http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/06/29/probability-is-now-27/
On Tue, Jun 24, 2014 at 10:06 AM, Blaze Spinnaker <[email protected]> wrote: > > http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/probability-rossi-is-real-is-now-28/ > > > > > > On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 1:44 PM, John Berry <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Well I worded that strongly to drive home a point, we often hide our >> ignorance in the talk of probability. >> >> There are 4 domains in which we apply probability. >> >> 1: Things which are set and we are ignorant of, no actual element of >> chance exist, such as with Rossi. >> >> 2: Macro chance, things that we fail to predict but maybe could if we did >> sufficiently in-depth analysis, this could be likened to the spinning of a >> wheel of wheel of fortune >> >> 3: While a machine could be used to spin a wheel and get the desired >> selection to come up on a wheel, some things seem beyond our ability to >> predict. The experiment with falling BB's hitting pegs and being seemingly >> effected by the intent of the observer in university studies backs up that >> this is maybe beyond modeling within known physics/ Rolling a dice is >> similar, but we do know dice can be loaded showing that even on this level >> small physical changes can reduce the randomness. >> >> 4: Quantum physics where it is believed God does actually pay dice. >> But this is in ignorance of the state of the aether behind such >> interactions. >> It could be that these things are not random at all. >> >> But even IF you believe that probability really exist, that does not >> apply to Rossi. >> >> And if you were to hide ignorance in the language of probability despite >> the obvious lack of 'chance', there is the fact that if you were at 1% >> confidence and then saw one tiny single sign, you could have to go to 100%. >> >> Such as an event that can only be explained by Rossi being genuine. >> >> Granted this is difficult with magicians (illusionists) and con men, but >> there has very likely been such a sign that either moves him to 100% or >> damn near 0%. >> Not that there is anything that could prove him false so easily including >> proof he faked a test as there might be genuine motives to fake a test >> despite being genuinely in possession of the real thing, it really is >> harder/impossible to prove a negative. >> >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Jun 10, 2014 at 12:36 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> "1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or >>> they don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>> There is no such thing as probability in reality." >>> >>> I see.. >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 5:12 PM, John Berry <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked >>>> out that his ramblings about probability have meaning. >>>> >>>> Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts >>>> remain that make it worthless. >>>> >>>> 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they >>>> don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >>>> There is no such thing as probability in reality. >>>> >>>> 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? >>>> Answer 1: 40% >>>> Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real >>>> possibility of it going either way. >>>> If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real >>>> risk that you must take seriously. >>>> If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an extraordinary >>>> possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might not pan out. >>>> >>>> But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is huge! >>>> With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very well >>>> pan out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore >>>> something potentially significant good or bad. >>>> >>>> But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot >>>> worthy of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low >>>> level 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. >>>> >>>> John >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >>>>> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >>>>> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price >>>>> for CYPW Cyclone Power. >>>>> >>>>> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >>>>> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >>>>> >>>>> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather than >>>>> the OBVIOUS thing it is: >>>>> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly the >>>>> way Rossi used to post >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >>>>> >>>>> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to realize >>>>> he's engaging in a classic >>>>> fallacy of arguing from silence. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>>>>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>>>>> >>>>>> Rossi is now at 30% >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is >>>>>>> worthwhile. The world would sit up and take notice simply because Rossi >>>>>>> ain't a fraud, as the common notion suggests. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the >>>>>>>> world competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat which >>>>>>>> is >>>>>>>> just enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting it >>>>>>>> causes the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a TIP >>>>>>>>> report that shows something interesting, but nowhere guaranteeing the >>>>>>>>> power >>>>>>>>> densities shown in the first report. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent behavior >>>>>>>>> going >>>>>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. And >>>>>>>>> possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive new >>>>>>>>> source of >>>>>>>>> chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket Fuel in the >>>>>>>>> best >>>>>>>>> case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with optimal >>>>>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to its >>>>>>>>> promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock offering. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but why >>>>>>>>>> didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? Why is >>>>>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>>>>> doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist >>>>>>>>>> made in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. It >>>>>>>>>> is not >>>>>>>>>> an easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of >>>>>>>>>> Nuclear >>>>>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>>>>> application >>>>>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me for >>>>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps >>>>>>>>>> Magnus just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be to >>>>>>>>>> contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly can. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be >>>>>>>>>> coming over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% >>>>>>>>>> on the >>>>>>>>>> basis of this report. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP which >>>>>>>>>> is competitive only with geothermal and could be the result of >>>>>>>>>> uninteresting fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of >>>>>>>>>> 10% or so) >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report will >>>>>>>>>> reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a drop in >>>>>>>>>> 25%. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of >>>>>>>>>>> the Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say >>>>>>>>>>> it, but >>>>>>>>>>> It almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from Nanor >>>>>>>>>>>> but up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / MIT >>>>>>>>>>>>> videos. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from Yale >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Law School* and a BA from the University of North Carolina >>>>>>>>>>>>>> at Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Tom Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (senior >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of Cherokee >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> PR release. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, but >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the investing >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo Corporation >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (increased 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Could be updating this probability more frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
