On 05 Oct 2013, at 03:07, meekerdb wrote:

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On 10/4/2013 2:14 PM, LizR wrote:On 5 October 2013 06:53, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:He comes to this because he's *defined* "Knightian uncertainty" asradical unpredictability without randomness.I don't see why it doesn't entail randomness, especially if itcomes from quantum fluctuations during the big bang.I found that a little puzzling too. But I happen to be readingScott's book "Quantum Computing Since Democritus" too; and in it hegives more of an explanation. He notes that there are some thingswhich are undetermined but which it doesn't seem possible to assigna probability distribution to, more precisely there are quitedifferent probability distributions that seem equally applicable.He discusses a few examples. The Doomsday argument is one that isprobably known to everyone on this list.

`I agree with this. In the doomsday argument the use of Bayes formula`

`is valid, but the premisse ask for an ASSA (absolute self-sampling`

`assumption, in Bostrom terms).`

He notes that one could estimate a probability using a self-samplingassumption or a self-indicial assumption and they produce differentanswers. His general conclusion is that there are undeterminedthings that are not random.

OK.

I think he would put Bruno's FPI in that class.

`FPI needs only the RSSA, and I don't think it falls in the class.`

`Indeed, the distribution is given by the usual binomial or normal,`

`coupled or not with the UD.`

And apparently that's what he thinks initial conditions of theuniverse could be.

`Of course that makes the whole point very weak. he has to assumled`

`some primitive physical reality, with a strange and incomprehensible`

`cause or start.`

Incidentally, I highly recommend the book.But even if it doesn't, it still doesn't seem to me to lead to"free will worth having".I agree with Dennett there: Determinism can provide all the freedomworth having.

`I agree with this. Even interesting and relevant notion of free-will,`

`for which indeterminacy of any kind is useless.`

Bruno http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/ -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.