Well, not really but Tsar Putin might succeed in changing a lot of minds.... We are obviously sending arms for free to Ukraine right now. Interesting times indeed. /henrik
Den sön 27 feb. 2022 kl 19:17 skrev Brent Meeker <[email protected]>: > I agree. I think the Ukranians may sustain a resistance which will > eventually cause Russia to withdraw, but that will take time. More > immediately I wonder if Finland and Sweden will want to join NATO? > > Brent > > On 2/27/2022 3:11 AM, smitra wrote: > > We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia > > was planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should > > have stopped Putin right there by sending large amounts of arms > > including Patriot systems to Ukraine. Russia could then not have > > launched the military assault it is engaging in now. > > > > Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a > > sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military > > assistance. Also, Russia was at the time denying it was planning to > > attack Ukraine, so why would they complain? We should then have > > engaged with Russia about NATO membership and the military aid we were > > giving. We should have made it clear to Russia that the military aid > > would come with a military deployment, this would be limited to the > > de-facto borders of Ukraine, so there would be no military action > > against the Russian and rebel controlled parts. > > > > This intervention would thus have blocked the Russian military action, > > it would have given the initiatives to the West about discussions > > about the future of Ukraine, NATO membership for Ukraine etc. We could > > have made a deal with Russia about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member > > (this wasn't in the cards anytime soon anyway). Ukraine would likely > > be more willing to voluntarily agree to not seek NATO membership if a > > practical alternative that blocks Russian aggression was already > > implemented. So, NATO would not have to change its stance about > > sovereign countries being able to seek NATO membership. > > > > But it's now too late, Russia can only be slowed down a bit. Russia > > has clearly underestimated the Ukrainian army. But it's also the case > > that Russia has engaged Ukraine in a rather cautious way compared to > > the way it was going about things in Syria and Chechnya. So, Russia > > can escalate a whole lot more. Sanctions will cause economic problems > > for Russia, but given that sanctions did little to stop Assad, even > > Maduro is still in power despite the abject poverty in that country, > > I'm not optimistic about sanctions against Russia being able to make > > much of a difference. > > > > Basically, the doctrine we need to stick to is act from a position of > > strength, hit hard when and where you can hit hard with maximum > > effect. Also to avoid engaging from a position of weakness, and > > fighting for ever smaller gains with more and more effort. We should > > now let Putin fail in Ukraine by his own mistakes and focus our > > attention to other potential flashpoints. > > > > Saibal > > > > > > > > On 27-02-2022 01:48, Bruce Kellett wrote: > >> On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 11:38 AM Brent Meeker <[email protected]> > >> wrote: > >> > >>> One problem is that the Russians won't know whether they are nukes > >>> or not until they explode. > >> > >> That problem can be overcome by simply telling them that the missiles > >> are not nuclear. There are channels of communication, after all. > >> > >>> I wonder how good our back channels are with the Russian military. > >>> I doubt that they are very happy with Putin. The Ukranians seem > >>> very willing to fight and I'd bet they will be a lot more motivated > >>> than a bunch of Russian conscripts. So I think if we keep them > >>> supplied they may make it too expensive in money, blood, and > >>> prestige. > >>> > >>> More worrying it what will we do when Xi starts massing troops on > >>> the mainland opposite Taiwan? We're not in so good a position to > >>> impose economic pressure on China. > >> > >> I doubt that economic sanctions will do much good in the short term > >> with Russia, either. I think you are right -- the best bet is that the > >> Ukrainian resistance will wear the invaders down -- they expected a > >> short fight and easy victory, after all. Opposition is growing within > >> Russia itself. The dead bodies will be a big influence..... Russia > >> will not want another Afghanistan, or Chechnya....... > >> > >> Bruce > >> > >>> Brent > >>> > >>> On 2/26/2022 3:13 PM, Bruce Kellett wrote: > >>> > >>> On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 10:04 AM Brent Meeker > >>> <[email protected]> wrote: > >>> > >>> It's not a question of sympathy, but of utility. > >>> > >>> What would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault > >>> on Moscow and Petersburg? Not nuclear, purely conventional. No > >>> "boots on the ground", but some serious rethinking needed on > >>> Russia's part. Just as the retaliatory British bombing of Berlin in > >>> WW2 caused Hitler to loose his cool and gave Britain an advantage. > >>> Of course, Putin might respond with a nuclear assault, but that > >>> would certainly render his empire plans futile. It would be a > >>> gamble, but I think the odds would be in favour of making Putin > >>> pause rather than escalating further. > >>> > >>> Bruce > >>> > >>> Brent > >>> > >>> On 2/26/2022 2:58 PM, John Clark wrote: > >>> > >>> On Sat, Feb 26, 2022 at 5:41 PM Brent Meeker <[email protected]> > >>> wrote: > >>> > >>> _ > I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch > >>> buddies. I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian > >>> people. _ > >>> > >>> When one country decides to make war on it's neighbor misery is the > >>> inevitable result, certainly the people of Ukraine are feeling it > >>> and I'm certain the people of Russia will too. Call me a monster if > >>> you want but at this moment I feel far less sympathy for the > >>> invading country than the country being invaded. > >> > >> -- > >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > >> Groups "Everything List" group. > >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send > >> an email to [email protected]. > >> To view this discussion on the web visit > >> > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLS9KotZyVSzct2Dqmqm7WxuksPogwXhK4PeqR4XMAEDsg%40mail.gmail.com > >> > >> [1]. > >> > >> > >> Links: > >> ------ > >> [1] > >> > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLS9KotZyVSzct2Dqmqm7WxuksPogwXhK4PeqR4XMAEDsg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer > >> > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/043431e2-1b62-a42c-6c62-55254eb144d5%40gmail.com > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. 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