Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Death is a pretty unambiguous indicator, and there are standard codes found in electronic health records. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICD-10 From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 9:22 PM To: The

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Statistics + pathogenesis would be ideal but the latter is still not fully understood? --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, May 6, 2020, 10:16 PM Marcus Daniels wrote: > If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

If there was ever a time statistical inference could work, it is when there are millions of infected people, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and a database that tracks biological and behavioral things about them. From: Friam on behalf of Joe Spinden Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Comple

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html From: Friam on behalf of David Eric Smith Reply-To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2020 at 9:02 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Stephen is messing with us. --- Frank C. Wimberly 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, Santa Fe, NM 87505 505 670-9918 Santa Fe, NM On Wed, May 6, 2020, 9:42 PM wrote: > I love that, Frank. A digital version of “this is not a cigar”. > > > > Thank you, > > > > n > > > > Nicholas Thompson > > Emeritus Profess

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I love that, Frank. A digital version of “this is not a cigar”. Thank you, n Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.cl

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

What about hand soap. By the way, the morse code in the Friam signature says, "Random dots and dashes" . On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 9:21 PM wrote: > By the way, I just read an article in the NYT which assures me that a > “sanitizer” is not guaranteed to kill viruses. > > > > Oh, gosh! > > > > Nick

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

By the way, I just read an article in the NYT which assures me that a “sanitizer” is not guaranteed to kill viruses. Oh, gosh! Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

This endless parsing of the data strikes me as too difficult to accurately assess. A simpler approach might be to compare overall death rates from a comparable period, tentatively attributing at least a large part of the numerical differences to the main changed variable: COVID-19. On 5/6/

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I think that is a little pessimistic. If you look at, say, the UK Biobank, they have interviews with each subject characterizing things like work history, cognitive function, mental health, noise pollution and so on.But they also have details on mortality and genomic sequences. From: Fria

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

When we have comprehensive data — say a year from now — there will be hundreds of unexplained anomalies. All of the models and all of the formulas will be made more and more complex to try to account for those anomalies, the epidemiological and statistical equivalent of astronomical epicycles.

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I just found (maybe just added?) the mode setting for this one to change deaths to deaths/100,000 https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-mexico settings menu-icon in the upper-right hand side of each chart.   Seems to persist across locations. > FWIW the population density o

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

FWIW the population density of New Mexico is 17/mile^2 and in India 1202/mile^2. On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 4:13 PM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > I don't think so. Doubling time (under non-ideal lockdown conditions) > conflates density with the other measures. If a sparsely populated area has > the same doubling

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I don't think so. Doubling time (under non-ideal lockdown conditions) conflates density with the other measures. If a sparsely populated area has the same doubling time as a densely populated area, the doubling time graph might gloss over how *badly* the sparsely populated area is doing in contr

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Doesn’t doubling time handle that problem? N Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Fria

Re: [FRIAM] green swans

Steve, "my interest in this ..." The company I was (am) starting in Amsterdam is dedicated to the idea of using software to make the world a better place. We will only work with companies that are value driven, committed to environmental and social good, and are human affirming (e.g. empowering

[FRIAM] FRIAM Regular Session 9 a - Invitation to edit

I've shared an item with you: FRIAM Regular Session 9 a https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Cgu8mvXeGOCyVG2fRjwY646nv1D7n4Zl6hFhWkWkXf0/edit?usp=sharing&invite=CMPjt40P&ts=5eb3286c It's not an attachment -- it's stored online. To open this item, just click the link above. Same time, same pla

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Nick, Do not know for sure, just as I do not know off the top of my head how an experiment might be defined. Technically it would not be "embodied mind" as much as "supersized mind." i tend to use "embodied mind" as a shorthand umbrella term for a continuum that begins with consciousness "in

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Well, there's this one. But there's still an enrollment bias: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04334954?term=serosurvey&cond=covid-19&draw=2&rank=1 I suspect a truly random sampling for either drawing blood or sticking a swab up your nose is a bit difficult ... maybe a bit less irritating

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

The denominator is the elephant in the room that nobody seems to want to talk about. Without knowing how many people in the population at large are infected, how the hell can we learn anything about how serious Covid-19 is? Without a doubt, a large percentage of the people who are hospitalized for

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

On 5/6/20 1:54 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > My  brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia.  The map > Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot.  Atlanta dominates > the population of the State.  Southwest Georgia has a much higher > concentration.  Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, h

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

My brother lives in Dahlonega, Lumpkin County, Georgia. The map Georgia map surprises me Atlanta is not a hotspot. Atlanta dominates the population of the State. Southwest Georgia has a much higher concentration. Georgia, unlike Pennsylvania, has a large population of rural African Americans.

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Aha! Thanks. I missed a 4. The JHU data shows 204441, not 20441. [sigh] On 5/6/20 12:42 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote: > Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. > state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The > county seat is Gainesvill

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

> > Hall County is a county located in the north central portion of the U.S. > state of Georgia. As of the 2010 census, the population was 179,684. The > county seat is Gainesville. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/ provides maps of deaths and cas

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Hall: 20,441 DeKalb: 759,297 On 5/6/20 12:08 PM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > Glen, those Hall/King comparisons are pretty dramatic.  Go Kemp! What is the > population of the two counties?  -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIA

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Roger, Glen, Steve Sorry. Not one of my better posts. I certainly didn’t mean to imply that anybody was doing fine. I guess I began to worry that deaths in those more rural states were being masked by the fact that people were staying away from hospitals, but that doesn’t make any sense

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

I read something in the past week that argued the red counties in the battleground states were showing a very bad trendline, that the rates of infection looked ready to surge, but I haven't been able to find the original source again. It was a University researcher who was tracking county statisti

[FRIAM] ABM of COVID19

In the current issue of the "Complex Systems" journal Christopher Wolfram has published an Agent Based Model of the COVID19 disease. Looks like a simple SIR model. Christopher is the son of Stephen Wolfram.https://www.complex-systems.com/current/-J..-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-.

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Well, this goes back to the branch Jochen started a long time ago regarding path dependence and the hard problem. The question I asked was how do we partition the state? Some goes inside the *body*, some goes outside the body. I'd argue they're both stigmergic. It's obvious why the state accumul

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

On 5/6/20 6:37 AM, uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > There's a paper by Shalizi or Crutchfield, maybe, that talks about tradeoffs > between space and time in computation that I'm pretty sure was posted on this > list at some point. That type of evaluation criteria applied to both the > computational model of C.

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Dave, Is this embodied mind? Or Stygmergy? Or are they the same? I just don't know. Josh? Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Message- From: Friam On Beha

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Thanks, Steve, for the comment and link. My go-to, until the last few days, was a map the Times was putting up of doubling time by county. They clearly still have the data, and do produce it by state, but I can no longer find the national map, which was showing nicely the spread of the diseas

Re: [FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Nick - https://rt.live/  helps to illustrate some of Rachel's hair-on-fire.   NOT because the absolute numbers are (or will be) outrageous, but because the *rates* are high.    Take a look at the states who have R0 > 1.0 ... all midwest-plains.   If you have a small town with 0 cases, it is natu

[FRIAM] What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? - The New York Times

Hi, Everybody This article greatly puzzled me because it seemed to eviscerate it self in the last few paragraphs. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us. html My main concern here is the degree to which I am being deluded by my addiction to the Rachel Madd

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

EricS The language "experience as" versus "experience of" will be very useful in one-on-one conversations with Nick if he will tolerate them. But also in conversations with various people about differents modalities of psychotherapy. Thank you very much. Frank On Wed, May 6, 2020 at 12:07 AM D

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

Excellent examples! For controlled experiments, though, I'd prefer to avoid testing subjects most people already think of as having an inside context ("inner world", experience-as, "what it's like to be a", etc. for anyone who might be triggered by the word "context" >8^). So, I wouldn't want to

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

An observation that might lead to a testable hypothesis of embodied mind: High school students spent the morning, in a classroom, learning comparative fractions, taking tests that proved they could solve this kind of problem. In the afternoon the went across the street to the supermarket and ask

Re: [FRIAM] Movement vs. Behavior, and what's in the Black Box

While lying in bed this morning, waiting patiently for the alarm to go off, moving nothing but whatever autonomous functions are required to keep me alive, I *struggled* to find a biological example of behavior that doesn't involve movement. The best I could come up with was the change in color

Re: [FRIAM] Phone voice quality

check out consumer cellular. they have offered phones for the elderly (which you will be some day) optimized both visually (big buttons, backlit keys) and aurally. Don't know if they still do, but Mary's mother (98 this year and still using her phone) has one. Service areas suck. davew On Wed

Re: [FRIAM] Warring Darwinians for Glen, Steve

So, all to the good. > I do question the heuristic value of the idea of the impenetrable interior, > but if somebody wants explore it as a scientific approach, even a pragmatist > should be willing to explore its empirical implications. What are the > scientific implications of believing tha