(Warning: long, informative post)

Actually I thank the US banking industry for this one.

Specifically, it was all started by Bank of America.  (The same
people that are currently giving credit cards to illegal aliens,
but that's another story).

The banks are the ones who gave out extreme risk home loans like
candy bars to people who couldn't afford the payments and were
gambling on house flipping to "kite" their debts forward and be
able to stay solvent.

It didn't help that there were countless TV shows, magazines and
web sites that were warning people that they shouldn't miss out
on the "incredibly profitable" house flipping craze.

When the real estate market saturated and went flat, the flippers
started going down in financial flames like mayflies around a
campfire.

This, of course, was inevitable and quite predictable.

This in turn left the banks with a huge number of defaulted
loans, deflated and unsellable real-estate that was often in a
state of unlivable mid-reconstruction and a greatly diminished
incoming loan repayment revenue.

Somehow, the banks didn't see what was about to happen and got
badly bit by the loan default Tsunami.  Or maybe nobody wanted to
be the first one to "blink" and maybe miss out on another year of
wild but ultimately unsustainable loan profits.

This left the US banking industry in a greatly weakened state and
a number of big investment house names on Wall Street were
suddenly on the brink of default. 

So then the feds started printing money with wild abandon to loan
to the banks to keep them solvent and to avoid a cascade effect
that would result in a complete "depression era" style US economy
collapse.

Their plan is that this will soften the impact of the banking
crisis by spreading the "market value correction" across the
entire US economy, which incidentally, is mostly sustained by
middle-class Americans.  People who's retirement funds are the
majority financial instrument in the market.

As an interesting point of trivia, the concept of a "retirement
nest egg" mostly didn't exist before WWII.  Back when extended
families and a rural existence was more the norm and not the
exception.  The kids generally inherited the family farm and the
grandparents migrated into less demanding family roles.

Anyway this means a lot more paper money in circulation with
less gold behind each dollar.

This greatly depressed the value of the US dollar on the
international financial market.

International investors started switching their investments away
from the US stock market and for the most part, to the next best
thing, which was oil futures on the international commodities
market.

Note that a significant portion of those investors are once again
middle class Americans and their retirement funds.

The Chinese will buy oil at any price.  Actually they "must", or
the momentum of *their* economy will falter and cause a massive
Chinese financial disaster.

Combine the demand for international oil futures with the Chinese
demand for oil at any cost with the weakened US dollar and we get
the devastating US oil prices.

All of the big oil companies are publicly traded corporations who
are required by US law to make their best effort to legally 
maximize the investments of their investors.  If they were to
attempt to suppress their own profits from high gas prices, they
would be promptly buried in investor class action suits and FTC 
investigations.

*end of history lesson*

---------

*start of speculations*

Fuel prices are not going to go down.  The Federal Reserve, with
full support from both political parties, will continue flooding
the market with printed money.

US dollar will continue to slowly weaken on the international
market. The Federal Reserve "experts" believe this approach is
preferable to an uncontrolled roller coaster ride in the banking
industry.  Eventually it will stabilize and then begin to build
again as the feds begin removing the excess paper money (and
recovering the low interest federal loans to troubled banks) from
the US money supply.

Energy costs will continue to go up.  An unavoidable consequence
to doing a (hopefully) controlled deceleration of the US economy,
giving it time to absorb the mortgage/banking crisis and
eventually get back on an adjusted and stable growth track.

Meanwhile, solar energy and other alternative energy markets will
experience *explosive* growth.  Eventually (measured in years)
that will lead to market over-saturation and a "market meltdown",
where most of the mid-sized energy companies will either be
absorbed or go into default.

There will also be an explosion of "snake oil" alternative energy
salesmen, selling bogus hybrid car conversion kits and just about
anything else that might be passed off as an "energy saving" or
"energy generating" device.  BEWARE.

Hybrid, high-efficiency and all-electric cars are going to be all
the rage for the next five years or so.  Most will be so expensive
that it will make more sense to keep driving your old gas guzzler
and to supplement it with a bicycle, motorcycle or scooter.  A 
good bicycle can be good for your health too.  High efficiency 
cars that actually make financial sense are probably still seven or
more years away.

In the near term, OPEC might step in and implement price caps to
keep the cost of a barrel of oil from going too high.  This makes
sense from an OPEC long-term financial perspective.  They don't 
want the world to be weaning itself off of their addition to 
middle-east oil any time soon.

If you have investments in the stock market, hopefully they are
all in market index funds and not all in a small handful of
companies.  If not, then now might be a good time to convert your
investments into reliable and safe market index funds, like the
S&P 500.  I would suggest taking the long view and take solace
that the market will recover (it always does) and that your
investments will ultimately come through unscathed.  This "long
view" might be four to ten years for a full recovery.

People over 55 will be the hardest hit by this current market
slump because they will need their retirement money much sooner
than younger investors, who will be able to wade through this
slump and in fact, can benefit from making good index fund
investments now, while the market is undervalued.

If you have any investments in any air-travel related companies,
I would suggest moving them NOW to an S&P 500 index fund.

There might be a rebirth of the use of railroads to move product
and people.  Trains are still one of the most energy-efficient
methods of transportation in existence.

I hope this helps or at least entertains!

"My advice is always free and worth every penny!"

-Christopher Erickson
Network Design Engineer
5432 E. Northern Lights Blvd., Suite 529
Anchorage, AK 99508
N61° 11.710' W149° 46.723'
www.data-plumber.com



> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On 
> Behalf Of Eugenio Perea
> Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 12:24 PM
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: Re: [Treo] Fw: An open letter to all airline customers
> 
> 
> Responding to the original letter -that places the blame on 
> speculators- 
> here is a very interesting piece from the Economist, stating the 
> opposite case: 
> http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357
> 
> Cheers,
> 
> Eugenio
> 
> L . . . wrote:
> > maybe they can make hybrid planes :)))
> >
> > I heard that some airlines were grounding the 747s. I 
> suppose the 777 can make it across the pond.
> >
> > On Fri, Jul 11, 2008 at 1:50 PM, Scandals & Animals <
> > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >
> >   
> >> ...... Original Message .......
> >> On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:48:44 -0400 "Craig Froehle"
> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> >>     
> >>> Perhaps the consumer airline industry doesn't deserve to 
> survive in
> >>> its current state.  Could it be that there is simply no 
> way to fly a
> >>> person half-way across the globe for anything less than 
> several times what the typical consumer is willing to pay?
> >>>       
> >> I hadn't realized this, but I heard that a 747 holds 
> 53,000 gallons of
> >> fuel, and jet fuel is well over $7 a gallon now.  I don't 
> know how many of
> >> those gallons it takes to go from NY to LA, but that has 
> to cost an awful lot.
> >>
> >> I heard an airline exec interviewed, and he said soon, air 
> travel will be
> >> only for the rich.  The days of the common man flying 
> anywhere except under
> >> unusual circumstances are gone unless the price of oil 
> plummets.  Think of
> >> what that does to the Hawaiian tourism industry.

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