It was a 25% chance per puppy and a 5% chance for the whole litter being affected. When we consider the whole breed and all the litters that are born every year, hearing of 2 or more litters of all affecteds is not out of line with the frequency rates. How many litters were born last year? The website says that there were 3612 cavaliers register in 2001. It doesn't give the number of litters (that's in the Feb 2002 AKC Gazette, but I don't have it). However, if we use the average litter size of 4, that would be 903 litters. Five percent of that is 45 litters.
Of course, not all of those would be carrier x carrier for this defect but the numbers could easily validate several litters of all affected puppies in many different recessive defects. For example, when considering recessives that are prevalent in this breed, someone is going to have a litter of all dysplasic puppies, someone will have a litter of all MVD puppies and someone will have a litter with all patella luxated puppies. We all want that "someone" to be someone else. If you breed dogs long enough, your turn comes around. It isn't fun, but it happens. Myra seems to prefer the environment over the genetics, but there has to be more to this defect than environment alone since it has happened in many different environments and the resurgence of the defect which seems to be correlated to the emphasis on heart or longevity. Frankly, I don't think that it was anything that Myra did or didn't do. It was just her turn. All the best, Susan Cochran ----- Original Message ----- From: "Kathy Yonkers" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, May 10, 2002 6:37 PM Subject: Re: [CKCS-L] Rough coat > Myra... > > I feel this syndrome is genetic in nature with threshold.. having an > autoimmune factor. So in theory, environment could increase its symptoms and > presentation of this syndrome in offspring. Think of this as a nature and > nuture thing... > > As far as chances, you can have a 5% chance for the genetic disorder in each > pup but the whole litter could be affected...you just hit "snake eyes" on > every throw of the dice for each pup...and/or your threshold was very low. > > Take care and good luck with your puppies!!! > Kathy Yonkers > > ---------- > >From: Myra Savant <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > >To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Subject: Re: [CKCS-L] Rough coat > >Date: Fri, May 10, 2002, 6:19 PM > > > > > This is my point exactly. Padgett says that there is only a 5% chance that > > three of four puppies would be affected by the match up of > > recessive/recessive. A 5% chance, Susan. And yet, people have contacted me > > who had five of five affected. What must be the odds on that? Much, much > > less than 5%. It is the statistics that you quote that make me think > > environmental versus genetic when people are having entire litters of rough > > coats. You have made my point better than I did. Myra > > > > > > > > > > _________________________________________________________________ > > MSN Photos is the easiest way to share and print your photos: > > http://photos.msn.com/support/worldwide.aspx > > > > ========================================================= > > "Magic Commands": > > to stop receiving mail for awhile, click here and send the email: > > mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?body=SET%20CKCS-L%20NOMAIL > > to start it up gain click here: > > mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?body=SET%20CKCS-L%20MAIL > > > > E-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] for assistance. > > Search the Archives... http://apple.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ckcs-l.html > > > > All e-mail sent through CKCS-L is Copyright 2002 by its original author. > > ========================================================= > "Magic Commands": > to stop receiving mail for awhile, click here and send the email: > mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?body=SET%20CKCS-L%20NOMAIL > to start it up gain click here: > mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?body=SET%20CKCS-L%20MAIL > > E-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] for assistance. > Search the Archives... http://apple.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ckcs-l.html > > All e-mail sent through CKCS-L is Copyright 2002 by its original author. ========================================================= "Magic Commands": to stop receiving mail for awhile, click here and send the email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?body=SET%20CKCS-L%20NOMAIL to start it up gain click here: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]?body=SET%20CKCS-L%20MAIL E-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] for assistance. Search the Archives... http://apple.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ckcs-l.html All e-mail sent through CKCS-L is Copyright 2002 by its original author.
