic error can be ruled out, this is indeed a robust finding. Jack Jack On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 9:28 PM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.comwrote: On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 12:05 PM, H Veeder hveeder...@gmail.com wrote: Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. It is encouraging to hear that MFMP are seeing excess heat. But we should not get too excited yet; 2.5 W and 1.4 W are small values, and 95 percent confidence is only two standard deviations from noise. I have heard that scientists often look for 5 standard deviations (5 sigma). For the MFMP calorimeters currently being used, with the glass and the SB equation, I suspect it will not be that convincing for people until they see 10-20 W excess heat (integrated excess power, including periods of endotherm). I recall Paul Hunt saying they needed very convincing results with the glass assemblies for them to be convincing to anyone. The control cells in each location are performing at or below calibration values. Perhaps someone here knows -- is it a problem if a control cell performs below the calibration values? The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the external cell temperatures are holding steady. Another weird thing to try to understand. Eric
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 3:44 AM, Jack Cole jcol...@gmail.com wrote: They don't present the actual SD here: http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/285-us-eu-cell-calibration-results . We can get it by working backwards. (.25/1.96=.13) I was working backwards from 2.5 W at 95 percent confidence, working on the assumption that a 95 percent interval implied ~2 standard deviations [1]. It's been a while since I took statistics, so I could be wrong in my thinking. But I doubt their result is 19 sigma. That would be pretty much irrefutable unless there were some kind of systematic error. Eric [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Eric, I can see where you would think that, but I think they are saying that +.25W is at the 95% CI. They wrote: Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). *That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). * The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. (emphasis mine) So, 2.5W would be ~19 sigma if indeed the 95% confidence limit is ~.25W. They don't say that the +2.5W is at the 95%CI, they say it is *well above *the 95% CI of ~.25W. Am I missing something? It would follow for the US cell that 1.4W would be ~5-6 sigma. Anyway, I think we can safely call this a statistically significant difference by any reasonable standard. The next step would be to generate and test hypotheses about how systematic error could produce the results. I think they've started doing some of that. The challenge for them will be to not get overly excited and keep plugging away to rule out or confirm alternative explanations. Jack On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 3:44 AM, Jack Cole jcol...@gmail.com wrote: They don't present the actual SD here: http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/285-us-eu-cell-calibration-results . We can get it by working backwards. (.25/1.96=.13) I was working backwards from 2.5 W at 95 percent confidence, working on the assumption that a 95 percent interval implied ~2 standard deviations [1]. It's been a while since I took statistics, so I could be wrong in my thinking. But I doubt their result is 19 sigma. That would be pretty much irrefutable unless there were some kind of systematic error. Eric [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68%E2%80%9395%E2%80%9399.7_rule
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On Thu, Jun 27, 2013 at 8:46 AM, Jack Cole jcol...@gmail.com wrote: I can see where you would think that, but I think they are saying that +.25W is at the 95% CI. Personally, I find it hard to see how they could obtain 2.5 W at 19 sigma from a 30 W baseline using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, a glass tube and thermocouples, but this may be due to my inexperience. I am mindful of the first rule about holes [1]. Eric [1] http://www.mail-archive.com/vortex-l@eskimo.com/msg80719.html
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
A live audio/video discussion is happening now on google hangout: https://plus.google.com/u/0/112746934321590853702/posts/15RhcoJk6de Harry On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 3:05 PM, H Veeder hveeder...@gmail.com wrote: Today (June 26, 2013)... http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/295-simultaneous-test-runs-eu-us Update 18:15 UTC - Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. The indicated excess seems to be corroborated by several cell temperatures higher than calibration values. The control cells in each location are performing at or below calibration values. The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the external cell temperatures are holding steady. The resistance of the active wires is slowly rising as, presumably, the hydrogen is leaving into the vacuum. The EU cell has been cycled already, leading to the the active wire unloading and rising up to a higher resistance than the wire had originally.
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
From: H Veeder * The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. Harry, If you are in contact with them - please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. Nichrome is active for LENR for the same reason that Celani's wires are active - the wires contain Ni-62. In fact, they may contain more than constantan. There are plenty of good alternatives to nichrome - resistance wires which contains no nickel. If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat - then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! Jones
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Jones, Yes they are using nichrome and are aware of the issues but they are not using H in control cells. Harry On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 4:37 PM, Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: ** ** ** ** *From:* H Veeder ** ** **Ø **The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. ** ** Harry, ** ** If you are in contact with them – please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. ** ** Nichrome is active for LENR for the same reason that Celani’s wires are active – the wires contain Ni-62. In fact, they may contain more than constantan. ** ** There are plenty of good alternatives to nichrome - resistance wires which contains no nickel. ** ** If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat – then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! ** ** Jones
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat – then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! Or use an absolute method such as flow calorimetry, rather than a comparative method. The problem of blanks that are not blank goes way back to the early experiments of Fleischmann and Pons. As noted here Pons said their control experiments seemed to be producing heat. He wasn't happy about that, but he did not hide the fact. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Wire Dimensions:
220micron diameter
20micron active layer
100cm
1m*pi*220um*20um?mm^3
([{1 * meter} * pi] * [220 * {micro*meter}]) * (20 * [micro*meter]) ?
(milli*met
er)^3
= 13.823007 mm^3
Excess power:
2.5W
1m*pi*220um*20um;2.5W?W/cm^3
([{(1 * meter) * pi} * {220 * (micro*meter)}] * [20 * {micro*meter}])^-1 *
(2.5
* watt) ? watt / ([centi*meter]^3)
= 180.85789 W/cm^3
On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 2:05 PM, H Veeder hveeder...@gmail.com wrote:
Today (June 26, 2013)...
http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/295-simultaneous-test-runs-eu-us
Update 18:15 UTC -
Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated
excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than
during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was
indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6%
excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell
(~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess,
again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see
something positive and especially simultaneous.
The indicated excess seems to be corroborated by several cell temperatures
higher than calibration values. The control cells in each location are
performing at or below calibration values.
The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the
external cell temperatures are holding steady.
The resistance of the active wires is slowly rising as, presumably, the
hydrogen is leaving into the vacuum.
The EU cell has been cycled already, leading to the the active wire
unloading and rising up to a higher resistance than the wire had
originally.
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Jones, I was listening to the google chat and their control cells are run under *vacuum* conditions, so the only chance of any H being present is if some water (liquid or vapor) was present after evacuating the cell. I did not catch what kind of vacuum they pulled, but I think it is safe to say that very little of any gases are present in the control cells. -Mark From: Jones Beene [mailto:jone...@pacbell.net] Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 1:37 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat From: H Veeder Ø The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. Harry, If you are in contact with them please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. Nichrome is active for LENR for the same reason that Celanis wires are active the wires contain Ni-62. In fact, they may contain more than constantan. There are plenty of good alternatives to nichrome - resistance wires which contains no nickel. If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! Jones
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Well, that is good - but they should probably use neon instead of helium in control cells and absolutely fresh nichrome (never exposed to hydrogen), As mentioned earlier, the first proton in any nickel alloy will bury itself in the FCC crystal and cannot be removed without actually melting the wire. It becomes an actual alloy and a strong alloy at that. If the nichrome was ever exposed to hydrogen, it should not be used as a control since it can and probably will be a nickel-hydrogen alloy in the ratio of 14:1. That low percentage of hydrogen may limit its excess heat capability, but not eliminate it. Also helium can be active for Lamb shift manipulation, according to a few theorists. IIRC helium is mentioned in the Haisch patent. http://aias.us/documents/uft/paper86.pdf Therefore a non-active control would consist of virgin nichrome wire in neon. From: H Veeder Yes they are using nichrome and are aware of the issues but they are not using H in control cells. Harry * The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. Harry, If you are in contact with them - please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. Nichrome is active for LENR for the same reason that Celani's wires are active - the wires contain Ni-62. In fact, they may contain more than constantan. There are plenty of good alternatives to nichrome - resistance wires which contains no nickel. If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat - then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! Jones attachment: winmail.dat
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: Well, that is good - but they should probably use neon instead of helium in control cells and absolutely fresh nichrome (never exposed to hydrogen), Yes. Better a gas than a vacuum. Heat transfer in a vacuum is a whole different animal. - Jed
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Jones, you wrote, but they should probably use neon instead of helium in control cells What makes you think they used helium??? They said, and I restated, that they operate their control cells in a *VACUUM*, so I take that to mean that they assemble the cell, and then attach it to a vacuum pump and pump the INSIDE of the cell down to some level of vacuum... so NO gases at all inside the cell. -Mark _ From: Jones Beene [mailto:jone...@pacbell.net] Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 3:15 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat Well, that is good - but they should probably use neon instead of helium in control cells and absolutely fresh nichrome (never exposed to hydrogen), As mentioned earlier, the first proton in any nickel alloy will bury itself in the FCC crystal and cannot be removed without actually melting the wire. It becomes an actual alloy and a strong alloy at that. If the nichrome was ever exposed to hydrogen, it should not be used as a control since it can and probably will be a nickel-hydrogen alloy in the ratio of 14:1. That low percentage of hydrogen may limit its excess heat capability, but not eliminate it. Also helium can be active for Lamb shift manipulation, according to a few theorists. IIRC helium is mentioned in the Haisch patent. http://aias.us/documents/uft/paper86.pdf Therefore a non-active control would consist of virgin nichrome wire in neon. From: H Veeder Yes they are using nichrome and are aware of the issues but they are not using H in control cells. Harry * The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. Harry, If you are in contact with them - please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. Nichrome is active for LENR for the same reason that Celani's wires are active - the wires contain Ni-62. In fact, they may contain more than constantan. There are plenty of good alternatives to nichrome - resistance wires which contains no nickel. If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat - then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! Jones attachment: winmail.dat
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Mark - I did not see your message ahead of posting mine. However, the point stands that no amount of vacuum pumping will ever remove the alloyed proton from nickel. That proton remains until the nickel is melted. Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). Jones _ From: MarkI-ZeroPoint Jones, you wrote, but they should probably use neon instead of helium in control cells What makes you think they used helium??? They said, and I restated, that they operate their control cells in a *VACUUM*, so I take that to mean that they assemble the cell, and then attach it to a vacuum pump and pump the INSIDE of the cell down to some level of vacuum... so NO gases at all inside the cell. -Mark _ From: Jones Beene Well, that is good - but they should probably use neon instead of helium in control cells and absolutely fresh nichrome (never exposed to hydrogen), As mentioned earlier, the first proton in any nickel alloy will bury itself in the FCC crystal and cannot be removed without actually melting the wire. It becomes an actual alloy and a strong alloy at that. If the nichrome was ever exposed to hydrogen, it should not be used as a control since it can and probably will be a nickel-hydrogen alloy in the ratio of 14:1. That low percentage of hydrogen may limit its excess heat capability, but not eliminate it. Also helium can be active for Lamb shift manipulation, according to a few theorists. IIRC helium is mentioned in the Haisch patent. http://aias.us/documents/uft/paper86.pdf Therefore a non-active control would consist of virgin nichrome wire in neon. From: H Veeder Yes they are using nichrome and are aware of the issues but they are not using H in control cells. Harry * The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. Harry, If you are in contact with them - please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. Nichrome is active for LENR for the same reason that Celani's wires are active - the wires contain Ni-62. In fact, they may contain more than constantan. There are plenty of good alternatives to nichrome - resistance wires which contains no nickel. If Quantum is serious about showing excess heat - then they must move away from using a control which is also active ! Jones attachment: winmail.dat
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On 2013-06-27 00:42, Jones Beene wrote: Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). The control cells have not been exposed to hydrogen yet. Are you suggesting that they might have been, inadvertently? Cheers, S.A.
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Jones' point about ANY exposure to H is acknowledged... That being said, does anyone know the exact procedure by which the material in the control cell was prepared and the cell assembled??? Obviously, the nichrome wire was shipped to them, but was it exposed to air (humid air will supply plenty of H)? How were the cells assembled?? I can't imagine that they were somehow assembled in a vacuum; perhaps in an inert gaseous environment?? -Mark -Original Message- From: Akira Shirakawa [mailto:shirakawa.ak...@gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 3:47 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat On 2013-06-27 00:42, Jones Beene wrote: Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). The control cells have not been exposed to hydrogen yet. Are you suggesting that they might have been, inadvertently? Cheers, S.A.
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On 2013-06-27 00:55, MarkI-ZeroPoint wrote: Jones' point about ANY exposure to H is acknowledged... That being said, does anyone know the exact procedure by which the material in the control cell was prepared and the cell assembled??? Obviously, the nichrome wire was shipped to them, but was it exposed to air (humid air will supply plenty of H)? How were the cells assembled?? I can't imagine that they were somehow assembled in a vacuum; perhaps in an inert gaseous environment?? The cells have *not* been assembled in a vacuum or in an inert gaseous environment as far as I know. They have all been calibrated with a vacuum applied for long periods of time, however. This one was the only first run alongside the activated cells, not the first run ever. Cheers, S.A.
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
-Original Message- From: Akira Shirakawa Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). The control cells have not been exposed to hydrogen yet. Are you suggesting that they might have been, inadvertently? Akira, No - I was suggesting that in previous experiments to this one - the same nichrome wire could have been used. Did they start out with a virgin wire for this experiment or not? Often experimenters cut corners and reuse items from previous runs. It is a common misunderstanding to think that all the hydrogen can be pumped out of nickel by vacuum or a combination of heat and vacuum - and the Hunt group simply may not have known how tightly the last proton is bound to 14 nickel atoms in a FCC crystal. The alloyed proton will not come out even at 2700 degree F. IOW you can load nickel with hydrogen up to a 1:1 ratio, but you cannot unload the last proton in the FCC crystal without melting it. Jones
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On 2013-06-27 01:09, Jones Beene wrote: No - I was suggesting that in previous experiments to this one - the same nichrome wire could have been used. Did they start out with a virgin wire for this experiment or not? Often experimenters cut corners and reuse items from previous runs. I haven't asked but as far as I have seen I'm fairly certain that for the control cells they used completely fresh materials. It is a common misunderstanding to think that all the hydrogen can be pumped out of nickel by vacuum or a combination of heat and vacuum - and the Hunt group simply may not have known how tightly the last proton is bound to 14 nickel atoms in a FCC crystal. The alloyed proton will not come out even at 2700 degree F. IOW you can load nickel with hydrogen up to a 1:1 ratio, but you cannot unload the last proton in the FCC crystal without melting it. I don't think they are expecting to achieve *complete* hydrogen desorption; even Celani warned them that it's not an easy job at all to achieve that. It can be pumped out for the most part, but as you say there could be a remaining tiny amount virtually impossible to get out without destroying the wire. Cheers, S.A.
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Am I missing something here? Surely if the control cell is producing some small amount of energy from an LENR process due to contamination but it's less than that being produced by the experimental cell then while a baseline might be hard or even impossible to establish wouldn't a significant power gain be detectable and verifiable? [mg] On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 3:55 PM, MarkI-ZeroPoint zeropo...@charter.netwrote: Jones' point about ANY exposure to H is acknowledged... That being said, does anyone know the exact procedure by which the material in the control cell was prepared and the cell assembled??? Obviously, the nichrome wire was shipped to them, but was it exposed to air (humid air will supply plenty of H)? How were the cells assembled?? I can't imagine that they were somehow assembled in a vacuum; perhaps in an inert gaseous environment?? -Mark -Original Message- From: Akira Shirakawa [mailto:shirakawa.ak...@gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 3:47 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat On 2013-06-27 00:42, Jones Beene wrote: Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). The control cells have not been exposed to hydrogen yet. Are you suggesting that they might have been, inadvertently? Cheers, S.A.
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On 2013-06-26 22:37, Jones Beene wrote: If you are in contact with them – please ask if they are still using nichrome as a control. Both cells (Activated [A] and Control [B] - there is one of each both in EU and in the US, so four in total) have a NiCr wire (for passive/indirect heating purposes) and a treated Constantan wire from Celani. The only difference between the control and the activated cells is that since yesterday in the activated cells several hydrogen loading cycles have been performed and are now apparently showing some excess heat under passive heating. It is expected that they will produce even more [apparent?] excess heat when the Celani wires will be directly heated (by applying current to them). Once Celani wires get loaded it seems that they will keep producing excess heat under vacuum for some amount of time (days) even when heated passively/indirectly. They are planning to activate the control cells at a later time. Cheers, S.A.
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Hi MarkG, No, you're not missing anything. a control cell producing some small amount of heat would result in a *conservative* (i.e., lower) estimate of power generated in the test cell. assuming that the test cell is at least several sigma above the control cell so experimental uncertainty was not a reasonable explanation for the excess. -Mark I From: mark.gi...@gmail.com [mailto:mark.gi...@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Mark Gibbs Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 4:31 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat Am I missing something here? Surely if the control cell is producing some small amount of energy from an LENR process due to contamination but it's less than that being produced by the experimental cell then while a baseline might be hard or even impossible to establish wouldn't a significant power gain be detectable and verifiable? [mg] On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 3:55 PM, MarkI-ZeroPoint zeropo...@charter.net wrote: Jones' point about ANY exposure to H is acknowledged... That being said, does anyone know the exact procedure by which the material in the control cell was prepared and the cell assembled??? Obviously, the nichrome wire was shipped to them, but was it exposed to air (humid air will supply plenty of H)? How were the cells assembled?? I can't imagine that they were somehow assembled in a vacuum; perhaps in an inert gaseous environment?? -Mark -Original Message- From: Akira Shirakawa [mailto:shirakawa.ak...@gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 3:47 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat On 2013-06-27 00:42, Jones Beene wrote: Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). The control cells have not been exposed to hydrogen yet. Are you suggesting that they might have been, inadvertently? Cheers, S.A.
RE: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
-Original Message- From: Akira Shirakawa I haven't asked but as far as I have seen I'm fairly certain that for the control cells they used completely fresh materials. Well, let's face it - like everyone else in LENR they are severely underfunded. Therefore it is not a given that they would use new nichrome instead of salvaging from previous runs. And it is a big deal if they were showing 4% gain against an active control, instead of much more if nichrome had been fresh. To be clear - I am not saying that there could be a difference, but nichrome is 80% nickel and there is probably four times more Ni-62 in that wire than in the constantan ! Thus - if there is residual hydrogen in the nichrome wire as well, it is very likely to be gainful as a control, possibly strongly gainful - even when run at a vacuum... not to mention the possibility of so-called spontaneous hydrogen. Jones
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 7:43 PM, Jones Beene jone...@pacbell.net wrote: Thus - if there is residual hydrogen in the nichrome wire as well, it is very likely to be gainful as a control, possibly strongly gainful - even when run at a vacuum... not to mention the possibility of so-called spontaneous hydrogen. If Ni62 is the basis for the gain. :-)
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
So, as I understand from the data [1] over the test runs the US cell saw a gain of about 4.9% (1.49W/30.25W) and the EU Cell saw about 6.1% (1.82W/30.05W). [mg] [1] http://data.hugnetlab.com/ On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 4:43 PM, MarkI-ZeroPoint zeropo...@charter.netwrote: Hi MarkG, No, you’re not missing anything… a control cell producing some small amount of heat would result in a **conservative** (i.e., lower) estimate of power generated in the test cell… assuming that the test cell is at least several sigma above the control cell so experimental uncertainty was not a reasonable explanation for the excess. -Mark I ** ** *From:* mark.gi...@gmail.com [mailto:mark.gi...@gmail.com] *On Behalf Of *Mark Gibbs *Sent:* Wednesday, June 26, 2013 4:31 PM *To:* vortex-l@eskimo.com *Subject:* Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat ** ** Am I missing something here? Surely if the control cell is producing some small amount of energy from an LENR process due to contamination but it's less than that being produced by the experimental cell then while a baseline might be hard or even impossible to establish wouldn't a significant power gain be detectable and verifiable? ** ** [mg] ** ** ** ** ** ** On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 3:55 PM, MarkI-ZeroPoint zeropo...@charter.net wrote: Jones' point about ANY exposure to H is acknowledged... That being said, does anyone know the exact procedure by which the material in the control cell was prepared and the cell assembled??? Obviously, the nichrome wire was shipped to them, but was it exposed to air (humid air will supply plenty of H)? How were the cells assembled?? I can't imagine that they were somehow assembled in a vacuum; perhaps in an inert gaseous environment?? -Mark -Original Message- From: Akira Shirakawa [mailto:shirakawa.ak...@gmail.com] Sent: Wednesday, June 26, 2013 3:47 PM To: vortex-l@eskimo.com Subject: Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat On 2013-06-27 00:42, Jones Beene wrote: Whether or not nickel-hydride with 7% by atomic volume hydrogen will give much net gain is debatable - but the lack of hydrogen gas in the cell after vacuum purge may not be enough for a good control (if the nichrome was previously alloyed with hydrogen). The control cells have not been exposed to hydrogen yet. Are you suggesting that they might have been, inadvertently? Cheers, S.A. ** **
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On 2013-06-27 02:33, Mark Gibbs wrote: So, as I understand from the data [1] over the test runs the US cell saw a gain of about 4.9% (1.49W/30.25W) and the EU Cell saw about 6.1% (1.82W/30.05W). That's about what they've written in the 18:15 UTC update here: http://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/295-simultaneous-test-runs-eu-us Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. The indicated excess seems to be corroborated by several cell temperatures higher than calibration values. The control cells in each location are performing at or below calibration values. The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the external cell temperatures are holding steady. The resistance of the active wires is slowly rising as, presumably, the hydrogen is leaving into the vacuum. The EU cell has been cycled already, leading to the the active wire unloading and rising up to a higher resistance than the wire had originally. I think it's important to note that this is still preliminary data and that unexpected measurement artifacts might lurk somewhere. For example, it's still not clear whether or not hydrogen loading affects the way infrared radiation (thermal radiation is the main heat transfer mode in these vacuumed cells) from the heated wires and other internal components is thermalized by the transparent borosilicate glass tube, from whose external temperature, output power calculations get computed. Cheers, S.A.
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
More to the point, what is important to note is that the amount is less important than the reproducibility. The experimental protocol here is open -- unlike Rossi -- and the simultaneous appearance of two successes by two separate teams points to the possibility that they have, indeed, found an experimental protocol with high reproducibility of the phenomenon. As I understand it, we'll have to wait for about 6 days to see if the effect goes away as it did with Celani. If so, and if it happens with both current experiments, we'll have more evidence that this protocol will vastly accelerate the science. On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 7:58 PM, Akira Shirakawa shirakawa.ak...@gmail.comwrote: On 2013-06-27 02:33, Mark Gibbs wrote: So, as I understand from the data [1] over the test runs the US cell saw a gain of about 4.9% (1.49W/30.25W) and the EU Cell saw about 6.1% (1.82W/30.05W). That's about what they've written in the 18:15 UTC update here: http://www.quantumheat.org/**index.php/en/follow/follow-2/** 295-simultaneous-test-runs-eu-**ushttp://www.quantumheat.org/index.php/en/follow/follow-2/295-simultaneous-test-runs-eu-us Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. The indicated excess seems to be corroborated by several cell temperatures higher than calibration values. The control cells in each location are performing at or below calibration values. The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the external cell temperatures are holding steady. The resistance of the active wires is slowly rising as, presumably, the hydrogen is leaving into the vacuum. The EU cell has been cycled already, leading to the the active wire unloading and rising up to a higher resistance than the wire had originally. I think it's important to note that this is still preliminary data and that unexpected measurement artifacts might lurk somewhere. For example, it's still not clear whether or not hydrogen loading affects the way infrared radiation (thermal radiation is the main heat transfer mode in these vacuumed cells) from the heated wires and other internal components is thermalized by the transparent borosilicate glass tube, from whose external temperature, output power calculations get computed. Cheers, S.A.
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
Akira Shirakawa shirakawa.ak...@gmail.com wrote: I think it's important to note that this is still preliminary data and that unexpected measurement artifacts might lurk somewhere. Yes. I don't like to be a wet blanket, but over the years I have seen dozens of results like this come and go. The percent of excess heat here is small, and the absolute value of the heat in watts is small compared to the capacity of the calorimeter. You really have to be cautious with something on this scale. From the first message, this is 2.5 W of excess power over the 30.4 W input power (~6% excess). 2.5 W would be a huge signal if this were McKubre's calorimeter, or one of Storms', but in a calorimeter with a minimum threshold of 0.25 W this is not much. This is FAR less than Rossi's power levels or input to output ratio. That makes it much easier to believe his results, as measured by Levi, simply because they are so big. This illustrates the fact that there is no single best method that applies to all experiments. It would be impossible to measure the difference between 30.4 W and 32.9 W with something like an IR camera. That's unthinkable. The errors are 10% (albeit conservatively) so 6% would be in the noise. Levi's method is crude but it is ideal for 300 W in 900 W out. It would be ridiculous to try it with this. - Jed
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 12:05 PM, H Veeder hveeder...@gmail.com wrote: Both the EU Cells and the US Cells were switched on and BOTH indicated excess energy as the cells came to equilibrium at higher temperatures than during the calibration tests. The EU cell with the active wire was indicating up to 2.5W of excess power over the 30.4W input power (~6% excess). That is well above the 95% confidence limits for that cell (~0.25W). The US Cell was indicating approximately 1.4 watts excess, again, well above the ~0.5W confidence interval. Very exciting to see something positive and especially simultaneous. It is encouraging to hear that MFMP are seeing excess heat. But we should not get too excited yet; 2.5 W and 1.4 W are small values, and 95 percent confidence is only two standard deviations from noise. I have heard that scientists often look for 5 standard deviations (5 sigma). For the MFMP calorimeters currently being used, with the glass and the SB equation, I suspect it will not be that convincing for people until they see 10-20 W excess heat (integrated excess power, including periods of endotherm). I recall Paul Hunt saying they needed very convincing results with the glass assemblies for them to be convincing to anyone. The control cells in each location are performing at or below calibration values. Perhaps someone here knows -- is it a problem if a control cell performs below the calibration values? The internal cell temperatures seem to be slowly degrading, but the external cell temperatures are holding steady. Another weird thing to try to understand. Eric
Re: [Vo]:MFMP cells in Europe and US now showing signs of excess heat
On Wed, Jun 26, 2013 at 7:28 PM, Eric Walker eric.wal...@gmail.com wrote: For the MFMP calorimeters currently being used, with the glass and the SB equation, I suspect it will not be that convincing for people until they see 10-20 W excess heat (integrated excess power, including periods of endotherm). Sorry, typo. I meant to say that it would be nice to see 10-20 W excess power, and that the integrated power, including endotherm, be significant. Eric
