Actually this is about exactly what WinPilot (PC version does). The 
thermal databases aren't (AFAIK) publicly available, but the technique 
works and one can add as many IGC files as are available.

There are some guidelines about what IGC files to include that I think 
are more reasonable than just "huge amount" of IGC's. For example the 
manual suggests only to use IGC from days with sparse clouds (or blue 
days) as basically ANY point can trigger a thermal if it just happens to 
be the ONLY spot around where the sun shines.  I also feel that maybe 
just wind direction and/or time of day may not be enough of constraints, 
though I also think that defining more constraints makes it even more 
difficult to utilize any results in real life... ;)

I tried it on WP maybe 6-7 years ago and at least for once I headed to a 
cross on the map and - yes, the thermal was just there :) But many times 
not, the thermals bubbles have their schedule (a few times glided just 
above or below a turning glider and getting nothing) so I think the best 
we may obtain is to notch the probabilities a bit higher - which may be 
a slight advance even with just that.

But of course it doesn't hurt if we produce the mechanics and the 
databases and then possibly fine-tune it.

hannu

On 30.8.2011 21:14, Ronald Niederhagen wrote:
> I think a more promising approach would be to evaluate MANY flight logs
> (IGC files). I heard this idea before but I am not aware of any
> (publicly available) results. The idea, as far as I understand, is to
> evaluate flight logs to see where climb rates were measured, and
> correlate this with the wind conditions, the time of the day,
> temperature, and maybe a couple more parameters. The assumption is that
> thermals build up always in the same spot under certain conditions. I
> guess we all agree to that.
>

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