> Anyway, these are the reasons i think the trends tell
> me ColdFusion is either a dead duck of soon to be a dead
> duck at least in Sydney anyway.  I dont know about other

When it comes to usergroups and conferences, and even the kinds of companies
that use ColdFusion, it has a lot to do with the culture around it.  PHP,
Perl, Python, Lisp, C, Ruby, ASP.Net, Groovy, and most other languages are
free to use and deploy for whatever you want.  ColdFusion is not (yes, we
have Railo but it hasn't gained a lot of traction yet).  This one fact alone
causes a lot of new developers to choose other technology over ColdFusion.
ColdFusion was originally made for Windows, a commercial product which
requires licenses.  It wasn't born of the open source culture like many
languages were.  Many developers see ColdFusion as a language that is used
within companies who feel like they need to pay for licensing and support.
Those companies aren't sexy and the more "social" developers aren't
generally drawn to them.  ColdFusion is associated with a closed-source
culture and set of ideas.  This is obvious when you look at any large-scale
off-the-shelf CF app (shopping carts, forums, CMS systems and the like).
Other languages are open and you can do whatever you want with them and
there are healthy communities with lots of free and open source applications
you can deploy.  With ColdFusion you have to be concerned about which
license you have, how many you have, and where you deploy it.  Just
yesterday Adobe had an e-seminar about using "ColdFusion in the Cloud" and
they spent the first 20 minutes talking about licensing and what was and
wasn't a cloud and how you should have your legal team get in touch with
Adobe's legal team if you had concerns.  That's not sexy to developers.  It
turns them off and they run over to Ruby where they can just do what they
need to do without worrying about whether they have the right number of CPU
licenses or what their costs are going to look like if they need to scale to
a dozen servers.

If anything is going to kill ColdFusion, THAT, in my opinion is what will do
it in.

I'm not saying it's evil to charge for software or that Adobe is doing
something wrong, far from it, but for a new developer it's like a choice
between an iPhone (and now Android) or a Blackberry.  iPhones are sexy with
lots of free apps.  Blackberry is for corporate snobs who are addicted to
checking their e-mail.  As a developer, you have to decide which culture do
you want to be a part of.  If you want the large usergroups with new
developers fawning over the technology, ColdFusion is probably not right for
you.  If you want stability and a chance to work in larger companies with a
corporate culture, or a government organization with lots of structure and
rules then you'll have better chances.  That is primarily where ColdFusion
lives.

Of course anyone can pull out examples of cool companies that use ColdFusion
(I'd like to think I work for one, but we could use any language and be just
as successful), or of large companies that don't, but the fact remains that
the culture around the ColdFusion platform is inherently different from
platforms born of the open source movement.


-Justin



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