I suspect either Cuomo did not really say that, or if he said it, he is wrong. Note that the decision desks are pretty much firewalled off from the news desks at all outlets, so Cuomo has no role in making projections, and probably does not know more about it then the rest of us watching closely.
The NBC Decision Desk has said they won’t make calls in any race until they are 99.5% confident. That is not a metaphor, that is a concrete statistical standard (almost three standard deviations). I am confident Biden is going to win PA, have been since very early Wed morning. I am 95% confident. Without having access to exact information and doing the precise math, I’m not sure I am 99.5% confident. This is the Decision Desk’s job, and they really don’t want to be wrong. And here is what Nate Silver wrote about a half hour ago a, using the AP standard (can be read in his running blog here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/ “...The AP will not call a race if the margin falls within the mandatory recount range or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted. That’s pertinent in Pennsylvania, for instance, where the recount threshold is 0.5 percent <https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-recount-thresholds.aspx>. Currently, Biden leads by 0.43 percentage points in Pennsylvania <https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/> as additional mail ballots are counted. That’s going to keep growing — probably to around 1 percent — as additional ballots are counted. So could the race get called when Biden’s lead hits 0.5 percent? Actually, I think that’s decently likely, at least for some of the decision desks (keep in mind that not everyone necessarily uses the AP’s exact standards). But there is also that second provision: “or if it could fall into that range as votes are counted.” So in theory, the AP would have to be satisfied that not only will Biden maintain his lead but also that he’ll maintain a lead of 0.5 percentage points once provisional ballots are counted. That is a higher standard. I’d consider it essentially certain that Biden will win Pennsylvania, barring unexpected legal challenges. Is it also essentially certain that he’ll win by 0.5 percentage points or more? I think you could argue the point based on those provisional ballots <https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324884308767674368?s=20>, but I’d probably come down on the side of “yes” on that question too, at least to the standards that decision desks usually use <https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-decision-desk-wont-project-the-winner-of-a-state-until-its-99-5-sure/>. Nonetheless, 0.5 percent is a higher threshold than one vote. And if we’re still waiting for calls throughout the day, that may be the reason why depending on what each network’s policy is and how they’re interpreting it.“ On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 4:26 AM Joe Hass <[email protected]> wrote: > This is disingenuous bullshit. If the standard on Tuesday for Illinois is > different than the standard on Saturday for Georgia, then that's a *you* > problem. At that point, the media should do one of two things: > > 1. Openly admit that they have changed their standards and justify their > reasoning for doing so. > 2. Simply announce that they've called the states in question "impossible > to call", are going to now treat the current vote total as gospel, and only > when it becomes mathematically impossible for one of the candidates to > surpass the other will they award the electoral votes. > > But knock this (expletive) shit off. > > On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 3:52:02 AM UTC-6 Dave Sikula wrote: > >> Apparently (and I'm getting this second-hand from Twitter, so use at >> least a grain of salt), Chris Cuomo admitted on CNN tonight that part of >> the reluctance to call the races is that Trump has lied about the process >> so much that they need to be 100% certain, rather than somewhere in the 90s. >> >> While I understand that mentality, it also strikes me as similar to what >> the Democrats do in trying to appease people who would never watch, >> believe, or vote for them in the vain hopes of appealing to their >> (non-existent) better natures. Yes, there would be an "I told you so" if >> they declared Biden the winner and Trump inexplicably pulled off an >> electoral Hail Mary, but the troglodytes are already claiming it's fake >> news, so there's really nothing to be lost. >> >> --Dave Sikula >> >> On Saturday, November 7, 2020, 12:58:40 AM PST, JW <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> >> > At this point many including myself are wondering if news outlets are >> > reluctant to call the race out of fear of what Trump will say/do as >> > reprisal. >> >> I doubt it. The East Cupcake Pennysaver may be worried about blowback, >> but the media whose calls we care about are well enough established to >> withstand whatever grief they'd get, or are getting for waiting. >> >> I think this is the residue of 2000. No doubt stringent standards were >> put into place to make sure that no calls are made prematurely; the penalty >> for being wrong is much greater than the reward for being the first to be >> right. And no matter what any news organization reports, or any candidate >> claims, nothing is official until the states release their final totals, >> whenever that may be. >> >> Meantime, the reporting is out there for us to draw our own conclusions. >> > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/726a836a-b954-497d-ace5-8cbba85d60f0n%40googlegroups.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/726a836a-b954-497d-ace5-8cbba85d60f0n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- Sent from Gmail Mobile -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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