On Aug 28, 9:50 am, Peter Webb <r.peter.w...@gmail.com> wrote:
> The figures are clearly and obviously wrong. The most basic common
> sense should tell you that.

Common sense is often a pretty unreliable metric.

Clearly stats based on a single app should not be generalised too much
especially (as gosh mentioned earlier) when the numbers involved are
fairly small.

Here's one theory: Pirate sites have far less apps than the Android
Market and so the apps that are there are far more discoverable. Users
are downloading them out of curiosity and would never have bought them
even if the pirate sites didn't exist. There could be just a few users
downloading a whole load of pirate copies and so skewing the results.
Here's a wild guess: most pirated downloads are discovered directly on
the pirate site (as opposed to users discovering the app on the Market
and then searching for a pirate copy).

Maybe the analytics show those users are regularly using the apps?
This doesn't mean they would have been prepared to fork out cash. For
many users, many apps are nice to have but not good enough to pay for.
Or maybe they simply can't pay for it.

Imagine this for every 10,000 android users in Australia:

8 buy your app
92 download a pirate copy

So it would only take at least 1% of users to actively use pirate
sites to make these numbers work. I'd expect the number to be more
like 10% (another wild guess) which would mean about 10% of those
users thought your app was at least "good enough to try".

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