Re: [agi] Competing AGI approaches

2007-03-17 Thread Ben Goertzel
HI, Currently Ben's Novamente is among the most mature and promising AGIs out there, which I think is no small accomplishment. But still, it is not yet clear that NM will be the *ultimate* winner, if we take into consideration the entry of the big guys (eg Microsoft, Google, DARPA etc)

Re: [agi] Competing AGI approaches

2007-03-17 Thread Ben Goertzel
4) So, the question is not whether DARPA, M$ or Google will enter the AI race -- they are there. The question is whether they will adopt a workable approach and put money behind it. History shows that large organizations often fail to do so, even when workable approaches exist, allowing

Re: [agi] Competing AGI approaches

2007-03-17 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi, The question is whether your work can be duplicated after your initial success, and how hard is that. It certainly could be duplicated but once we demonstrate enough success that everyone wants to copy us, then we will be able to raise all the $$ we want and hire all the great

[agi] Semi-amusing Novamente machinima

2007-03-17 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi all, This doesn't really showcase Novamente's learning ability very much -- it's basically a smoke test of the integration of Novamente probabilistic learning with the AGISim sim world -- an integration which we've had sorta working for a while but has had a lot of kinks needing

Re: [agi] Semi-amusing Novamente machinima

2007-03-17 Thread Ben Goertzel
Bob Mottram wrote: It's difficult to judge how impressive or otherwise such demos are, since it would be easy to produce an animation of this kind with trivial programming. What are we really seeing here? How much does the baby AGI know about fetching before it plays the game, and how

Re: [agi] Semi-amusing Novamente machinima

2007-03-17 Thread Ben Goertzel
What's the size of the space NM is searching for this plan? Well that really depends on how you count things One way to calculate it would be to look at the number of trees with 15 nodes, with say 20 possibilities at each node. Because in practice the plans it comes up with, with

Re: [agi] DARPA Ends Brain Reverse Engineering Project

2007-03-16 Thread Ben Goertzel
Well, Novamente LLC submitted a proposal to this that was rejected. My impression was that most of the recipients of the BICA funding did not have credible AGI approaches, and many were in fact relatively new to the AGI problem. The recipients were by and large smart scientists with

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
J. Storrs Hall, PhD. wrote: On Tuesday 13 March 2007 22:34, Ben Goertzel wrote: J. Storrs Hall, PhD. wrote: On Tuesday 13 March 2007 20:33, Ben Goertzel wrote: I am confused about whether you are proposing a brain model or an AGI design. I'm working with a brain model

Re: [agi] The AGI Test

2007-03-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
Chuck, Regarding AGI tests, this is something I've thought about a bit because some people from the nonprofit world have told me they felt it would be relatively easy to raise money for some kind of AGI Prize, similar to the Hutter Prize or the Methuselah Mouse Prize. However, I thought about

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
It is a trite point, but I can't help repeating that, given how very little we know about the brain's deeper workings, these estimates of the brain's computational and memory capability are all kinda semi-useless... I think that brain-inspired AGI may become very interesting in 5-20 years

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
Eugen Leitl wrote: On Wed, Mar 14, 2007 at 09:12:55AM -0400, Ben Goertzel wrote: It is a trite point, but I can't help repeating that, given how very little we know about the brain's deeper workings, these estimates of the brain's computational Not to belabor the point

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
In my thinking I've dropped the neural inspiration and everything is in terms of pure math. Each module (probably better drop that term, it's ambiguous and confusing: let's use IAM, interpolating associative memory, instead), each IAM is simply a relation, a set of points in N-space, with an

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
(which are dead simple by comparison). But there's a new field of reactive programming that imports just enough control from programming languages to the always active paradigm that it looks tractable. And it cuts the size of programs in half. Josh On Wednesday 14 March 2007 18:07, Ben Goertzel

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
But the bottom line problem for using FOPC (or whatever) to represent the world is not that it's computationally incapable of it -- it's Turing complete, after all -- but that it's seductively easy to write propositions with symbols that are English words and fool yourself into thinking

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
Numeric vectors are strictly more powerful as a representation than predicates. This is not really true... A set of vectors is a relation, which is a predicate; I can do any logical operation on them (given, e.g. a term constructor that is simply a hash function along an axis). But they

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi, Yes, copycat simulated a metric in an ad hoc way, because it lacked a robust way of measuring and utilizing uncertainty... I am unsure (heh heh) what uncertainty has to do with it. CC got a fixed, completely known problem. It could only construct valid interpretations, so there

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
I'm working on the assumption that a basic, simple, universal, FAST capability to do analogical quadrature in each module (read: the chunk of brain that owns each concept) working all at once and all together is what can make this possible. I basically agree with this, actually. In

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
J. Storrs Hall, PhD. wrote: On Tuesday 13 March 2007 20:33, Ben Goertzel wrote: I am confused about whether you are proposing a brain model or an AGI design. I'm working with a brain model for inspiration, but I speculate that once we understand what it's doing we can squeeze a few

[agi] Evolutionary approaches...

2007-03-12 Thread Ben Goertzel
These terms need to be used carefully... Evolutionary algorithms, as a learning technique, are sometimes a good solution ... though in NM we don't use any classical evolutionary algorithms, relying instead on a customized version of MOSES (see www.metacog.org for a description of the general

Re: [agi] The Missing Piece

2007-03-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
YKY (Yan King Yin) wrote: Hi John, Re your idea that there should be an intermediate-level representation: 1. Obviously, we do not currently know how the brain stores that representation. Things get insanely complex as neuroscientists go higher up the visual pathways from the primary

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
YKY (Yan King Yin) wrote: On 3/11/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: All this is perfectly useful stuff, but IMO is not in itself sufficient for an AGI design. The basic problem is that there are many tasks important for intelligence, for which

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
3. Give an example of a task where logical inference is inefficient? ;) I mentioned your question to my wife and she responded: Well, how about mathematical theorem-proving? ;-) Quite apropos... In fact we may refine the retort as: Well, how about proving nontrivial theorems in

Re: [agi] My proposal for an AGI agenda

2007-03-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
YKY (Yan King Yin) wrote: On 3/12/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Natural concepts in the mind are ones for which inductively learned feature-combination-based classifiers and logical classifiers give roughly the same answers... 1. The feature-combination

[agi] Off-topic: The Shtinkularity

2007-03-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi all, If you have 2.5 minutes or so to spare, my 13-year-old son Zebulon has made another Singularity-focused mini-movie: http://www.zebradillo.com/AnimPages/The%20Shtinkularity.html This one is not as deep as RoboTurtle II, his 14-minute Singularity-meets-Elvis epic from a year ago or so

Re: [agi] The Missing Piece

2007-03-10 Thread Ben Goertzel
Mark Waser wrote: In the Novamente design this is dealt with via a currently unimplemented aspect of the design called the internal simulation world. This is a very non-human-brain-like approach Why do you believe that this is a very non-human-brain-like approach? Mirror neurons and many

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
YKY (Yan King Yin) wrote: I agree with Ben and Pei etc on this issue. Narrow AI is VERY different from general AI. It is not at all easy to integrate several narrow AI applications to a single, functioning system. I have never heard of something like this being done, even for two computer

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi Bob, Is there a document somewhere describing what is unique about your approach? Novamente doesn't involve real robotics right now but the design does involve occupancy grids and probabilistic simulated robotics, so your ideas are of some practical interest to me... Ben Bob Mottram

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
for reasoning under uncertainty, are actually more critical to its general intelligence, as they have subtler and more thoroughgoing synergies with other tools that help give rise to important emergent structures/dynamics. -- Ben Goertzel - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
functions accurately reflect the characteristics of the sensors being used (in this case stereo cameras). On 06/03/07, *Ben Goertzel* [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hi Bob, Is there a document somewhere describing what is unique about your approach

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
-replacement updates... Qualitatively this seems like the sort of thing the brain must be doing, and the kind of thing any AI system must do to cope with a rapidly changing environment... Ben On 06/03/07, *Ben Goertzel* [EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Thanks

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
for some purposes, but is more foundationally represented as a dynamic configuration of nodes and links that habitually become important together in certain contexts...] There are plenty other examples too, but that will suffice for now... -- Ben - Original Message - From: Ben Goertzel

Re: [agi] general weak ai

2007-03-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
Mark Waser wrote: Just polynomially expensive, I believe Depends upon whether you're fully connected or not but yeah, yeah . . . . Another, simpler example is indexing items via time and space: you need to be able to submit a spatial and/or temporal region as a query and find items relevant

Re: [agi] Do AGIs dream of electric sheep?

2007-02-25 Thread Ben Goertzel
What about the AGIs that people are building or working towards, such as those from Novamente, AdaptiveAI, Hall, etc.? Do/Will your systems have sleep periods for internal maintenance and improvement? If so, what types of activities do they perform during sleep? Novamente doesn't need to

Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non-religious comments!)

2007-02-22 Thread Ben Goertzel
and maintaining indexes Yep... or are you just calculating index values for a single use and then discarding them? Mark - Original Message - From: Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2007 7:51 PM Subject: **SPAM** Re: [agi

Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non-religious comments!)

2007-02-22 Thread Ben Goertzel
that are rapidly evolving and need to support complex queries rapidly... -- Ben -- Ben - Original Message - From: Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2007 8:13 PM Subject: **SPAM** Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non

Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non-religious comments!)

2007-02-22 Thread Ben Goertzel
modification. OK ... but if an RDB is not the right data container to use, then what advantage is there in running your C# code (including e.g. your graph DB) in in a SQL engine??? - Original Message - From: Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Thursday

Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non-religious comments!)

2007-02-21 Thread Ben Goertzel
just think that you've missed out on some opportunities to focus even more on what matters instead of re-inventing some wheels. - Original Message - From: Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: agi@v2.listbox.com Sent: Tuesday, February 20, 2007 6:34 PM Subject: **SPAM** Re: **SPAM** Re: [agi

Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non-religious comments!)

2007-02-21 Thread Ben Goertzel
Mark Waser wrote: So from the below, can I take it that you're a big proponent of the .NET framework since database access is built into the framework *AND* the framework is embedded in the database? The crazy like a fox way to build an AGI may very well be to write it in the .NET

Re: [agi] The Missing Piece

2007-02-20 Thread Ben Goertzel
Richard Loosemore wrote: Ben Goertzel wrote: It's pretty clear that humans don't run FOPC as a native code, but that we can learn it as a trick. I disagree. I think that Hebbian learning between cortical columns is essentially equivalent to basic probabilistic term logic. Lower

Re: **SPAM** Re: [agi] Development Environments for AI (a few non-religious comments!)

2007-02-20 Thread Ben Goertzel
Also, why would 32 - 64 bit be a problem, provided you planned for it in advance? Name all the large, long-term projects that you know of that *haven't* gotten bitten by something like this. Now, name all of the large, long-term projects that you know of that HAVE gotten bitten repeatedly

Re: [agi] Re: Languages for AGI

2007-02-19 Thread Ben Goertzel
J. Storrs Hall, PhD. wrote: On Sunday 18 February 2007 19:22, Ricardo Barreira wrote: You can spend all the time you want sharpening your axes, it'll do you no good if you don't know what you'll use it for... True enough. However, as I've also mentioned in this venue before, I want

Re: [agi] The Missing Piece

2007-02-19 Thread Ben Goertzel
It's pretty clear that humans don't run FOPC as a native code, but that we can learn it as a trick. I disagree. I think that Hebbian learning between cortical columns is essentially equivalent to basic probabilistic term logic. Lower-level common-sense inferencing of the

Re: [agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-18 Thread Ben Goertzel
Aki Iskandar wrote: Hello - I'm new on this email list. I'm very interested in AI / AGI - but do not have any formal background at all. I do have a degree in Finance, and have been a professional consultant / developer for the last 9 years (including having worked at Microsoft for almost

Re: [agi] Re: Languages for AGI

2007-02-18 Thread Ben Goertzel
BTW: I really loved Haskell when I used it in the 90's, and if there were a rip-roaring fast SMP Haskell implementation with an effective customizable garbage collector, Novamente would probably be written in Haskell. But, there is not, and so Novamente is written in C++ ... but

Re: [agi] Re: Languages for AGI

2007-02-18 Thread Ben Goertzel
In Abraham Lincoln's case I think it makes sense, since he already knows how he'll use the axe. I doubt that most people who are worrying about which language they'll use actually have a good idea of how to actually design an AGI... You can spend all the time you want sharpening your axes,

Re: [agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-15 Thread Ben Goertzel
gts wrote: LEADING TO THE ONLY THING REALLY INTERESTING ABOUT THIS DISCUSSION: What interests me is that the Principle of Indifference is taken for granted by so many people as a logical truth when in reality it is fraught with logical difficulties. I think it's been a pretty long time

Re: [agi] Enumeration of useful genetic biases for AGI

2007-02-15 Thread Ben Goertzel
-- Assume there will be persistent objects in the 3D space This is not innate. Babies don't recognize that when an object is hidden from view that it still exists. I'm extremely familiar with the literature on object permanence; and the truth seems to be that babies **do** have

Re: [agi]

2007-02-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
Eric Baum wrote: Ben And, I'm not thinking to use such a list as the basis for Ben creating an AGI, but simply as a tool for assisting in thinking Ben about an already-existing AGI design that was created based on Ben other principles. My suspicion is that all the known and Ben powerful human

Re: [agi] hard-coded inductive biases

2007-02-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
Peter Voss wrote: ... various comments ... It more fundamental than that: The design of your 'senses' - what feature extraction, sampling and encoding you provide lays a primary foundation to induction. Peter That is definitely true, and is PART of what I meant by saying that the

Re: [agi]

2007-02-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
But I should clarify-- I don't mean the final routines are explicitly coded in exactly. The genomic code runs, interacts with data in the sensory stream, and produces the mental structures reflecting the routines. That's how it evolves, because as the genome is being mutated, what survives

Re: [agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-14 Thread Ben Goertzel
Indeed, that is a cleaner and simpler argument than the various more concrete PI paradoxes... (wine/water, etc.) It seems to show convincingly that the PI cannot be consistently applied across the board, but can be heuristically applied to certain cases but not others as judged contextually

[agi] Enumeration of useful genetic biases for AGI

2007-02-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi, In a recent offlist email dialogue with an AI researcher, he made the following suggestion regarding the inductive bias that DNA supplies to the human brain to aid it in learning: * What is encoded in the DNA may include a starting ontology (as proposed, with exasperating vaguess, by

Re: [agi] Enumeration of useful genetic biases for AGI

2007-02-13 Thread Ben Goertzel
Matt Mahoney wrote: I don't think there is a simple answer to this problem. We observe very complex behavior in much simpler organisms that lack long term memory or the ability to learn. For example, bees are born knowing how to fly, build hives, gather food, and communicate its location.

Re: [agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
Eliezer, Ben, is the indefinite probability approach compatible with local propagation in graphical models? Hmmm... I haven't thought about this before, but on first blush, I don't see any reason why you couldn't locally propagate indefinite probabilities through a Bayes net... We

Re: [agi] Quantum Computing Demo Announcement

2007-02-09 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 9, 2007, at 3:26 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote: On Thu, Feb 08, 2007 at 11:03:38PM -0500, Ben Goertzel wrote: But, Novamente is certainly architected to take advantage of their 1000-qubit version for various tasks, when it comes out... ;-) Which part of it is massively parallel

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-09 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 9, 2007, at 11:01 AM, gts wrote: On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 18:37:52 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: This is simply a re-post of my prior post, with corrected terminology, but unchanged substance: Thanks! Very helpful. Now that you have a better understanding of dutch

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-09 Thread Ben Goertzel
Thus, to be coherent, we need to ensure that our beliefs fit together (logically). Yes, but for a cognitive system to make its beliefs about a large number of complex and interdependent statements fit together (logically) requires infeasibly much computing power. The brain doesn't do

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-09 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 9, 2007, at 4:31 PM, Pei Wang wrote: This is a better example of conjunction fallacy than the Linda example (again, I don't think the latter is a fallacy), but still, there are issues in the mainstream explanation: Pei: If the Linda example** is presented in the context of

Re: [agi] conjunction fallacy [WAS: Betting and multiple-component truth values]

2007-02-09 Thread Ben Goertzel
I don't think a betting situation will be different for this case. To really avoid intensional considerations, experiment instructions should be so explicit that the human subjects know exactly what they are asked to do. I believe that, in the betting versions of the Linda-fallacy experiment,

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-08 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 8, 2007, at 8:59 AM, gts wrote: On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 20:40:27 -0500, Charles D Hixson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I suspect you of mis-analyzing the goals and rewards of casino gamblers I'm not sure whether or not this speaks to the points that you are attempting to raise, but it

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-08 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 8, 2007, at 9:16 AM, gts wrote: On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 16:51:18 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In fact I have been thinking about how one might attempt a dutch book against Novamente involving your multiple component values, but I do not yet fully understand b. My

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-08 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 8, 2007, at 9:37 AM, gts wrote: On Thu, 08 Feb 2007 09:26:28 -0500, Pei Wang [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In simple cases like the above one, an AGI should achieve coherence with little difficulty. What an AGI cannot do is to guarantee coherence in all situations, which is impossible

Re: Gamblers Probability Judgements [WAS Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values]

2007-02-08 Thread Ben Goertzel
Changing the subject slightly: the optimal use of probabilities is NOT always the best foundation for action. I say this because of a news report I heard a few months back (on NPR: sorry, I can't remember the reference), about a math student who was very bright, and whose professor

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-08 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 8, 2007, at 11:39 AM, gts wrote: re: the right order of definition De Finetti's (and Ramsey's) main contribution was in showing that the formal axioms of probability can be derived entirely from considerations about people betting on their subjective beliefs under the relatively

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-08 Thread Ben Goertzel
Actually, conjunction fallacy is probably going to be one of the most difficult of all biases to eliminate; it may even be provably impossible for entities using any complexity-based variant of Occam's Razor, such as Kolmogorov complexity. If you ask for P(A) at time T and then P(AB) at

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
that stupid, they won't be able to achieve complete probabilistic coherence on complex domains. -- Ben On Feb 7, 2007, at 10:44 AM, gts wrote: On Tue, 06 Feb 2007 20:02:11 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Consistency in the sense of de Finetti or Cox is out of reach

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 7, 2007, at 3:48 PM, gts wrote: Ben, Of course the world is an enormously complex relation of interdependencies between many causes and effects. I do not dispute that fact. I question however whether this should really be an important consideration in developing AGI. One's

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
Pei, gts and others: I will now try to rephrase my ideas about indefinite probabilities and betting, since my prior exposition was not well-understood. What I am suggesting is pretty different from Walley's ideas about betting and imprecise probabilities, and so far as I can tell is also

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 7, 2007, at 4:35 PM, gts wrote: On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 16:07:13 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: only under an independence assumption. True, I did not make the independence assumption explicit. Note that dutch books cannot be made against an AGI that does not claim

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
is not a Dutch Book. Pei On 2/7/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Pei, gts and others: I will now try to rephrase my ideas about indefinite probabilities and betting, since my prior exposition was not well-understood. What I am suggesting is pretty different from Walley's ideas about betting

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
This is simply a re-post of my prior post, with corrected terminology, but unchanged substance: Suppose we have a category C of discrete events, e.g. a set of tosses of a certain coin which has heads on one side and tails on the other. Next, suppose we have a predicate S, which

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Ok, sorry if I used the term wrong. The actual game is clearly defined though even if I attached the wrong label to it. I will resubmit the post with corrected terminology... ben On Feb 7, 2007, at 6:21 PM, Pei Wang wrote: Ben, Before going

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
measurements should and can be defined in this way. Though I'll need more time to comment on the details, I don't feel good about the overall picture. Pei On 2/7/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: As I understand it, his idea was that if you set your operational subjective probability

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
, of course... Your view of humans as accurate probabilistic reasoners is definitely not borne out by the Heuristics and Biases literature in cognitive psychology. Ben On Feb 7, 2007, at 8:40 PM, Charles D Hixson wrote: gts wrote: On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 10:57:04 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-07 Thread Ben Goertzel
a difference --- to me, the problem in an improper interpretation cannot be made up by formal/technical treatments. If you propose indefinite probability as a pure mathematical notion, I'll have much less problem with it. Pei On 2/7/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: H Peii

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
probability in general (though binary second-order statement is OK). Pei On 2/5/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Pei (and others), I thought of a way to define two-component truth values in terms of betting strategies (vaguely in the spirit of de Finetti). I was originally trying

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-06 Thread Ben Goertzel
Consistency in the sense of de Finetti or Cox is out of reach for a modest-resources AGI, in principle... Sorry to be the one to break the news. But, don't blame the messenger. It's a rough universe out there ;-) Ben G On Feb 6, 2007, at 4:10 PM, gts wrote: I understand the resources

Re: [agi] Relevance of Probability

2007-02-05 Thread Ben Goertzel
So, sorry, but I am looking at the same data, and as far as I am concerned I see almost no evidence that probability theory plays a significant role in cognition at the concept level. What that means, to go back to the original question, is that the possibility I raised is still

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
Ben, this is also why I was wondering why your hypothesis is framed in terms of both Cox and De Finetti. Unless I misunderstand Cox, their interpretations are in some ways diametrically opposed. De Finetti was a radical subjectivist while Cox is (epistemically) an ardent

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
The interpretation of probability is a different matter --- we have been talking about consistency, which is largely independent to which interpretation you subscribe to. Correct In my opinion, in the AGI context, each of the three traditional interpretation is partly applicable but partly

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
: when you can construct an internal model of part of the world, so that everything is consistent within the model, then you can reason via probability... ben On Feb 4, 2007, at 10:49 AM, Pei Wang wrote: On 2/4/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: As you know I feel differently. I

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
The definition of 'probabilistic consistency' that I was using comes from ET Jaynes' book _Probability Theory - The Logic of Science_, page 114. These are Jaynes' three 'consistency desiderata' for a probabilistic robot: 1. If a conclusion can be reasoned out in more than one way, then

Re: [agi] Relevance of Probability

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi, s. 1) Would anyone currently putting energy into the foundations of probability discussion be willing to say that this hypothetical human mechanism could *still* be meaningfully described in terms of a tractable probabilistic formalism (by, e.g., transforming or approximating

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 4, 2007, at 2:23 PM, gts wrote: On Sun, 04 Feb 2007 13:15:27 -0500, Pei Wang [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: none of the existing AGI project is designed [according to the tenets of objective/logical bayesianism] Hmm. My impression is that to whatever extent AGI projects use bayesian

Re: [agi] Relevance of Probability

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
It **could** be that the only way a system can give rise to probabilistically sensible patterns of action-selection, given limited computational resources, is to do stuff internally that is based on nonlinear dynamics rather than probability theory. But, I doubt it... The human brain may

[agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
Pei (and others), I thought of a way to define two-component truth values in terms of betting strategies (vaguely in the spirit of de Finetti). I was originally trying to think of a way to define two-component truth values a la Cox, but instead a betting strategy approach is what I came

[agi] Probabilistic consistency

2007-02-04 Thread Ben Goertzel
For a different view on probabilistic and logical consistency, we can always turn to Dostoevsky, who posited that the essence of being human is that we can make ourselves believe 2+2=5 if we really want to '-) I.e., he saw our potential for **willful inconsistency**, considered in the

Re: [agi] Optimality of using probability

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
Eliezer, I don't think a mind that evaluates probabilities *is* automatically the best way to make use of limited computing resources. That is: if you have limited computing resources, and you want to write a computer program that makes the best use of those resources to solve a

Re: [agi] Optimality of using probability

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
On Feb 3, 2007, at 9:02 AM, Russell Wallace wrote: On 2/3/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: My approach was to formulate a notion of general intelligence as achieving a complex goal, and then ask something like: Given what resource levels R and goals G, is approximating probability

Re: [agi] Optimality of using probability

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
That suggests you mean A. Well then, it seems to me that terms are being used in this discussion so that probability theory is _defined_ as giving the right answers in all cases. So the original question boils down to is it always best to give approximately the right answers?; the answer

[agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
Hi Russell, OK, I'll try to specify my ideas in this regard more clearly. Bear in mind though that there are many ways to formalize an intuition, and the style of formalization I'm suggesting here may or may not be the right one. With this sort of thing, you only know if the

Re: [agi] foundations of probability theory

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
. ben On Feb 3, 2007, at 12:18 PM, gts wrote: On Fri, 02 Feb 2007 22:01:34 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In Novamente, we use entities called indefinite probabilities, which are described in a paper to appear in the AGIRI Workshop Proceedings later this year... Roughly

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
an observer could infer from the system's behaviors, rather than a definition that assumes the system is explicitly doing formal logic internally. -- Ben On Feb 3, 2007, at 8:47 PM, Pei Wang wrote: On 2/3/07, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: My desire in this context is to show

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
Okay... let's say when an agent exhibits inconsistent implicit preferences for acting in a particular situation, it is being suboptimal, and the degree of suboptimality depends on the degree of inconsistency. Given: S = a situation I = importance (to G) of acting correctly in that

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
I must agree with Pei on this. Think of a reasonably large AI, say, eight light hours across. Any belief frame guaranteed to be globally consistent must be at least eight hours out of date. So if you only act on globally consistent knowledge, your reaction time is never less than your

Re: [agi] Optimality of probabilistic consistency

2007-02-03 Thread Ben Goertzel
Again, to take consistency as an ultimate goal (which is never fully achievable) and as a precondition (even an approximate one) are two very different positions. I hope you are not suggesting the latter --- at least your posting makes me feel that way. Hi, In the Novamente system,

Re: [agi] foundations of probability theory

2007-02-02 Thread Ben Goertzel
pertain to single-number representations (but does not state that a single number is a sufficient quantification of a mind's uncertainty about a statement) ben On Feb 2, 2007, at 1:52 PM, gts wrote: On Thu, 01 Feb 2007 14:00:06 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Discussing

Re: [agi] foundations of probability theory

2007-02-02 Thread Ben Goertzel
algorithms for propagating these indefinite probabilities through logical inferences. -- Ben On Feb 2, 2007, at 9:37 PM, gts wrote: On Fri, 02 Feb 2007 15:57:24 -0500, Ben Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Interpretation-wise, Cox followed Keynes pretty closely. Keynes had his own eccentric

Re: [agi] foundations of probability theory

2007-02-01 Thread Ben Goertzel
This seems to also be dealt with at the end of Cox's book... Interesting. I'm tempted to read Cox's book so that you and I can discuss his ideas in more detail here on your list. (I worry that my enthusiasm for this subject is only annoying people on that other discussion list.) Is that

Re: [agi] foundations of probability theory

2007-01-29 Thread Ben Goertzel
HI, Pei Wang's uncertain logic is **not** probabilistic, though it uses frequency calculations IMO Pei's logic has some strong points, especially that it unifies fuzzy and probabilistic truth values into one pair of values. I think in Pei's logic the frequency f is indeed a

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