Oh! You beat me to it! You can get the radiosonde data here: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/
just click on the station nearest you. Note that they are taken at 1200 and 0000 UTC (8:00am and 8:00pm EST), so if things are changing rapidly between those times, you might have some discrepancy. Once you click on the station, you'll want to read the winds at ~900mb (3000 - 40000 feet elevation). You can also look at the winds at 1000mb which is about surface. You can get the surface maps here: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/ as well. TONIGHT IS THE NIGHT! The radar is really pumping right now... I imagine we should hear some birds tonight! Good Listening David ________________________ David A. La Puma, Ph.D. Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory birds New Jersey Audubon Society 600 Route 47 North Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 Office: 609.861.1608 x33 Fax: 609.861.1651 Websites: http://www.woodcreeper.com http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com Photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper On Thu, Apr 1, 2010 at 9:08 PM, Andrew Albright <andrew.albri...@gmail.com>wrote: > So for the Northeast or at least Mid-Atlantic, I guess this is it > (finally)...tonights the night? I plan on recording the next 3 > nights. > > One question - is there a user friendly website showing wind speeds at > the altitudes at which birds migrate? Either that or is there an > explanation for the weather vane thingees on the maps that David > posted? > > On Sun, Mar 28, 2010 at 9:04 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > wrote: > > David, > > > > It is a transient pattern but anomalously warm. Attached is a 20 model > > ensemble mean forecast > > of air temperature projection for next Saturday at 925 mb (1-2 thousand > feet > > AGL). > > It shows temperatures reaching 16C (60F) which translates to 70s and > lower > > 80s on the surface. > > This is between 2 and 3 standard deviations above climatology for this > time > > of year. > > Record high temperatures are possible in upstate NY and parts of the > > northeast and > > New England. I expect it to last from Thursday to Saturday, possibly into > > Sunday. The Gulf > > will have prolonged southerly winds beginning Wednesday and lasting into > > the weekend at > > 925 mb according to our multimodel ensemble runs. See attached image > from > > the height of > > this flow. > > > > It will be interested to check bird list servers across the southern > states > > into > > the middle Atlantic to see what kind of species begin arriving later this > > week. Normally I stick to > > forecasting the weather but it is fun to attempt to predict bird species > > migration > > based on their migratory timetables and weather patterns. > > > > Anyway, it should become very interesting for those who monitor night > calls. > > > > Good birding to all! > > > > Dave Nicosia > > Johnson City, NY > > ________________________________ > > From: David La Puma <woodcree...@gmail.com> > > To: david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > > Sent: Sun, March 28, 2010 8:07:24 PM > > Subject: Re: [nfc-l] Big Migratory Push Next Week Eastern U.S?? > > > > David > > > > Cool stuff! So could you elaborate on the uniqueness of this weather > pattern > > for this time of year? I think any consistent favorable migration > conditions > > could influence the movement of certain species, but not all of them. > > Neotropical migrants (or long-distance migrants) are more likely > > evolutionarily hard-wired to leave around fixed dates, because of the > > uncertainty associated with early departure regardless of meteorological > > opportunity. Short-distance migrants, on the other hand, may just jump on > > the train if given the opportunity. It's possible, though, that the point > is > > moot, as we are getting to the time when Neotrops make the leap more and > > more frequently. I'd be interested (as I already mentioned) in whether > this > > pattern is truly unique, or falls within the regular range of variation. > > Either way, it's great to have a meteorologist thinking about these > things > > as well! > > > > Hope to see more of you on the list. > > > > Cheers, > > > > David > > ________________________ > > > > David A. La Puma, Ph.D. > > Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory > > birds > > New Jersey Audubon Society > > 600 Route 47 North > > Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 > > Office: 609.861.1608 x33 > > Fax: 609.861.1651 > > > > Websites: > > http://www.woodcreeper.com > > http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com > > > > Photos: > > http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper > > > > > > > > > > > > > > On Fri, Mar 26, 2010 at 5:43 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> > wrote: > >> > >> All, > >> > >> Being a meteorologist, I can't help myself here, but > >> the potential exists for an early "heat" wave in the eastern 1/2 of > >> U.S beginning Wednesday and lasting into next weekend(April 3-4). > >> > >> A very large and anomalous high pressure system is projected > >> to set up off the southeast U.S coast by Wednesday/Thursday next week > >> and bring strong southerly winds across the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest > >> Wednesday/Thursday and to the northeast/Middle Atlantic Friday > >> to Saturday. This is a classic "Bermuda" High pressure set-up. > >> > >> Very unusual warmth is expected if these projections hold true. I could > >> see widespread 70s and 80s all the way north to the Great Lakes and > >> possibly even to New England. > >> > >> This would certainly mean a major early migratory push with many species > >> arriving very early relative to median arrival dates. The first > >> major influx of neo-tropical migrants would be seen into the southern > >> and even central U.S. > >> > >> check out the following website for 925 mb(few thousand feet AGL) > >> wind projections for late next week.... > >> > >> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_925_wnd.gif > >> > >> or a loop. > >> > >> > >> > http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_925_wnd&loop=1 > >> > >> Dave Nicosia > >> Johnson City, NY > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > > > > > > > > > > -- > > NFC-L List Info: > http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME > http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES > > ARCHIVES: > 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/nfc-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html > 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html > 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L > > Please submit your observations to eBird: > http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ > > -- > > -- NFC-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/nfc-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
