On Fri, Feb 21, 2014 at 03:48:43AM +0000, chris peck wrote: > > My probabilities get assigned in the same way. ie: chance of seeing solar > system A is 1. I can't assign a probability of seeing Solar System B if I > don't know about the possibility of accidents. But, > If I know that there is a small chance of the accident you describe then the > probabilities end up: > > Solar System A : 1 > Solar System B : small chance. > > Note that the probability of seeing Solar System A doesn't end up (1-small > chance) as far as I am concerned. > > Also note that in the MWI example, where small chances require a world of > their own, the probabilities end up: > > Solar System A : 1 > Solar System B : 1. > > So the probabilities work out slightly differently. I'm sure its an unpopular view but as I see it probabilities, however small, get rounded up to 1 in MWI scenarios.
This contradicts Kolmogorov's 4th axiom of probability, namely that the probability of the certain event = 1. In your probabilities, the probability of the certain event of seeing either solar system A or seeing solar system B, or something else entirely different again ends up being greater than or equal to 2. So maybe you can give meaning to your measure, but it aint probability as we known it. -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders Visiting Professor of Mathematics [email protected] University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
