I am seeing a future that is very much a mix of fiber, coax, wireless
and twisted pair. Somewhat like it is now. I think we will see some
ultra-high bandwidth roll-outs over all mediums that dwarf what we see
in most situations today. I do see an emerging gravitation toward fiber
/ wireless as the predominant technologies for broadband deployment. We
live in a time when the promise of $500 - 1.25 Gbps radios is not too
far off. I am not talking about junk spectrum here. I am talking about
licensed 70 to 90 Ghz millimeter-wave technology. These are licenses we
can all get easily.
I was talking to Jack Rickard not long ago about this technology and its
impact going forward. I did not understand the advantages of moving the
semiconductor platform for these millimeter-wave radios from SiGe
(Silicon Germanium) to CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor)
that I had heard others touting as the next big move in this budding
industry. Jack explained it to me as only he can. He said, "Shit John,
it's like the difference between building chips out of diamonds or rusty
nails.". It is an economic advantage obviously when it is put like that.
I wish you guys could have been on that call. It was a trip.
Anyway, I think there are some places where any one technology platform
is the best choice and I think the delivery technologies are all
continuing to mature and advance. Prices continue to fall and
performance continues to increase in DSLAMs, Fiber Systems, Wireless
Radio Technology, DOCSIS, etc. I see no reason to think there is a dead
technology in the lot. I simply think that some will prove to be better
in some applications than others. I do think that fiber is going to be a
clear winner in the numbers game of which technology serves the highest
number of bits in and out. That said I do not think people can fathom
how much data will be "airborne" within the next few years.
I have two "airborne" DS3 links on their way to me today. I believe
these may last three years in their placement before being edged outward
in the network. This is how my network grows. It parallels someone
else's post here recently.Very little of my network is ever "Dead"
technology. It simply gets re-allocated to the outermost edges of the
network to lower demand areas as needs increase and change. When I
outgrow the DS3 radio at my main tower then I am sure there will be $500
1.25 Gbps radios ready to put in their place. It is just the natural
progression of the cycle of technology it seems to me.
Let's just hope Uncle Sam does not screw things up too much under the
new FCC leadership which seem to want to thwart the efforts of a growing
and thriving industry. If any of you believe we have a "WISP friendly"
FCC right now then I assure you that the facts do not support it. Do not
wring your hands in fear though. As long as we can all work together as
a group we will fight the battles for policy and law for this industry.
I do not plan to sit idly by and let others put up barriers to
opportunities. I plan to help make policy and law work for a balanced
and fair framework we can all work within.
WISPs are now officially very much on the radar. We have made an
impression. Now Goliath is scared. Congratulations WISPs. You are
officially important enough to be feared and controversial. In the FCC
right now the term "WISP" is well known and understood from a policy
standpoint. The term "WISP" is being used in policy hearings, legal
debates, rulemakings, etc. We are officially a real industry. Now we
just have to start handling this industry instead letting others handle
it for us. If you are not already involved then it is time for you to
pay up, show up or shut up. Pick your path. There is work to do.
Merry Christmas,
Scriv
PS. You would think I would lighten up at Christmas time! Sorry so deep
today guys! :-)
George wrote:
Money wise you may be right, not sure of the entire situation that
john is involved with.
But the focus today is on fiber. And how the community you serve
perceives your company is very important.
We talked about fiber in 2001 and today people still ask us when the
fiber is going to be deployed.
Lately our City has been doing telecommunications studies and fiber is
the key word.
Everyone who studies the future of broadband and connectivity comes to
the conclusion that fiber is the technology that has the most
potential in terms of potential to keep up with and surpass any thing
that comes down the pike.
When everyone was copper a lot of us isps were pioneering wireless,
now that wireless is the hot topic, we need to keep our minds open on
what is available to deploy and fiber is the other option.
In Johns case, which is similar to mine, Charter is rolling out fiber
builds.
They are leap frogging ahead.
Charter and Telco is our competition and we have to consider our
future when considering what we deploy today and what our long term
investments are.
I believe our initial fiber deployment is the biggest hurdle.
I myself am working towards a fiber build out to jump ahead of what is
coming down the pike.
I am not saying the end of wireless is in sight, I am saying we need
to mature our networks to what the future demands will require.
My opinions.
George
Brian Rohrbacher wrote:
Agreed, but if you can do it for 2 grand why spend 12? If the ebay
radios are reliable, then skip the fiber in my opinion. Might as
well take the 10 grand that is left over and install another 25
subs. ;)
George wrote:
I do not believe you laying fiber is at all a bad sign to your
customers.
You have been on the cutting edge of technology with wireless, why
would you not do the fiber to continue on with your cutting edge
technology deployment.
It almost sounds like you believe wireless is better than fiber, but
we all know fiber/wireless is the end game.
If you are fiber and wireless, you are the cutting edge leader.
My opinion.
George
John Scrivner wrote:
I need some feedback from the collective. I am looking for a
backhaul radio link for my main tower. 5.8 Ghz is fully utilized at
this location. It is only a 1500 foot shot. I would like at least
50 meg full or 100 meg half duplex. I would like this solution to
be under $8K or so. 5.3 Ghz is pretty open here. Does a solution
exist? I can lay fiber for about $12K or so. I am considering doing
that but I think laying fiber for my main connection when I am a
fixed broadband wireless provider sends the wrong message to my
potential customers when Charter is going all over town selling
fiber connections. I welcome your feedback.
Scriv
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