I have read that they now fear a Putin invasion, being rather immanent.
-----Original Message----- From: Brent Meeker <meekerbr...@gmail.com> To: everything-list@googlegroups.com Sent: Sun, Feb 27, 2022 1:17 pm Subject: Re: Ukraine I agree. I think the Ukranians may sustain a resistance which will eventually cause Russia to withdraw, but that will take time. More immediately I wonder if Finland and Sweden will want to join NATO? Brent On 2/27/2022 3:11 AM, smitra wrote: > We should have acted weeks earlier. When it became clear that Russia > was planning some sort of a large scale military assault, we should > have stopped Putin right there by sending large amounts of arms > including Patriot systems to Ukraine. Russia could then not have > launched the military assault it is engaging in now. > > Russian protests should have been rebuffed by saying that Ukraine is a > sovereign country and it is therefore allowed to request military > assistance. Also, Russia was at the time denying it was planning to > attack Ukraine, so why would they complain? We should then have > engaged with Russia about NATO membership and the military aid we were > giving. We should have made it clear to Russia that the military aid > would come with a military deployment, this would be limited to the > de-facto borders of Ukraine, so there would be no military action > against the Russian and rebel controlled parts. > > This intervention would thus have blocked the Russian military action, > it would have given the initiatives to the West about discussions > about the future of Ukraine, NATO membership for Ukraine etc. We could > have made a deal with Russia about Ukraine not becoming a NATO member > (this wasn't in the cards anytime soon anyway). Ukraine would likely > be more willing to voluntarily agree to not seek NATO membership if a > practical alternative that blocks Russian aggression was already > implemented. So, NATO would not have to change its stance about > sovereign countries being able to seek NATO membership. > > But it's now too late, Russia can only be slowed down a bit. Russia > has clearly underestimated the Ukrainian army. But it's also the case > that Russia has engaged Ukraine in a rather cautious way compared to > the way it was going about things in Syria and Chechnya. So, Russia > can escalate a whole lot more. Sanctions will cause economic problems > for Russia, but given that sanctions did little to stop Assad, even > Maduro is still in power despite the abject poverty in that country, > I'm not optimistic about sanctions against Russia being able to make > much of a difference. > > Basically, the doctrine we need to stick to is act from a position of > strength, hit hard when and where you can hit hard with maximum > effect. Also to avoid engaging from a position of weakness, and > fighting for ever smaller gains with more and more effort. We should > now let Putin fail in Ukraine by his own mistakes and focus our > attention to other potential flashpoints. > > Saibal > > > > On 27-02-2022 01:48, Bruce Kellett wrote: >> On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 11:38 AM Brent Meeker <meekerbr...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> One problem is that the Russians won't know whether they are nukes >>> or not until they explode. >> >> That problem can be overcome by simply telling them that the missiles >> are not nuclear. There are channels of communication, after all. >> >>> I wonder how good our back channels are with the Russian military. >>> I doubt that they are very happy with Putin. The Ukranians seem >>> very willing to fight and I'd bet they will be a lot more motivated >>> than a bunch of Russian conscripts. So I think if we keep them >>> supplied they may make it too expensive in money, blood, and >>> prestige. >>> >>> More worrying it what will we do when Xi starts massing troops on >>> the mainland opposite Taiwan? We're not in so good a position to >>> impose economic pressure on China. >> >> I doubt that economic sanctions will do much good in the short term >> with Russia, either. I think you are right -- the best bet is that the >> Ukrainian resistance will wear the invaders down -- they expected a >> short fight and easy victory, after all. Opposition is growing within >> Russia itself. The dead bodies will be a big influence..... Russia >> will not want another Afghanistan, or Chechnya....... >> >> Bruce >> >>> Brent >>> >>> On 2/26/2022 3:13 PM, Bruce Kellett wrote: >>> >>> On Sun, Feb 27, 2022 at 10:04 AM Brent Meeker >>> <meekerbr...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>> It's not a question of sympathy, but of utility. >>> >>> What would happen if NATO launched an all-out cruise missile assault >>> on Moscow and Petersburg? Not nuclear, purely conventional. No >>> "boots on the ground", but some serious rethinking needed on >>> Russia's part. Just as the retaliatory British bombing of Berlin in >>> WW2 caused Hitler to loose his cool and gave Britain an advantage. >>> Of course, Putin might respond with a nuclear assault, but that >>> would certainly render his empire plans futile. It would be a >>> gamble, but I think the odds would be in favour of making Putin >>> pause rather than escalating further. >>> >>> Bruce >>> >>> Brent >>> >>> On 2/26/2022 2:58 PM, John Clark wrote: >>> >>> On Sat, Feb 26, 2022 at 5:41 PM Brent Meeker <meekerbr...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>> _ > I'm fine with seizing the money of Putin and his oligarch >>> buddies. I'm less sanguine about just impoverishing the Russian >>> people. _ >>> >>> When one country decides to make war on it's neighbor misery is the >>> inevitable result, certainly the people of Ukraine are feeling it >>> and I'm certain the people of Russia will too. Call me a monster if >>> you want but at this moment I feel far less sympathy for the >>> invading country than the country being invaded. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >> an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLS9KotZyVSzct2Dqmqm7WxuksPogwXhK4PeqR4XMAEDsg%40mail.gmail.com >> >> >> [1]. >> >> >> Links: >> ------ >> [1] >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAFxXSLS9KotZyVSzct2Dqmqm7WxuksPogwXhK4PeqR4XMAEDsg%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer >> >> > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/043431e2-1b62-a42c-6c62-55254eb144d5%40gmail.com. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1090743368.1639042.1646019399702%40mail.yahoo.com.
