Hi all, Great post - I, too, am eager to see what happens with the development of this system. Following David N and David LP thoughts, with such strong southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico later this week, I'd expect a nice pulse of early spring migrants into the Gulf states and beyond; with winds at 925 mb at the speeds currently forecast, it appears that trans-Gulf flights would head far inland assuming no adverse conditions after crossing the Gulf coast upon arrival in the US. So, too, for migrants the central and eastern US, I'd expect a pulse of late winterers, facultative migrants, and early spring arrivals to take flight (I agree with David LP in comments farther below in what he suggests about obligate nocturnal migrants that are farther afield in points south - however, I'd think a good chance for early Neotrop. stragglers of the longer distance type in Texas given the strength and magnitude of the flow predicted - attention to TXBIRDS and FLBIRDS should indicate that if we see/hear it!).
As Dave N. suggested, a little later this week would be a great time to deploy your microphones. . .central/eastern Plains states Monday/Tuesday and Tuesday/Wednesday night, the Appalachians and coastal plain thereafter. Even though winds aloft don't look particularly wonderful in the Northeast until late in the weekend, I suspect that we'll see a flight after this moisture-laden system clears out. . . Also of interest will be the outcome of the strong southerly flow and tremendous moisture moving up the Atlantic coast now in terms of early southern spring overshoots. Not likely to be particularly good conditions for deploying microphones, of course, but I'll be interested to see what and if anything appears in the Northeast and maritimes with favorable conditions for departure from the Greater Antilles/Caribbean and rather unfavorable conditions for arrival along the eastern seaboard. Best, Andrew On Sun, Mar 28, 2010 at 9:04 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> wrote: > David, > > It is a transient pattern but anomalously warm. Attached is a 20 model > ensemble mean forecast > of air temperature projection for next Saturday at 925 mb (1-2 thousand > feet AGL). > It shows temperatures reaching 16C (60F) which translates to 70s and lower > 80s on the surface. > This is between *2 and 3 standard deviations above climatology* for this > time of year. > Record high temperatures are possible in upstate NY and parts of the > northeast and > New England. I expect it to last from Thursday to Saturday, possibly into > Sunday. The Gulf > will have prolonged southerly winds beginning Wednesday and lasting into > the weekend at > 925 mb according to our multimodel ensemble runs. See attached image from > the height of > this flow. > > It will be interested to check bird list servers across the southern states > into > the middle Atlantic to see what kind of species begin arriving later this > week. Normally I stick to > forecasting the weather but it is fun to attempt to predict bird species > migration > based on their migratory timetables and weather patterns. > > Anyway, it should become very interesting for those who monitor night > calls. > > Good birding to all! > > Dave Nicosia > Johnson City, NY > > ------------------------------ > *From:* David La Puma <woodcree...@gmail.com> > *To:* david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > *Sent:* Sun, March 28, 2010 8:07:24 PM > *Subject:* Re: [nfc-l] Big Migratory Push Next Week Eastern U.S?? > > David > > Cool stuff! So could you elaborate on the uniqueness of this weather > pattern for this time of year? I think any consistent favorable migration > conditions could influence the movement of certain species, but not all of > them. Neotropical migrants (or long-distance migrants) are more likely > evolutionarily hard-wired to leave around fixed dates, because of the > uncertainty associated with early departure regardless of meteorological > opportunity. Short-distance migrants, on the other hand, may just jump on > the train if given the opportunity. It's possible, though, that the point is > moot, as we are getting to the time when Neotrops make the leap more and > more frequently. I'd be interested (as I already mentioned) in whether this > pattern is truly unique, or falls within the regular range of variation. > Either way, it's great to have a meteorologist thinking about these things > as well! > > Hope to see more of you on the list. > > Cheers, > > David > ________________________ > > David A. La Puma, Ph.D. > Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory > birds > New Jersey Audubon Society > 600 Route 47 North > Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 > Office: 609.861.1608 x33 > Fax: 609.861.1651 > > Websites: > http://www.woodcreeper.com > http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com > > Photos: > http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper > > > > > > > On Fri, Mar 26, 2010 at 5:43 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com>wrote: > >> All, >> >> Being a meteorologist, I can't help myself here, but >> the potential exists for an early "heat" wave in the eastern 1/2 of >> U.S beginning Wednesday and lasting into next weekend(April 3-4). >> >> A very large and anomalous high pressure system is projected >> to set up off the southeast U.S coast by Wednesday/Thursday next week >> and bring strong southerly winds across the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest >> Wednesday/Thursday and to the northeast/Middle Atlantic Friday >> to Saturday. This is a classic "Bermuda" High pressure set-up. >> >> Very unusual warmth is expected if these projections hold true. I could >> see widespread 70s and 80s all the way north to the Great Lakes and >> possibly even to New England. >> >> This would certainly mean a major early migratory push with many species >> arriving very early relative to median arrival dates. The first >> major influx of neo-tropical migrants would be seen into the southern >> and even central U.S. >> >> check out the following website for 925 mb(few thousand feet AGL) >> wind projections for late next week.... >> >> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_925_wnd.gif >> >> or a loop. >> >> >> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_925_wnd&loop=1 >> >> Dave Nicosia >> Johnson City, NY >> >> >> >> >> >> >> > > > -- NFC-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/nfc-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
