Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

On 5 May 2019 at 17:04, Lee Hart via EV wrote:

> I don't think the situation is hopeless or impossible. But it is 
> certainly difficult.
> 
> It's the Innovator's Dilemma. How do you sell a disruptive new product 
> in a market already controlled by entrenched competitors? Answer? You 
> can't. You have to find, or create a new market, and fly under their 
> "rader" until you can get big enough to compete. Like Apple vs. IBM, or 
> Amazon vs. Sears.

The problem is that most products that claim to be "disruptive" aren't. 
(Hello, Juicero!)  "Disruptive" has become just another advertising 
buzzword, as bogus as any of them, except that it seems to be more useful in 
advertising to investors than to consumers.

IMO the main thing (besides lousy battery management) that held up EVs for 
decades is that very few vehicle buyers cared about the problems they 
solved.  The vast majority of auto buyers don't give a honking hoot about 
their vehicles' emissions.  

In solving problems that vehicle buyers didn't care about, EV makers created 
problems that vehicle buyers DID care about -- range less than a tank of 
gas's, charging time longer than refueling an ICEV, and high purchase price.

(Also, until relatively recently, BIG battery headaches.  It used to be that 
just about every used-EV-for-sale ad said "needs new batteries.")

The nations where EVs have had some success have passed laws to create 
problems that EVs could solve.  Some examples of these are carpool lane 
access, city congestion charges and exclusion days, high taxes on gasoline 
and Diesel fuel, and high purchase and ownership taxes on ICEVs.  

They also paid people to buy EVs with direct and indirect subsidies.  

Wonder of wonders, just as EV proponents predicted 30 years ago, when 
actually carried out aggressively and consistently, legislative EV promotion 
worked.  (See: Norway.)

BTW, don't misunderstand me: I'm not opposed to those incentives!

All that said, I can think of one EV manufacturer that's chosen to deal with 
a few issues that DO somewhat matter to vehicle buyers, issues not 
engendered by legislation.  Those issues include showroom purchase 
experience, service department experience, and vehicle obsolescence.  They 
may have tackled a few others that I don't know about because I'm not 
personallly involved with the company or their cars.  

To solve those problems, they're approaching the business of selling and 
maintaining vehicles in ways that automakers just don't do -- or at least 
mostly didn't, until now.  

Now that, to me, is disruption.  YMMV.

It's Tesla, and what I think is interesting is that they could probably have 
been equally disruptive building ICEVs.  In fact, they'd probably be making 
a healthy profit right now if they had.  I don't know about you, but I"m 
glad that they disrupted Detroit's fat, torpid, it's-always-worked-this-way 
slumber while making EVs.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers - NOT (and apartments)

[Robert Bruninga via EV]

By the way, I had long used the argument that almost 70% of Americans live
in single family - detached homes and so if we got 70% of Americans to
drive EV's (and charge at home) we have solved 70% of the gasoline burning
problem.

That is the national census number.  BUT, it turns out, here in Maryland
and other higher density population states, more than 50% of people live in
apartments and have no access to overnight charging.

So that was an eye opener for me and I had to change my tune.  My tune now
is CHARGING AT WORK on 120v.  Just plug in every day, and pay the $30 per
month for the electricity.  That nicely meets the national average 40 miles
a day Americans drive.
 Then they can use public charging for trips only.

Charging is FIRST AND FOREMOST, a *PARKING* problem.

Bob, WB4APR

On Fri, May 3, 2019 at 2:30 PM Robert Bruninga  wrote:

> > I'm not sure EV charging stations will ever be as prolific as gas
> stations are now.
>
> Gas stations and EV charging are apples and oranges...
>
> Gas cars REQUIRE gas stations once a week for 5 minutes.  The 300 million
> cars are served by about 120,000 gas stations in the USA.  Usually there
> are cars at about half the pumps and about half the time (assume zero
> overnight).  If the average station has 8 pumps then that means 120,000
> times 2 pumps times 5 minutes per day or about 20,000 refueling hours per
> day.
>
> What about when we get to 300M EVs?  Lets assume 80% charge at home
> leaving 60M needing public charging.  Only about 5% need interstate high
> speed charging (30 minutes times 12M) or 6 million high-speed recharging
> hours a day.   Divided by 24 gives 250,000 high speed chargers needed.
>
> That leaves the 9 million needing 3 hours a day at L2 for 36 million L2
> charging hours a day.  Divided by 24 gives about 1,500,000 public L2
> chargers.
>
> As of last year, the count was 16,000.
>
> So I say as I have always said... "anyone who buys an EV with the idea of
> dependence on public charging will be VERY disappointed!
>
> You will always be WAITING in line to get access to the chargter in the
> long run.
>
> Hopefully, once apartments and condos solve the charging at home for
> tenants this problem will be reduced.
>
> Anyone else have better numbers?
>
> Bob, WB4APR
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: EV  On Behalf Of Damon Henry via EV
> Sent: Friday, May 3, 2019 1:46 PM
> To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List 
> Cc: Damon Henry 
> Subject: Re: [EVDL] % Google Maps is NOT a reliable tool to find EVSE %
> (goog-pr)
>
> I'm not sure EV charging stations will ever be as prolific as gas stations
> are now.  There will always be a significant amount of people who charge
> primarily at home, so the demand will be less... Don't know if that is
> good or bad, but I know very few people have their own gas pumps.
>
> Damon
> 
> From: EV  on behalf of EVDL Administrator via
> EV 
> Sent: Wednesday, May 1, 2019 10:39 PM
> To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
> Cc: EVDL Administrator
> Subject: Re: [EVDL] % Google Maps is NOT a reliable tool to find EVSE %
> (goog-pr)
>
> On 1 May 2019 at 18:53, Peri Hartman via EV wrote:
>
> > Presumably you tried fr.chargemap.com, not chargemap.com
>
> Thanks for pointing that out!  Actually I was using chargemap.com, which
> starts off centered on Germany.
>
> At your suggestion I tried fr.chargemap.com, which saves lots of clicking
> and dragging because it's centered on France.  It locates exactly the same
> EVSEs, which I guess makes sense.
>
> > I also found this one:
> > www.bornes-recharge.net  I have no idea
> if it's better.
>
> www.bornes-recharge.net says "This map is
> provided by Chargemap."  So I assume it will be the same.
>
> I guess we're all looking forward to the time when public EVSEs are as
> numerous and accessable as filling stations are now, and you can expect to
> find at least one at nearly every highway junction.
>
> David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
> EVDL Administrator
>
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers

[Lee Hart via EV]

EVDL Administrator via EV wrote:

On 5 May 2019 at 20:36, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:


If a bunch of students can manufacturer a vehicle that seats 4 with a trunk
that can do 400 miles a day that is what GM should be building.


Nope.  Sorry.  GM is a mass market manufacturer.  That's a technical marvel,
not a mass appeal vehicle.  GM will never find a business case in a vehicle
like that.  They wouln't find it even if there were one, and I doubt that
there is.

And if they did, their stockholders would have their CEO out on the street
the following week.  That's the way the market works.  It selects for more
of what made money last year and the decade before that.

I don't expect to ever see a vehicle like the Stella Lux mass-produced in
the US, and probably not anywhere in the world.  I suggest that you get
started building your own.


I don't think the situation is hopeless or impossible. But it is 
certainly difficult.


It's the Innovator's Dilemma. How do you sell a disruptive new product 
in a market already controlled by entrenched competitors? Answer? You 
can't. You have to find, or create a new market, and fly under their 
"rader" until you can get big enough to compete. Like Apple vs. IBM, or 
Amazon vs. Sears.


--
Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers - NOT

[Lee Hart via EV]

Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:

Good counter arguments!  Thanks


You're welcome. And Thank YOU for such a cogent description on the 
number of gas stations and amount of "fueling time that would be needed. 
I'm no researcher, so it's hard for me to dig up this kind of information.


--
"If I could own the gas stations, I'd GIVE the cars away." (Henry Ford, 
after being blocked from buying up gas stations by the Justice Dept.)

--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers - NOT

[Lee Hart via EV]

Cor van de Water via EV wrote:

Anecdotal evidence: I have charged a grand total of 1 time at the public
charging station across the street...  So, for me the balance lies at over
99% private charging. I suspect others have similar experience and this
skews the picture quite a bit away from public charging.


Same for me. :-)


Apartment dwellers either need to rely on workplace charging or get a
(shared) charger installed, but are likely to use more public charging
otherwise. So, with more people buying EVs, including those without garage
or private driveway, the need for public charging likely increases more
than linear.


I agree. Right now, probably 99% of EV owners charge at home. As long as 
that stays true, no one can monopolize charging.


The problem is that we represent less than 1% of the motoring public. 
The other 99% can easily be swayed by arguments like "EV owners are tax 
cheats, cause blackouts, and could burn down your apartment building 
with their dangerous illegal practices. We need these new rules to 
protect you from the damage they cause."


To create a monopoly, they have to get these laws passed *before* any 
significant percentage of EVs owners are out there to complain if they 
interfere with charging at home.


--
Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers

[Lee Hart via EV]

Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:

For all those reasons, Lee mentioned, light weight solar vehicles make sense. 
If a bunch of students can manufacturer a vehicle that seats 4 with a trunk 
that can do 400 miles a day that is what GM should be building. Lawrence Rhodes


Ah, but what you and I want is not what the big auto companies want. 
They want vehicles with as high a profit margin as possible, where they 
have total control over parts and service.


They have become giants. And giants need a lot of food to survive. 
"Food" in their case is money. The nature of Wall Street demands that 
they grow; or die. So they will do *anything* to get it to survive!


--
Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

On 5 May 2019 at 20:36, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:

> If a bunch of students can manufacturer a vehicle that seats 4 with a trunk
> that can do 400 miles a day that is what GM should be building.

Nope.  Sorry.  GM is a mass market manufacturer.  That's a technical marvel, 
not a mass appeal vehicle.  GM will never find a business case in a vehicle 
like that.  They wouln't find it even if there were one, and I doubt that 
there is.  

And if they did, their stockholders would have their CEO out on the street 
the following week.  That's the way the market works.  It selects for more 
of what made money last year and the decade before that.

I don't expect to ever see a vehicle like the Stella Lux mass-produced in 
the US, and probably not anywhere in the world.  I suggest that you get 
started building your own.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 
Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not 
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers

[Lawrence Rhodes via EV]

For all those reasons, Lee mentioned, light weight solar vehicles make sense. 
If a bunch of students can manufacturer a vehicle that seats 4 with a trunk 
that can do 400 miles a day that is what GM should be building. Lawrence Rhodes
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers - NOT

[Cor van de Water via EV]

Anecdotal evidence: I have charged a grand total of 1 time at the public
charging station across the street, due to not planning ahead. Every other
time, I charge at home or work.
So, for me the balance lies at over 99% private charging.
I suspect others have similar experience and this skews the picture quite a
bit away from public charging.
Apartment dwellers either need to rely on workplace charging or get a
(shared) charger installed, but are likely to use more public charging
otherwise. So, with more people buying EVs, including those without garage
or private driveway, the need for public charging likely increases more
than linear.
Cor.

On Sun, May 5, 2019, 10:36 AM Robert Bruninga via EV 
wrote:

> Good counter arguments!  Thanks
> Bob
>
> On Sun, May 5, 2019 at 12:50 PM Lee Hart via EV  wrote:
>
> > Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:
> > >> I'm not sure EV charging stations will ever be as prolific as gas
> > > stations are now.
> > >
> > > The 300 million cars are served by about 120,000 gas stations in the
> > USA...
> > > What about when we get to 300M EVs?  Lets assume 80% charge at home
> > > leaving 60M needing public charging... 250,000 high speed chargers
> > needed.
> >
> > Which is just two per gas station. Certainly possible.
> >
> > > That leaves the 9 million needing 3 hours a day at L2 for 36 million L2
> > > charging hours a day.  Divided by 24 gives about 1,500,000 public L2
> > > chargers.
> >
> > Roughly 12 times the number of gas stations. But L2 chargers can be put
> > almost anywhere; any business can have one. So it is quite conceivable
> > to have that many.
> >
> > > So I say as I have always said... "anyone who buys an EV with the idea
> of
> > > dependence on public charging will be VERY disappointed!
> >
> > Right now, yes! To my mind, it is GOOD not to depend on public charging.
> > Charge at home!
> >
> > But as an engineer, I see no technological challenges with a system
> > where home charging is somehow prevented, so that paid public charging
> > is the only option. The oil companies could convert their gas stations
> > to "filling stations" with EV fast chargers. The power companies could
> > get into the public charging business, and license smaller L2 chargers
> > the same way banks set up ATMs in every mall and big-box store. There
> > are easily 12 times more places where such EVSE's could be put than just
> > at gas stations. Any public place you park your car could have one.
> >
> > Cities, states, stores, the oil companies, power companies, and whoever
> > makes these EVSE's would all see it as a new source of profits. All of
> > them would lobby for such a solution.
> >
> > They get complete control over the price and delivery. They can tax the
> > bejesus out of the electricity, just like fuel taxes. They can limit or
> > shut down the chargers in case of brownouts, or even "borrow" power from
> > your EV battery packs when needed.
> >
> > THAT's my worry.
> >
> > --
> > Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
> > Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
> > --
> > Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
> > ___
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers - NOT

[Robert Bruninga via EV]

Good counter arguments!  Thanks
Bob

On Sun, May 5, 2019 at 12:50 PM Lee Hart via EV  wrote:

> Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:
> >> I'm not sure EV charging stations will ever be as prolific as gas
> > stations are now.
> >
> > The 300 million cars are served by about 120,000 gas stations in the
> USA...
> > What about when we get to 300M EVs?  Lets assume 80% charge at home
> > leaving 60M needing public charging... 250,000 high speed chargers
> needed.
>
> Which is just two per gas station. Certainly possible.
>
> > That leaves the 9 million needing 3 hours a day at L2 for 36 million L2
> > charging hours a day.  Divided by 24 gives about 1,500,000 public L2
> > chargers.
>
> Roughly 12 times the number of gas stations. But L2 chargers can be put
> almost anywhere; any business can have one. So it is quite conceivable
> to have that many.
>
> > So I say as I have always said... "anyone who buys an EV with the idea of
> > dependence on public charging will be VERY disappointed!
>
> Right now, yes! To my mind, it is GOOD not to depend on public charging.
> Charge at home!
>
> But as an engineer, I see no technological challenges with a system
> where home charging is somehow prevented, so that paid public charging
> is the only option. The oil companies could convert their gas stations
> to "filling stations" with EV fast chargers. The power companies could
> get into the public charging business, and license smaller L2 chargers
> the same way banks set up ATMs in every mall and big-box store. There
> are easily 12 times more places where such EVSE's could be put than just
> at gas stations. Any public place you park your car could have one.
>
> Cities, states, stores, the oil companies, power companies, and whoever
> makes these EVSE's would all see it as a new source of profits. All of
> them would lobby for such a solution.
>
> They get complete control over the price and delivery. They can tax the
> bejesus out of the electricity, just like fuel taxes. They can limit or
> shut down the chargers in case of brownouts, or even "borrow" power from
> your EV battery packs when needed.
>
> THAT's my worry.
>
> --
> Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
> Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
> --
> Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: [EVDL] Availability of public chargers - NOT

[Lee Hart via EV]

Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:

I'm not sure EV charging stations will ever be as prolific as gas

stations are now.

The 300 million cars are served by about 120,000 gas stations in the USA...
What about when we get to 300M EVs?  Lets assume 80% charge at home
leaving 60M needing public charging... 250,000 high speed chargers needed.


Which is just two per gas station. Certainly possible.


That leaves the 9 million needing 3 hours a day at L2 for 36 million L2
charging hours a day.  Divided by 24 gives about 1,500,000 public L2
chargers.


Roughly 12 times the number of gas stations. But L2 chargers can be put 
almost anywhere; any business can have one. So it is quite conceivable 
to have that many.



So I say as I have always said... "anyone who buys an EV with the idea of
dependence on public charging will be VERY disappointed!


Right now, yes! To my mind, it is GOOD not to depend on public charging. 
Charge at home!


But as an engineer, I see no technological challenges with a system 
where home charging is somehow prevented, so that paid public charging 
is the only option. The oil companies could convert their gas stations 
to "filling stations" with EV fast chargers. The power companies could 
get into the public charging business, and license smaller L2 chargers 
the same way banks set up ATMs in every mall and big-box store. There 
are easily 12 times more places where such EVSE's could be put than just 
at gas stations. Any public place you park your car could have one.


Cities, states, stores, the oil companies, power companies, and whoever 
makes these EVSE's would all see it as a new source of profits. All of 
them would lobby for such a solution.


They get complete control over the price and delivery. They can tax the 
bejesus out of the electricity, just like fuel taxes. They can limit or 
shut down the chargers in case of brownouts, or even "borrow" power from 
your EV battery packs when needed.


THAT's my worry.

--
Fools ignore complexity. Pragmatists suffer it. The wise avoid it.
Geniuses remove it. -- Alan Perlis, "Epigrams on Programming"
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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