----- Original Message ----- From: "Jeffrey Miller" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Brin-L" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Monday, December 03, 2001 2:31 PM Subject: Re: Secret Military Tribunals
> ..so because a government like Pakistan that was threatened by our > President agrees with us, we should go bomb Afghanistan? You know, a > whole bunch of people used to agree that the earth was flat, but that > didn't make it true. > Oh my, that old chestnut of a saying "falsifying" a consensus understanding. Well, let me respond to that individually. First a question: How long ago was a flat earth a consensus view among sailors, or others who would have cause to think about whether the world was flat or or round? Next is the Sid Ceaser response "they said Newton was crazy they said that Einstein was crazy they said that Ernie Schwarts was crazy" "who's Ernie Schwarts?" "oh, he's a guy down the street that thinks he's Napoleon...now he's really crazy. Just because the consensus view has been wrong and a an individual view proven right in the past doesn't mean that the outlying individual view is more correct or even as correct as the consenses view. We tend to cherish the mavrick that is proven right, we ignore the thousands of times the consensus view is right, and one individual is wrong. Finally, let me relate from personal experience. My job, for the most part, has been innovation. Yet, I remember an adage from a much older scientist who said "whenever you come up with a great new idea that runs against the grain, you need to ask, "those guys are plenty smart, why do I know more than them." Now, there are times you can answer that question positively. There were a number of times in my career where I could say why I was in a better position to provide the best answer than some very bright guys who went before me. Changing technology, the right mix of experience, and different enviornments all contributed to this. So, let me ask you, why do you think you can dismiss the consensus understanding? (IMHO you did more than argue against it, you dismissed it.) In the next post, I'll discuss how broad the consensus is and some of the reasons for it. Dan M.
