http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/probability-rossi-is-real-is-now-28/
On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 1:44 PM, John Berry <berry.joh...@gmail.com> wrote: > Well I worded that strongly to drive home a point, we often hide our > ignorance in the talk of probability. > > There are 4 domains in which we apply probability. > > 1: Things which are set and we are ignorant of, no actual element of > chance exist, such as with Rossi. > > 2: Macro chance, things that we fail to predict but maybe could if we did > sufficiently in-depth analysis, this could be likened to the spinning of a > wheel of wheel of fortune > > 3: While a machine could be used to spin a wheel and get the desired > selection to come up on a wheel, some things seem beyond our ability to > predict. The experiment with falling BB's hitting pegs and being seemingly > effected by the intent of the observer in university studies backs up that > this is maybe beyond modeling within known physics/ Rolling a dice is > similar, but we do know dice can be loaded showing that even on this level > small physical changes can reduce the randomness. > > 4: Quantum physics where it is believed God does actually pay dice. > But this is in ignorance of the state of the aether behind such > interactions. > It could be that these things are not random at all. > > But even IF you believe that probability really exist, that does not apply > to Rossi. > > And if you were to hide ignorance in the language of probability despite > the obvious lack of 'chance', there is the fact that if you were at 1% > confidence and then saw one tiny single sign, you could have to go to 100%. > > Such as an event that can only be explained by Rossi being genuine. > > Granted this is difficult with magicians (illusionists) and con men, but > there has very likely been such a sign that either moves him to 100% or > damn near 0%. > Not that there is anything that could prove him false so easily including > proof he faked a test as there might be genuine motives to fake a test > despite being genuinely in possession of the real thing, it really is > harder/impossible to prove a negative. > > > > > > On Tue, Jun 10, 2014 at 12:36 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < > blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> "1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they >> don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >> There is no such thing as probability in reality." >> >> I see.. >> >> >> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 5:12 PM, John Berry <berry.joh...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked >>> out that his ramblings about probability have meaning. >>> >>> Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts remain >>> that make it worthless. >>> >>> 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they >>> don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>> There is no such thing as probability in reality. >>> >>> 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? >>> Answer 1: 40% >>> Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real possibility >>> of it going either way. >>> If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real >>> risk that you must take seriously. >>> If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an extraordinary >>> possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might not pan out. >>> >>> But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is huge! >>> With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very well >>> pan out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore >>> something potentially significant good or bad. >>> >>> But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot worthy >>> of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low level >>> 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. >>> >>> John >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >>>> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >>>> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price >>>> for CYPW Cyclone Power. >>>> >>>> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >>>> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >>>> >>>> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather than >>>> the OBVIOUS thing it is: >>>> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly the >>>> way Rossi used to post >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >>>> >>>> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to realize >>>> he's engaging in a classic >>>> fallacy of arguing from silence. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>>>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>>>> >>>>> Rossi is now at 30% >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is >>>>>> worthwhile. The world would sit up and take notice simply because Rossi >>>>>> ain't a fraud, as the common notion suggests. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the world >>>>>>> competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat which is just >>>>>>> enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting it causes >>>>>>> the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a TIP >>>>>>>> report that shows something interesting, but nowhere guaranteeing the >>>>>>>> power >>>>>>>> densities shown in the first report. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent behavior >>>>>>>> going >>>>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. And >>>>>>>> possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive new >>>>>>>> source of >>>>>>>> chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket Fuel in the best >>>>>>>> case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with optimal >>>>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to its >>>>>>>> promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock offering. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but why >>>>>>>>> didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? Why is >>>>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>>>> doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist made >>>>>>>>> in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. It is >>>>>>>>> not an >>>>>>>>> easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of Nuclear >>>>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>>>> application >>>>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me for >>>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps >>>>>>>>> Magnus just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be to >>>>>>>>> contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly can. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be coming >>>>>>>>> over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% on the >>>>>>>>> basis of >>>>>>>>> this report. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP which >>>>>>>>> is competitive only with geothermal and could be the result of >>>>>>>>> uninteresting fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of 10% >>>>>>>>> or so) >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report will >>>>>>>>> reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a drop in >>>>>>>>> 25%. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of the >>>>>>>>>> Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say it, >>>>>>>>>> but It >>>>>>>>>> almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from Nanor >>>>>>>>>>> but up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / MIT >>>>>>>>>>>> videos. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from Yale >>>>>>>>>>>>> Law School* and a BA from the University of North Carolina at >>>>>>>>>>>>> Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather Tom >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn (senior >>>>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of Cherokee >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PR release. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, but >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the investing >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo Corporation >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (increased 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Could be updating this probability more frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
