% These were the same ice-bozos that said there is no need for more
than 50
miles, nor 100 mile, nor 200+ mile range ... but the public is only
thinking
what those same ice experts have told them: more range is better, thus
more
range sells. %
http://www.theledger.com/news/20171022/746-miles-on-charge-experts-say-theres-no-need
746 miles on a charge? Experts say there’s no need
Oct 22, 2017 Eric D. Lawrence / Detroit Free Press
[image / ERIC D LAWRENCE/DETROIT FREE PRESS
http://www.theledger.com/storyimage/LK/20171022/NEWS/171029803/EP/1/1/EP-171029803.jpg?Q=75&maxW=960&maxH=960
(bolt) Industry watchers and auto executives are tapping the brakes on
the
idea that the future of mainstream electric vehicles will be tied to an
ever-expanding range. Some now say they believe the sweet spot for
battery
range might already have been reached
]
DETROIT — Elon Musk predicted two years ago that a Tesla should be able
to
travel almost 746 miles on a single charge by 2020.
It was considered a bold statement from a CEO known for making bold
statements, but it was also a sentiment that reflected a widely held
belief
in the inevitability of, and need for, increasingly longer-range
electric
vehicles if the vehicles were ever to truly gain traction with
consumers.
Electric vehicle battery technology has improved since that 2015
prediction
and some vehicles continue to push the limits for range — some versions
of
Tesla’s Model S luxury sedan already rate at more than 330 miles on a
charge
under normal conditions, and an Italian Tesla owners group said in
August
that it managed 670 miles driving with no air-conditioning at 25 mph.
But recent assessments by industry watchers and auto executives are
tapping
the brakes on the idea that the foreseeable future of mainstream
electric
vehicles will be tied to an ever-expanding range.
Some experts now say they believe the sweet spot for battery range
might
already have been reached.
“I wouldn’t expect to see vehicles go much beyond about 300 miles per
range
and I think most mainstream EVs are probably going to be in the, kind
of
where the Bolt is now, 200 to 240 miles of range, and I think the
200-mile
threshold is really kind of the sweet spot for EV,” said Sam
Abuelsamid, a
senior analyst at Navigant Research who is based in the Detroit area.
The idea will get tested as an increasing number of automakers roll out
new
electric vehicles in coming years.
Ford and General Motors, for instance, made major EV (shorthand for
electric
vehicles) announcements in recent weeks, with Ford saying it would
invest
$4.5 billion and introduce 13 new electric vehicles in the next five
years
and GM promising to have more than 20 EVs on sale by 2023. Plenty of
other
automakers — Volvo, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz among them — have also
made
recent EV announcements as countries like China threaten to eventually
ban
gas engines.
A major reason that EV battery range might not see significant
increases in
the near term is simply cost, which increases with more capable
electric-vehicle batteries. Adding more battery to an electric vehicle
also
adds weight, which would affect vehicle payload — a consideration
likely to
be more important as automakers launch electric trucks and SUVs.
When Nissan brought its 2018 Leaf to a technology conference in Detroit
in
September, the company said it was targeting value customers with the
150-mile electric range vehicle, with a price tag starting at under
$30,000.
That level marks an improvement over the previous version’s 84-mile
range,
but it falls well short of the Bolt and the various Tesla models. The
company does plan to release a longer-range version, but the issue of
adding
cost gets at a key issue for automakers.
Both the Bolt and the Tesla Model 3, Tesla’s attempt to launch an
electric
vehicle for the masses — only get below $30,000 with government
incentives.
The Model 3 starts at $35,000 but there’s a waiting list and the base
model
may not offer what Tesla fans expect, meaning the true cost would
likely be
higher. The Bolt, which is now available nationwide, starts at $37,495
before a $7,500 federal tax credit.
Abuelsamid noted that each manufacturer has a limited number of
credits, and
he expects both GM and Tesla to hit that limit as early as next year.
That
would mean the cost for some of the most popular EVs will likely go up
because the Trump administration is not expected to seek an extension
of
those credits.
Britta Gross, GM’s director of advanced vehicle commercialization
policy,
discussed the issue of battery range in August at a state conference
weighing the best route to expand Michigan’s public charging
infrastructure,
saying that she does not believe the future of electric vehicles is in
batteries that can power a vehicle for close to 800 miles on a charge.
“No, I don’t see that happening at all,” she said, noting that longer
ranges
add cost and an automaker’s priority now is in reducing the cost of
technology for electric vehicles.
Battery range has been a key focus for those trying to determine what
it
will take to get more consumers to buy electric vehicles, which are a
small,
though growing, fraction of the U.S. vehicle market. Range anxiety is a
phrase used to describe the concern that a vehicle will not have enough
charge to get an electric vehicle driver to his or her destination,
potentially leaving them stranded. Limited public charging options in
some
areas can magnify the concern.
But most daily driving falls well short of the Bolt’s 238-mile range or
even
the 150 miles possible with the Leaf.
“Americans’ driving patterns really don’t change with electric
vehicles, so
regardless of whether your vehicle has an 80-mile all-battery range or
now
maybe 238 like the Bolt EV, most Americans are still doing about 40
miles a
day of travel commuting to and from work,” Gross said.
And that 40-mile estimate might even be generous. An AAA Foundation for
Traffic Safety survey released in September found that the average
daily
commute is less than 30 miles.
Gross said range becomes an issue on longer trips because of limited
public
charging infrastructure, which in Michigan is mostly clustered in the
Detroit area. The conference this summer, organized by the Michigan
Public
Service Commission, was a response to a proposal from Consumers Energy
for
the utility to provide additional charging stations. Consumers
rescinded the
proposal after getting pushback from various entities, including the
attorney general’s office, which raised concerns about utility
ratepayers
footing the bill for electric vehicle charging.
Most electric vehicle drivers charge at home, often plugging in
overnight,
so charge time is not much of an issue. But EVs lose the convenience
battle
against gas-powered cars on longer trips because even most
fast-charging
options — typically 50 to 70 miles of range per 20 minutes of charging
—
cannot yet match a stop for fuel at a gas station.
Rebecca Lindland, senior director and executive analyst for Kelley Blue
Book, said a range of up to 240 miles is more than sufficient for
several
days of typical driving for most people, but she agreed that
fast-charging
limitations are a problem.
Charging time “absolutely needs to come down,” she said.
The range issue gets at a key perception problem for electric vehicles.
Consumers who are not familiar with electric vehicles or plugging in a
vehicle at home might worry more about battery range than is warranted.
Abuelsamid noted that some people purchase a truck so they can haul
their
boat twice a year when it might be more cost-effective to buy an EV for
daily driving and rent another type of vehicle to handle other kinds of
heavy-duty tasks.
“If consumers were completely logical, which of course we know that
they’re
not, then they would buy only what they know they actually need. They
tend
to set their requirement based on their worst-case specification,”
Abuelsamid said.
[© 2017 GateHouse Media]
https://www.therecord.com/news-story/7665812-746-miles-on-a-charge-experts-say-sweet-spot-for-electric-vehicles-is-less/
746 miles on a charge? Experts say sweet spot for electric vehicles ...
Experts say sweet spot for electric vehicles is less ... Adding more
battery
to an electric vehicle also adds weight, which would affect vehicle
payload
— a ...
...
http://www.heraldnet.com/business/746-miles-on-a-charge-electric-vehicle-sweet-spot-is-less/
746 miles on a charge? Electric vehicle sweet spot is less
Electric vehicle battery technology has improved since that 2015
prediction
and some vehicles continue to push the limits for range — some versions
of
Tesla's ...
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