So now Blaze won't even post on his own thread, instead posting to his own blog about "rumors" <http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/06/20/e-cat-report-watch-thread/> of delay around the next ITP report...
Rumors? The damned report was due in April. That ain't no rumor. It is delayed. I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to 7.44%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price for CYPW Cyclone Power. Then Blaze goes on to say that "there may be some ambiguity in the results that the researchers are having trouble digesting and so are delaying the report until they figure them out. We estimate this at about 60% chance." And how is that supposed to have any bearing whatsoever on whether Rossi is "real"? If Rossi weren't "real", there'd be NO ambiguity in the results and he'd be a pile of stones right now. I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to 7.39% Then blaze gives a 40% chance that they believe "they have seen spectacular results and they need to get their ducks in a row because it’s going to attract a lot of attention and their reputations are all on the line." So, on the basis of 40% chance of SPECTACULAR results contrasted with 60% chance of AMBIGUOUS results, he DOWNGRADES Rossi? That is a 100% chance that Rossi has generated a real effect. AMBIGUOUS results mean that Rossi is "Real". Otherwise those guys would have published quickly and decisively in APRIL, when the report was due. I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to 7.33%. Then blaze talks about Rossi talking about his 1MW plant. "He seems to be diverting attention away from the reports"... Uh, blaze: What reports are those? The ones that aren't even out yet? How can he divert attention away from something that hasn't even been published yet. It's OBVIOUS he's trying to fill the dead air time. I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to 7.29%. Then Blaze injects a supposition: "which may because he’s concerned those results aren’t favorable." Wow, dude. Like. Yer some kinda genius er sumthin. Rossi said PLAINLY on his website that he has anxiety over the upcoming results. They could be positive, could be negative. So, blaze is saying that his one supposition is supported by his other supposition so he's downgrading Rossi. What a dipwad. Then blaze blows himself out of the water: "If we see confirmation of this delay to September (say nothing by mid July), we will likely reduce the probability to 25% that Rossi is Real." How incredibly stupid. Delay is due to the fact that they found something and "need to get their ducks in a row". If they found NOTHING, their report would have come out in April. Blaze, pull your head out. I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to 7.15%. And what would blaze be, if not wishy-washy? Here he tries to equivocate: "If a report comes out before that date, be warned – you could potentially see a massive swing upwards to 50% or even 60% that Rossi is Real. " All I can say is: Wow, blaze yer like, so friggin brilliant... NOT. Where do you come up with this crap? And then blaze ends with POTO, saying the "report has the potential of being a very significant inflection point in this Andrea Rossi / E-Catelyzer Saga." For those not in the know, POTO is Pointing Out The Obvious. So I'm constrained, finally, to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to 7.09%. Those are not good odds. On Tue, Jun 24, 2014 at 10:06 AM, Blaze Spinnaker <[email protected]> wrote: > > http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/probability-rossi-is-real-is-now-28/ > > > > > > On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 1:44 PM, John Berry <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Well I worded that strongly to drive home a point, we often hide our >> ignorance in the talk of probability. >> >> There are 4 domains in which we apply probability. >> >> 1: Things which are set and we are ignorant of, no actual element of >> chance exist, such as with Rossi. >> >> 2: Macro chance, things that we fail to predict but maybe could if we did >> sufficiently in-depth analysis, this could be likened to the spinning of a >> wheel of wheel of fortune >> >> 3: While a machine could be used to spin a wheel and get the desired >> selection to come up on a wheel, some things seem beyond our ability to >> predict. The experiment with falling BB's hitting pegs and being seemingly >> effected by the intent of the observer in university studies backs up that >> this is maybe beyond modeling within known physics/ Rolling a dice is >> similar, but we do know dice can be loaded showing that even on this level >> small physical changes can reduce the randomness. >> >> 4: Quantum physics where it is believed God does actually pay dice. >> But this is in ignorance of the state of the aether behind such >> interactions. >> It could be that these things are not random at all. >> >> But even IF you believe that probability really exist, that does not >> apply to Rossi. >> >> And if you were to hide ignorance in the language of probability despite >> the obvious lack of 'chance', there is the fact that if you were at 1% >> confidence and then saw one tiny single sign, you could have to go to 100%. >> >> Such as an event that can only be explained by Rossi being genuine. >> >> Granted this is difficult with magicians (illusionists) and con men, but >> there has very likely been such a sign that either moves him to 100% or >> damn near 0%. >> Not that there is anything that could prove him false so easily including >> proof he faked a test as there might be genuine motives to fake a test >> despite being genuinely in possession of the real thing, it really is >> harder/impossible to prove a negative. >> >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 10, 2014 at 12:36 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> "1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or >>> they don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>> There is no such thing as probability in reality." >>> >>> I see.. >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 5:12 PM, John Berry <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked >>>> out that his ramblings about probability have meaning. >>>> >>>> Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts >>>> remain that make it worthless. >>>> >>>> 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they >>>> don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>>> There is no such thing as probability in reality. >>>> >>>> 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? >>>> Answer 1: 40% >>>> Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real >>>> possibility of it going either way. >>>> If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real >>>> risk that you must take seriously. >>>> If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an extraordinary >>>> possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might not pan out. >>>> >>>> But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is huge! >>>> With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very well >>>> pan out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore >>>> something potentially significant good or bad. >>>> >>>> But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot >>>> worthy of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low >>>> level 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. >>>> >>>> John >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >>>>> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >>>>> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price >>>>> for CYPW Cyclone Power. >>>>> >>>>> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >>>>> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >>>>> >>>>> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather than >>>>> the OBVIOUS thing it is: >>>>> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly the >>>>> way Rossi used to post >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >>>>> >>>>> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to realize >>>>> he's engaging in a classic >>>>> fallacy of arguing from silence. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>>>>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>>>>> >>>>>> Rossi is now at 30% >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is >>>>>>> worthwhile. The world would sit up and take notice simply because Rossi >>>>>>> ain't a fraud, as the common notion suggests. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the >>>>>>>> world competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat which >>>>>>>> is >>>>>>>> just enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting it >>>>>>>> causes the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a TIP >>>>>>>>> report that shows something interesting, but nowhere guaranteeing the >>>>>>>>> power >>>>>>>>> densities shown in the first report. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent behavior >>>>>>>>> going >>>>>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. And >>>>>>>>> possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive new >>>>>>>>> source of >>>>>>>>> chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket Fuel in the >>>>>>>>> best >>>>>>>>> case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with optimal >>>>>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to its >>>>>>>>> promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock offering. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but why >>>>>>>>>> didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? Why is >>>>>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>>>>> doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist >>>>>>>>>> made in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. It >>>>>>>>>> is not >>>>>>>>>> an easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of >>>>>>>>>> Nuclear >>>>>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>>>>> application >>>>>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me for >>>>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps >>>>>>>>>> Magnus just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be to >>>>>>>>>> contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly can. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be >>>>>>>>>> coming over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% >>>>>>>>>> on the >>>>>>>>>> basis of this report. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP which >>>>>>>>>> is competitive only with geothermal and could be the result of >>>>>>>>>> uninteresting fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of >>>>>>>>>> 10% or so) >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report will >>>>>>>>>> reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a drop in >>>>>>>>>> 25%. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of >>>>>>>>>>> the Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say >>>>>>>>>>> it, but >>>>>>>>>>> It almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from Nanor >>>>>>>>>>>> but up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / MIT >>>>>>>>>>>>> videos. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from Yale >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Law School* and a BA from the University of North Carolina >>>>>>>>>>>>>> at Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tom Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (senior >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of Cherokee >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PR release. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, but >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the investing >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo Corporation >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (increased 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Could be updating this probability more frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
