The radar lit up last night, all the way from Corpus Christi, TX up to Minneapolis, MN (*http://tinyurl.com/y8kfseh)*. Was anyone out listening? Seeing that map also got me wondering, where IS everyone on this list? (I mean, where are you, geographically).
I've created a Google Map where you can enter your location, if you wish. I figured this would be a good way for all of us to know what areas are covered, need coverage, and/or a way for us to meet up and coordinate some night listening. This is a public map, so I wouldn't put too much info. I put my name in the town where I live, but left out any specific address, or any equipment notes. It might be interesting to put whether you have a fixed listening station and if it will be running throughout the season, but I leave that up to you to decide. We can also make it private, and invite the entire group, in which case we might feel more comfortable sharing more specifics. Again, I leave this up to the group to decide. Here's the map link: I've shared a map with you called NFC-L Participants: http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid= 114178876640194201766.00048304aef30c862820d Looking forward to seeing the map fill out! Cheers, David ________________________ David A. La Puma, Ph.D. Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory birds New Jersey Audubon Society 600 Route 47 North Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 Office: 609.861.1608 x33 Fax: 609.861.1651 Websites: http://www.woodcreeper.com http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com Photos: http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper On Mon, Mar 29, 2010 at 1:30 PM, Andrew Farnsworth < andrew.farnswo...@gmail.com> wrote: > Hi all, > Great post - I, too, am eager to see what happens with the development of > this system. Following David N and David LP thoughts, with such strong > southerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico later this week, I'd expect a nice > pulse of early spring migrants into the Gulf states and beyond; with winds > at 925 mb at the speeds currently forecast, it appears that trans-Gulf > flights would head far inland assuming no adverse conditions after crossing > the Gulf coast upon arrival in the US. So, too, for migrants the central > and eastern US, I'd expect a pulse of late winterers, facultative migrants, > and early spring arrivals to take flight (I agree with David LP in comments > farther below in what he suggests about obligate nocturnal migrants that are > farther afield in points south - however, I'd think a good chance for early > Neotrop. stragglers of the longer distance type in Texas given the strength > and magnitude of the flow predicted - attention to TXBIRDS and FLBIRDS > should indicate that if we see/hear it!). > > As Dave N. suggested, a little later this week would be a great time to > deploy your microphones. . .central/eastern Plains states Monday/Tuesday and > Tuesday/Wednesday night, the Appalachians and coastal plain thereafter. > Even though winds aloft don't look particularly wonderful in the Northeast > until late in the weekend, I suspect that we'll see a flight after this > moisture-laden system clears out. . . > > Also of interest will be the outcome of the strong southerly flow and > tremendous moisture moving up the Atlantic coast now in terms of early > southern spring overshoots. Not likely to be particularly good conditions > for deploying microphones, of course, but I'll be interested to see what and > if anything appears in the Northeast and maritimes with favorable conditions > for departure from the Greater Antilles/Caribbean and rather unfavorable > conditions for arrival along the eastern seaboard. > > Best, > Andrew > > > On Sun, Mar 28, 2010 at 9:04 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com>wrote: > >> David, >> >> It is a transient pattern but anomalously warm. Attached is a 20 model >> ensemble mean forecast >> of air temperature projection for next Saturday at 925 mb (1-2 thousand >> feet AGL). >> It shows temperatures reaching 16C (60F) which translates to 70s and lower >> 80s on the surface. >> This is between *2 and 3 standard deviations above climatology* for this >> time of year. >> Record high temperatures are possible in upstate NY and parts of the >> northeast and >> New England. I expect it to last from Thursday to Saturday, possibly into >> Sunday. The Gulf >> will have prolonged southerly winds beginning Wednesday and lasting into >> the weekend at >> 925 mb according to our multimodel ensemble runs. See attached image from >> the height of >> this flow. >> >> It will be interested to check bird list servers across the southern >> states into >> the middle Atlantic to see what kind of species begin arriving later this >> week. Normally I stick to >> forecasting the weather but it is fun to attempt to predict bird species >> migration >> based on their migratory timetables and weather patterns. >> >> Anyway, it should become very interesting for those who monitor night >> calls. >> >> Good birding to all! >> >> Dave Nicosia >> Johnson City, NY >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From:* David La Puma <woodcree...@gmail.com> >> *To:* david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com> >> *Sent:* Sun, March 28, 2010 8:07:24 PM >> *Subject:* Re: [nfc-l] Big Migratory Push Next Week Eastern U.S?? >> >> David >> >> Cool stuff! So could you elaborate on the uniqueness of this weather >> pattern for this time of year? I think any consistent favorable migration >> conditions could influence the movement of certain species, but not all of >> them. Neotropical migrants (or long-distance migrants) are more likely >> evolutionarily hard-wired to leave around fixed dates, because of the >> uncertainty associated with early departure regardless of meteorological >> opportunity. Short-distance migrants, on the other hand, may just jump on >> the train if given the opportunity. It's possible, though, that the point is >> moot, as we are getting to the time when Neotrops make the leap more and >> more frequently. I'd be interested (as I already mentioned) in whether this >> pattern is truly unique, or falls within the regular range of variation. >> Either way, it's great to have a meteorologist thinking about these things >> as well! >> >> Hope to see more of you on the list. >> >> Cheers, >> >> David >> ________________________ >> >> David A. La Puma, Ph.D. >> Postdoctoral Associate – Ecology, behavior and conservation of migratory >> birds >> New Jersey Audubon Society >> 600 Route 47 North >> Cape May Court House, NJ 08210 >> Office: 609.861.1608 x33 >> Fax: 609.861.1651 >> >> Websites: >> http://www.woodcreeper.com >> http://badbirdz2.wordpress.com >> >> Photos: >> http://www.flickr.com/photos/woodcreeper >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Fri, Mar 26, 2010 at 5:43 PM, david nicosia <daven1...@yahoo.com>wrote: >> >>> All, >>> >>> Being a meteorologist, I can't help myself here, but >>> the potential exists for an early "heat" wave in the eastern 1/2 of >>> U.S beginning Wednesday and lasting into next weekend(April 3-4). >>> >>> A very large and anomalous high pressure system is projected >>> to set up off the southeast U.S coast by Wednesday/Thursday next week >>> and bring strong southerly winds across the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest >>> Wednesday/Thursday and to the northeast/Middle Atlantic Friday >>> to Saturday. This is a classic "Bermuda" High pressure set-up. >>> >>> Very unusual warmth is expected if these projections hold true. I could >>> see widespread 70s and 80s all the way north to the Great Lakes and >>> possibly even to New England. >>> >>> This would certainly mean a major early migratory push with many species >>> arriving very early relative to median arrival dates. The first >>> major influx of neo-tropical migrants would be seen into the southern >>> and even central U.S. >>> >>> check out the following website for 925 mb(few thousand feet AGL) >>> wind projections for late next week.... >>> >>> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs180hr_925_wnd.gif >>> >>> or a loop. >>> >>> >>> http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_925_wnd&loop=1 >>> >>> Dave Nicosia >>> Johnson City, NY >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> > -- NFC-L List Info: http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_WELCOME http://www.NortheastBirding.com/NFC_RULES ARCHIVES: 1) http://www.mail-archive.com/nfc-l@cornell.edu/maillist.html 2) http://birdingonthe.net/mailinglists/NFCL.html 3) http://www.surfbirds.com/birdingmail/Group/NFC-L Please submit your observations to eBird: http://ebird.org/content/ebird/ --
