We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia was
planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should have
stopped Putin right there by sending large amounts of arms including
Patriot systems to Ukraine. Russia could then not have launched the
military assault it is engaging in now.
Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a
sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military
assistance. Also, Russia was at the time denying it was planning to
attack Ukraine, so why would they complain? We should then have engaged
with Russia about NATO membership and the military aid we were giving.
We should have made it clear to Russia that the military aid would come
with a military deployment, this would be limited to the de-facto
borders of Ukraine, so there would be no military action against the
Russian and rebel controlled parts.
This intervention would thus have blocked the Russian military action,
it would have given the initiatives to the West about discussions about
the future of Ukraine, NATO membership for Ukraine etc. We could have
made a deal with Russia about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member (this
wasn't in the cards anytime soon anyway). Ukraine would likely be more
willing to voluntarily agree to not seek NATO membership if a practical
alternative that blocks Russian aggression was already implemented. So,
NATO would not have to change its stance about sovereign countries being
able to seek NATO membership.
But it's now too late, Russia can only be slowed down a bit. Russia has
clearly underestimated the Ukrainian army. But it's also the case that
Russia has engaged Ukraine in a rather cautious way compared to the way
it was going about things in Syria and Chechnya. So, Russia can escalate
a whole lot more. Sanctions will cause economic problems for Russia, but
given that sanctions did little to stop Assad, even Maduro is still in
power despite the abject poverty in that country, I'm not optimistic
about sanctions against Russia being able to make much of a difference.
Basically, the doctrine we need to stick to is act from a position of
strength, hit hard when and where you can hit hard with maximum effect.
Also to avoid engaging from a position of weakness, and fighting for
ever smaller gains with more and more effort. We should now let Putin
fail in Ukraine by his own mistakes and focus our attention to other
potential flashpoints.
Saibal
On 27-02-2022 01:48, Bruce Kellett wrote:
On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 11:38 AM Brent Meeker <[email protected]>
wrote:
One problem is that the Russians won't know whether they are nukes
or not until they explode.
That problem can be overcome by simply telling them that the missiles
are not nuclear. There are channels of communication, after all.
I wonder how good our back channels are with the Russian military.
I doubt that they are very happy with Putin. The Ukranians seem
very willing to fight and I'd bet they will be a lot more motivated
than a bunch of Russian conscripts. So I think if we keep them
supplied they may make it too expensive in money, blood, and
prestige.
More worrying it what will we do when Xi starts massing troops on
the mainland opposite Taiwan? We're not in so good a position to
impose economic pressure on China.
I doubt that economic sanctions will do much good in the short term
with Russia, either. I think you are right -- the best bet is that the
Ukrainian resistance will wear the invaders down -- they expected a
short fight and easy victory, after all. Opposition is growing within
Russia itself. The dead bodies will be a big influence..... Russia
will not want another Afghanistan, or Chechnya.......
Bruce
Brent
On 2/26/2022 3:13 PM, Bruce Kellett wrote:
On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 10:04 AM Brent Meeker
<[email protected]> wrote:
It's not a question of sympathy, but of utility.
What would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault
on Moscow and Petersburg? Not nuclear, purely conventional. No
"boots on the ground", but some serious rethinking needed on
Russia's part. Just as the retaliatory British bombing of Berlin in
WW2 caused Hitler to loose his cool and gave Britain an advantage.
Of course, Putin might respond with a nuclear assault, but that
would certainly render his empire plans futile. It would be a
gamble, but I think the odds would be in favour of making Putin
pause rather than escalating further.
Bruce
Brent
On 2/26/2022 2:58 PM, John Clark wrote:
On Sat, Feb 26, 2022 at 5:41 PM Brent Meeker <[email protected]>
wrote:
_ > I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch
buddies. I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian
people. _
When one country decides to make war on it's neighbor misery is the
inevitable result, certainly the people of Ukraine are feeling it
and I'm certain the people of Russia will too. Call me a monster if
you want but at this moment I feel far less sympathy for the
invading country than the country being invaded.
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