Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[cody dooderson]

Some would argue that the rail network has not only been neglected but
sabotaged in favor of automobiles. For instance, the Los Angeles trolly
system was bought by car companies and basically dismantled.


The system was sold in 1944 by Huntington's estate to American City Lines,
> Inc., of Chicago, a subsidiary of National City Lines
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_City_Lines>, a holding company
> that was purchasing transit systems across the country.[22]
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway#cite_note-22> The sale
> was announced December 5, 1944, but the purchase price was not disclosed.
> [23] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway#cite_note-23> National
> City Lines, along with its investors that included Firestone Tire
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firestone_Tire>, Standard Oil of California
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Oil_of_California> (now Chevron
> Corporation) and General Motors
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Corporation>, were later
> convicted of conspiring to monopolize the sale of buses and related
> products to local transit companies controlled by National City Lines and
> other companies[n 1]
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway#cite_note-para33_group=-24>
>  in
> what became known as the General Motors streetcar conspiracy
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy>.
> National City Lines purchased Key System
> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_System>, which operated the streetcar
> system in Oakland, California, the following year.

-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_Railway

_ Cody Smith _
c...@simtable.com


On Tue, Jan 30, 2024 at 2:54 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> Yes, a good high speed railway network would be able to reduce air
> traffic. France for instance has banned short-haul domestic flights in
> favor of train travel
>
> https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/12/02/is-france-banning-private-jets-everything-we-know-from-a-week-of-green-transport-proposals
>
> If this railway map is accurate, then the railway network in the US is
> much more sparse than in the EU or in China. Has it been neglected in favor
> of automobiles and airplanes?
> https://flowingdata.com/2024/01/30/world-railway-map/
>
> -J.
>
>
> ---- Original message 
> From: Marcus Daniels 
> Date: 1/30/24 4:34 PM (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate
>
> The U.S. could develop high speed rail to avoid use of aircraft.
> Aircraft could be based on H2.   Because of the low specific gravity of H2,
> that would mean devoting more space to storage of H2.  That would increase
> the price, which itself is a fine way to moderate use of air travel and
> gratuitous transportation.
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of glen
> Sent: Tuesday, January 30, 2024 7:15 AM
> To: friam@redfish.com
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate
>
> Yeah, I'm not so sure that's the right tack. I mean, airlines (and
> airplane mfgs) aren't the most earth friendly enterprises, at their core.
> Even if we could magically swap out a zero emissions fuel (which we can't:
> https://www.wri.org/insights/us-sustainable-aviation-fuel-emissions-impacts),
> we will still see door plugs popping out because we can't be bothered to
> check every little nook and cranny just to save a few measly human lives.
> (Why do we freak out so much when an airplane goes down? So many more
> people die horribly in other circumstances.)
>
> This entitled fetish we have for synchronous meatspace interactions makes
> for a more efficient target. Powering your internet bandwidth with more
> sustainable electricity is way more likely to reduce emissions than biofuel
> ever will.
>
>
> On 1/29/24 19:20, Leigh Fanning wrote:
> > At some point we'll have SAF at scale.
> >
> > https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels
> >
>
> --
> ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ
>
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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Marcus Daniels]

The U.S. could develop high speed rail to avoid use of aircraft.   Aircraft 
could be based on H2.   Because of the low specific gravity of H2, that would 
mean devoting more space to storage of H2.  That would increase the price, 
which itself is a fine way to moderate use of air travel and gratuitous 
transportation. 

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Tuesday, January 30, 2024 7:15 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

Yeah, I'm not so sure that's the right tack. I mean, airlines (and airplane 
mfgs) aren't the most earth friendly enterprises, at their core. Even if we 
could magically swap out a zero emissions fuel (which we can't: 
https://www.wri.org/insights/us-sustainable-aviation-fuel-emissions-impacts), 
we will still see door plugs popping out because we can't be bothered to check 
every little nook and cranny just to save a few measly human lives. (Why do we 
freak out so much when an airplane goes down? So many more people die horribly 
in other circumstances.)

This entitled fetish we have for synchronous meatspace interactions makes for a 
more efficient target. Powering your internet bandwidth with more sustainable 
electricity is way more likely to reduce emissions than biofuel ever will.


On 1/29/24 19:20, Leigh Fanning wrote:
> At some point we'll have SAF at scale.
> 
> https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels
> 

-- 
ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ

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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[glen]

Yeah, I'm not so sure that's the right tack. I mean, airlines (and airplane 
mfgs) aren't the most earth friendly enterprises, at their core. Even if we 
could magically swap out a zero emissions fuel (which we can't: 
https://www.wri.org/insights/us-sustainable-aviation-fuel-emissions-impacts), 
we will still see door plugs popping out because we can't be bothered to check 
every little nook and cranny just to save a few measly human lives. (Why do we 
freak out so much when an airplane goes down? So many more people die horribly 
in other circumstances.)

This entitled fetish we have for synchronous meatspace interactions makes for a 
more efficient target. Powering your internet bandwidth with more sustainable 
electricity is way more likely to reduce emissions than biofuel ever will.


On 1/29/24 19:20, Leigh Fanning wrote:

At some point we'll have SAF at scale.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels



--
ꙮ Mɥǝu ǝlǝdɥɐuʇs ɟᴉƃɥʇ' ʇɥǝ ƃɹɐss snɟɟǝɹs˙ ꙮ

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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Merle Lefkoff]

Sorry, Jochen, just about everything you recommend will make things worse.
I also wrote about the failure of the climate models almost ten years ago.
You nailed one of the biggest problems, though: even really smart guys
don't know shit about global warming.


On Sat, Jan 27, 2024 at 3:11 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> I am not a big fan of Sabine. Her book "Lost in math" is too pessimistic
> and too negative for me. She earns money from her YouTube video channel.
> The more sensational the content, the more clicks. That being said I agree
> that climate change is one of the biggest problems, and the outlook is not
> good.
>
> If we don't act now temperatures will rise inevitably, and there is a real
> possibility our economies will collapse. But if we prohibit all fossil
> fuels now our economies will collapse too, because they depend on it.
> Airplanes, ships, trucks, cars, heatings in our homes, plastic products,...
> everything is based on fossil fuels.
>
> What our leaders do is take they planes and private jets to fly to climate
> conferences and economic forums where they agree on lofty goals but when
> they return it is business as usual.
>
> What we can do is voting for better politics - besides getting an emission
> free car, using electric trains and public transport, switching to
> sustainable energy, using less plastic, etc. Eventually it will also mean
> less travelling by plane and cruise ships. This means no longer vacation in
> exotic places - but imagine how much better the air in our cities would be
> if the majority of cars are emission free.
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Russ Abbott 
> Date: 1/27/24 10:01 PM (GMT+01:00)
> To: ICE - debora shuger , Rob Watson <
> rnwat...@humnet.ucla.edu>, Richard Abbott ,
> "Michael, Maria, and Luna Abbott-Whitley/Penado" ,
> Danielle Abbott-Whitley , "Whitley, Julian" <
> jln.whit...@gmail.com>, Dale Shuger , The Friday
> Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate
>
> I apologize for this relatively mass email. It was prompted by a video
>  by Sabine
> Hossenfelder,  Sabine is a theoretical physicist who has spent much of her
> recent life as a popular science writer and video maker. See her Wikipedia
> page .
>
> The video linked to above talks about climate models. The bottom line is
> that it appears that most of the current models have underestimated how
> quickly earth will warm. The consequences are frightening.
>
> -- Russ Abbott
> Professor Emeritus, Computer Science
> California State University, Los Angeles
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>


-- 
Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.
Center for Emergent Diplomacy
emergentdiplomacy.org
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

mobile:  (303) 859-5609
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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Curt McNamara]

She is correct. The IPCC reports are also very conservative.

An informal poll of the IPCC representatives gave 2.5C as the likeliest
final temp rise. That is a huge amount, however probably not enough to
eliminate humanity.

We are turning the corner: carbon emissions have plateaued.

However passing through a tipping point seems still quite likely to me.

Pearce's With Speed and Violence gives a great overview of the science and
what the evidence of past climate transitions looks like.

https://books.google.com/books?id=rimrkFlTHn4C=PT1=kp_read_button=en=1_redir=0=1#v=onepage=false

  Curt

On Sat, Jan 27, 2024, 3:00 PM Russ Abbott  wrote:

> I apologize for this relatively mass email. It was prompted by a video
>  by Sabine
> Hossenfelder,  Sabine is a theoretical physicist who has spent much of her
> recent life as a popular science writer and video maker. See her Wikipedia
> page .
>
> The video linked to above talks about climate models. The bottom line is
> that it appears that most of the current models have underestimated how
> quickly earth will warm. The consequences are frightening.
>
> -- Russ Abbott
> Professor Emeritus, Computer Science
> California State University, Los Angeles
> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
> archives:  5/2017 thru present
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>
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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Michael Orshan]

Hi:

Generating electricity via power plants causes 25% of the GHGs and uses 45%
of the water in the US.  In less populated countries it is closer to
70/80%.  More EV will cause more need for electricity, so removing fossil
fuels from power plants is the key.  Solar and wind are helping.  But the
big issue is what happens when the sun is down or the wind has stopped.
This is solved by long duration energy storage.  That will allow everything
to work smoothly.  Still there are many political and resource
bottlenecks.

Mike

Mike

On Mon, Jan 29, 2024 at 8:21 PM Leigh Fanning  wrote:

> At some point we'll have SAF at scale.
>
> https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels
>
> Leigh
>
> On 29 Jan 2024 at 03:26 PM, glen related
> > I feel like individual actions (like sorting recycling, buying/using
> EVs, etc.) are a tiny drop in the bucket compared to institutional actions.
> For example, the NIH recently held a meeting in Maryland explicitly stating
> a *preference* for in person attendance. This seemed egregious to me. I
> mean, I know they're not a department of ecology or biology ... or climate
> science or whatever. But surely ... shirley they know that institutional
> pressure to fly around the earth is a part of the problem, right? Like, how
> are we supposed to compete for federal funds ... social network wise, when
> all the flesh-pressing rich people fly around pressing the flesh in
> meatspace?
> >
> > Similarly, ALife is in Copenhagen. Very cool. I've always wanted to go
> there. Luckily, IACAP (RussA mentioned) is in Eugene. I can take the train
> there. Maybe if we change your "life is at stake" to "career is at stake",
> we could make some interim progress. Anyone who flies to a conference is
> immediately spray-painted with a scarlet letter. But, really. It's not
> about us. It's about Amazon, Microsoft, P, Maybelline <
> https://www.beatthemicrobead.org/11-makeup-brands-exposed-with-the-use-of-microplastics/>,
> Dupont, etc. ... and maybe even the NIH. We should make it about their
> "corporate life is at stake" and execute the bad actors.
> >
> > Speaking of the death penalty for corporations:
> >
> https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/01/29/taking-away-trump-s-business-empire-would-stand-alone-under-new-york-fraud-law
> >
> > "An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of civil cases under
> the law showed that such a penalty has only been imposed a dozen previous
> times, and Trump’s case stands apart in a significant way: It’s the only
> big business found that was threatened with a shutdown without a showing of
> obvious victims and major losses."
> >
> > Freewill? Agency? Pffft. The real touchstone is "identify the victim".
> >
> > On 1/29/24 14:41, Jochen Fromm wrote:
> > > I saw this article mentioned by Eliot Jacobson on his X/Twitter
> profile which argues that our actions will most likely not be enough until
> there is a big shock which motivates real change. It also uses the Covid
> pandemic to illustrate that people are able to change if they are convinced
> their lives are at stake
> > > https://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/
> > >
> > > It fits to my own observations here in Europe: there are more and more
> EVs and charging stations, but not enough. There are more heat pumps
> replacing gas heatings, but not enough. There is more use of renewable
> energy but not enough. I fear people will only start to change
> fundamentally if they feel their life is at stake. Will it be too late
> then? I don't know. Let's be optimistic. "Keep your face always toward the
> sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you"
> > > https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/03/05/sunshine/
> > >
> > > -J.
> > >
> > >
> > >  Original message 
> > > From: Steve Smith 
> > > Date: 1/28/24 8:16 PM (GMT+01:00)
> > > To: friam@redfish.com
> > > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate
> > >
> > > I love me a good dose of Sabine... her flat-delivery of equally
> serious and glib lines is killer IMO... and for the most part I feel
> compelled to defer to her facts and analyses (almost) without reserve.
> (/around 13:30 she said "so mind-f#%#%ingly stupid" /). I'm surprised she
> didn't actually invoke the biblical "four horsemen"!  Her closing statement
> with the "stop gluing yourself to things" sorta made Sabine the
> anti-Greta?  Both of those made me choke on my coffee .
> > >
> > > The whole North-Atlantic circulation thing (AMOC tipping point)
> threa

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Leigh Fanning]

At some point we'll have SAF at scale.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels

Leigh

On 29 Jan 2024 at 03:26 PM, glen related
> I feel like individual actions (like sorting recycling, buying/using EVs, 
> etc.) are a tiny drop in the bucket compared to institutional actions. For 
> example, the NIH recently held a meeting in Maryland explicitly stating a 
> *preference* for in person attendance. This seemed egregious to me. I mean, I 
> know they're not a department of ecology or biology ... or climate science or 
> whatever. But surely ... shirley they know that institutional pressure to fly 
> around the earth is a part of the problem, right? Like, how are we supposed 
> to compete for federal funds ... social network wise, when all the 
> flesh-pressing rich people fly around pressing the flesh in meatspace?
> 
> Similarly, ALife is in Copenhagen. Very cool. I've always wanted to go there. 
> Luckily, IACAP (RussA mentioned) is in Eugene. I can take the train there. 
> Maybe if we change your "life is at stake" to "career is at stake", we could 
> make some interim progress. Anyone who flies to a conference is immediately 
> spray-painted with a scarlet letter. But, really. It's not about us. It's 
> about Amazon, Microsoft, P, Maybelline 
> <https://www.beatthemicrobead.org/11-makeup-brands-exposed-with-the-use-of-microplastics/>,
>  Dupont, etc. ... and maybe even the NIH. We should make it about their 
> "corporate life is at stake" and execute the bad actors.
> 
> Speaking of the death penalty for corporations:
> https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/01/29/taking-away-trump-s-business-empire-would-stand-alone-under-new-york-fraud-law
> 
> "An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of civil cases under the law 
> showed that such a penalty has only been imposed a dozen previous times, and 
> Trump’s case stands apart in a significant way: It’s the only big business 
> found that was threatened with a shutdown without a showing of obvious 
> victims and major losses."
> 
> Freewill? Agency? Pffft. The real touchstone is "identify the victim".
> 
> On 1/29/24 14:41, Jochen Fromm wrote:
> > I saw this article mentioned by Eliot Jacobson on his X/Twitter profile 
> > which argues that our actions will most likely not be enough until there is 
> > a big shock which motivates real change. It also uses the Covid pandemic to 
> > illustrate that people are able to change if they are convinced their lives 
> > are at stake
> > https://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/
> > 
> > It fits to my own observations here in Europe: there are more and more EVs 
> > and charging stations, but not enough. There are more heat pumps replacing 
> > gas heatings, but not enough. There is more use of renewable energy but not 
> > enough. I fear people will only start to change fundamentally if they feel 
> > their life is at stake. Will it be too late then? I don't know. Let's be 
> > optimistic. "Keep your face always toward the sunshine - and shadows will 
> > fall behind you"
> > https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/03/05/sunshine/
> > 
> > -J.
> > 
> > 
> >  Original message 
> > From: Steve Smith 
> > Date: 1/28/24 8:16 PM (GMT+01:00)
> > To: friam@redfish.com
> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate
> > 
> > I love me a good dose of Sabine... her flat-delivery of equally serious and 
> > glib lines is killer IMO... and for the most part I feel compelled to defer 
> > to her facts and analyses (almost) without reserve. (/around 13:30 she said 
> > "so mind-f#%#%ingly stupid" /). I'm surprised she didn't actually invoke 
> > the biblical "four horsemen"!  Her closing statement with the "stop gluing 
> > yourself to things" sorta made Sabine the anti-Greta?  Both of those made 
> > me choke on my coffee .
> > 
> > The whole North-Atlantic circulation thing (AMOC tipping point) threatening 
> > to undermine the British Isles and Scandinavia's relatively mild winters 
> > (moderated by oceanic heat transport from the equator) is one of the things 
> > I expect to crash a lot of expectations (and economies and ???) around the 
> > industrial north.   New England is also implicated in a major/abrupt local 
> > climate change from this as well.
> > 
> > I did a short stint with a pre-climate (atmospheric-ocean model coupling) 
> > modeling team at LANL in the 90s and what I enjoyed most was the cognitive 
> > dissonance amongst the researchers who on one hand felt they couldn't 
> 

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[glen]

I feel like individual actions (like sorting recycling, buying/using EVs, etc.) 
are a tiny drop in the bucket compared to institutional actions. For example, 
the NIH recently held a meeting in Maryland explicitly stating a *preference* 
for in person attendance. This seemed egregious to me. I mean, I know they're 
not a department of ecology or biology ... or climate science or whatever. But 
surely ... shirley they know that institutional pressure to fly around the 
earth is a part of the problem, right? Like, how are we supposed to compete for 
federal funds ... social network wise, when all the flesh-pressing rich people 
fly around pressing the flesh in meatspace?

Similarly, ALife is in Copenhagen. Very cool. I've always wanted to go there. Luckily, IACAP (RussA mentioned) is in 
Eugene. I can take the train there. Maybe if we change your "life is at stake" to "career is at 
stake", we could make some interim progress. Anyone who flies to a conference is immediately spray-painted with a 
scarlet letter. But, really. It's not about us. It's about Amazon, Microsoft, P, Maybelline 
<https://www.beatthemicrobead.org/11-makeup-brands-exposed-with-the-use-of-microplastics/>, Dupont, etc. ... and 
maybe even the NIH. We should make it about their "corporate life is at stake" and execute the bad actors.

Speaking of the death penalty for corporations:
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2024/01/29/taking-away-trump-s-business-empire-would-stand-alone-under-new-york-fraud-law

"An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of civil cases under the law showed 
that such a penalty has only been imposed a dozen previous times, and Trump’s case stands 
apart in a significant way: It’s the only big business found that was threatened with a 
shutdown without a showing of obvious victims and major losses."

Freewill? Agency? Pffft. The real touchstone is "identify the victim".

On 1/29/24 14:41, Jochen Fromm wrote:

I saw this article mentioned by Eliot Jacobson on his X/Twitter profile which 
argues that our actions will most likely not be enough until there is a big 
shock which motivates real change. It also uses the Covid pandemic to 
illustrate that people are able to change if they are convinced their lives are 
at stake
https://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/

It fits to my own observations here in Europe: there are more and more EVs and charging 
stations, but not enough. There are more heat pumps replacing gas heatings, but not 
enough. There is more use of renewable energy but not enough. I fear people will only 
start to change fundamentally if they feel their life is at stake. Will it be too late 
then? I don't know. Let's be optimistic. "Keep your face always toward the sunshine 
- and shadows will fall behind you"
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/03/05/sunshine/

-J.


 Original message 
From: Steve Smith 
Date: 1/28/24 8:16 PM (GMT+01:00)
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

I love me a good dose of Sabine... her flat-delivery of equally serious and glib lines is killer IMO... and for the 
most part I feel compelled to defer to her facts and analyses (almost) without reserve. (/around 13:30 she said 
"so mind-f#%#%ingly stupid" /). I'm surprised she didn't actually invoke the biblical "four 
horsemen"!  Her closing statement with the "stop gluing yourself to things" sorta made Sabine the 
anti-Greta?  Both of those made me choke on my coffee .

The whole North-Atlantic circulation thing (AMOC tipping point) threatening to 
undermine the British Isles and Scandinavia's relatively mild winters 
(moderated by oceanic heat transport from the equator) is one of the things I 
expect to crash a lot of expectations (and economies and ???) around the 
industrial north.   New England is also implicated in a major/abrupt local 
climate change from this as well.

I did a short stint with a pre-climate (atmospheric-ocean model coupling) modeling team 
at LANL in the 90s and what I enjoyed most was the cognitive dissonance amongst the 
researchers who on one hand felt they couldn't predict *anything* confidently but 
recognized the incredibly high stakes and the emerging awareness of the implications of 
dynamical systems theory on the domain... how many bifurcation points likely surrounded 
the relatively linear "basin" the climate has been wandering in since the 
Younger Dryas.

Without exception, every scientist I worked with then privately declared "we have a 
problem!" even though they didn't feel they had anywhere near the evidence to say 
anything that strongly in their publications.

Anecdotally, I've been experiencing a fairly steady winter-warming at my 
high-desert location 20 miles outside Santa Fe at about 5400ft where I catch 
the cold-air flow off of both the Sangre de Christo and the 

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Jochen Fromm]

I saw this article mentioned by Eliot Jacobson on his X/Twitter profile which 
argues that our actions will most likely not be enough until there is a big 
shock which motivates real change. It also uses the Covid pandemic to 
illustrate that people are able to change if they are convinced their lives are 
at stakehttps://time.com/6565499/apocalyptic-optimism-climate-change/It fits to 
my own observations here in Europe: there are more and more EVs and charging 
stations, but not enough. There are more heat pumps replacing gas heatings, but 
not enough. There is more use of renewable energy but not enough. I fear people 
will only start to change fundamentally if they feel their life is at stake. 
Will it be too late then? I don't know. Let's be optimistic. "Keep your face 
always toward the sunshine - and shadows will fall behind you" 
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2019/03/05/sunshine/-J.
 Original message From: Steve Smith  Date: 
1/28/24  8:16 PM  (GMT+01:00) To: friam@redfish.com Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad 
news about the climate 
I love me a good dose of Sabine... her flat-delivery of equally
  serious and glib lines is killer IMO... and for the most part I
  feel compelled to defer to her facts and analyses (almost) without
  reserve. (around 13:30 she said "so mind-f#%#%ingly stupid" ).  
  I'm surprised she didn't actually invoke the biblical "four
  horsemen"!  Her closing statement with the "stop gluing yourself
  to things" sorta made Sabine the anti-Greta?  Both of those made
  me choke on my coffee .

The whole North-Atlantic circulation thing (AMOC tipping point)
  threatening to undermine the British Isles and Scandinavia's
  relatively mild winters (moderated by oceanic heat transport from
  the equator) is one of the things I expect to crash a lot of
  expectations (and economies and ???) around the industrial
  north.   New England is also implicated in a major/abrupt local
  climate change from this as well.
I did a short stint with a pre-climate (atmospheric-ocean model
  coupling) modeling team at LANL in the 90s and what I enjoyed most
  was the cognitive dissonance amongst the researchers who on one
  hand felt they couldn't predict *anything* confidently but
  recognized the incredibly high stakes and the emerging awareness
  of the implications of dynamical systems theory on the domain...
  how many bifurcation points likely surrounded the relatively
  linear "basin" the climate has been wandering in since the Younger
  Dryas.  
Without exception, every scientist I worked with then privately
  declared "we have a problem!" even though they didn't feel they
  had anywhere near the evidence to say anything that strongly in
  their publications.

Anecdotally, I've been experiencing a fairly steady
  winter-warming at my high-desert location 20 miles outside Santa
  Fe at about 5400ft where I catch the cold-air flow off of both the
  Sangre de Christo and the Jemez mtns.   Winters have gotten drier
  for the most part and while the lows still maintain (see above),
  the highs during the winter (and dead of summer) have risen
  consistently for the last 20 years I've lived at this location.   
The climate and long-range weather forecasts for the area that
  I've checked out are somewhat mutually contradictory and my
  half-full/half-empty biases lead me to smug satisfaction when my
  fruit trees promise to do better than historically, even if my
  tomatoes freeze on Oct 1 no matter what (I've tossed plastic film
  over them and had them keep on growing/ripening until Thanksgiving
  a few years when I've bothered)...  root vegetables can now stay
  in the ground until I dig to eat and winter squash on the vine
  outside longer and longer.  
On the half-empty side, surface water is becoming more and more
  dear here, my AC-free summers are getting more uncomfortable and
  it is likely enough that all of this is a minor perturbation
  compared to what might hit this region in the next few decades as
  various major tipping points tip.

 

  If I were younger, I'd probably be more (personally) worried. 
I tell my 40-something progeny that they should plan on the
possibility that they might live forever and their children are
even more likely to.  Me, I'm just happy that when my
hand-carved wooden chompers get too slimy and splintery to use
that the folks with drills and novacaine can make me a "screw-in
set" like Nicks!   
  Meanwhile the only thing I can think to do is keep lowering my
own personal footprint and readying my home(stead) for another
generation to pick up wherever I leave off with an equally
lowered

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Steve Smith]

On 1/27/24 10:25 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote:


People are rightly livid with the gas and electric utilities here in 
California, but the state is doing better than other states on 
renewables.  More than half the grid is solar during the day.  Large 
installations of batteries are in use and investments in offshore wind 
are expanding.


I'm a fan of localizing and distributing as best we can.   It is 
probably overly optimistic on my part but combinations of home-scale PV 
with storage including EVs (with two-way interconnect)  might really 
help unload the grid and displace grid-growth with grid-upgrade.


I'm not a fan of massive/centralized *anything* even though the "economy 
of scale" arguments tend to have some advantage...


I don't know what is really happening in TX/ERCOT, but my liberal bias 
has me believing that all the squealing going on among TX GOP types 
about how somehow wind/solar is the *reason* for their various 
grid-failures in the last few years...   surely there are some anecdotal 
edge/corner cases where there is a germ of truth... but 


My own electric co-op (Jemez Mtn Coop) started after WWII when the 
soldiers returning tried to repair/renew the small turbine in the creek 
that fed DC to a few dozen households and got carried away.   Now they 
(we) are entirely captive to a multi-state regional provider who has us 
locked into primarily coal  mined and sluiced 100 miles across the 
Navajo Reservation (but only for a few more years) while Kit Carson COOP 
(Taos county) recently announced some net-sustainable success story (not 
sure of the details...  electrons in the grid don't have 
block-chain-class identity, so short of being an isolated island, nobody 
knows their provenance?).    I'm hoping for a similar (r)evolution in  
our COOP, but plan to (continue to) take matters into my own hands 
locally, even if I remain grid-tied to be a "good neighbor".   The 
power-distribution for my neighborhood (4 in an isolated island) is on 
my property and last time JMEC did service they bolt-cut the lock and 
left it that way... I could slap an induction ammeter on the gear and 
see how much of any excess power I might peak with on PV was going 
downstream, and how much upstream (likely all downstream)...



*From:*Friam  *On Behalf Of *cody dooderson
*Sent:* Saturday, January 27, 2024 4:27 PM
*To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 


*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

I am convinced that in the next 30 years, there will be some massive 
geo-engineering projects to reverse the course of climate change. We 
can only hope that they will be well thought out. Harvard has a 
geoengineering program with a nice web page. I check it from time to 
time and it helps me feel a bit more optimistic about the future.



_ Cody Smith _

c...@simtable.com

On Sat, Jan 27, 2024 at 3:11 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

I am not a big fan of Sabine. Her book "Lost in math" is too
pessimistic and too negative for me. She earns money from her
YouTube video channel. The more sensational the content, the more
clicks. That being said I agree that climate change is one of the
biggest problems, and the outlook is not good.

If we don't act now temperatures will rise inevitably, and there
is a real possibility our economies will collapse. But if we
prohibit all fossil fuels now our economies will collapse too,
because they depend on it. Airplanes, ships, trucks, cars,
heatings in our homes, plastic products,... everything is based on
fossil fuels.

What our leaders do is take they planes and private jets to fly to
climate conferences and economic forums where they agree on lofty
goals but when they return it is business as usual.

What we can do is voting for better politics - besides getting an
emission free car, using electric trains and public transport,
switching to sustainable energy, using less plastic, etc.
Eventually it will also mean less travelling by plane and cruise
ships. This means no longer vacation in exotic places - but
imagine how much better the air in our cities would be if the
majority of cars are emission free.

-J.

 Original message 

From: Russ Abbott 

Date: 1/27/24 10:01 PM (GMT+01:00)

To: ICE - debora shuger , Rob Watson
, Richard Abbott
, "Michael, Maria, and Luna
Abbott-Whitley/Penado" , Danielle
Abbott-Whitley , "Whitley, Julian"
, Dale Shuger , The
Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 

Subject: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

I apologize for this relatively mass email. It was prompted by a
video <https://youtu.be/4S9sDyooxf4?si=_A767WzYTxriYGdl> by Sabine
Hossenfelder,  Sabine is a theoretical physicist who has spent
much of her recent life as a popular science writer and video
maker. See her Wikipedia pag

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Steve Smith]

I love me a good dose of Sabine... her flat-delivery of equally serious 
and glib lines is killer IMO... and for the most part I feel compelled 
to defer to her facts and analyses (almost) without reserve. (/around 
13:30 she said "so mind-f#%#%ingly stupid" /). I'm surprised she didn't 
actually invoke the biblical "four horsemen"!  Her closing statement 
with the "stop gluing yourself to things" sorta made Sabine the 
anti-Greta?  Both of those made me choke on my coffee .


The whole North-Atlantic circulation thing (AMOC tipping point) 
threatening to undermine the British Isles and Scandinavia's relatively 
mild winters (moderated by oceanic heat transport from the equator) is 
one of the things I expect to crash a lot of expectations (and economies 
and ???) around the industrial north.   New England is also implicated 
in a major/abrupt local climate change from this as well.


I did a short stint with a pre-climate (atmospheric-ocean model 
coupling) modeling team at LANL in the 90s and what I enjoyed most was 
the cognitive dissonance amongst the researchers who on one hand felt 
they couldn't predict *anything* confidently but recognized the 
incredibly high stakes and the emerging awareness of the implications of 
dynamical systems theory on the domain... how many bifurcation points 
likely surrounded the relatively linear "basin" the climate has been 
wandering in since the Younger Dryas.


Without exception, every scientist I worked with then privately declared 
"we have a problem!" even though they didn't feel they had anywhere near 
the evidence to say anything that strongly in their publications.


Anecdotally, I've been experiencing a fairly steady winter-warming at my 
high-desert location 20 miles outside Santa Fe at about 5400ft where I 
catch the cold-air flow off of both the Sangre de Christo and the Jemez 
mtns.   Winters have gotten drier for the most part and while the lows 
still maintain (see above), the highs during the winter (and dead of 
summer) have risen consistently for the last 20 years I've lived at this 
location.


The climate and long-range weather forecasts for the area that I've 
checked out are somewhat mutually contradictory and my 
half-full/half-empty biases lead me to smug satisfaction when my fruit 
trees promise to do better than historically, even if my tomatoes freeze 
on Oct 1 no matter what (I've tossed plastic film over them and had them 
keep on growing/ripening until Thanksgiving a few years when I've 
bothered)...  root vegetables can now stay in the ground until I dig to 
eat and winter squash on the vine outside longer and longer.


On the half-empty side, surface water is becoming more and more dear 
here, my AC-free summers are getting more uncomfortable and it is likely 
enough that all of this is a minor perturbation compared to what might 
hit this region in the next few decades as various major tipping points tip.




   If I were younger, I'd probably be more (personally) worried. I tell
   my 40-something progeny that they should plan on the possibility
   that they might live forever and their children are even more likely
   to.  Me, I'm just happy that when my hand-carved wooden chompers get
   too slimy and splintery to use that the folks with drills and
   novacaine can make me a "screw-in set" like Nicks!

   Meanwhile the only thing I can think to do is keep lowering my own
   personal footprint and readying my home(stead) for another
   generation to pick up wherever I leave off with an equally lowered
   (residence-induced) footprint.  I'm not vegan (yet) but I try to buy
   my eggs from local home-raised sources and keep my agri-industry
   consumption of milk/cheese/butter down to a fraction of my former
   appetite.

   I've lowered my heating demand (via wood-burning) to near net-zero,
   burning (almost) only the prunings and trimmings from my own (1.5
   acre high desert) property (and some from neighbors who CBB).   PV
   tech is mature enough that *used* gear on the order of $10k
   investment can probably allow me to quit spinning the hydro-turbines
   up the river (Abiqui Lake) and spewing coal-smoke out of the
   4-corners plant my co-op draws primarily from.   A couple of
   mini-split heat-pumps might give me both relief from the worst
   summer heat and displace yet-more of the cellulose I (grow) and
   burn.   A little more PV and I can displace the 20lb propane
   cylinder I burn for cooking in the summer into induction cooking?

   Nevertheless, I'm still a big "part of the problem" just by being a
   member of the first-world economy...   even if I quit burning any
   transportation fuel (jet or train or private auto) entirely and eat
   mostly plants (not too much as M. Pollan recommends).




On 1/27/24 1:59 PM, Russ Abbott wrote:
I apologize for this relatively mass email. It was prompted by a video 
 by Sabine 
Hossenfelder, Sabine is a theoretical physicist 

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Marcus Daniels]

People are rightly livid with the gas and electric utilities here in 
California, but the state is doing better than other states on renewables.  
More than half the grid is solar during the day.  Large installations of 
batteries are in use and investments in offshore wind are expanding.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of cody dooderson
Sent: Saturday, January 27, 2024 4:27 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

I am convinced that in the next 30 years, there will be some massive 
geo-engineering projects to reverse the course of climate change. We can only 
hope that they will be well thought out. Harvard has a geoengineering program 
with a nice web page. I check it from time to time and it helps me feel a bit 
more optimistic about the future.

_ Cody Smith _
c...@simtable.com<mailto:c...@simtable.com>


On Sat, Jan 27, 2024 at 3:11 PM Jochen Fromm 
mailto:j...@cas-group.net>> wrote:
I am not a big fan of Sabine. Her book "Lost in math" is too pessimistic and 
too negative for me. She earns money from her YouTube video channel. The more 
sensational the content, the more clicks. That being said I agree that climate 
change is one of the biggest problems, and the outlook is not good.

If we don't act now temperatures will rise inevitably, and there is a real 
possibility our economies will collapse. But if we prohibit all fossil fuels 
now our economies will collapse too, because they depend on it. Airplanes, 
ships, trucks, cars, heatings in our homes, plastic products,... everything is 
based on fossil fuels.

What our leaders do is take they planes and private jets to fly to climate 
conferences and economic forums where they agree on lofty goals but when they 
return it is business as usual.

What we can do is voting for better politics - besides getting an emission free 
car, using electric trains and public transport, switching to sustainable 
energy, using less plastic, etc. Eventually it will also mean less travelling 
by plane and cruise ships. This means no longer vacation in exotic places - but 
imagine how much better the air in our cities would be if the majority of cars 
are emission free.

-J.


 Original message 
From: Russ Abbott mailto:russ.abb...@gmail.com>>
Date: 1/27/24 10:01 PM (GMT+01:00)
To: ICE - debora shuger mailto:shu...@gmail.com>>, Rob Watson 
mailto:rnwat...@humnet.ucla.edu>>, Richard Abbott 
mailto:richard.e.abb...@gmail.com>>, "Michael, 
Maria, and Luna Abbott-Whitley/Penado" 
mailto:mabbottwhit...@gmail.com>>, Danielle 
Abbott-Whitley mailto:dlw0...@gmail.com>>, "Whitley, Julian" 
mailto:jln.whit...@gmail.com>>, Dale Shuger 
mailto:shuger02...@yahoo.com>>, The Friday Morning 
Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

I apologize for this relatively mass email. It was prompted by a 
video<https://youtu.be/4S9sDyooxf4?si=_A767WzYTxriYGdl> by Sabine Hossenfelder, 
 Sabine is a theoretical physicist who has spent much of her recent life as a 
popular science writer and video maker. See her Wikipedia 
page<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabine_Hossenfelder>.

The video linked to above talks about climate models. The bottom line is that 
it appears that most of the current models have underestimated how quickly 
earth will warm. The consequences are frightening.

-- Russ Abbott
Professor Emeritus, Computer Science
California State University, Los Angeles
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[cody dooderson]

I am convinced that in the next 30 years, there will be some massive
geo-engineering projects to reverse the course of climate change. We can
only hope that they will be well thought out. Harvard has a geoengineering
program with a nice web page. I check it from time to time and it helps me
feel a bit more optimistic about the future.

_ Cody Smith _
c...@simtable.com


On Sat, Jan 27, 2024 at 3:11 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> I am not a big fan of Sabine. Her book "Lost in math" is too pessimistic
> and too negative for me. She earns money from her YouTube video channel.
> The more sensational the content, the more clicks. That being said I agree
> that climate change is one of the biggest problems, and the outlook is not
> good.
>
> If we don't act now temperatures will rise inevitably, and there is a real
> possibility our economies will collapse. But if we prohibit all fossil
> fuels now our economies will collapse too, because they depend on it.
> Airplanes, ships, trucks, cars, heatings in our homes, plastic products,...
> everything is based on fossil fuels.
>
> What our leaders do is take they planes and private jets to fly to climate
> conferences and economic forums where they agree on lofty goals but when
> they return it is business as usual.
>
> What we can do is voting for better politics - besides getting an emission
> free car, using electric trains and public transport, switching to
> sustainable energy, using less plastic, etc. Eventually it will also mean
> less travelling by plane and cruise ships. This means no longer vacation in
> exotic places - but imagine how much better the air in our cities would be
> if the majority of cars are emission free.
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Russ Abbott 
> Date: 1/27/24 10:01 PM (GMT+01:00)
> To: ICE - debora shuger , Rob Watson <
> rnwat...@humnet.ucla.edu>, Richard Abbott ,
> "Michael, Maria, and Luna Abbott-Whitley/Penado" ,
> Danielle Abbott-Whitley , "Whitley, Julian" <
> jln.whit...@gmail.com>, Dale Shuger , The Friday
> Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate
>
> I apologize for this relatively mass email. It was prompted by a video
>  by Sabine
> Hossenfelder,  Sabine is a theoretical physicist who has spent much of her
> recent life as a popular science writer and video maker. See her Wikipedia
> page .
>
> The video linked to above talks about climate models. The bottom line is
> that it appears that most of the current models have underestimated how
> quickly earth will warm. The consequences are frightening.
>
> -- Russ Abbott
> Professor Emeritus, Computer Science
> California State University, Los Angeles
> -. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom
> https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
> to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
> archives:  5/2017 thru present
> https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
>   1/2003 thru 6/2021  http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
>
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

[Jochen Fromm]

I am not a big fan of Sabine. Her book "Lost in math" is too pessimistic and 
too negative for me. She earns money from her YouTube video channel. The more 
sensational the content, the more clicks. That being said I agree that climate 
change is one of the biggest problems, and the outlook is not good.If we don't 
act now temperatures will rise inevitably, and there is a real possibility our 
economies will collapse. But if we prohibit all fossil fuels now our economies 
will collapse too, because they depend on it. Airplanes, ships, trucks, cars, 
heatings in our homes, plastic products,... everything is based on fossil 
fuels. What our leaders do is take they planes and private jets to fly to 
climate conferences and economic forums where they agree on lofty goals but 
when they return it is business as usual. What we can do is voting for better 
politics - besides getting an emission free car, using electric trains and 
public transport, switching to sustainable energy, using less plastic, etc. 
Eventually it will also mean less travelling by plane and cruise ships. This 
means no longer vacation in exotic places - but imagine how much better the air 
in our cities would be if the majority of cars are emission free.-J.
 Original message From: Russ Abbott  
Date: 1/27/24  10:01 PM  (GMT+01:00) To: ICE - debora shuger 
, Rob Watson , Richard Abbott 
, "Michael, Maria, and Luna Abbott-Whitley/Penado" 
, Danielle Abbott-Whitley , 
"Whitley, Julian" , Dale Shuger , 
The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group  Subject: 
[FRIAM] Bad news about the climate I apologize for this relatively mass email. 
It was prompted by a video by Sabine Hossenfelder,  Sabine is a theoretical 
physicist who has spent much of her recent life as a popular science writer and 
video maker. See her Wikipedia page.The video linked to above talks about 
climate models. The bottom line is that it appears that most of the current 
models have underestimated how quickly earth will warm. The consequences are 
frightening.  -- Russ Abbott                                       Professor 
Emeritus, Computer ScienceCalifornia State University, Los Angeles
-. --- - / ...- .- .-.. .. -.. / -- --- .-. ... . / -.-. --- -.. .
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe   /   Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom 
https://bit.ly/virtualfriam
to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
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archives:  5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/
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