I was thinking about this discussion, oddly enough, in the shower this morning when the water started to get a little cold.
I realized that this question is much more complicated for me than setting a simple monetary value for me to undertake an unpleasant-but- not-actually-harmful activity. Here's more or less how my thinking breaks down: * If the counterparty is incredibly rich, the amount would need to be significant to that person or *incredibly* significant to me. I would take a million bucks from a billionaire, but not $500. * if the counterparty is at about my level of wealth, the amount would need to be enough so that the other person would be mildly annoyed when I win. Unless I don't like the person, in which case I'd want them to be more annoyed. * if the counterparty is in serious material want, I would not be inclined to take a significant-to-that-person amount of money from them. J On Sun, 2024-01-28 at 12:06 +1300, Charles Haynes via Silklist wrote: > Somehow I never saw Jeremy's message that you replied to. Hm... > Jeremy - feel free! It can be fun :) > > Though I am a degenerate gambler. I once made the apparently > outrageous statement that most gambling was a way to purchase > variance, and that like most markets you should figure out how much > you wanted to buy and at what price and how much effort you were > willing to go to to get a good deal. In the discussion I said that I > was basically willing to take any fair bet at correct odds as long as > the amount wasn't big enough to actually hurt me financially. I think > it started because people were making fun of someone in the news who > had bet some large amount of money on a coin flip*. I offered that I > was willing to bet $100 on a coin flip, someone took me up on it, I > lost, and paid them on the spot. > > — Charles > > * coin flips have been shown to be slightly biased, and some people > are skilled enough to deliberately bias them further. Beware. > > > On Sun, 28 Jan 2024 at 05:48, Chris Kantarjiev via Silklist > <[email protected]> wrote: > > This triggered an interesting memory, which I never really > > considered "betting behavior" but is similar: someone long ago > > would challenge strongly voiced opinions with "huh, would you bet > > your car on that?" > > > > And I used to have some friends with whom I kept a running tally of > > nickel bets. > > > > Neither quite the same as what you describe - certainly never an > > effort to determine a line - but pointing at perhaps a similar > > idea, that we value "free" things less than those that have a > > value, however small. > > > > > > On January 26, 2024 9:16:05 PM PST, Jeremy Bornstein via Silklist > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Hearing this makes me want to take more extreme opinions around > > > you. > > > > > > > > > On Sat, 2024-01-27 at 12:44 +1300, Charles Haynes wrote: > > > > One other way that economics (and specifically behavioural > > > > economics) has changed my way of looking at the world is that > > > > I'm now more aware of my own paradoxical behaviours. Like the > > > > endowment effect and the sunk cost fallacy. I have also found > > > > one tool to be particularly valuable and that's the notion of > > > > "setting a betting line." Which is a way of measuring my > > > > confidence in something. One thing I've noticed though is that > > > > people who do this are not always completely honest with > > > > themselves. In theory you should be willing to take "either > > > > side" of such a bet, but when I set a line like that, I'm often > > > > reluctant to take one side of the bet - which means I've set > > > > the line wrong and I'm lying to myself about how likely I > > > > really think something is. > > > > > > > > I'm not sure I explained that well, but in practice it works > > > > out to me asking people "how much are you willing to bet" if > > > > they say something I disagree with - and sometimes ending up > > > > actually making wagers with people. If you see me say something > > > > you think is outrageous I encourage you to ask me to put my > > > > money where my mouth is. :) > > > > > > > > — Charles > > > > > > > > On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 23:01, Jeremy Bornstein > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > I would definitely do this for USD $500/day. For one, I am > > > > > convinced that it's in the realm of things that I (and most > > > > > people) would get used to quickly enough for the unpleasant > > > > > aspects to fade to tolerability or even pleasure. Also, I may > > > > > have some minor masochistic tendencies... but not enough of > > > > > them to do this for $100/day. > > > > > > > > > > I don't believe absolutes such as "no amount of money" for > > > > > things like this. Imagine a million dollars, or more. Even > > > > > for people who have sufficient access to funds for their own > > > > > direct use, that would represent a huge amount of leverage > > > > > for helping other people, which I think most folks would > > > > > eventually decide made the agony worth it. > > > > > > > > > > Of course, this potentially opens up the thought experiment > > > > > to other things even less universally appealing than cold > > > > > showers, but I'm not sure that actually discussing those > > > > > possibilities would be sufficiently edifying or amusing for > > > > > us. > > > > > > > > > > Jeremy > > > > > > > > > > P.S. Apologies for the previous empty mails... it looks like > > > > > my mail client had been in a running broken state. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Clearly I cannot afford this but I still want to test the > > > > > > longevity/sustainability of this decision - that USD 500 is > > > > > > enough. > > > > > > > > > > > > Can you convince yourself that you receive 500 dollars > > > > > > worth of health, motivation and resilience benefits to > > > > > > withstand 180 seconds of 12-15 centigrade water every. > > > > > > Single. Day. for a week? > > > > > > > > > > > > My assumption is that you’ll decide it isn’t worth it, even > > > > > > for USD 500. > > > > > > > > > > > > My motivation for cold showers (6 months of pure agony, > > > > > > I’ll add) is twofold and deeply personal -watching my > > > > > > father die -cancer- and be miserable about being cold, and > > > > > > my own mental health benefits enormously from it (it is the > > > > > > hardest thing I can do in a day, everything else is a piece > > > > > > of cake). But no amount of money would incentivise me to do > > > > > > this. > > > > > > > > > > > > Huda Masood > > > > > > +91 9886796967 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 02:37, Charles Haynes > > > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > I would do the shower thing for somewhere between USD$100 > > > > > > > and USD$500 per day. ($100 is probably not enough, $500 > > > > > > > definitely is.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > One learning about money is that looking at investments > > > > > > > daily makes me unhappy and that for me the "asymmetry of > > > > > > > happiness" is real - that losing $100 makes me more > > > > > > > unhappy than winning $100 would (and it's not just about > > > > > > > the non-linearity of the value of money, but it may be an > > > > > > > endowment effect). So in circumstances where good and bad > > > > > > > things are both likely to happen relatively frequently I > > > > > > > try to "smooth out" the frequency by checking less often. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 07:52, Huda Masood via Silklist > > > > > > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > Tell me then, in what other areas of your life have you > > > > > > > > applied the new learnings with money? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I find the human relationship with money > > > > > > > > extraordinarily interesting. My current social > > > > > > > > experiment is asking how much could I pay them to take > > > > > > > > a 3 minute cold shower every day, for a whole year. No > > > > > > > > hot water before or after. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I’ve had no takers so far. Everyone wriggles out with > > > > > > > > some condition or the other. No amount of money is > > > > > > > > incentive enough. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > But they’d happily do it if family was in danger or > > > > > > > > they could work half time for the same pay. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I find that very telling. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Huda Masood > > > > > > > > +91 9886796967 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, 25 Jan 2024 at 18:27, Christopher A Kantarjiev > > > > > > > > via Silklist <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > On 1/24/24 10:16 PM, Udhay Shankar N via Silklist > > > > > > > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Very interesting thought. The most thought- > > > > > > > > > provoking part is "changing > > > > > > > > > > your mental model" which resonated with me, because > > > > > > > > > the mental model > > > > > > > > > > which causes this to be an issue in the first place > > > > > > > > > is "Am I being taken > > > > > > > > > > advantage of?" (which is completely different from > > > > > > > > > "Can I afford this?" > > > > > > > > > > which requires a separate thread, I think.) > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yes ... I grew up in a household where my father > > > > > > > > > tracked every penny of > > > > > > > > > expenses and basically invented a double-entry > > > > > > > > > bookkeeping system so he > > > > > > > > > could resolve his cash accounts Sunday night. I guess > > > > > > > > > it was "fun" for > > > > > > > > > him, but hell for everyone else when he wandered the > > > > > > > > > house saying "where > > > > > > > > > did I spent twelve cents?". > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > It came both from a history of not having enough (he > > > > > > > > > lived through WWII > > > > > > > > > in Germany) and a fear of being taken advantage of > > > > > > > > > ... which I, somewhat > > > > > > > > > unfortunately, inherited. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Those two things were very intertwined in my attitude > > > > > > > > > towards money, and > > > > > > > > > this experience was a big step in learning to let go > > > > > > > > > of them. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >
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