Nate Silver has a thankless job (luckily he is making a lot of money, so doesn’t need thanks). No matter how many times and how many different ways he tries to explain the nature if probabilistic prediction, most people will neither understand nor care.
My Electoral College prediction map, which I made Sunday night, based on analysis from Nate and others like him, looks like it will be pretty good: I had Biden getting NC instead of GA, otherwise it looks exactly like the current map using where each candidate is ahead in counted votes. Nate had Biden winning the popular vote by 8 points, looks like it will end up being between 4 and 5. Nate told us that if Biden’s popular vote lead fell under 5 points there was like a 33% chance he could lose the EC. Nate doesn’t do polling folks; he tries to combine polling results done by others to make best predictions about the range of outcomes possible. On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:01 AM 'Bob Jersey' via TVorNotTV < [email protected]> wrote: > But of course, some consider it more important that Silver admit he isn't > perfect, to which he replied "F*** you, we did a good job"... > > > https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-nate-silver-fires-back-at-fivethirtyeight-critics-20201105-d5ho3nfkmrc2lo7tsags6jtdi4-story.html > (link/possible > $) > > B > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/bdf4e999-088d-49c4-9459-0e986bdb1466n%40googlegroups.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/bdf4e999-088d-49c4-9459-0e986bdb1466n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- Sent from Gmail Mobile -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAKGtkYL-ON9zD4-k0VcNmO1k80OfEGPMEj_TzbQdSeU_0dnUoQ%40mail.gmail.com.
