On Sat, Apr 20, 2013 at 1:35 PM, Mike Archbold <[email protected]> wrote:
> I think Ray Kurzweil is up to something AGI-ish at google, or so I > gather from skimming the news. Maybe this was mentioned in the other > thread which I haven't read yet. It sounded like one of a number of > "10 years and it will work" projects that have surfaced in the news > lately. Mike A > I am not a Google insider but from what I have seen from outside and reading between the lines they are working hard on: 1) SIRI killer - full speech understanding by computational systems or as close as they can get 2) much better NLP 3) using their Big Data skills and huge corpus to statistically brute force a lot of information extraction and narrow AI type results 4) using (2) and (3) to build then next gen super Watson type functionality and incorporating that into current and future projects. Offhand I don't see that any of that gives actual AGI although it will arguably make all of us effectively smarter if done well. I agree very much with Ben. Large company skunkworks on more or less blue sky projects are notoriously fickle and prone to having their bubble burst on the rocks of corporate politics. Alternately if you can get a gig where basically they just pay you and a team without much hassle for a few years then the research is so locked down secret to the world and even to 99% of the company that that generates its own difficulties. - s > > On 4/20/13, Logan Streondj <[email protected]> wrote: > > It's true, Ben is really like an angel investor, > > since he has a high profile AGI project, > > and invests some time in interacting, > > with our low-profile AGI projects, > > or even AGI ideas for some. > > > > > > On Fri, Apr 19, 2013 at 9:35 PM, Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: > > > >> > >> Andrew... > >> > >> [changed the thread name] > >> > >> On Fri, Apr 19, 2013 at 10:37 PM, Andrew G. Babian > >> <[email protected]>wrote: > >> > >>> > >>> So to throw something somewhat more positive out there, I just looked > >>> at > >>> the website of the people working at Google Research. They've got > >>> literally tons of people in areas like machine perception, AI, machine > >>> learning, machine translation. It does give me the feeling that there > >>> are > >>> people, and with enough plugging, they will eventually get AGI as just > a > >>> natural progression. Of, course, I think they field and the stuff they > >>> use > >>> has some missing bits, but that's just me. You all can tilt at all the > >>> windmills y'all want, but they have money and talent at a level we > can't > >>> approach. > >>> > >> > >> I have visited Google Research in Mountain View a number of times, and I > >> know a bunch of researchers there fairly well... > >> > >> Of course their staff are intelligent and talented and so forth.... And > >> they are well paid and have a lot of data and computing resources. > >> > >> I don't think their staff are supernaturally talented or anything like > >> that.... Some of the folks I am working with on AI, in Hong Kong and > >> Addis > >> Ababa, are every bit as talented and clever as the Google Research > >> staff.... Silicon Valley does not have a monopoly on brilliant tech > >> talent, though they may well have the world's best publicists ;-) ... > >> > >> In the end, only a very miniscule portion of the resources of Google -- > >> or > >> any other current large tech company -- is oriented toward AGI in any > >> direct or semi-direct way. When AGI is pursued within these firms, it's > >> currently in teeny-tiny skunkworks projects.... And these skunkworks > >> projects tend to get quasi-randomly dissolved when corporate priorities > >> change (e.g. Sam Adam's now-dormant Joshua Blue AGI project at IBM; some > >> previous Google AGI skunkworks projects I know about via personal > >> commmunications...) > >> > >> So, consider the two possibilities: > >> > >> A) > >> A large company with a teeny skunkworks AGI team, plus a lot of smart > >> guys > >> working on other projects peripherally related to AGI > >> > >> B) > >> A small team working outside any large company or institution, with > >> uncertain but non-zero funding, but focused directly on AGI > >> > >> ... Is it really so obvious that A is going to get to the end goal > before > >> B? I don't think so.... Based on general common sense, it seems either > >> one is possible.... > >> > >> There is, of course, a scientific question here: Whether AGI can be > >> achieved by basically integrating a bunch of components created for > >> non-AGI > >> purposes, with some sort of relatively simple "AGI controller" layered > on > >> top of it.... I personally don't think this can work. I think that > >> even > >> if the **ideas** underlying a bunch of narrow-AI components are > >> sufficient > >> to guide the creation of modules of an AGI system, in actual practice, > >> the > >> way narrow-AI systems are written generally precludes their integration > >> into an AGI framework.... Integrating components into an AGI framework > >> generally requires allowing each component to infuse knowledge and > >> guidance > >> into the others at a deep level, and generally narrow-AI software is not > >> designed or coded to allow this; and redesigning a piece of narrow-AI > >> software in such a way requires a lot of deep thinking as well as hard > >> engineering.... I have been involved with this sort of work a lot... > >> > >> Finally, and hopefully without being insulting to anyone, I would like > to > >> point out that the folks who post on this list are not remotely > >> representative of the community of "AGI researchers unaffiliated with > >> large > >> corporations." .... The folks who choose to spend a lot of time reading > >> and writing on AGI e-mail lists form a quite particular sub-population. > >> On > >> average, they tend to have fewer professional qualifications and less > >> funding for their work, than plenty of other AGI researchers out > there... > >> > >> For instance, I think Kris Thorisson at Reykjavik University is making a > >> real stab at AGI, as are the guys at Deep Mind in the UK (Demis > Hassabis, > >> Shane Legg etc., with funding from Founders Fund).... Dileep George is > >> making his own effort, and will be keynoting at AGI-13 in Beijing.... > >> So > >> is Itamar Arel at U. Tennessee Knoxville (currently working on adding > >> action & reinforcement to his deep learning perception system). There > >> are > >> plenty of others. These guys (like me) are not working for Google or > M$ > >> or IBM for a reason.... We have probably all been recruited by these > >> firms > >> repeatedly (I know I have), but prefer to pursue our own visions rather > >> than being directed by corporate bosses, even though this means we will > >> have a lot less funding and a lot more hassles.... Note that none of > >> these other guys are on this email list... > >> > >> I myself find I have little time to pay attention to this list lately, > >> because I'm spending half my time working on AGI, and half my time > >> working > >> on income-generating (and hopefully eventually wealth-generating) > >> narrow-AI > >> stuff (principally the application of machine learning and NLP to > >> financial > >> prediction). > >> > >> I think this list serves a useful purpose, in that someone who is > utterly > >> new to the AGI field can sign up and quickly find others with a common > >> interest.... But please don't assume that it reflects the state of the > >> art > >> in non-big-corporate AGI projects !! > >> > >> -- > >> Ben Goertzel > >> (list founder, and former list administrator...) > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/5037279-a88c7a6d> | > >> Modify<https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;>Your Subscription > >> <http://www.listbox.com> > >> > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > > AGI > > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > > RSS Feed: > https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/11943661-d9279dae > > Modify Your Subscription: > > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > > > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/2997756-fc0b9b09 > Modify Your Subscription: > https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com > ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
