I am seeing a future that is very much a mix of fiber, coax, wireless and twisted pair. Somewhat like it is now. I think we will see some ultra-high bandwidth roll-outs over all mediums that dwarf what we see in most situations today. I do see an emerging gravitation toward fiber / wireless as the predominant technologies for broadband deployment. We live in a time when the promise of $500 - 1.25 Gbps radios is not too far off. I am not talking about junk spectrum here. I am talking about licensed 70 to 90 Ghz millimeter-wave technology. These are licenses we can all get easily.

I was talking to Jack Rickard not long ago about this technology and its impact going forward. I did not understand the advantages of moving the semiconductor platform for these millimeter-wave radios from SiGe (Silicon Germanium) to CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor) that I had heard others touting as the next big move in this budding industry. Jack explained it to me as only he can. He said, "Shit John, it's like the difference between building chips out of diamonds or rusty nails.". It is an economic advantage obviously when it is put like that. I wish you guys could have been on that call. It was a trip.

Anyway, I think there are some places where any one technology platform is the best choice and I think the delivery technologies are all continuing to mature and advance. Prices continue to fall and performance continues to increase in DSLAMs, Fiber Systems, Wireless Radio Technology, DOCSIS, etc. I see no reason to think there is a dead technology in the lot. I simply think that some will prove to be better in some applications than others. I do think that fiber is going to be a clear winner in the numbers game of which technology serves the highest number of bits in and out. That said I do not think people can fathom how much data will be "airborne" within the next few years.

I have two "airborne" DS3 links on their way to me today. I believe these may last three years in their placement before being edged outward in the network. This is how my network grows. It parallels someone else's post here recently.Very little of my network is ever "Dead" technology. It simply gets re-allocated to the outermost edges of the network to lower demand areas as needs increase and change. When I outgrow the DS3 radio at my main tower then I am sure there will be $500 1.25 Gbps radios ready to put in their place. It is just the natural progression of the cycle of technology it seems to me.

Let's just hope Uncle Sam does not screw things up too much under the new FCC leadership which seem to want to thwart the efforts of a growing and thriving industry. If any of you believe we have a "WISP friendly" FCC right now then I assure you that the facts do not support it. Do not wring your hands in fear though. As long as we can all work together as a group we will fight the battles for policy and law for this industry. I do not plan to sit idly by and let others put up barriers to opportunities. I plan to help make policy and law work for a balanced and fair framework we can all work within.

WISPs are now officially very much on the radar. We have made an impression. Now Goliath is scared. Congratulations WISPs. You are officially important enough to be feared and controversial. In the FCC right now the term "WISP" is well known and understood from a policy standpoint. The term "WISP" is being used in policy hearings, legal debates, rulemakings, etc. We are officially a real industry. Now we just have to start handling this industry instead letting others handle it for us. If you are not already involved then it is time for you to pay up, show up or shut up. Pick your path. There is work to do.
Merry Christmas,
Scriv

PS. You would think I would lighten up at Christmas time! Sorry so deep today guys! :-)



George wrote:

Money wise you may be right, not sure of the entire situation that john is involved with.

But the focus today is on fiber. And how the community you serve perceives your company is very important.

We talked about fiber in 2001 and today people still ask us when the fiber is going to be deployed. Lately our City has been doing telecommunications studies and fiber is the key word.

Everyone who studies the future of broadband and connectivity comes to the conclusion that fiber is the technology that has the most potential in terms of potential to keep up with and surpass any thing that comes down the pike.

When everyone was copper a lot of us isps were pioneering wireless, now that wireless is the hot topic, we need to keep our minds open on what is available to deploy and fiber is the other option.

In Johns case, which is similar to mine, Charter is rolling out fiber builds.

They are leap frogging ahead.

Charter and Telco is our competition and we have to consider our future when considering what we deploy today and what our long term investments are.

I believe our initial fiber deployment is the biggest hurdle.

I myself am working towards a fiber build out to jump ahead of what is coming down the pike.

I am not saying the end of wireless is in sight, I am saying we need to mature our networks to what the future demands will require.

My opinions.

George



Brian Rohrbacher wrote:

Agreed, but if you can do it for 2 grand why spend 12? If the ebay radios are reliable, then skip the fiber in my opinion. Might as well take the 10 grand that is left over and install another 25 subs. ;)

George wrote:

I do not believe you laying fiber is at all a bad sign to your customers. You have been on the cutting edge of technology with wireless, why would you not do the fiber to continue on with your cutting edge technology deployment.

It almost sounds like you believe wireless is better than fiber, but we all know fiber/wireless is the end game.

If you are fiber and wireless, you are the cutting edge leader.

My opinion.

George



John Scrivner wrote:

I need some feedback from the collective. I am looking for a backhaul radio link for my main tower. 5.8 Ghz is fully utilized at this location. It is only a 1500 foot shot. I would like at least 50 meg full or 100 meg half duplex. I would like this solution to be under $8K or so. 5.3 Ghz is pretty open here. Does a solution exist? I can lay fiber for about $12K or so. I am considering doing that but I think laying fiber for my main connection when I am a fixed broadband wireless provider sends the wrong message to my potential customers when Charter is going all over town selling fiber connections. I welcome your feedback.
Scriv





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