This is a discussion that will end in no clear definitive way. As at the end of the day, it's not just about runtime vs. runtime and there are many factors in play. Ecosystem vs. Ecosystem, now that's an interesting debate :)
Few points: - Stats are always meet with skepticism. Adobe have expressed that if you don't have 98% installation, then it's a hard road to follow. This is incorrect, QuickTime, Firefox, Chrome etc have had success and it disproves this theory. Furthermore, Adobe have outlined that 18million people per day install Flash (80% of these come from their Installation page and NOT via their updater). I'm no math genius, but 18million per day over a year overshoots 1.4billion. The 1.4billion is the total number of users online today, so basically for a 98% statistics card, something's a little off here. How many times have you installed Flash this year is the question? Think about it.. - Plugin Fatigue is a myth. Word on the street is that people are afraid to install plugins, so less friction is best. I'll inform the 18million people whom just installed Flash today that they are the rare brave ones. Point is, Adobe have proven that despite the popularity with Flash, people are constantly installing plug-ins. It's almost a pre-existing tax that we seem to pay in order to see beyond the page gate of experience. The NBC Olympics here in the US proved this point, people were given an option to install Silverlight and watch High Quality footage of the Olympics or go see the YouTube version. They instead hit the install button and then remarked about how great the quality was. Most folks stayed 20mins+ watching the Olympics, Adobe's best day had 3mins+ because the technology under the hood just couldn't cope with the demand. Point is, when we make bets, we do so with eyes wide open in a proactive fashion, not reactive. - Silverlight has outpaced the Adobe Flex Developers, as if you look at public examples, FlexCoders mailing list (which arguably is the main hub for Flex crowd) rally in at around 10k in total (give or take). Silverlight.NET brings in around 30k+, we expect to see that number swarm even more so that Silverlight 2 is officially out. - Flash is still Flash. Arguments / Stats aside, at the end of the day, .NET crowd didn't swarm to Adobe Flex before Silverlight and its clear they aren't about to. ActionScript is not an attractive language and it doesn't have the tools to back its play that the .NET crowd are accustomed to. I myself, before joining Microsoft was happy in my Flex Builder existence and it wasn't until I actually sat down and used Visual Studio 2005 that I fully appreciated the power of a good tool. The point is, to use Flex etc you have to essentially abandon this tool and start over. When you have deadlines or shipping schedules to meet, the learning curve just got steeper. That and C# is a widely trusted used language - "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" - This all means null. You are all extremely smart individuals, you've managed to overcome the mathematical hurdles put before you, you've achieved success in a variety of ways. You the developer know what you like and don't like, at the end of the day this is about what you feel the most comfortable doing. If Silverlight or Flex appeals to you than that's what you should do, as I'd rather anyone on this list adopts Silverlight because they WANT to not because they are FORCED/ TRICKED into (buyer's remorse is the worst thing to overcome for any business). The world is going through a massive upgrade wave, getting reactive and playing games to stomp out Silverlight is not smart, it's childish and it's a game we won't be playing (we have our vision, they have theirs, difference is we aren't looking over their shoulders). Maturity is something Microsoft has a history of, and we're extremely keen to work with both developer and designer folks to help them create beyond what's expected of them. That's our goal, it's not to squash Adobe or "kill" them as the press outlines, we are more interested in ensuring Microsoft based developers can create compelling & powerful experiences, that's it. The markets are hurting worldwide, Microsoft is able to continue to invest even in these troubled times, so we're still moving our engines full steam ahead and today, one day after the Silverlight release I'm already in discussions with what's left to do in the next release. We're not easing off the pedal, the team are still pumped and excited about this next wave of features. Stick to what you know, and beat us up if we've overlooked anything, as you'd be surprised at how much impact the community at large world-wide has on the product planning decisions. I've seen policies change overnight due to the vocal minority bringing about change. HTH. -- Scott Barnes (Rich Platforms Product Manager) Microsoft Corp.<http://www.microsoft.com/> | Blog: http://blogs.msdn.com/msmossyblog | Mobile: + 1 (425) 802-9503 (New!) Twitter: twitter.com/mossyblog<http://twitter.com/mossyblog> | MSN: [EMAIL PROTECTED]<mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]> P Please consider your environmental responsibility before printing this e-mail -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Jordan Knight Sent: Thursday, October 16, 2008 5:06 PM To: listserver@ozSilverlight.com Subject: RE: [OzSilverlight] Success or Failure of SL.? >>> the client runtime availability (the SL player Vs the Flash Player) and >>> therefore the potential reach of the application (so what's wrong with SL >>> being the perfect choice for inhouse apps with a fixed Windows-based SOE?) end-users already install flash readily - do you think that most end-users wouldn't even know what they are installing anyway and will install Silverlight on request without batting an eyelid? Also... how long until SL2 comes down in Windows Update?? -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Barry Beattie Sent: Friday, 17 October 2008 11:00 AM To: listserver@ozsilverlight.com Subject: Re: [OzSilverlight] Success or Failure of SL.? On Fri, Oct 17, 2008 at 9:12 AM, Damian Edwards <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Actually there's probably less work because XAML is a controlled and strict > environment the tooling is much better and can be trusted more. Using the > designer and palettes in Expression Web or VS2008 to build your CSS styles > is not WYSIWYG and for experienced CSS coders is actually, usually, slower. > Compare that to Blend where creating reusable styles is a joy. so you're saying the development road-bumps are smoothed by the tooling for Silverlight? I wonder what you make of this then? http://www.sdtimes.com/MICROSOFT_CO_SPONSORS_ECLIPSE_PROJECT_FOR_SILVERLIGHT/About_OPENSOURCE_and_SILVERLIGHT_and_ECLIPSE_and_MICROSOFT_and_SOYATEC/32968 Look, at the end of the day, there's not going to be a lot of difference between Flex and Silverlight. an XML-type markup language to describe the UI, a Java-type language for logic and object creation. Meh. Same (basic) leopard, different spots. Tooling *is* important with quality intellesence, and designer-built interfaces. That's why in the Flex world the tool of choice (not exclusive) is built on Eclipse - to smooth the transition for those Java and ColdFusion developers working with Flex. Couple that with Adobe designer products pushing out Flex UI's. Microsoft has always had quality tooling with VisualStudio but where the "battle" will be fought (and it doesn't have to be red team Vs blue team but simply horses for courses) is ... (in order, my opinion) - the client runtime availability (the SL player Vs the Flash Player) and therefore the potential reach of the application (so what's wrong with SL being the perfect choice for inhouse apps with a fixed Windows-based SOE?) - numbers of developers (no point coming up with cool tools/technology if no one uses it) - resources to help those developers (getting started / moving forward) ------------------------------------------------------------------- OzSilverlight.com - to unsubscribe from this list, send a message back to the list with 'unsubscribe' as the subject. Powered by mailenable.com - List managed by www.readify.net No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com Version: 8.0.173 / Virus Database: 270.8.0/1721 - Release Date: 16/10/2008 7:12 PM ------------------------------------------------------------------- OzSilverlight.com - to unsubscribe from this list, send a message back to the list with 'unsubscribe' as the subject. 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