-Caveat Lector-

Euphorian spotted this on the Guardian Unlimited site and thought you should see it.

To see this story with its related links on the Guardian Unlimited site, go to 
http://www.guardian.co.uk

Saddam's concessions will never be enough for the US
Unless it can engineer a war, Bush's administration is political roadkill
Simon Tisdall
Tuesday September 17 2002
The Guardian


To the "man in the street", on whose support Tony Blair and George Bush ultimately 
depend, it looks like a fair enough offer. For months the US has been huffing and 
puffing, mouthing and mithering, making waves over Iraq, demanding that it do what 
Washington wants. Now, finally, it has received a simple answer: yes. So what does the 
US do? Ask for more.

It is worth recalling how this pseudo-epiphany was reached. The build-up began in 
earnest with Bush's "axis of evil" speech in January; then came his doctrine of 
"pre-emptive attack" (what security adviser Condoleezza Rice sweetly calls 
"anticipatory defence"). Then a startled world learned that "rogue states" holding 
weapons of mass destruction were more or less on the team with Osama and al-Qaida. 
That, it transpired, made them legitimate targets for America's "war on terror" and 
"regime change".

Last week, Bush turned his screw yet more fiercely. If Iraq truly wished peace, he 
hectored, it must not only agree to full, certified disarmament under UN auspices (and 
on US terms). It must also swiftly honour all the numerous obligations laid upon it 
after the Gulf war.

But Iraq's weapons remained the principal focus. Some chemical and biological 
capability is still most likely at Saddam Hussein's disposal, according to the final 
reports of the UN inspectors in 1998. He may since have developed more. Scarier still, 
hawks squawk, Iraq may be only three years, or three months, or who knows, three weeks 
away from acquiring a nuclear weapon. An image was conjured of the Baghdad bazaar. 
"Pop round next Tuesday Mr Saddam. Your package will be waiting."

Such angst with all this blethering did Bush and his cohorts inspire. Such 
discomfiture and war-feverish unease did they spread among European allies such as 
Blair and his party followers. What strains and stresses stole like shadows of the 
night over the deserts of the Middle East as Arab allies and foes alike contemplated a 
coming US onslaught. How greatly did they clamour and cringe, to the delight of the 
Cheneys and Rumsfelds, Wolfowitzs and Perles. One by one, slinking Saudis followed 
chapeau-chomping French into the American sheepfold.

And then, after all this hot and bother fuss, suddenly and out of the blue, even 
before General Tommy Franks, the wannabe "Stormin' Norman", has unpacked his Qatar 
camp bed, Iraq simply says "OK". To all these provocations, Baghdad puts a timely 
stopper.

Nor is there any doubting the popularity of Saddam's shift, enough to make the White 
House sick. Security council members declare themselves encouraged. Russia looks 
forward to a political settlement and an end to threats of war. China discerns a 
positive sign. Backsliding Germany's Joschka Fischer rubs it in with a told-you-so 
about the efficacy of the UN-centred, multilateral approach. Even in London, 
predictions fly suggesting that war, if it comes, has now been put back a year, that 
Bush and Blair are split over how to proceed, and that Downing Street will be blamed 
by US hardliners for steering their president up a diplomatic blind alley. Some Muslim 
countries, meanwhile, demand a lifting of sanctions.

Worse still, the no-strings nature of Iraq's riposte has plain-spoken appeal. And to 
the "man in the street", increasingly bowed, browbeaten and bamboozled by the 
government's line (as polls show) but now relieved and hopeful, it seems reasonable. 
After all, what more do these people want?

Quite a lot, actually, and the Bushmen's demands will increase rather than diminish as 
yesterday's momentary flummoxing fades. The gap between what America might wisely do, 
and what it really does, may yet grow schismatically chasmatic.

The US has a "moral obligation", says sensible Liberal Democrat Menzies Campbell, to 
take the Iraqi offer seriously and explore it fully. Will it do so? The initially 
scornful and dismissive response can be expected to harden in the days ahead into a 
firm line insisting the threat has not diminished one whit, that Iraq will be judged 
by actions, not words, and that merely "tactical" manoeuvres of this sort have been 
seen before.

Far from welcoming Iraq's prima facie compliance with weapons inspections resolutions, 
the coming US emphasis will be on the several other "materially breached" UN decrees. 
And whatever Moscow says, the dogged pursuit of a new resolution authorising a yet 
tougher line will continue apace.

Far from facilitating the inspections process, quickly agreeing a timetable and fixing 
an end point, as Iraq has previously asked, the stress now will be on anywhere, 
anytime coercion, intrusion, paramilitary enforcement, and re-extraction of inspectors 
at the first glimmer of obstruction. The public message will be scepticism, that 
anything worth finding has already been hidden, that "cheat and retreat" is Iraq's 
game, and that the military option may still be the only option.

To this end, despite yesterday's developments, the military build-up will continue, 
the ships and tanks, planes and carriers so vital to America's sense of self-worth 
will edge towards Iraq, the tone-deaf Rumsfeld's Pentagon will bang on at what Syria 
calls the drums of war and deathly ominous B52s, like so many unChristian soldiers 
marching as to war, will once more silence the hedgerows of Gloucestershire. Expect US 
pretexts for escalation, fake and insincere negotiations, and false horizons.

For Saddam, with every concession, the bar will be raised ever higher. Almost whatever 
he says or does, the gun will remain at his head, the trigger ever cocked for the 
commencement of a battle which Bush et al will not be denied. Despite a broad 
international consensus against it, regime change and nothing less will remain the 
ultimate objective.

And why, the "man in the street" might ask, do they appear so set on violence? Because 
Bush's misconceived, over-hyped global "war on terror" has run out of targets and is 
far from won. Because Iraq is oil-rich (the second biggest reserves) and the Saudis 
grow unreliable. Because, purely in domestic policy terms, especially post-Enron, this 
government is political roadkill. Because the administration's predominant, 
evangelical clique believes it is solo superpower America's historic mission (Bush 
says it is a "calling") to spread its universal values and rescue a muddled world from 
itself. Because the Bush family has old scores to settle and new elections to win. 
Because Bush lacks the insight and imagination to act differently. Because in their 
September 11 pain and unforgotten anger, not nearly enough of America's "men in the 
street", and in high places too, are prepared to say stop, pause, and consider what it 
is they do.

[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Copyright Guardian Newspapers Limited

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