On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 12:09 PM, blaze spinnaker <[email protected]>wrote:
> Come on Kevin, you know how this works. > > In the face of new evidence (Pekka Patent, full throated defense from > co-author) we need to update our priors. > ***The Pekka patent has nothing to do with Rossi. And a co-author full throated defense should have been baked into your oddsmaking. But by going from 10:1 down to 3:1 over this flimsy level of development, you've change the odds by 700%. That would mean if you stick around another week or two, your odds will be 1:1 or even 2:1 FOR Rossi. Only now are you doing your due diligence. > > The universe is not static. What's interesting really is not whether or > not the eCat is real, but rather getting an accurate estimate of the > probability of it being real at any point in time. > ***That was the beauty of Intrade. The odds were agreed upon between buyer and seller. > >
