Colext/Macondo
Cantina virtual de los COLombianos en el EXTerior
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El articulo de abajo puede ser de inter�s. Dice que las aerol�neas
Latinoamericanas est�n en situaci�n critica por falta de competitividad
contra las aerol�neas gringas que tienen mucho mas capital y liquidad.
Aeroper�, Taesa y Saeta ya murieron y Aerol�neas Argentinas (esta parece que
la va a comprar Iberia), Avensa y Vasp est�n a punto de quiebra, debito al
control gringo del 63% de mercado entre E.U. y Latinoam�rica. Sugiere el
articulo que una posible salvaci�n de las aerol�neas latinoamericanas es la
inversi�n publica, tal como hizo Lanchile. Chuchobel, no me has convencido
que American Airlines generar�a la misma cantidad de empleo en Colombia que
generar�a Avianca. Una empresa gigante como American puede dirigir la mayor
parte de sus operaciones en Colombia desde su sede en Texas, sin tener que
aumentar en forma significativa su presencia en Colombia. Por otro lado,
aparentemente no te importa si un American Airlines no invierte sus
ganancias en Colombia, algo que una empresa Colombiana *si* har�a. El flujo
de capital Colombiano hacia el extranjero (algo necesario para saciar el
interminable apetito para mercados capitales de las multinacionales, en fin
es su "raison d'etre") solo desangra la econom�a Colombiana aumentando el
desempleo y miseria.
Saludos,
Carlos
Capital Flight
January, 2001
Aeroper�, Taesa and Saeta are gone. Aerol�neas Argentinas, Avensa and Vasp
sit on the critical list. In the last two years, Latin American airlines
have been finding themselves permanently grounded, prompting the region's
airline executives to search for strategies for staying in business.
Many aviation executives blame deregulation, now widespread throughout the
region. But a recent study says foreign rivals may be the bigger problem.
The Aviation Management Services study found that U.S. carriers, led by
American Airlines, Continental and Delta, now control 63% of the U.S.-Latin
America market, and their share keeps growing. The pattern for European
airlines serving Latin America is similar.
Unable to hold their own against the foreign competition, Latin American
carriers have relied increasingly on domestic routes, leaving themselves
more vulnerable to currency devaluation and recession. Brazil's Vasp, for
example, is still struggling to recover from the 1999 devaluation of the
real. During Ecuador's financial crisis, which prompted the country to trade
the sucre for the dollar, Saeta went broke.
"Deregulation has coincided with difficult times," says Juan Emilio Posada,
chief executive of Aces, Colombia's largest domestic airline. He says Latin
American airlines can do little about economic downturns-except fly around
them with improved technology and clever management. But other industry
watchers, such as Miami-based aviation consultant Bob Booth, chairman of
AvGroup, say the airline landscape is more complex. "There's never one thing
that kills an airline," he explains. "Bad decisions, the market,
competition-all have a cumulative impact."
Patricio Sep�lveda, Latin American director for the Geneva-based
International Air Transport Association, specifically singles out
privatization. "Seven to eight years ago, most Latin American airlines were
government-owned," he recalls. "Since then, we have had a process of
privatization and, in most countries, there has been no provision for
capitalizing the airlines.
"The government did require investment in the airline as part of the
privatization, but it was just a formality," Sep�lveda adds. "Most of the
plans are there, but just on paper. All the money went to the government.
None went to the airline."
Julius Maldutis, an analyst for the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce,
agrees that the carriers are undercapitalized. "Privatization is not a
success unless an airline is sold to global capital markets, not to six
friends of the transport minister," he says.
Family fiefdoms. Indeed, most of the region's airlines are now closely held
by families or tight groups of local investors. The Cueto family controls
LanChile; the Zavallos family owns Peru's AeroContinente; Brazil's Vasp
belongs to Wagner Canhedo and his sons; and Avianca is in the hands of a
group of Colombian investors led by Julio Mario Santo Domingo.
With a new Boeing 737 carrying a US$125 million price tag, however, even the
wealthiest families cannot bankroll a modern airline. At the very worst, the
carriers end up in what Booth calls "family fiefdoms" where "management is
accountable to the whims and fancies of the owners, but not to the bottom
line."
Posada puts it another way: "In countries without liquid capital markets,
airlines are often run by people with big egos."
Legal limits on foreign ownership complicate the carriers' search for
capital. When local money is scarce, airline growth is suppressed. In
desperation, a few countries have turned a blind eye to their own laws:
AeroPer�, for instance, had only 30% local ownership, while Aerol�neas
Argentinas has a meager 15%.
Lacking access to capital, Latin carriers have traditionally borrowed from
banks. LanChile broke the mold when, in 1997, it successfully went to Wall
Street to raise $120 million, becoming the first, and so far only Latin
American airline to list on the New York Stock Exchange. Central America's
Grupo TACA is also reportedly working on its own initial public offering.
How else can Latin American airlines find ample funds without becoming pawns
to family fiefdoms or absentee foreign owners? The key may be in the growing
strength of local stock markets. Booth points to pension funds in Chile,
Peru and some other countries as a source of public money. The fact that
LanChile is headed to the Chilean stock market to raise another $120 million
already signals this change. "Public ownership of Latin airlines," predicts
Booth, "is the wave of the future."
Author: David Knibb * Seattle
http://www.latintrade.com/newsite/content/archives.cfm?TopicID=2&StoryID=116
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