Charles wrote:

>(BTW, would I be right in thinking that, applying the SSA to a person who 
>"finds himself" to be 1 year old, the chances that he'll
>live to be 80 is 1/80?)

This argument (against Leslie Bayesian Doomsday argument) has been
developped by Jean Paul Delahaye in the journal "Pour la Science" 
(french version of the "Scientific American").
I have not the precise reference under the hand. I think it is
a good point against too quick use of Bayes in infinite or continuous
context.

Bruno


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