Folks,
I seem to have too much time on my hands since I'm on vacation. This
thread prompted me to put a quick back of the napkin ROI analysis
together to see which service options I'd want to be pushing on the
market.
What I did was review Bell Canada's service offer - why, because they
offer Wireless, DSL & Fiber based Internet services in competition to
Rogers Cable and Cogeco Cable (ON) and Videotron and Cogeco Cable(Qc)
along with a variety of WISPs, satellite providers, in other words the
entire spectrum of competition. As many of you may know Canada ranks in
the top 10 worldwide for broadband penetration according to the latest
OECD rankings with 23.8% BB penetration, the United States ranked 15th
with 19.6% penetration.
I opted not to include their wireless offer in the model. For the
record their 512/512 Portable Internet service using an AC powered
indoor CPE as the terminal device selling for $17.95/month; they offer a
2000/800 Rural service with either indoor or outdoor CPE beginning at
$40/month; and a 3000/1000 Portable using the same indoor CPE as in the
first offer. All CPE are sold at $99 to the customer.
What I've done is outline the UL/DL speeds, cost per month, and a
sliding scale of oversubscription rates (actual rate used by Bell seems
to be between 20 and 40 based upon historical data depending on take-up
rate in an area. This then generates a kbps / subscriber figure which
was then divided into the capacity per sector (I'm using the average
real world sector capacity from our worldwide base of 7 MHz RedMAX
customers as reported by our Redline Management Suite application that
we use to monitor production networks under a professional services
agreement). I then divided this by the avg kbps/client to calculate the
maximum subscribers per sector. I then took the peak subs multiplied by
monthly ARPU to calculate the monthly and annual peak revenue stream per
sector. The required CAPEX per sector was calculated based upon a
sector controller, shared common costs (GPS, UPS, tower climb, and other
site acquisition costs - WW avg.) and the cost of the number of CPE
required by the peak subscriber calculation. The ROI in months is the
CAPEX divided by the monthly ARPU.
I've highlighted the sweet spot avg 18 month ROI lines in each model
that indicates with between 19 and 229 subscribers, depending upon the
SLA you'd be able to achieve and ROI acceptable to almost any financier
using WiMAX.
Cheers!
Kevin
NOTE: Modeled upon Bell Canada's Internet Service offer when using a
WiMAX BTS to deliver the stated SLAs (all are best effort, residential
services on a 7 MHz channel with mix of LOS and NLOS customers):
Monthly Max Subs per
Sector Monthly ARPU / Annual ARPU / Required CAPEX / ROI
ARPU kbps Down kbps Up Total kbps Oversubscription
kbps Required/Sub 16000 loaded sector loaded sector loaded
sector (months)
$ 17.95 Essential 500 500 1000 40 25
640 $ 11,488.00 $ 137,856.00 $
300,750 26.17949
$ 27.95 Essential+ 2000 800 2800 40 70
229 $ 6,388.57 $ 76,662.86 $
115,607 18.09593
$ 37.95 Performance 7000 1000 8000 40 200
80 $ 3,036.00 $ 36,432.00 $
48,750 16.05731
$ 42.95 MAX10 10000 1000 11000 40 275
58 $ 2,498.91 $ 29,986.91 $
38,932 15.57953
$ 72.95 MAX16 16000 1000 17000 40 425
38 $ 2,746.35 $ 32,956.24 $
29,691 10.81113
Monthly Max Subs per
Sector Monthly ARPU / Annual ARPU / Required CAPEX / ROI
ARPU kbps Down kbps Up Total kbps Oversubscription
kbps Required/Sub 16000 loaded sector loaded sector loaded
sector (months)
$ 17.95 Essential 500 500 1000 30 33
480 $ 8,616.00 $ 103,392.00 $
228,750 26.54944
$ 27.95 Essential+ 2000 800 2800 30 93
171 $ 4,791.43 $ 57,497.14 $
89,893 18.76118
$ 37.95 Performance 7000 1000 8000 30 267
60 $ 2,277.00 $ 27,324.00 $
39,750 17.45718
$ 42.95 MAX10 10000 1000 11000 30 367
44 $ 1,874.18 $ 22,490.18 $
32,386 17.28027
$ 72.95 MAX16 16000 1000 17000 30 567
28 $ 2,059.76 $ 24,717.18 $
25,456 12.35864
Monthly Max Subs per
Sector Monthly ARPU / Annual ARPU / Required CAPEX / ROI
ARPU kbps Down kbps Up Total kbps Oversubscription
kbps Required/Sub 16000 loaded sector loaded sector loaded
sector (months)
$ 17.95 Essential 500 500 1000 20 50
320 $ 5,744.00 $ 68,928.00 $
156,750 27.28935
$ 27.95 Essential+ 2000 800 2800 20 140
114 $ 3,194.29 $ 38,331.43 $
64,179 20.09168
$ 37.95 Performance 7000 1000 8000 20 400
40 $ 1,518.00 $ 18,216.00 $
30,750 20.25692
$ 42.95 MAX10 10000 1000 11000 20 550
29 $ 1,249.45 $ 14,993.45 $
25,841 20.68175
$ 72.95 MAX16 16000 1000 17000 20 850
19 $ 1,373.18 $ 16,478.12 $
21,221 15.45365
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On
Behalf Of Mike Hammett
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2009 1:58 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
2 megs is yesterday's news.
U-Verse is 18/1.5
FiOS is 50/20
Charter has 60/5
Comcast has 50/10
2 megs is 36 times faster than 56k. Charter is 30 times faster than
that.
Why is the wireless world happy with being 10 years behind the wired
world?
-----
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions
http://www.ics-il.com
--------------------------------------------------
From: "Kevin Suitor" <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, March 20, 2009 10:42 AM
To: "WISPA General List" <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
> We have customers worldwide who operate sectors typically with
hundreds
> of residential clients with 2 Mbps downlink / 256 or 512 kbps uplink
and
> some with who run entry level service (by NA standards) of 384 kbps
> downlink / 128 kbps uplink that have an average of 250 clients per
> sector with 6 sectors per BTS in an urban market.
>
> The WiMAX MAC is much more sophisticated than other MACs used in
> wireless networking.
>
> Best Regards,
> Kevin
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
On
> Behalf Of Mike Hammett
> Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2009 2:20 PM
> To: WISPA General List
> Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
>
> More troll than substance but I wouldn't put more than 30 users on a
> WiMAX
> AP anyway... not enough bandwidth.
>
>
> -----
> Mike Hammett
> Intelligent Computing Solutions
> http://www.ics-il.com
>
>
>
> --------------------------------------------------
> From: "Jeff Booher" <[email protected]>
> Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2009 11:28 AM
> To: "'WISPA General List'" <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
>
>> It is not the same gear by any means. Tranzeo's AP is a micro base
>> station,
>> that only supports 30 subscribers.
>>
>> -
>>
>> Jeff
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
> On
>> Behalf Of Marlon K. Schafer
>> Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2009 7:34 PM
>> To: WISPA General List
>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
>>
>> I'm certainly interested in ptmp.
>>
>> The Tranzeo gear is the same as Aperto isn't it?
>> marlon
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Gino Villarini" <[email protected]>
>> To: "WISPA General List" <[email protected]>
>> Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2009 6:35 PM
>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
>>
>>
>>> Ligowave its ptp in 3.65...
>>>
>>> Might wanna look at tranzeo for 3.65 ptmp
>>>
>>>
>>> Gino A. Villarini
>>> [email protected]
>>> Aeronet Wireless Broadband Corp.
>>> tel 787.273.4143 fax 787.273.4145
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
> On
>>> Behalf Of Leon Zetekoff
>>> Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2009 9:32 PM
>>> To: WISPA General List
>>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
>>>
>>> Hi Marlon...I'd look at the Ligowave stuff similar in principle to
> the
>>> UBNT stuff but I think much better. That's what I'd do today.
>>>
>>> Take care leon
>>>
>>> Marlon K. Schafer wrote:
>>>> I'm looking into this too.
>>>>
>>>> So far I can't find a solution for rural towers. A 3 sector
install
>>>> at $20k? Not to service the 20 people that will be able to even
see
>>>> that tower....
>>>>
>>>> Anyone have any better ideas?
>>>> marlon
>>>>
>>>> ----- Original Message -----
>>>> From: "Gino Villarini" <[email protected]>
>>>> To: "Motorola Canopy User Group" <[email protected]>; "WISPA
> General
>>> List"
>>>> <[email protected]>
>>>> Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2009 7:55 AM
>>>> Subject: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Fellow operators:
>>>>>
>>>>> Any updates on your experienes with 3.65 gear? PMP and PTP?
>>>>>
>>>>> Any updates on experiences with:
>>>>>
>>>>> Redline, Aperto, Tranzeo, Vecima, Alvarion, Ligowave, Solectek,
>>>>> Airspan ???
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Gino A. Villarini
>>>>> [email protected]
>>>>> Aeronet Wireless Broadband Corp.
>>>>> tel 787.273.4143 fax 787.273.4145
>>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>
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