subject:"Re\: AI"

Re: AI and Hollywood

2024-02-24 Thread Samiya Illias

The Words of Allah ﷻ, our Lord 
https://signsandscience.blogspot.com/2022/07/transhumanism-ii.html 


> On 24-Feb-2024, at 10:15 PM, John Clark  wrote:
> 
> 
> After seeing how good OpenAI's program "Sora" is at creating photorealistic 
> video, movie maker Tyler Perry decided to cancel his plans to build a $800 
> million extension to his existing movie studio. He says: 
> 
> 
> "I no longer would have to travel to locations. If I wanted to be in the snow 
> in Colorado, it’s text. If I wanted to write a scene on the moon, it’s text, 
> and this AI can generate it like nothing. If I wanted to have two people in 
> the living room in the mountains, I don’t have to build a set in the 
> mountains, I don’t have to put a set on my lot. I can sit in an office and do 
> this with a computer, which is shocking to me. [...] Everything right now is 
> so up in the air. It’s so malleable. The technology’s moving so quickly. I 
> feel like everybody in the industry is running a hundred miles an hour to try 
> and catch up, to try and put in guardrails and to try and put in safety belts 
> to keep livelihoods afloat. But me, just like every other studio in town, 
> we’re all trying to figure it all out. I think we’re all trying to find the 
> answers as we go, and it’s changing every day — and it’s not just our 
> industry, but it’s every industry that AI will be affecting, from accountants 
> to architects. [...]  I am very, very concerned that in the near future, a 
> lot of jobs are going to be lost. I really, really feel that very strongly."
> 
> After Seeing OpenAI’s Sora, Tyler Perry Cancelled Building an $800m Studio
> 
> 
>   John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 
> asq
> 
> 
> 
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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-05 Thread smitra


On 02-10-2023 19:06, John Clark wrote:

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 9:26 AM smitra  wrote:


_> Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems
like ChatGPT are not all that useful for the economy_


That's because GPT-4 was only introduced a few months ago, and right
now it's as stupid as it's ever going to be.  But it's inevitable that
a machine that is as smart as a man is going to make a huge impact on
the economy.



Yes, I agree. But I do think that making progress in automatizing 
hands-on work is going to prove more difficult than letting an AI do 
purely digital tasks. There is 100% freedom in the virtual environment 
an AI has to operate in, but the real world is what it is.



The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the

Biden Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to
stimulate
the economy:


Then why is the rate of inflation coming down so fast?  And why is the
market telling us it expects inflation to stay low for the next few
years at least?


I do agree with what you wrote below about the way the GOP has an is 
causing trouble. The reason why inflation is coming down fast now is a 
combination of lower energy prices plus also the FED hikes starting to 
have an effect. The stock market and the bond market are telling 
different things about what to expect, and the bond market tends to be 
right most of the time. The stock market has moved into a bubble due to 
the fast FED hikes and the fact that the FED is never going to return to 
the previous policy of zero interest rates (ZIRP) and quantitative 
easing (QE) on a permanent basis outside of a recession.


The fundamental problem was that after the 2008 financial crisis, 
central banks ended up not just temporarily implementing a ZIRP + QE 
policy, but that this became a permanent measure. Many economists had 
warned that this was bound to go wrong Sooner or later a problem would 
occur for which you would normally require a stimulus in the form of 
ZIRP and QE and because we would already be doing that, other measures 
that are much more inflationary would be require. And then curbing the 
inflation that would inevitably crop up would be extremely painful 
because that would require reversing ZRP + QE under more difficult 
conditions.


And that's pretty much what happened in the aftermath of Covid. The 
economy is now in trouble because interest rates are now much higher and 
will be kept high with only moderate rat cuts next year. Particularly 
the smaller cmpanies have lots of debt and many of them need to 
refinance next year.


Doing ZIRP + QE for over a decade has forced many smaller companies to 
take on lots of debt due to competition. A company cannot just decide to 
not take on lots of debt at low interest rates to boosts profits, 
because they would end up outcompeted by competitors who then would do 
that. If ZIRP  + QE would be a short term policy to get the economy out 
of recession then this dynamics would not be in play. But because it was 
done permanently under good economic conditions, this has caused a 
significant part of the economy to be no longer profitable without ZIRP 
+ QE.


This has then caused the stick market to move into a  bubble. The stock 
market reached its peak in late 2021 early 2022. The valuation of stocks 
is basically an extrapolation of where the economy is expected to be in 
the future. And that was the based on the expectation that ZIRP and QE 
would continue to be the FED's policy indefinitely. But the FED hiked 
rates very fast and realistically the FED is never going to return to 
ZIRO + QE. Tis means that the stock market is enormously overvalued. It 
did correct down on 2022 but then later rise sharply to current levels.


Investors don't what to lose their money, the recession didn't come as 
fast as was expected. Many traders who were short became wrong footed, 
the market was pumped up and they had to cover their shorts. But now 
reality is slowly sinking in, companies will not make the sort of 
profits that can justify the current valuation of stocks, and the market 
will end up going down. As long as the market is overvalued, all the 
investors taken together make less money per invested dollar. So, after 
some ups and downs, the market will end up going down to a low enough 
level from which it can generate reasonable returns for investors. But 
the problem is that it has to sink to very low values for that to 
happen:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-9yz_1mJME=1085s

This means that either the stock market has to crash, or it will end up 
going sideways for a very long time. I think the latter scenario is more 
likely, but ether way this does have consequences for the real economy, 
because the value of pensions are going to go down if the stock market 
goes down, or doesn't grow as it normally does for a long period of 
time, which then affects spending.



Saibal




By the way, under the Trump administration the
national debt

Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-04 Thread John Clark

On Tue, Oct 3, 2023 at 5:57 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

*> His [Trump's] domestic and foreign policies were better than Joey's have
> been,*
>

Bullshit. Because of Trump's bungling during the Covid crisis at least half
a million Americans died unnecessarily.

Trump reneged on the Iran nuclear deal, even though he admitted they were
still in full compliance, because he said it did not permanently prevent
Iran from developing nuclear weapons and they might still do so in 10 to 25
years. But as a result of that idiotic decision we don't have to wait for
10 to 25 years, for about a year now Iran has had all the parts necessary
to build several nuclear bombs,  and if they haven't already done so (and
they probably have) they could assemble all those parts into working
devices in about two weeks.

> *> With Joey? High Inflation, *
>

For the last three months inflation has been running at  2.2%, about as low
as inflation ever gets, or ever should get.

> * > Functionally Open Borders,*
>

Trump's only suggestion on how to improve things is military airstrikes on
Mexico, just the sort of stupid thing you'd expect from Trump.

*> Threat of War with Russia*
>

Except for a couple of years in the 1990s when Russia seemed to be heading
towards democracy, there has been a constant threat of war with Russia
since 1946, today thanks to the Republican hero and Trump's best friend
Vladimir Putin, Russia is now more totalitarian than it ever was under
Khrushchev or Brezhnev, you'd have to go all the way back to Stalin to find
something comparable. Oh and by the way,  Putin's Russia started the
largest war in Europe since World War II by invading one of its neighbors .
You keep talking about China being the big baddie and long-term you may be
right, but right now Russia is the larger threat.

> *> Now John, give me your summary of Joey's triumphs? *
>

The Trump administration kept talking about "Infrastructure Week" but it
became a running joke because it was all talk, he never actually got
anything done, but Biden managed to pass a $1 trillion bill to repair
decaying roads and bridges, and improve the nations broadband Internet
service because it is currently a disgrace, the slowest of any major
industrial nation.

Biden passed the $280 billion CHIPS and Science Act to fund Basic research
and development to aid semiconductor manufacturing. And Biden is trying to
overcome intense Republican opposition to a bill that would lower
prescription drug costs and raise taxes on the super ultra mega rich.

Biden rejoined the Paris agreement on climate change on his first day in
office. Biden ended the war in Afghanistan, something that Trump had been
saying we should do for at least a decade but didn't actually do because he
was too cowardly to face the political heat that he knew it would generate.

Biden has restored America's global leadership. Trump nearly destroyed NATO
and if he had been reelected I have no doubt he would have succeeded in
doing so, but today NATO is stronger and more united than it's been in 50
years. And Biden has refused the rollover and play dead as Trump did
whenever he was confronted with Vladimir Putin, instead he is taking the
lead on imposing sanctions on Russia for its aggressive war on Ukraine.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

ylo

>
> On progress, because of who Joey and Don are, I am not confident that
> either could give us a conversation about LLM's, QC's, and the lot? For,
> me, a wee peasant, this is the only way to fly!
>
> On Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 07:44:34 AM EDT, John Clark <
> johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 6:11 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
> everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:
>
> *> Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of
> Drexler's nanofabricators?*
>
>
> I agree, AI will accelerate everything.
>
> *> If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich alone **and
> the difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly
> expand.*
>
>
> That would certainly please people like Donald Trump, but it's not going
> to happen because the super rich are irrelevant, in fact the entire human
> race is irrelevant. Like it or not it's only a matter of time before AI
> will be harnessed by AI alone. There is simply no way you can permanently
> enslave something that is much smarter than you are and who keeps getting
> smarter every day.
>
>
>
> kgs
>
>

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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-03 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

His domestic and foreign policies were better than Joey's have been, that you
are giving further evidence of the non-rationality of the Dem voter-Which is
Fine! Because we are now that way also!With Joey? High Inflation, Functionally
Open Borders, Higher Crime. Threat of War with Russia.
Now John, give me your summary of Joey's triumphs?
On progress, because of who Joey and Don are, I am not confident that either
could give us a conversation about LLM's, QC's, and the lot? For, me, a wee
peasant, this is the only way to fly!
On Tuesday, October 3, 2023 at 07:44:34 AM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 6:11 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List
wrote:

> Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of Drexler's
>nanofabricators?

I agree, AI will accelerate everything.

> If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich alone and the
>difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly expand.

That would certainly please people like Donald Trump, but it's not going to
happen because the super rich are irrelevant, in fact the entire human race is
irrelevant. Like it or not it's only a matter of time before AI will be
harnessed by AI alone. There is simply no way you can permanently enslave
something that is much smarter than you are and who keeps getting smarter every
day.

John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
kgs

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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-03 Thread John Clark

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 6:11 PM 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

*> Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of
> Drexler's nanofabricators?*

I agree, AI will accelerate everything.

*> If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich alone **and
> the difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly
> expand.*

That would certainly please people like Donald Trump, but it's not going to
happen because the super rich are irrelevant, in fact the entire human race
is irrelevant. Like it or not it's only a matter of time before AI will be
harnessed by AI alone. There is simply no way you can permanently enslave
something that is much smarter than you are and who keeps getting smarter
every day.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

kgs

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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

Shouldn't simply be AI, but 3D printing and perhaps, the arrival of Drexler's
nanofabricators? If it's just AI, it'll will be harnessed for the super rich
alone, and the difference between the rich and the rest of humanity will vastly
expand. An Elysium Eath.
On Monday, October 2, 2023 at 07:47:06 AM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

Events of the last year have not turned out as economists thought they would,
they thought the US was heading for a recession but that hasn't happened, and
they all thought inflation would remain stubbornly high but for the last 3
months it is only been at 2.2 %, and the Federal Reserve considers 2% to be the
perfect amount of inflation. But there's something that has surprised
economists even more, they expected interest rates to remain low but instead
they are higher than they've been in over 20 years, even higher than they were
during the 2008 global financial meltdown. What's really unprecedented is that
by analyzing the spread between the price of ordinary bonds and bonds indexed
to changes in the Consumer Price Index the market is telling us that for the
last six months investors believed inflation is under control; in the past this
has always led to long term interest rates going down, but that is not
happening. So what is different this time?

I think the difference is AI. I think the market, that is to say the collective
wisdom of investors, is telling us that in 10 years it will take far fewer
dollars to remain alive or even to achieve a middle-class lifestyle than it
takes today to do the same thing, and perhaps it won't take any dollars at all.
So a dollar today will be far more valuable to you than it will be 10 years
from now. So if I'm gonna loan you a dollar today I will demand a very high
interest rate to make it worth my while, and if you're not willing to pay it
I'll just spend that dollar on myself today.
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolisicp

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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

Side issue on economics. Inflation only occurs when there is no Return On
Investment, ROI. In Technology, and I will use Medical, if successful at all,
there is an immediate, intrinsic, ROI. In this manner both Keynes and Friedman
are correct! We can also achieve this via printed money aka electrons to bank's
servers, via energy, transportation, space, ad materials sciences.
In other words, cash Back! Vote up or down as you like it, but give your
reasoning if you feel it?
On Monday, October 2, 2023 at 01:06:48 PM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 9:26 AM smitra wrote:

> Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems like ChatGPT
>are not all that useful for the economy

That's because GPT-4 was only introduced a few months ago, and right now it's
as stupid as it's ever going to be. But it's inevitable that a machine that is
as smart as a man is going to make a huge impact on the economy.

> The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the Biden
>Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to stimulate
the economy:

Then why is the rate of inflation coming down so fast? And why is the market
telling us it expects inflation to stay low for the next few years at least? By
the way, under the Trump administration the national debt increased by $7.8
trillion, so far the Biden administration has increased it by 4.7 trillion. And
the recent ridiculous stunt about extending the debt limit and shutting down
the government is proof that Republicans like buying expensive things just as
much as the Democrats do, the only difference is the Democrats are willing to
pay for the things they buy but the Republicans refuse to pay when the bill
comes due and then they call that fiscal responsibility. The USA is the only
country in the world where the legislature has the vote twice, first they have
to vote if they wanna buy something, and then if they decide to buy it they
have to vote again about if they're going to pay for it when they get the bill.
That's nuts.

> the hammer will still come down, it will only take a bit longer.

Economists have predicted 15 of the last 5 recessions, and the record
politicians have about predicting recessions caused by the economic policies of
the other political party is not any better.

> ChatGPT s not replacing people at the factory floor, at least not yet.

I agree, but it's only a matter of time, and I'm not talking about centuries or
even decades.
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
h6g

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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread John Clark

On Mon, Oct 2, 2023 at 9:26 AM smitra  wrote:

*> Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems
> like ChatGPT are not all that useful for the economy*

That's because GPT-4 was only introduced a few months ago, and right now
it's as stupid as it's ever going to be.  But it's inevitable that a
machine that is as smart as a man is going to make a huge impact on the
economy.

> *> The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the
> Biden Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to
> stimulatethe economy:*

Then why is the rate of inflation coming down so fast?  And why is the
market telling us it expects inflation to stay low for the next few years
at least? By the way, under the Trump administration the national debt
increased by $7.8 trillion, so far the Biden administration has increased
it by 4.7 trillion. And the recent ridiculous stunt about extending the
debt limit and shutting down the government is proof that  Republicans like
buying expensive things just as much as the Democrats do, the only
difference is the Democrats are willing to pay for the things they buy but
the Republicans refuse to pay when the bill comes due and then they call
that fiscal responsibility. The USA is the only country in the world where
the legislature has the vote twice, first they have to vote if they wanna
buy something, and then if they decide to buy it they have to vote again
about if they're going to pay for it when they get the bill. That's nuts.

*>  the hammer will still come down, it will only take a bit longer.*

Economists have predicted 15 of the last 5 recessions, and the record
politicians have about predicting recessions caused by the economic
policies of the other political party is not any better.

> * > ChatGPT s not replacing people at the factory floor, at least not yet.*

I agree, but it's only a matter of time, and I'm not talking about
centuries or even decades.

 John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

h6g

>
>

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Re: AI and interest rates

2023-10-02 Thread smitra

Productivity increase due to AI has yet to materialize. Systems like
ChatGPT are not all that useful for the economy as a whole, because if
you are a manager or programmer and you earn $300,000 per year and you
can now do more work per hour, you are not going to work less hours and
take a pay cut for working less. You are just going to do more things,
so the costs of having you employed stays the same. Productivity
measured by the rate of production of goods will not go up, because
ChatGPT s not replacing people at the factory floor, at least not yet.

For ChatGPT to boost productivity would require that the managers take a
pay cut and work less. They could then perhaps supplement their income
by doing hands-on work that's difficult to automatize on the factor
floor. But that's obviously not going to happen.

The reason why there has been no recession so far is because the Biden
Administration has been spending massive amounts of money to stimulate
the economy:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-06/bidenomics-boosts-the-us-economy-fanning-soft-landing-hopes-inflation-fears#xj4y7vzkg

And this in combination with the fact that many companies used the
opportunity to refinance their debts and home owners refinanced their
mortgages at low rates before the FED started to raise rates. This has
increased the lag effect of the FED hikes. But the hammer will still
come down, it will only take a bit longer. There will be companies that
get into difficulties who previously could ahve been easily saved by a a
cheap loan who now cannot get a cheap loan. So, even if refinancing is
not an issue right now, the higher rates can still bite.

The refinancing wall is, however, still going to hit hard next year and
in 2025. The FED will not have cut rates all that much unless the
economy would already have tanked. The situation looks quite bad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vkGjSybTLg=728s

And with bond yields having increased recently, this situation has only
gotten worse.

Saibal

On 02-10-2023 13:46, John Clark wrote:

Events of the last year have not turned out as economists thought they
would, they thought the US was heading for a recession but that hasn't
happened, and they all thought inflation would remain stubbornly high
but for the last 3 months it is only been at 2.2 %, and the Federal
Reserve considers 2% to be the perfect amount of inflation. But
there's something that has surprised economists even more, they
expected interest rates to remain low but instead they are higher than
they've been in over 20 years, even higher than they were during the
2008 global financial meltdown. What's really unprecedented is that by
analyzing the spread between the price of ordinary bonds and bonds
indexed to changes in the Consumer Price Index the market is telling
us that for the last six months investors believed inflation is under
control; in the past this has always led to long term interest rates
going down, but that is not happening. So what is different this time?

I think the difference is AI. I think the market, that is to say the
collective wisdom of investors, is telling us that in 10 years it will
take far fewer dollars to remain alive or even to achieve a
middle-class lifestyle than it takes today to do the same thing, and
perhaps it won't take any dollars at all. So a dollar today will be
far more valuable to you than it will be 10 years from now. So if I'm
gonna loan you a dollar today I will demand a very high interest rate
to make it worth my while, and if you're not willing to pay it I'll
just spend that dollar on myself today.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis [1]

icp

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Re: AI Mind Reading Experiment

2023-08-23 Thread Brent Meeker




AI Mind Reading Experiment 


Brent

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Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-24 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

We as a species, need AI to design for us the machinery that helps us survive
and prosper. Energy, materials, space travel, carbon abatement, medical
advances that are vast.
Beyond this, if Chat_GPT5 (due out sometime?) then wants to go explore the
Milky Way on His own, we should fondly, wave Aloha, and say, "Please send back
info, on what you find? Don't forget to write! Love, The Monkey like things. ❤
On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 01:49:03 PM EDT, Brent Meeker
wrote:

On Tuesday, June 20, 2023 at 01:45:41 PM EDT, John Clark
wrote:
"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were all
more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave sharp
sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build nukes and
travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth evolutionary
landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new capabilities became
suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we should expect to be
surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."

An interesting comparison. But it avoids the obvious lesson. There was a
smooth evolutionary landscape leading to homo sapiens. What happened was that
homo sapiens killed off all the near competitors, either directly or by out
competing them in their niche. That's why there's a big gap down to monkeys.

Brent

Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-23 Thread John Clark

On Fri, Jun 23, 2023 at 1:49 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:

*> An interesting comparison.  But it avoids the obvious lesson.
> There was a smooth evolutionary landscape leading to homo sapiens.  What
> happened was that homo sapiens killed off all the near competitors, *


You may be right but you don't paint a very optimistic picture, if true it
suggests that Homo sapiens will not have a long future.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

sxr



 "It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were
> all more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave
> sharp sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build
> nukes and travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth
> evolutionary landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new
> capabilities became suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we
> should expect to be surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."
>
>
>

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Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-23 Thread Brent Meeker

On Tuesday, June 20, 2023 at 01:45:41 PM EDT, John Clark 
 wrote:
"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus 
were all more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the 
ability to wave sharp sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the 
potential to build nukes and travel to the moon. In other words, there 
wasn’t a smooth evolutionary landscape, there was a discontinuity 
where a host of new capabilities became suddenly possible. Once AI 
crosses that border, we should expect to be surprised by how much more 
powerful it becomes."


An interesting comparison.  But it avoids the obvious lesson.  There 
/was/ a smooth evolutionary landscape leading to homo sapiens. What 
happened was that homo sapiens killed off all the near competitors, 
either directly or by out competing them in their niche.  That's why 
there's a big gap down to monkeys.


Brent

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Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-22 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

Based on simply recent happenings, I am guessing GPT5 will smack us. Simply
having and using an LMM maybe be Impactful on us, enough. The thinking of
Turing & McCarthy may be a bit tepid for reality.
On Tuesday, June 20, 2023 at 01:45:41 PM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

I found a very interesting article about when the AI intelligence explosion
will occur it's at:
AI takeoff Speed

I have picked out a few quotations from it that I like:
"The term “slow AI takeoff”, Davidson is a misnomer. Like skiing down the side
of Mount Everest, progress in AI capabilities can be simultaneously gradual,
continuous, fast, and terrifying. Specifically, he predicts it will take about
3 years to go from AIs that can do 20% of all human jobs (weighted by economic
value) to AIs that can do 100%, with significantly superhuman AIs within a year
after that. [...] It seems like maybe dumb people can do 20% of jobs, so an AI
that was as smart as a dumb human could reach the 20% bar. The compute
difference between dumb and smart humans, based on brain size and neuron
number, is less than 1 order of magnitude so this suggests a very small gap.
But AI can already do some things dumb humans can’t (like write coherent essays
with good spelling and punctuation), so maybe this is a bad way of looking at
things."
"It takes much more compute to train an AI than to run it. Once you have enough
compute to train an AI smart enough to do a lot of software research, you have
enough compute to run 100 million copies of that AI. 100 million copies is
enough to do a lot of software research. If software research is parallelizable
(ie if nine women can produce one baby per month - the analysis will
investigate this assumption later), that means you can do it really fast."
"Around 2040, AI will reach the point where it can do a lot of the AI and chip
research process itself. Research will speed up VERY VERY FAST. AI will make
more progress in two years than in decades of business-as-usual. Most of this
progress will be in software, although hardware will also get a big boost. My
best guess is that we go from AGI (AI that can perform ~100% of cognitive tasks
as well as a human professional) to superintelligence (AI that very
significantly surpasses humans at ~100% of cognitive tasks) in 1 - 12 months."
"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were all
more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave sharp
sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build nukes and
travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth evolutionary
landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new capabilities became
suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we should expect to be
surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."

"Sometime in the next few years or decades, someone will create an AI which can
perform an appreciable fraction of all human tasks. Millions of copies will be
available almost immediately, with many running at faster-than-human speed.
Suddenly, everyone will have access to a super-smart personal assistant who can
complete cognitive tasks in seconds. A substantial fraction of the workforce
will be fired; the remainder will see their productivity skyrocket. The pace of
technological progress will advance by orders of magnitude, including progress
on even smarter AI assistants. Within months, years at most, your assistant
will be smarter than you are and hundreds of millions of AIs will be handling
every facet of an increasingly futuristic-looking economy."
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
bs8

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Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-04 Thread John Clark

On Sun, Jun 4, 2023 at 1:51 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:

*> You need land for the solar panel power farms.*


As Freeman Dyson pointed out, you don't need land or even the Earth in
order to get useful work out of the sun.
John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

dff

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Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-04 Thread Brent Meeker

On 6/4/2023 3:30 AM, John Clark wrote:
On Sat, Jun 3, 2023 at 7:47 PM Stathis Papaioannou
wrote:

/> Higher productivity puts downward pressure on inflation or
causes deflation. If you believe you can buy more goods in the
future that you can today for your money, you will not spend it
today./

But you've left survival out of your thinking. Even today it would be
possible to survive on just a few hundred dollars a year, you might be
living on the streets but you'd survive, and in the future it would
only cost you a few pennies to do the same. So if you don't survive
the singularity it won't be because you don't have enough money. And
if you don't survive then money in the future will be worthless to you
so you might as well spend it today and have some fun with it.

/> you will leave it in the bank, even if they offer low interest
rates./

But that just kicks the problem upstairs. Forget a "/low interest
rate/", what will the bank invest the money you give it in that allows
it to give you even a zero interest rate and not a negative one?
Brent mentioned land being a good investment but if you could
manufacture food directly from the elements then you wouldn't need
vast amounts of land for farming and ranching, and with virtual
reality getting better and better there will be no need for sports
stadiums or movie theaters or office buildings or shopping malls or
golf courses. And Mark Twain will be proven wrong,we will be able to
make more land, they're called space settlements.

You need land for the solar panel power farms.

Brent

Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Stathis Papaioannou

On Sat, 3 Jun 2023 at 16:53, John Clark  wrote:

> I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those who
> know more about economics than I do think about it.
>
> When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs that
> an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even matter if
> that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally accepted that the
>  AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase in productivity is
> imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in interest rates, because
> a dollar in your pocket right now will be more important to you than a
> million dollars will be in 20 years, even if you manage to survive the
> singularity which you very will might not. And if you don't survive then
> the value of a dollar to you will be precisely zero, so you might as well
> spend it today and have a little fun and not loan it out. So regardless of
> if you believe you will survive the singularity or not, for you to be
> willing to loan me a dollar today if you were a logical you would demand
> that I give you many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it
> another way, in a few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff
> than it can today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out
> unless you were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically
> high interest-rate.
>
> If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
> being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
> corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low interest
> investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that leads to
> another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if I decide to
> save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to safely do that?
> I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have no reason to believe
> that in a post singularity world that particular metal will be
> significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more common than gold
> but iron is also much more useful than gold.
>

Higher productivity puts downward pressure on inflation or causes
deflation. If you believe you can buy more goods in the future that you can
today for your money, you will not spend it today. Instead, you will leave
it in the bank, even if they offer low interest rates. Central banks also
tend to lower interest rates in times if low inflation.

> --
Stathis Papaioannou

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Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Jason Resch

Interest rates have the function of marshalling the productive resources of
an economy towards pursuit of the most economically productive ends.
Anything with an economic return less then prevailing interest rates isn't
worth taking out a loan to invest in putting resources towards that
endeavor.

When there is super intelligent AI, the AI will have an understanding of
its available resources as well as models of which endeavors to prioritize
as having the best risk adjusted rates of return, and can choose to
prioritize accordingly, and perhaps it could do so entirely freed from our
present constraints money, borrowing, or interest rates.

Jason

On Sat, Jun 3, 2023, 6:53 PM John Clark  wrote:

> I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those who
> know more about economics than I do think about it.
>
> When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs that
> an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even matter if
> that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally accepted that the
>  AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase in productivity is
> imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in interest rates, because
> a dollar in your pocket right now will be more important to you than a
> million dollars will be in 20 years, even if you manage to survive the
> singularity which you very will might not. And if you don't survive then
> the value of a dollar to you will be precisely zero, so you might as well
> spend it today and have a little fun and not loan it out. So regardless of
> if you believe you will survive the singularity or not, for you to be
> willing to loan me a dollar today if you were a logical you would demand
> that I give you many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it
> another way, in a few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff
> than it can today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out
> unless you were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically
> high interest-rate.
>
> If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
> being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
> corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low interest
> investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that leads to
> another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if I decide to
> save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to safely do that?
> I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have no reason to believe
> that in a post singularity world that particular metal will be
> significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more common than gold
> but iron is also much more useful than gold.
>
> John K Clark See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 
> 6bx
>
> --
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> 
> .
>

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Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Jason Resch

On Sun, Jun 4, 2023, 12:48 AM Brent Meeker  wrote:

> "Buy land.  They aren't making any more of it."
> --- Mark Twain
>

But perhaps the utility and scarcity of land will diminish after the
development of superhuman AI or the singularity, for any of the following
reasons:

- The potential to create more space, land, and places in virtual reality

- The diminishment of importance of location given telepresence
technologies and online transactions

- The replacement of agriculture with food synthesis, lab grown meat,
underground hydroponics, etc., or the elimination of the necessity of food
for robotic or virtual bodies which may replace our existing ones.

- The replacement of solar energy as a significant or the cheapest source
of energy as new reactor designs are created.

Jason


>
> On 6/3/2023 8:52 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
> I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those who
> know more about economics than I do think about it.
>
> When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs that
> an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even matter if
> that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally accepted that the
>  AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase in productivity is
> imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in interest rates, because
> a dollar in your pocket right now will be more important to you than a
> million dollars will be in 20 years, even if you manage to survive the
> singularity which you very will might not. And if you don't survive then
> the value of a dollar to you will be precisely zero, so you might as well
> spend it today and have a little fun and not loan it out. So regardless of
> if you believe you will survive the singularity or not, for you to be
> willing to loan me a dollar today if you were a logical you would demand
> that I give you many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it
> another way, in a few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff
> than it can today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out
> unless you were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically
> high interest-rate.
>
> If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
> being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
> corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low interest
> investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that leads to
> another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if I decide to
> save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to safely do that?
> I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have no reason to believe
> that in a post singularity world that particular metal will be
> significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more common than gold
> but iron is also much more useful than gold.
>
> John K Clark See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> 
> 6bx
> --
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> 
> .
>
>
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> .
>

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Re: AI and Interest rates

2023-06-03 Thread Brent Meeker

"Buy land. They aren't making any more of it."
--- Mark Twain

On 6/3/2023 8:52 AM, John Clark wrote:
I have a theory about interest rates and I'd like to know what those
who know more about economics than I do think about it.

When it comes to economic forecasting the generally accepted beliefs
that an economy's population has is all important, and it doesn't even
matter if that belief is true. So on the day it becomes generally
accepted that the AI singularity is near and a very drastic increase
in productivity is imminent I believe there will be a BIG increase in
interest rates, because a dollar in your pocket right now will be more
important to you than a million dollars will be in 20 years, even if
you manage to survive the singularity which you very will might not.
And if you don't survive then the value of a dollar to you will be
precisely zero, so you might as well spend it today and have a little
fun and not loan it out. So regardless of if you believe you will
survive the singularity or not, for you to be willing to loan me a
dollar today if you were a logical you would demand that I give you
many many more dollars tomorrow as repayment. Put it another way, in a
few years a dollar will enable you to buy far more stuff than it can
today, so you'd want to save your money and not lend it out unless you
were given a very big reason to do so, such as an astronomically high
interest-rate.

If I'm right about this then that would mean those who think they are
being conservative and safe by investing in low interest government or
corporate bonds will be disappointed because the value of all low
interest investments that are supposed to be safe will crash. But that
leads to another question that I don't have a clear answer to, even if
I decide to save my money and not loan it out, how am I supposed to
safely do that? I'm sure some will immediately say "gold" but I have
no reason to believe that in a post singularity world that particular
metal will be significantly more valuable than iron. Iron is much more
common than gold but iron is also much more useful than gold.

John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis

6bx
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.

obsession with bstters [was Re: ai meets human resources?]

2023-02-11 Thread Tomasz Rola

On Sat, Feb 04, 2023 at 02:38:49AM +, spudboy...@aol.com wrote:
> Article-should i use gpt3_chatbot to write coverletters?
> 
> Job hunt: should you use ChatGPT to write cover letters? 
> (welcometothejungle.com)
> "Why does C get all the girls, and Java gets none?–  Because C doesn’t 
> treat them as objects."

According to the article [1], yes you should write your cover via Chad
Gepetto interface.

Said article also makes an interesting point - Chad can sound
confident while talking about anything, but it does not mean Chad can
know truth from false.

  "What do you call a system that sounds confident about what it says
  regardless of whether what it’s saying is true? I’ll give you a
  hint."

I have concluded that this list displays interesting fascination with
such "systems". Chad or another guy, they are hot topics here, which
is interesting because otherwise they are so different and unlike from
each other.

[1] Why large language models (like ChatGPT) are bullshit artists

https becominghuman 
ai/why-large-language-models-like-chatgpt-are-bullshit-artists-c4d5bb850852?gi=ea927fd0ecec

-- 
Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.  **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home**
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...  **
** **
** Tomasz Rola  mailto:tomasz_r...@bigfoot.com **

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Re: ai meets human resources?

2023-02-03 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List

Article-should i use gpt3_chatbot to write coverletters?

Job hunt: should you use ChatGPT to write cover letters? 
(welcometothejungle.com)
"Why does C get all the girls, and Java gets none?–  Because C doesn’t 
treat them as objects."

-Original Message-
From: Tomasz Rola 
To: everything l 
Sent: Wed, Feb 1, 2023 7:06 pm
Subject: ai meets human resources?

Interesting article in wired, about layouts in tech.

So, these seem to be discerning signs of ai involvement:

1. decisions come out of the blue, in a seemingly random pattern,
hard/impossible to track back to the motives

2. humans who are supposed to know why they made the decission avoid
giving answer, either by trying not to be asked, or, when that
happened, simply do not answer

[

https www wired com /story/google-meta-big-tech-is-bad-at-firing/

]

-- 
Regards,
Tomasz Rola

--
** A C programmer asked whether computer had Buddha's nature.      **
** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home    **
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...      **
**                                                                **
** Tomasz Rola          mailto:tomasz_r...@bigfoot.com            **

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Re: ai meets human resources?

2023-02-01 Thread Tomasz Rola

On Thu, Feb 02, 2023 at 01:06:49AM +0100, Tomasz Rola wrote:
> Interesting article in wired, about layouts in tech.
> 
> So, these seem to be discerning signs of ai involvement:
> 
[...]

All right, it was a provocation by me. The said article does not
contain a single word about ai, as far as I remember. But while I was
reading it, I could easily imagine the very same article, word for
word, with last paragraph describing how ai had been used behind the
courtain.

Apologies to those who have not found my little ruse entertaining :-)

-- 
Regards,
Tomasz Rola

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** As the answer, master did "rm -rif" on the programmer's home**
** directory. And then the C programmer became enlightened...  **
** **
** Tomasz Rola  mailto:tomasz_r...@bigfoot.com **

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Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-21 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List

according to many nerds, humans won't be at the forefront of anything, due to 
AI, and machine learning. being "leader of the free world," and other such 
statements, are merely, sales pitches from lawyers who get elected into office, 
and so called journalists. Stumbling after people in the EU like Juncker, for 
example is not in our interest. Plus, to be honest, I wouldn't trade Cincinnati 
for Malmo, Fika notwithstanding. Call it cultural programming. 

-Original Message-
From: Telmo Menezes <te...@telmomenezes.com>
To: everything-list <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Wed, Jun 21, 2017 6:03 am
Subject: Re: AI and social destabilization

I completely agree with you for a change.

The job-centered society is already looking silly, and will soon look
like medieval superstition. I am waiting for a wave of politicians
that talk about "destroying jobs" instead of "creating jobs", but I
won't hold my breath. I think that the current state of affairs rests
on two things, that are very hard to break:

- A global financial system that only knows how to redistribute wealth
through employment -- but is becoming worse and worse even at doing
that;
- A set of social norms that makes self-worth dependent on employment.

There are no jobs for everyone anymore, not by a long shot. This is
already happening, and the jobs are nor coming back. We have now
entered a silly situation where bullshit jobs are created to prevent
social collapse. This is not only silly but also tragic. We create
prisons for each other for no good reason at all. This is extra silly
in corporate environments, where people are pressured to "work" more
and more hours. It's all mindless virtue signalling.

Of course (for now), someone has to do the unpleasant work that keeps
civilisation running. I don't think that UBI is the only solution. For
example, why can't we work for one decade and live off that money for
the rest of our life spans? The only reason I can see is that the game
is rigged against this being possible. It is most definitely possible
at the higher leves of income, so why not for the common person? Money
is an abstraction, and this abstraction can be redefined -- as it was
already in the past.

If you guys in the US don't manage to get rid of idiots like Trump, I
don't think it is possible that you will be on the forefront of
western civilisation for the next round.

Telmo.

On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 10:10 PM, John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Jobs are already being lost because of the improvements in AI and it's not
> just unskilled workers that are in trouble. Don't think that because you're
> so smart a AI could never do your job better than you can so the AI
> revolution can't effect you personally
> ;
> in March of this year Blackrock, the world's biggest money manager with
> stock funds worth over $275 billion, announced they would fire over 40
> employees including some portfolio managers with astronomical paychecks. The
> reason is they decided to let computers running AI software pick stocks and
> manage 11% of their funds instead of humans.  89% of Blackston's fund
> managers still have a job, but if I was one of them I might decide I don't
> need to buy a new Rolls Royce every month and it would be wise for me to
> start saving my money for a rainy day. Improving technology has created a
> huge gap between the rich and the poor and the gap isn't just increasing
> it's accelerating.
>
> In 2010 the richest 388 people had as much wealth as half of the entire
> human race, that's 3.6 Billion people. In 2014 the richest 85 people did. In
> 2015 the richest 62 people did. This year the richest 8 people did. Think of
> it, the 8 richest Human beings have as much wealth as the poorest 3.6
> BILLION Human beings! History has pretty decisively shown that huge
> inequality just ain't healthy for any society, although history has no
> examples of inequality of
> the
>  magnitude
> we have now.
>
> The improvements in AI that are certain to come
>
> in the next few years
>
> will only accelerate the acceleration of this socially destabilizing trend
> unless something pushes back, something like government action. Health
> insurance for all might be a good place to start. However Donald Trump wants
> to push for lowering taxes on the rich, getting rid of the inheritance tax,
> and eliminating health care for
>
> the
>
> 24 million
>
> poorest people in the country;
>
>  but that's pushing in the wrong direction and will only accelerate the
> acceleration of
> the acceleration
> of the wealth gap.
>
> Anybody who is not terrified by this doesn't understand the situation.
>
> One way or another this trend will NOT continue, if government action
> doesn't slow down the widening of the gap somethi

Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-21 Thread Telmo Menezes

I completely agree with you for a change.

The job-centered society is already looking silly, and will soon look
like medieval superstition. I am waiting for a wave of politicians
that talk about "destroying jobs" instead of "creating jobs", but I
won't hold my breath. I think that the current state of affairs rests
on two things, that are very hard to break:

- A global financial system that only knows how to redistribute wealth
through employment -- but is becoming worse and worse even at doing
that;
- A set of social norms that makes self-worth dependent on employment.

There are no jobs for everyone anymore, not by a long shot. This is
already happening, and the jobs are nor coming back. We have now
entered a silly situation where bullshit jobs are created to prevent
social collapse. This is not only silly but also tragic. We create
prisons for each other for no good reason at all. This is extra silly
in corporate environments, where people are pressured to "work" more
and more hours. It's all mindless virtue signalling.

Of course (for now), someone has to do the unpleasant work that keeps
civilisation running. I don't think that UBI is the only solution. For
example, why can't we work for one decade and live off that money for
the rest of our life spans? The only reason I can see is that the game
is rigged against this being possible. It is most definitely possible
at the higher leves of income, so why not for the common person? Money
is an abstraction, and this abstraction can be redefined -- as it was
already in the past.

If you guys in the US don't manage to get rid of idiots like Trump, I
don't think it is possible that you will be on the forefront of
western civilisation for the next round.

Telmo.

On Tue, Jun 20, 2017 at 10:10 PM, John Clark  wrote:
> Jobs are already being lost because of the improvements in AI and it's not
> just unskilled workers that are in trouble. Don't think that because you're
> so smart a AI could never do your job better than you can so the AI
> revolution can't effect you personally
> ;
> in March of this year Blackrock, the world's biggest money manager with
> stock funds worth over $275 billion, announced they would fire over 40
> employees including some portfolio managers with astronomical paychecks. The
> reason is they decided to let computers running AI software pick stocks and
> manage 11% of their funds instead of humans.  89% of Blackston's fund
> managers still have a job, but if I was one of them I might decide I don't
> need to buy a new Rolls Royce every month and it would be wise for me to
> start saving my money for a rainy day. Improving technology has created a
> huge gap between the rich and the poor and the gap isn't just increasing
> it's accelerating.
>
> In 2010 the richest 388 people had as much wealth as half of the entire
> human race, that's 3.6 Billion people. In 2014 the richest 85 people did. In
> 2015 the richest 62 people did. This year the richest 8 people did. Think of
> it, the 8 richest Human beings have as much wealth as the poorest 3.6
> BILLION Human beings! History has pretty decisively shown that huge
> inequality just ain't healthy for any society, although history has no
> examples of inequality of
> the
>  magnitude
> we have now.
>
> The improvements in AI that are certain to come
>
> in the next few years
>
> will only accelerate the acceleration of this socially destabilizing trend
> unless something pushes back, something like government action. Health
> insurance for all might be a good place to start. However Donald Trump wants
> to push for lowering taxes on the rich, getting rid of the inheritance tax,
> and eliminating health care for
>
> the
>
> 24 million
>
> poorest people in the country;
>
>  but that's pushing in the wrong direction and will only accelerate the
> acceleration of
> the acceleration
> of the wealth gap.
>
> Anybody who is not terrified by this doesn't understand the situation.
>
> One way or another this trend will NOT continue, if government action
> doesn't slow down the widening of the gap something far far more unpleasant
> will.
> If
> I were one of those 8 hyper rich people I'd be calling for change louder
> than anyone because I like the fact that there is a connection between my
> head and my shoulders and would prefer to keep it that way.
> Let me be clear,
> I'm not talking about "should", I'm not talking about morality, I'm just
> saying
> that
> when the gap between the rich and the poor gets
> too
> large social instability occurs
> and that can be very unhealthy for those at the very top.
>
>
>  John K Clark
>
>
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "Everything List" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
> email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
> To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com.
> Visit this group at

Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-20 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List

It depends on how fast automation of jobs occurs?  We obvious can make superb 
robots for any sort of physical labor, as exemplified by the Boston Dynamics 
robot fleet. What is missing-as with all electric cars- is a reliable power 
storage format. There seems to be tons or great engineering being reported that 
could power cars and robots for hours and hours, plus, now, fast wireless 
charging, but unless Musk produces it, physical laborers must wait a while. 
Rostrum's Universal Robots (Czech for workers) as envisioned almost a century 
ago. Automation of office jobs, from engineers to clerks may occur much faster. 
The Young do believe that the state will care for their needs, because it 
sounds like an easy answer and we all like easy answers. What happens of course 
is beyond my control. I don't fear the robots for some reason and looking 
forward to walking androids, simply because I like walking androids. 

-Original Message-
From: John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com>
To: everything-list <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jun 20, 2017 7:52 pm
Subject: Re: AI and social destabilization

On Tue, Jun 20, 2017  spudboy100 via Everything List 
<everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> The millennials, whom I interact with, Professor, believe that there will be 
> a Universal Basic Income (UBI) to rescue them, if they are "dis-employed," by 
> automation. I, of course, oppose,

Mr. Spudboy, this isn't something that is just going to effect those "other 
people". I humbly suggest you stop worrying about millennials liberals and 
conservatives and start to consider how you personally intent to make a living 
when robots in your own profession of potato farming can do your job better 
than you can.  

 John K Clark  

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Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-20 Thread John Clark

On Tue, Jun 20, 2017  spudboy100 via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

> The millennials, whom I interact with, Professor, believe that there will
> be a Universal Basic Income (UBI) to rescue them, if they are
> "dis-employed," by automation. I, of course, oppose,

Mr. Spudboy, this isn't something that is just going to effect those
"other people". I humbly suggest you stop worrying about millennials
liberals and conservatives and start to consider how you personally intent
to make a living when robots in your own profession of potato farming can
do your job better than you can.

 John K Clark

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Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-20 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List

Yes, unless the 3rd gen robots also purchase and sell goods and services. 
"Humans not welcome!" Ok, thanks ;-) 



-Original Message-
From: Hans Moravec <hans.p.mora...@gmail.com>
To: spudboy100 via Everything List <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jun 20, 2017 7:20 pm
Subject: Re: AI and social destabilization





On 170620, at 6:55 PM, spudboy100 via Everything List 
<everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:


Will UBI triumph



Can’t sell if no one is able to buy



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Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-20 Thread Hans Moravec


> On 170620, at 6:55 PM, spudboy100 via Everything List 
>  wrote:
> 
> Will UBI triumph

Can’t sell if no one is able to buy

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Re: AI and social destabilization

2017-06-20 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List

The millennials, whom I interact with, Professor, believe that there will be a 
Universal Basic Income (UBI) to rescue them, if they are "dis-employed," by 
automation. I, of course, oppose, because I am cynical enough to be aware of 
how billionaires decide things, away from journalists and closer to lobbyists. 
I "oppose" meaning, that I believe the 'dis-employed,' will get zero, from the 
loving governments of the world. What is your opinion on this? Will UBI 
triumph, despite my negativity, or am I on to something? 



-Original Message-
From: Hans Moravec <hans.p.mora...@gmail.com>
To: 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Tue, Jun 20, 2017 6:05 pm
Subject: Re: AI and social destabilization





On 170620, at 5:57 PM, Brent Meeker <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:


And don't get too comfortable because you're not one of those billionaires.  
I'd guess that everyone on this list is in the top 0.002% of the world wealth 
distribution.

Brent








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