Hi Russel >> This contradicts Kolmogorov's 4th axiom of probability, namely that the probability of the certain event = 1.
Yes it does doesnt it. But thats ok. Im not convinced Kolmogorov had MWI in view when he dreamt up his axioms and Im too green behind the ears vis a vis probability axioms to know whether it matters much. But that 4th axiom does look like it might need revising. >>So maybe you can give meaning to your measure, but it aint probability as we known it. sure and thats fine by me. Particularly if these thought experiments are intended as analogies for MWI then I think probability loses meaning from both frog and bird's eye views. In fact, for any TofE where all possibilities are catered for probability is the first casualty. Its the logic of the situation that does violence to the concept of probability not the manner in which the plenitude is realized. What i think is unusual about my position is that I stand fast against uncertainty in frogs as well as birds. Thank goodness there are academics out there like Hilary Graves who think in tune with me, its an unusual position but not a unique one. All the best Chris. > Date: Fri, 21 Feb 2014 16:19:47 +1100 > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: 3-1 views (was: Re: Better Than the Chinese Room) > > On Fri, Feb 21, 2014 at 03:48:43AM +0000, chris peck wrote: > > > > My probabilities get assigned in the same way. ie: chance of seeing solar > > system A is 1. I can't assign a probability of seeing Solar System B if I > > don't know about the possibility of accidents. But, > > If I know that there is a small chance of the accident you describe then > > the probabilities end up: > > > > Solar System A : 1 > > Solar System B : small chance. > > > > Note that the probability of seeing Solar System A doesn't end up (1-small > > chance) as far as I am concerned. > > > > Also note that in the MWI example, where small chances require a world of > > their own, the probabilities end up: > > > > Solar System A : 1 > > Solar System B : 1. > > > > So the probabilities work out slightly differently. I'm sure its an > unpopular view but as I see it probabilities, however small, get > rounded up to 1 in MWI scenarios. > > This contradicts Kolmogorov's 4th axiom of probability, namely that the > probability of the certain event = 1. > > In your probabilities, the probability of the certain event of seeing > either solar system A or seeing solar system B, or something else > entirely different again ends up being greater than or equal to 2. > > So maybe you can give meaning to your measure, but it aint probability > as we known it. > > > -- > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) > Principal, High Performance Coders > Visiting Professor of Mathematics [email protected] > University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
