AlphaFold2 and its performance are indeed a true breakthrough of potentially seismic proportion - and will accelerate much of what we are trying to achieve.

But I feel it is also important to point out that the method principally relies on experimental data: lots of protein sequences that through evolution have evolved to generate very similar folds and structures. Machine learning is used to transform the resulting (experiment-derived) co-evolution matrices (can be thought of as images for ML training) into distances between atoms. The distances are then used to generate models (minimiser in Alpha Fold 1, something ML in 2, as far as I could figure out). Note that contacts between proteins can also generate evolutionary couplings (as already used by the pioneers of the field, such as Debora Marks and Chris Sander), so something like AlphaFold will be able to make inroads there as well and that application might well have a greater impact.

This leaves three important goals remaining if I may add: 1) a way to do this for any single sequence, without alignment, or indeed any folding polymer (for when we will be able to make coded polymers that are not made from amino acids). 2) a method to obtain accurate numbers, such as binding energies and rates. 3) the inverse: predicting sequences that have a particular function/fold.

I would like to suggest that all three will require looking at how we can use more of the physics of the problem, but might well involve more machine learning.

Jan

On 04/12/2020 00:49, Paul Adams wrote:

I agree completely Tom. Having been recently involved in some efforts to identify interesting compounds against SARS-CoV-2, I can say that the current AI/ML methods for docking/predicting small molecule binding have very very low success rates (I’m being generous here), even when you are working with the experimental protein structure! Maybe this is the next frontier for the prediction methods (after they’ve solved the protein/protein complex problem of course), but it seems there is a long way to go.

Given that many structures are solved to look at their interaction with other proteins or small molecules I think that experimental structural biology is here to stay for a while - past Tom’s retirement even! However, will these fairly accurate protein predictions make experimental phasing a thing of the past?


On Dec 3, 2020, at 4:16 PM, Peat, Tom (Manufacturing, Parkville) <tom.p...@csiro.au <mailto:tom.p...@csiro.au>> wrote:

Although they can now get the fold correct, I don't think they have all the side chain placement so perfect as to be able to predict the fold_and_how a compound or another protein binds, so we can still do complexes. I don't know what others end up spending their time doing, but much of my work has been trying to fit ligands into density, which may take another few years of algorithm development, which is fine for me as I can retire!
cheers, tom

Tom Peat, PhD
Proteins Group
Biomedical Program, CSIRO
343 Royal Parade
Parkville, VIC, 3052
+613 9662 7304
+614 57 539 419
tom.p...@csiro.au <mailto:tom.p...@csiro.au>

------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From:*CCP4 bulletin board <CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK <mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK>> on behalf of Jon Cooper <0000488a26d62010-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk <mailto:0000488a26d62010-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk>>
*Sent:*Friday, December 4, 2020 9:55 AM
*To:*CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK <mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK><CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK <mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK>>
*Subject:*Re: [ccp4bb] AlphaFold: more thinking and less pipetting (?)
Thanks all, very interesting, so our methods are just needed to identify the crystallization impurities, when the trays have been thrown away ;-

Cheers, Jon.C.

Sent from ProtonMail mobile



-------- Original Message --------
On 3 Dec 2020, 22:31, Anastassis Perrakis <a.perra...@nki.nl <mailto:a.perra...@nki.nl>> wrote:


    AlphaFold - or similar ideas that will surface up sooner or later
    - will beyond doubt have major impact. The accuracy it
    demonstrated compared to others is excellent.

    “Our” target (T1068) that was not solvable by MR with the
    homologous search structure or a homology model (it was phased
    with Archimboldo, rather easily), is easily solvable with
    the AlphaFold model as a search model. In PHASER I get Rotation
    Z-score 17.9, translation Z-score 26.0, using defaults.


    imho what remains to be seen is:

    a. how and when will a prediction server be available?
    b. even if training needs computing that will surely unaccessible
    to most, will there be code that can be installed in a
    “reasonable” number of GPUs and how fast will it be?
    c. how do model quality metrics (that do not compared with the
    known answer) correlate with the expected RMSD? AlphaFold, no
    matter how impressive, still gets things wrong.
    c. will the AI efforts now gear to ligand (fragment?) prediction
    with similarly impressive performance?

    Exciting times.

    A.




    On 3 Dec 2020, at 21:55, Jon Cooper
    <0000488a26d62010-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk
    <mailto:0000488a26d62010-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk>> wrote:

    Hello. A quick look suggests that a lot of the test structures
    were solved by phaser or molrep, suggesting it is a very welcome
    improvement on homology modelling. It would be interesting to
    know how it performs with structures of new or uncertain fold,
    if there are any left these days. Without resorting to jokes
    about artificial intelligence, I couldn't make that out from the
    CASP14 website or the many excellent articles that have
    appeared. Best wishes, Jon Cooper.


    Sent from ProtonMail mobile



    -------- Original Message --------
    On 3 Dec 2020, 11:17, Isabel Garcia-Saez <isabel.gar...@ibs.fr
    <mailto:isabel.gar...@ibs.fr>> wrote:


        Dear all,

        Just commenting that after the stunning performance of
        AlphaFold that uses AI from Google maybe some of us we could
        dedicate ourselves to the noble art of gardening, baking,
        doing Chinese Calligraphy, enjoying the clouds pass or
        everything together (just in case I have already prepared my
        subscription to Netflix).

        https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4
        <https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4>

        Well, I suppose that we still have the structures of
        complexes (at the moment). I am wondering how the labs will
        have access to this technology in the future (would it be
        for free coming from the company DeepMind - Google?). It
        seems that they have already published some code. Well,
        exciting times.

        Cheers,

        Isabel


        Isabel Garcia-SaezPhD
        Institut de Biologie Structurale
        Viral Infection and Cancer Group (VIC)-Cell Division Team
        71, Avenue des Martyrs
        CS 10090
        38044 Grenoble Cedex 9
        France
        Tel.: 00 33 (0) 457 42 86 15
        e-mail: isabel.gar...@ibs.fr <mailto:isabel.gar...@ibs.fr>
        FAX: 00 33 (0) 476 50 18 90
        http://www.ibs.fr/ <http://www.ibs.fr/>


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--
Paul Adams
Division Director, Molecular Biophysics & Integrated Bioimaging, LBL (http://biosciences.lbl.gov/divisions/mbib <http://biosciences.lbl.gov/divisions/mbib>) Principal Investigator, Computational Crystallography Initiative, LBL (http://cci.lbl.gov <http://cci.lbl.gov>) Vice President for Technology, the Joint BioEnergy Institute (http://www.jbei.org <http://www.jbei.org>) Principal Investigator, ALS-ENABLE, Advanced Light Source (http://als-enable.lbl.gov <http://als-enable.lbl.gov>) Division Deputy for Biosciences, Advanced Light Source (https://als.lbl.gov <https://als.lbl.gov>) Laboratory Research Manager, ENIGMA Science Focus Area (http://enigma.lbl.gov <http://enigma.lbl.gov>) Adjunct Professor, Department of Bioengineering, U.C. Berkeley (http://bioeng.berkeley.edu <http://bioeng.berkeley.edu>) Adjunct Professor, Comparative Biochemistry, U.C. Berkeley (http://compbiochem.berkeley.edu <http://compbiochem.berkeley.edu>)

Building 33, Room 250
Building 978, Room 4126
Building 977, Room 180C
Tel: 1-510-486-4225
http://cci.lbl.gov/paul <http://cci.lbl.gov/paul>
ORCID: 0000-0001-9333-8219

Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
1 Cyclotron Road
BLDG 33R0345
Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.

Executive Assistant: Ashley Dawn [ ashleyd...@lbl.gov <mailto:ashleyd...@lbl.gov> ][ 1-510-486-5455 ]
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