I was just notified that the Szasz Prize ceremony has been moved from
the Cato Institute in D.C. to the Harper Library at the GMU Law School
in Arlington.
The day and time remain the same: September 21, 6 PM.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics
.
Hope to see you there!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://econlog.econlib.org
[M]uch of the advice from the parenting experts is flapdoodle.
But surely the advice
.
--
Anton Sherwood, http://www.ogre.nu/
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://econlog.econlib.org
[M]uch of the advice from the parenting experts is flapdoodle.
But surely
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://econlog.econlib.org
[M]uch of the advice from the parenting experts is flapdoodle.
But surely the advice is grounded in research
suspect it would
have been a far less entrepreneurial and innovative economy in the 90's.
Econometric evidence? As far as I know, there's none either way, and
for obvious reasons. But it makes sense to me.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason
FYI: I'm going to be a regular blogger on Econlib
http://econlog.econlib.org/ for at least a year.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[M]uch of the advice from
For the next month, I am going to be guest blogging at Econlog, the
Liberty Fund website's blog. Expect to see me post three times per
week. The URL is:
http://econlog.econlib.org
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
line is attached.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
But we must deplore and, so far as possible, overcome the evils of
habitual newspaper reading. These evils
There is a press release about high school students' low scores on this
survey of personal finances, but I'm impressed by how well they did.
Unlike beliefs about the economy, at least the modal answer on this
survey is usually right!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
The modal answer (given four choices) was right on the 31 substantive
questions 74% of the time. The first or second most common answer was
right 97% of the time.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http
Robert A. Book wrote:
What's up with question 32? 52% male and 52% female?
I think you have to look at the second column of numbers, the ones not
in bold. Those add up, though I am confused about the first column.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics
Tyler Cowen at www.marginalrevolution.com alerted me to the following
very interesting piece debunking the supposed causal connection between
education and growth:
http://www.spiked-online.com/Printable/000CA640.htm
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics
Can any Canada experts weigh in? That includes all Canadians. Eric?
fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
Yes - evidence: the population of Canada is highly clustered around the
border. I have hunch they would bolt the second the border was opened.
Fabio
On Thu, 8 Apr 2004, Bryan Caplan wrote
My new paper on the economics of mental illness, entitled The Economics
of Szasz can now be downloaded from my webpage at:
http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/szaszjhe.doc
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
/Economics/FarmQnnaire_01_04.pdf
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I hope this has taught you kids a lesson: kids never learn.
--Chief Wiggum, *The Simpsons*
Many smart libertarians I've talked to lately have embraced the view
that divided government (especially Dem president and Rep Congress)
yields the least un-libertarian outcome. Are they right, and if so,
what's the theoretical explanation?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
I'm not the least surprised by these results:
http://poll.excite.com/poll/home.jsp?cat_id=1
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I hope this has taught you kids a lesson
are too high.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I hope this has taught you kids a lesson: kids never learn.
--Chief Wiggum, *The Simpsons*
Dickens
William T. Dickens
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: (202) 797-6113
FAX: (202) 797-6181
E-MAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
AOL IM: wtdickens
Bryan Caplan [EMAIL PROTECTED] 12/31/03 02:07AM
The Political Business Cycle story has not fared
Shameless self-promotion: I'll be subbing in for none other than Gary Becker this
Saturday at the AEA
meetings in San Diego. It will be at the 10:15 1/3 session on Competition chaired
by Andrei Shleifer. Hope to see you there. Topic: Systematically Biased Beliefs
About Cultural Competition,
The Political Business Cycle story has not fared well empirically in recent years
(though Kevin Grier has done interesting work on Mexico's PBC). But it seems
overwhelming in the Oscars. It seems like roughly half of the big nominees get
released in December. What gives? Is there any way to
am
Subject: Economist IQ?
I doubt anyone has hard data on this, but I'm wondering what
people on this
list would guess is the average IQ of Ph.D. economists? Would it
be much
different from the average IQ of Ph.D.s in general?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
complex and differ across different types
of goods) are inadequate. - - Bill
William T. Dickens
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Phone: (202) 797-6113
FAX: (202) 797-6181
E-MAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
AOL IM: wtdickens
--
Prof. Bryan
of spending or
regulation, the median position is usually the same.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
But being alone he had begun to conceive thoughts of
his own
As I announced earlier, the GMU listserv system is changing. Starting
August 15th,
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
will be renamed:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Yes, I know the longer name sucks, but what can you do?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason
the probability of errors
in other areas. But he's a journalist. I expect him to be weak on
analytics. The 5 W's of who-what-when-where-why are what he's trained
to get right.
--Robert Book
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason
as a result of e-mail transmission. Any liability for viruses is
excluded to the fullest extent permitted by law.
**
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
plausible that those with more
children are both older and therefore more experienced, and more
responsible/stable holding age constant. A guy with five kids is going
to be very concerned about remaining employed.
-Jeffrey Rous
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
Sinclair's *The Jungle*. But overall, it has all of
the flaws you would expect in a work of economic history by an
economically semi-literate socialist.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL
this regime change.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The game of just supposing
Is the sweetest game I know...
And if the things we
is the textbook case of
a politician ruined by a scandal. Clinton is probably a bigger
hypocrite given his effort to co-opt the family values stuff.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com
fabio guillermo rojas wrote:
Now Pete Boettke asked me if there are any peoples with the
opposite combination: bad personal culture, good political culture.
The best Prof. Bryan Caplan
Note that insistence on free markets, limited gov't, democracy, etc.
is a pretty recent phenomena - so one
through the whole textbook discussion (unless the
students were largely going to grad school), but I think the point is
worth half a class.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com
. But it can be handled by giving the midterm less
weight to begin with. You have an argument for giving a midterm a lower
weight, but not a variable weight. And I do give the midterm lower
weight.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George
.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
Please take these discussions of personalities off-list. Thanks!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he
-3920 (fax)
+353-21-463-4056 (home)
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
www.ucc.ie/~sjostrom/
- Original Message -
From: Bryan Caplan [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, November 11, 2002 8:35 PM
Subject: EU
It's well-known that expected
.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
that people are perfect or
omniscient. It just says that they are right on average, that their
over-estimates balance out their under-estimates.
RE is often empirically false, but not in the trivial way you're saying.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
/library/Enc/RationalExpectations.html
Eric Crampton
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt
theory says:
1. P(12) increases in p.
2. P(12) decreases in q.
3. P(12) increases in X.
4. P(12) decreases in Y.
and nothing more specific.
Is this inconsistent with any experimental evidence?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George
that are false
not from lack of data, but because the available data has been
improperly processed.
What does improperly processed mean?
Failing to follow Bayesian rules of inference, for starters.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics
!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
-college grads, parents would be a lot less
quick to parrot old cliches about fishing.
Incidentally, most of your arguments (here and later in this discussion)
suggest that people over-estimate the return to education. Is that your
real view?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
that the social return is quite low.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood
of Research
The Independent Institute
100 Swan Way
Oakland, CA, 94621
Tel. 510-632-1366
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post
to voluntarily enroll.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted
was influential early
on in the Nixon administration.
Rodney Weiher
Bryan Caplan wrote:
William Dickens wrote:
As I remember the standard neo-classical answer to this is that the main
source of endogenaity isn't ability bias but discount rate bias - - that
people with below
--
Alexander Tabarrok
Department of Economics, MSN 1D3
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA, 22030
Tel. 703-993-2314
and
Director of Research
The Independent Institute
100 Swan Way
Oakland, CA, 94621
Tel. 510-632-1366
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
I didn't know the answer to this. Does anyone else?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt
Princeton econ really has 0. Kahneman is in the psych department, and
Nash is a senior research mathematician.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He
Shameless self-promotion: I've updated my Academic Economics webpage to
include my new paper with Scott Beaulier, Behavioral Economics and
Perverse Effects of the Welfare State. Check it out at:
http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/bcaplan/econ.html
--
Prof. Bryan
I'm very pleased to tell you that there is a nice comment on my Economic
Journal piece, Systematically Biased Beliefs, in the July issue of the
Royal Economic Society Newsletter. Though they get my name wrong
(George Caplan?!) I still can't complain.
--
Prof. Bryan
, they would suffer a lot of headaches without getting a big
raise. Government subsidies and private charity give universities the
cushion they need to avoid being put out of competition by
performance-oriented for-profits.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
use of it.
Knee jerk use is appropriate in this case. The theoretical objections
are weak, and the empirical evidence in favor is strong.
Fabio
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http
their buildings, etc?
, it would
be possible to recoup the value of improvements. The only difference would
be, that one could not fence off land he was not occupying or using himself,
and charge others for access to it.
From: Bryan Caplan [EMAIL PROTECTED]
What about the effect
preference is whatever his preference is,
within some limits.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
and
other things that get in your personal space. It's not the dollar
value of the issue so much as its immediacy and intrusiveness.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL
that really flip 80% for to 51% against? Highly
implausible.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt
to eliminate unearned benefits is to eliminate the
existence of benefits.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he
.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
(or to make them change
their policy), it's still going strong
I suppose they don't pay the higher insurance premiums - probably 80-90%
of the full amount you pay for a traffic offense.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason
.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
Bryan Caplan wrote:
You can check your public opinion guesses about various kinds
of spending at:
http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/GSS/
Click S for spending.
But first click Subject on the left-hand menu! Sorry.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
Kevin Carson wrote:
From: Bryan Caplan [EMAIL PROTECTED]
First, the roads and airports are already here, so there would not be
much of a decentralizing effect of cutting off subsidies and eminent
domain now.
But because of the effect of subsidies in distorting the market price link
A kind of funny result from Excite's informal poll: 48% surveyed think
that the Dow will rise over the next month, vs. 32% who think it will
fall.
http://poll.excite.com/poll/results.jsp?cat_id=1
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics
the work of thousands of local stores.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have
I think this topic is getting too far afield for armchair. Take it off
the list, if you please. :-)
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote
is the easiest way to share and print your photos:
http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did
and holding in the lowest cost mutual fund is a lot more than .2%
per year.
- - Bill Dickens
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did
and active trading, (b)
managed mutual funds, (c) index funds, and (d) buy and hold with
discount brokers? I would still guess that (c) closes 90% of the
distance between (a) and (d), but I'd like to hear your guesstimate.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
with that.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say, and besides
drastically the 12th-grade high school culture
differs from the 1st-year college culture.
Other ideas?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did not post it because he felt that no one
would have understood what he wanted to say
What exactly is the advantage of double-entry accounting over
single-entry accounting?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He wrote a letter, but did
you
mistakenly count a debit as a credit. The advantage is huge
when you have to do things by hand. It also helps you track errors
more quickly.
What's wrong with negative numbers?!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason
effect? Thaler says average ROR in January is 3.5%, versus an average
of .5% for all other months. Is this another case of basis points being
exagerated into percentage points?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason
, no?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Smerdyakov suddenly raised his eyes and smiled. 'Why I smile
you must understand, if you are a clever man,' he seemed
David Fincher's new movie *Panic Room* may be the finest artistic
expression of game theory around. Beautiful illustrations of commitment
problems, subgame perfection, focal points, backwards induction... And
its pure entertainment.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
wants. They only
support radical reforms conditional on things that are sure to never
happen.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He was thinking
Life expectancy varies widely between countries. When someone moves to
a new country, what best predicts their lifespan? Country of origin?
Or country of destination?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
of any data?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He was thinking that Prince Andrei was in error and did not see the
true light, and that he, Pierre
From Mark Steckbeck:
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He was thinking that Prince Andrei was in error and did not see the
true light, and that he
And of course normal developers always include the negatives.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He was thinking that Prince Andrei was in error and did
who try to buy the negatives from you are precisely the people
who would be willing to pay a lot for extra copies.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He
Fred Foldvary wrote:
--- Bryan Caplan [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
I'm highly dissatisfied with interest group explanations. Simple
reason: Most of the policies traditionally blamed on interest groups are
in fact *popular*. Adoption laws seem like a case where existing
policies
group explanations. Simple
reason: Most of the policies traditionally blamed on interest groups are
in fact *popular*. Adoption laws seem like a case where existing
policies are not popular, though perhaps I'm wrong on that count.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
, but on average it's
better? I doubt many people have that reaction.
As for trans-racial adoption, many people wouldn't want to do it
themselves, but how many actually want to prevent other people from
doing it?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics
Does anyone know education's beta, that is, the correlation between
the return to education and the average market rate of return? How much
of a risk-premium should education have compared to, say, bonds or
stocks?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department
A lot of Soviet citizens, similarly, (retrospectively) claimed they were
happiest during World War II, when something like 1-out-of-8 perished!
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com
My wish (not prediction): Joint prize for Anne Krueger and Gordon
Tullock for rent-seeking.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Familiar as the voice
Here it is, Pierre.
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Familiar as the voice of the mind is to each, the highest merit we
ascribe to Moses, Plato
states are
over-represented in the winner states, and vice versa.
Does anyone know of more systematic evidence on this point?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL
would happen? Does anyone
have hard evidence on this?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Philosophical problems can be compared to locks on safes,
ty, if any?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"[T]he power of instruction is seldom of much efficacy, except in
those happy dispositions where it is alm
?
--
Prof. Bryan Caplan
Department of Economics George Mason University
http://www.bcaplan.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"A man should be sincere, and nobly shrink
From saying anything he does not
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