Christopher, this HAS to be one of the best off-topic posts ever on this list. Very informed review and I think your speculation is spot on. Thanks. - Craig
..... Original Message ....... On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:09:45 -0800 "Christopher Erickson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >(Warning: long, informative post) > >Actually I thank the US banking industry for this one. > >Specifically, it was all started by Bank of America. (The same >people that are currently giving credit cards to illegal aliens, >but that's another story). > >The banks are the ones who gave out extreme risk home loans like >candy bars to people who couldn't afford the payments and were >gambling on house flipping to "kite" their debts forward and be >able to stay solvent. > >It didn't help that there were countless TV shows, magazines and >web sites that were warning people that they shouldn't miss out >on the "incredibly profitable" house flipping craze. > >When the real estate market saturated and went flat, the flippers >started going down in financial flames like mayflies around a >campfire. > >This, of course, was inevitable and quite predictable. > >This in turn left the banks with a huge number of defaulted >loans, deflated and unsellable real-estate that was often in a >state of unlivable mid-reconstruction and a greatly diminished >incoming loan repayment revenue. > >Somehow, the banks didn't see what was about to happen and got >badly bit by the loan default Tsunami. Or maybe nobody wanted to >be the first one to "blink" and maybe miss out on another year of >wild but ultimately unsustainable loan profits. > >This left the US banking industry in a greatly weakened state and >a number of big investment house names on Wall Street were >suddenly on the brink of default. > >So then the feds started printing money with wild abandon to loan >to the banks to keep them solvent and to avoid a cascade effect >that would result in a complete "depression era" style US economy >collapse. > >Their plan is that this will soften the impact of the banking >crisis by spreading the "market value correction" across the >entire US economy, which incidentally, is mostly sustained by >middle-class Americans. People who's retirement funds are the >majority financial instrument in the market. > >As an interesting point of trivia, the concept of a "retirement >nest egg" mostly didn't exist before WWII. Back when extended >families and a rural existence was more the norm and not the >exception. The kids generally inherited the family farm and the >grandparents migrated into less demanding family roles. > >Anyway this means a lot more paper money in circulation with >less gold behind each dollar. > >This greatly depressed the value of the US dollar on the >international financial market. > >International investors started switching their investments away >from the US stock market and for the most part, to the next best >thing, which was oil futures on the international commodities >market. > >Note that a significant portion of those investors are once again >middle class Americans and their retirement funds. > >The Chinese will buy oil at any price. Actually they "must", or >the momentum of *their* economy will falter and cause a massive >Chinese financial disaster. > >Combine the demand for international oil futures with the Chinese >demand for oil at any cost with the weakened US dollar and we get >the devastating US oil prices. > >All of the big oil companies are publicly traded corporations who >are required by US law to make their best effort to legally >maximize the investments of their investors. If they were to >attempt to suppress their own profits from high gas prices, they >would be promptly buried in investor class action suits and FTC >investigations. > >*end of history lesson* > >--------- > >*start of speculations* > >Fuel prices are not going to go down. The Federal Reserve, with >full support from both political parties, will continue flooding >the market with printed money. > >US dollar will continue to slowly weaken on the international >market. The Federal Reserve "experts" believe this approach is >preferable to an uncontrolled roller coaster ride in the banking >industry. Eventually it will stabilize and then begin to build >again as the feds begin removing the excess paper money (and >recovering the low interest federal loans to troubled banks) from >the US money supply. > >Energy costs will continue to go up. An unavoidable consequence >to doing a (hopefully) controlled deceleration of the US economy, >giving it time to absorb the mortgage/banking crisis and >eventually get back on an adjusted and stable growth track. > >Meanwhile, solar energy and other alternative energy markets will >experience *explosive* growth. Eventually (measured in years) >that will lead to market over-saturation and a "market meltdown", >where most of the mid-sized energy companies will either be >absorbed or go into default. > >There will also be an explosion of "snake oil" alternative energy >salesmen, selling bogus hybrid car conversion kits and just about >anything else that might be passed off as an "energy saving" or >"energy generating" device. BEWARE. > >Hybrid, high-efficiency and all-electric cars are going to be all >the rage for the next five years or so. Most will be so expensive >that it will make more sense to keep driving your old gas guzzler >and to supplement it with a bicycle, motorcycle or scooter. A >good bicycle can be good for your health too. High efficiency >cars that actually make financial sense are probably still seven or >more years away. > >In the near term, OPEC might step in and implement price caps to >keep the cost of a barrel of oil from going too high. This makes >sense from an OPEC long-term financial perspective. They don't >want the world to be weaning itself off of their addition to >middle-east oil any time soon. > >If you have investments in the stock market, hopefully they are >all in market index funds and not all in a small handful of >companies. If not, then now might be a good time to convert your >investments into reliable and safe market index funds, like the >S&P 500. I would suggest taking the long view and take solace >that the market will recover (it always does) and that your >investments will ultimately come through unscathed. This "long >view" might be four to ten years for a full recovery. > >People over 55 will be the hardest hit by this current market >slump because they will need their retirement money much sooner >than younger investors, who will be able to wade through this >slump and in fact, can benefit from making good index fund >investments now, while the market is undervalued. > >If you have any investments in any air-travel related companies, >I would suggest moving them NOW to an S&P 500 index fund. > >There might be a rebirth of the use of railroads to move product >and people. Trains are still one of the most energy-efficient >methods of transportation in existence. > >I hope this helps or at least entertains! > >"My advice is always free and worth every penny!" > >-Christopher Erickson >Network Design Engineer >5432 E. Northern Lights Blvd., Suite 529 >Anchorage, AK 99508 >N61° 11.710' W149° 46.723' >www.data-plumber.com > > > >> -----Original Message----- >> From: [email protected] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On >> Behalf Of Eugenio Perea >> Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 12:24 PM >> To: [email protected] >> Subject: Re: [Treo] Fw: An open letter to all airline customers >> >> >> Responding to the original letter -that places the blame on >> speculators- >> here is a very interesting piece from the Economist, stating the >> opposite case: >> http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670357 >> >> Cheers, >> >> Eugenio >> >> L . . . wrote: >> > maybe they can make hybrid planes :))) >> > >> > I heard that some airlines were grounding the 747s. I >> suppose the 777 can make it across the pond. >> > >> > On Fri, Jul 11, 2008 at 1:50 PM, Scandals & Animals < >> > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> > >> > >> >> ...... Original Message ....... >> >> On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:48:44 -0400 "Craig Froehle" >> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> >> >>> Perhaps the consumer airline industry doesn't deserve to >> survive in >> >>> its current state. Could it be that there is simply no >> way to fly a >> >>> person half-way across the globe for anything less than >> several times what the typical consumer is willing to pay? >> >>> >> >> I hadn't realized this, but I heard that a 747 holds >> 53,000 gallons of >> >> fuel, and jet fuel is well over $7 a gallon now. I don't >> know how many of >> >> those gallons it takes to go from NY to LA, but that has >> to cost an awful lot. >> >> >> >> I heard an airline exec interviewed, and he said soon, air >> travel will be >> >> only for the rich. The days of the common man flying >> anywhere except under >> >> unusual circumstances are gone unless the price of oil >> plummets. Think of >> >> what that does to the Hawaiian tourism industry. > > >------------------------------------ > >Yahoo! Groups Links > > >
