stinkin linkin here's a better link: *http://tinyurl.com/ygdql7j
thanks Don! *________________________ David A. La Puma, Ph.D. Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory birds New Jersey Audubon Society 600 Route 47 North Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 Office: 609.861.1608 x33 Fax: 609.861.1651 Websites: http://www.woodcreeper.com http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com Photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper On Tue, Mar 30, 2010 at 10:01 AM, Donald P. Freiday < don.frei...@njaudubon.org> wrote: > FYI the hotlink doesn’t go to the shared map – second half of the address > didn’t get included. Most people will figure it out I think, but you might > want to send an explanation. Great idea! > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Donald P. Freiday, > > Director of Birding Programs, > > New Jersey Audubon's Cape May Bird Observatory > > (609) 861-0700 x16 > > don.frei...@njaudubon.org > > www.bircapemay.org > ------------------------------ > > *From:* bounce-5497927-10072...@list.cornell.edu [mailto: > bounce-5497927-10072...@list.cornell.edu] *On Behalf Of *David La Puma > *Sent:* Tuesday, March 30, 2010 9:48 AM > *To:* NFC-L@cornell.edu > *Subject:* Re: Fw: [nfc-l] Big Migratory Push Next Week Eastern U.S?? > > > > The radar lit up last night, all the way from Corpus Christi, TX up to > Minneapolis, MN (*http://tinyurl.com/y8kfseh)*. Was anyone out listening? > Seeing that map also got me wondering, where IS everyone on this list? (I > mean, where are you, geographically). > > I've created a Google Map where you can enter your location, if you wish. I > figured this would be a good way for all of us to know what areas are > covered, need coverage, and/or a way for us to meet up and coordinate some > night listening. This is a public map, so I wouldn't put too much info. I > put my name in the town where I live, but left out any specific address, or > any equipment notes. It might be interesting to put whether you have a fixed > listening station and if it will be running throughout the season, but I > leave that up to you to decide. We can also make it private, and invite the > entire group, in which case we might feel more comfortable sharing more > specifics. Again, I leave this up to the group to decide. > > Here's the map link: > > I've shared a map with you called NFC-L Participants: > > http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid= > 114178876640194201766.00048304aef30c862820d > > Looking forward to seeing the map fill out! > > Cheers, > > David > > > ________________________ > > David A. La Puma, Ph.D. > Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory > birds > New Jersey Audubon Society > 600 Route 47 North > Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 > Office: 609.861.1608 x33 > Fax: 609.861.1651 > > Websites: > http://www.woodcreeper.com > http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com > > Photos: > http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper > > > > > > On Mon, Mar 29, 2010 at 1:30 PM, Andrew Farnsworth < > andrew.farnswo...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Hi all, > > Great post - I, too, am eager to see what happens with the development of > this system. Following David N and David LP thoughts, with such strong > southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico later this week, I'd expect a nice > pulse of early spring migrants into the Gulf states and beyond; with winds > at 925 mb at the speeds currently forecast, it appears that trans-Gulf > flights would head far inland assuming no adverse conditions after crossing > the Gulf coast upon arrival in the US. So, too, for migrants the central > and eastern US, I'd expect a pulse of late winterers, facultative migrants, > and early spring arrivals to take flight (I agree with David LP in comments > farther below in what he suggests about obligate nocturnal migrants that are > farther afield in points south - however, I'd think a good chance for early > Neotrop. stragglers of the longer distance type in Texas given the strength > and magnitude of the flow predicted - attention to TXBIRDS and FLBIRDS > should indicate that if we see/hear it!). > > > > As Dave N. suggested, a little later this week would be a great time to > deploy your microphones. . .central/eastern Plains states Monday/Tuesday and > Tuesday/Wednesday night, the Appalachians and coastal plain thereafter. > Even though winds aloft don't look particularly wonderful in the Northeast > until late in the weekend, I suspect that we'll see a flight after this > moisture-laden system clears out. . . > > > > Also of interest will be the outcome of the strong southerly flow and > tremendous moisture moving up the Atlantic coast now in terms of early > southern spring overshoots. Not likely to be particularly good conditions > for deploying microphones, of course, but I'll be interested to see what and > if anything appears in the Northeast and maritimes with favorable conditions > for departure from the Greater Antilles/Caribbean and rather unfavorable > conditions for arrival along the eastern seaboard. > > > > Best, > > Andrew > > > > On Sun, Mar 28, 2010 at 9:04 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > wrote: > > David, > > > > It is a transient pattern but anomalously warm. Attached is a 20 model > ensemble mean forecast > > of air temperature projection for next Saturday at 925 mb (1-2 thousand > feet AGL). > > It shows temperatures reaching 16C (60F) which translates to 70s and lower > 80s on the surface. > > This is between *2 and 3 standard deviations above climatology* for this > time of year. > Record high temperatures are possible in upstate NY and parts of the > northeast and > > New England. I expect it to last from Thursday to Saturday, possibly into > Sunday. The Gulf > will have prolonged southerly winds beginning Wednesday and lasting into > the weekend at > > 925 mb according to our multimodel ensemble runs. See attached image from > the height of > > this flow. > > > > It will be interested to check bird list servers across the southern states > into > > the middle Atlantic to see what kind of species begin arriving later this > week. Normally I stick to > > forecasting the weather but it is fun to attempt to predict bird species > migration > > based on their migratory timetables and weather patterns. > > > > Anyway, it should become very interesting for those who monitor night > calls. > > > > Good birding to all! > > > > Dave Nicosia > > Johnson City, NY > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* David La Puma <woodcree...@gmail.com> > *To:* david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > *Sent:* Sun, March 28, 2010 8:07:24 PM > *Subject:* Re: [nfc-l] Big Migratory Push Next Week Eastern U.S?? > > David > > Cool stuff! So could you elaborate on the uniqueness of this weather > pattern for this time of year? I think any consistent favorable migration > conditions could influence the movement of certain species, but not all of > them. Neotropical migrants (or long-distance migrants) are more likely > evolutionarily hard-wired to leave around fixed dates, because of the > uncertainty associated with early departure regardless of meteorological > opportunity. Short-distance migrants, on the other hand, may just jump on > the train if given the opportunity. It's possible, though, that the point is > moot, as we are getting to the time when Neotrops make the leap more and > more frequently. I'd be interested (as I already mentioned) in whether this > pattern is truly unique, or falls within the regular range of variation. > Either way, it's great to have a meteorologist thinking about these things > as well! > > Hope to see more of you on the list. > > Cheers, > > David > ________________________ > > David A. La Puma, Ph.D. > Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory > birds > New Jersey Audubon Society > 600 Route 47 North > Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 > Office: 609.861.1608 x33 > Fax: 609.861.1651 > > Websites: > http://www.woodcreeper.com > http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com > > Photos: > http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper > > > > > > On Fri, Mar 26, 2010 at 5:43 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > wrote: > > All, > > Being a meteorologist, I can't help myself here, but > the potential exists for an early "heat" wave in the eastern 1/2 of > U.S beginning Wednesday and lasting into next weekend(April 3-4). > > A very large and anomalous high pressure system is projected > to set up off the southeast U.S coast by Wednesday/Thursday next week > and bring strong southerly winds across the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest > Wednesday/Thursday and to the northeast/Middle Atlantic Friday > to Saturday. This is a classic "Bermuda" High pressure set-up. > > Very unusual warmth is expected if these projections hold true. I could > see widespread 70s and 80s all the way north to the Great Lakes and > possibly even to New England. > > This would certainly mean a major early migratory push with many species > arriving very early relative to median arrival dates. The first > major influx of neo-tropical migrants would be seen into the southern > and even central U.S. > > check out the following website for 925 mb(few thousand feet AGL) > wind projections for late next week.... > > http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_925_wnd.gif > > or a loop. > > http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_925_wnd&loop=1 > > Dave Nicosia > Johnson City, NY > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- NFC-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/nfc-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
