Which reasoning is clearly false?
Here's what I'm thinking:
1) The conclusion "I won't be surprised to be hanged Friday if I am not
hanged by Thursday" creates another proposition to be surprised about. By
leaving the condition of 'surprise' open ended, it could include being
surprised that the judge lied, or any number of other soft contingencies
that could render an 'unexpected' outcome. The condition of expectation
isn't an objective phenomenon, it is a subjective inference. Objectively,
there is no surprise as objects don't anticipate anything.
2) If we want to close in tightly on the quantitative logic of whether
deducibility can be deduced - given five coin flips and a certainty that
one will be heads, each successive tails coin flip increases the odds that
one the remaining flips will be heads. The fifth coin will either be 100%
likely to be heads, or will prove that the certainty assumed was 100% wrong.
I think the paradox hinges on 1) the false inference of objectivity in the
use of the word surprise and 2) the false assertion of omniscience by the
judge. It's like an Escher drawing. In real life, surprise cannot be
predicted with certainty and the quality of unexpectedness it is not an
objective thing, just as expectation is not an objective thing.
On Thursday, September 12, 2013 5:33:24 AM UTC-4, telmo_menezes wrote:
> Time for some philosophy then :)
> Here's a paradox that's making me lose sleep:
> Probably many of you already know about it.
> What mostly bothers me is the epistemological crisis that this
> introduces. I cannot find a problem with the reasoning, but it's
> clearly false. So I know that I don't know why this reasoning is
> false. Now, how can I know if there are other types of reasoning that
> I don't even know that I don't know that they are correct?
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