--- "John D. Giorgis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> 
> So, you are arguing that "the greatest pitcher of
> all-time" *must* have had longevity?   I am
> surprised that you claim so confidently that it is
> "foolish" to disagree with this principle.   
> 
> In my mind, if one considers injuries to essentially
> be a random and rare function, I think that it would
> be very sensible to make discounts for careers
> cut-short by injury - even if one still wanted to
> devalue a pitcher (or player) whose career seemed to
> end early because of prematurely declining skills.
> 
> JDG

Of course I am arguing that the greatest pitcher of
all time has to have longevity.  You're a football
fan.  If a running back ran for 2500 yards his rookie
season and never played another game, would you say he
was the greatest running back of all time, or one who
had a really great season?  He might have had the
_talent_ to have become the greatest running back of
all time, but he didn't actually do it, did he?  Who
would you rather have on your team for his entire
career, that hypothetical back or Walter Payton?

Plus, declining skills are often a product of injury
as much as they are of age.  Tommy John went from a
hard tosser to a soft one after he had his eponymous
surgery, probably hurting his value as a pitcher and
quite possibly keeping him out of the Hall of Fame. 
By your standard if he had stopped playing after he
was injured we should consider him to be a better
pitcher than because he was able to figure out a way
to keep contributing to his teams.  That doesn't make
sense to me.

Furthermore, injuries aren't a random or infrequent
factor for pitchers.  They are a non-random, frequent
factor.  Power pitchers are less likely to get injured
that soft-tossers (Koufax, of course, was the
quintessential power pitcher).  Furthermore, pitchers
get injured all the time (unless they play for the
Oakland A's right now).  The odds of a pitcher having
a major injury in a season are (IIRC) over 10%.  Being
able to avoid getting injured is a talent just as
surely as striking someone out - because if you're on
the bench, you can't contribute to your team.  Surely
one part of Greg Maddux's remarkable ability is the
fact that he is never, ever injured.  That's not
random - it's because he has flawless mechanics and is
the most efficient pitcher in the history of the
modern game.

=====
Gautam Mukunda
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Freedom is not free"
http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com

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