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On 3/19/20 5:04 AM, RKOB via Marxism wrote:
“But many scientists support this!” Is it really the case that
scientists are above classes and class interests?
I know that one scientist is above class interests. His Marxist politics
have prevented him from getting a cushy job. I speak of Rob Wallace, who
is a FB friend and author of books and articles on agriculture and
epidemiology, including this:
https://secure-web.cisco.com/1DVhuP2i7SBGLv68K9O6KABC3jEBWa8udfaEVihNJpQuGCLuEmdBye-oPttl7I7UGEgbcf_us1_cgA3Q9jIRjToIVu7_xWkE4rG5LMuWG4RtYf7KPfgO1Bx4bpcSxmW-fN9aSXYGeeZ4eIS_6K6EGF9Ht6MwRfhsokIUJdhIzH_uFBpJjKqfqF8KX1_jZdTTBMHjDNChARKTQv13x-rKUCFE6CGZAn8zEJ9J9R-bqiZOrE2aO68l2nztjgSMRM-Ec9t7luplB-Fazm32gZy0YvQolCpf4yx3wmD7Eseu2pK0Gn9s7YbNulmAJu9n5JumJX6zf6hq6-Tjjdjqo_3A0ZTHivueYAhmkTuM6hzbhfE2ZK7yR3TOjudryf1MQ6klY/https%3A%2F%2Fwww.counterpunch.org%2F2020%2F02%2F24%2Fconnecting-the-coronavirus-to-agriculture%2F
He has also posted this on FB. You'll note that he describes home
quarantine, etc. as the "best-case scenario" for preventing deaths. For
my own sake at least, I will be following his lead:
The death load I quote below is for the best-case scenario under
mitigation strategies alone: case isolation, home quarantine, and social
distancing of the elderly. The authors do not offer an estimate when
adding a suppression strategy of, for instance, closing schools and
universities. However, as we are unlikely to match the best of either
strategies, the death toll will likely still shock us. Especially as we
have orders fewer critical care beds available than COVID-19 cases
likely to come.
________________________________
Prepare for the worst.
Neil Ferguson's modeling group out of Imperial College has some very bad
news http://secure-web.cisco.com/193nZo89C_ZrsNaNWupN009tnZ7aWrGt-ovYQZwX8DXOnCQcKFqFb4EHvbI7m-V-UiN5zIwAxMiFY-um211L-xcO5y5hg-ANyb87kZM6HCAGbf4oLxeUsK8twbzs086VQaEmXBc3LcY54AECKX2HH6qO3m89FedsKUoZ9bL8dchcXGSL5b2Sb3i9d1LwT2zplevLvCz9JS1vuLwyM-R8pMct8oMKWn3bGawaLgRgK5PuFBO4403io8ozHvEKwLGArpCC3ka9Omf68iFfFohXsZeaAlHvJF_dG5bBxGB7YrDfqgSgD8rD447S6Yv5YbWOD02rn9rRIAcPcI2DIsSoox97-4PT5RjcmO6Mli13-g7WNgVRWoCREfKcmrYl41wqS/http%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F33lM7CE%3A
"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely
to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US
healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective
mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short
epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of
the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would
be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for
critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all
patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the
order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."
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