I have read that they now fear a Putin invasion, being rather immanent.
-----Original Message----- From: Brent Meeker <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Sent: Sun, Feb 27, 2022 1:17 pm Subject: Re: Ukraine I agree. I think the Ukranians may sustain a resistance which will eventually cause Russia to withdraw, but that will take time. More immediately I wonder if Finland and Sweden will want to join NATO? Brent On 2/27/2022 3:11 AM, smitra wrote: > We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia > was planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should > have stopped Putin right there by sending large amounts of arms > including Patriot systems to Ukraine. Russia could then not have > launched the military assault it is engaging in now. > > Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a > sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military > assistance. Also, Russia was at the time denying it was planning to > attack Ukraine, so why would they complain? We should then have > engaged with Russia about NATO membership and the military aid we were > giving. We should have made it clear to Russia that the military aid > would come with a military deployment, this would be limited to the > de-facto borders of Ukraine, so there would be no military action > against the Russian and rebel controlled parts. > > This intervention would thus have blocked the Russian military action, > it would have given the initiatives to the West about discussions > about the future of Ukraine, NATO membership for Ukraine etc. We could > have made a deal with Russia about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member > (this wasn't in the cards anytime soon anyway). Ukraine would likely > be more willing to voluntarily agree to not seek NATO membership if a > practical alternative that blocks Russian aggression was already > implemented. So, NATO would not have to change its stance about > sovereign countries being able to seek NATO membership. > > But it's now too late, Russia can only be slowed down a bit. Russia > has clearly underestimated the Ukrainian army. But it's also the case > that Russia has engaged Ukraine in a rather cautious way compared to > the way it was going about things in Syria and Chechnya. So, Russia > can escalate a whole lot more. Sanctions will cause economic problems > for Russia, but given that sanctions did little to stop Assad, even > Maduro is still in power despite the abject poverty in that country, > I'm not optimistic about sanctions against Russia being able to make > much of a difference. > > Basically, the doctrine we need to stick to is act from a position of > strength, hit hard when and where you can hit hard with maximum > effect. Also to avoid engaging from a position of weakness, and > fighting for ever smaller gains with more and more effort. We should > now let Putin fail in Ukraine by his own mistakes and focus our > attention to other potential flashpoints. > > Saibal > > > > On 27-02-2022 01:48, Bruce Kellett wrote: >> On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 11:38 AM Brent Meeker <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> One problem is that the Russians won't know whether they are nukes >>> or not until they explode. >> >> That problem can be overcome by simply telling them that the missiles >> are not nuclear. There are channels of communication, after all. >> >>> I wonder how good our back channels are with the Russian military. >>> I doubt that they are very happy with Putin. The Ukranians seem >>> very willing to fight and I'd bet they will be a lot more motivated >>> than a bunch of Russian conscripts. So I think if we keep them >>> supplied they may make it too expensive in money, blood, and >>> prestige. >>> >>> More worrying it what will we do when Xi starts massing troops on >>> the mainland opposite Taiwan? We're not in so good a position to >>> impose economic pressure on China. >> >> I doubt that economic sanctions will do much good in the short term >> with Russia, either. I think you are right -- the best bet is that the >> Ukrainian resistance will wear the invaders down -- they expected a >> short fight and easy victory, after all. Opposition is growing within >> Russia itself. The dead bodies will be a big influence..... Russia >> will not want another Afghanistan, or Chechnya....... >> >> Bruce >> >>> Brent >>> >>> On 2/26/2022 3:13 PM, Bruce Kellett wrote: >>> >>> On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 10:04 AM Brent Meeker >>> <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> It's not a question of sympathy, but of utility. >>> >>> What would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault >>> on Moscow and Petersburg? Not nuclear, purely conventional. No >>> "boots on the ground", but some serious rethinking needed on >>> Russia's part. Just as the retaliatory British bombing of Berlin in >>> WW2 caused Hitler to loose his cool and gave Britain an advantage. >>> Of course, Putin might respond with a nuclear assault, but that >>> would certainly render his empire plans futile. It would be a >>> gamble, but I think the odds would be in favour of making Putin >>> pause rather than escalating further. >>> >>> Bruce >>> >>> Brent >>> >>> On 2/26/2022 2:58 PM, John Clark wrote: >>> >>> On Sat, Feb 26, 2022 at 5:41 PM Brent Meeker <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> _ > I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch >>> buddies. I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian >>> people. _ >>> >>> When one country decides to make war on it's neighbor misery is the >>> inevitable result, certainly the people of Ukraine are feeling it >>> and I'm certain the people of Russia will too. Call me a monster if >>> you want but at this moment I feel far less sympathy for the >>> invading country than the country being invaded. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >> an email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLS9KotZyVSzct2Dqmqm7WxuksPogwXhK4PeqR4XMAEDsg%40mail.gmail.com >> >> >> [1]. >> >> >> Links: >> ------ >> [1] >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLS9KotZyVSzct2Dqmqm7WxuksPogwXhK4PeqR4XMAEDsg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer >> >> > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/043431e2-1b62-a42c-6c62-55254eb144d5%40gmail.com. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1090743368.1639042.1646019399702%40mail.yahoo.com.
