--- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Well, complacency is never good, but the challenge > to the US will not be > from Europe in 30 years. How will an old society > that is shrinking be able > to challenge for supremacy? Europe is in the > process of fading away. The > only way I can see this being stopped is: > > 1) Women start having kids out of as sense of > loyalty to Europe. > > 2) Europe decides it wants to be multi-ethnic. > > I don't think either will happen.
It doesn't matter even if they would. Well, the first might well help, but by the time the bulge in new workers hit the economy it might well be too late. There is, at any rate, considerable evidence that birth rates are extremely resistant to government efforts to push them upwards. The second, rather to my shock, also will not help. That's one of the big things I learned from the last couple of weeks. The number of immigrants Europe would have to accept to keep its age profile stable is so high that by 2050 a large majority of its population would be immigrant. I don't even think the US could, would, or should accept that level of immigration. I _certainly_ don't think that Europe is capable of it. For that matter, it's possible that there _won't be_ that many people out there willing to immigrate. The tax burdens necessary to pan Europe's pension costs will certainly decrease the number of people willing to immigrate, and birth rates are dropping in most of the Third World as well. China's population, amazingly enough, is aging almost as fast as Europe's. By 2050 the US and India will have approximately the same median age (the late 30s, I believe) while China will be (I think) in the late 40s - early 50s (the data on China isn't as good) and Europe will be in the late 50s. In Italy the ratio of people working to people retired will be below 1. Herbert Stein famously said that an unsustainable trend will not be sustained. I don't quite see how this particular trend is going to end, though. ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
