I've been overwhelmed with responses to this article over the past few days. Let me just say a few things generally about the "study", the results, and the conclusions that one can draw.
1. This study obviously isn't scientific. It's better than anecdotal and intuition to be sure, but it's not scientific. It seems that many (not all) news outlets ran with this as definitive proof of something or another. It's clearly not. I will say that it DOES reflect reality as I've experienced it as an Android developer. Much more than 2/3 of the installs of my app are pirated. That is reality. 2. I have no vendetta against any particular country. I in fact do NOT believe that Australia is "an oversized island full of criminals" as one rather unpleasant message accused me. I've received a large number of emails (some that are fairly nasty) trying to imply that I somehow dislike this country or that. I stated my assumptions and my method as clearly as I could, and I welcome similar studies that use better methods or models and a bigger data set. I would be very interested to see more along these lines. 3. My app, Screebl Pro, follows a pattern very similar to many fairly successful apps on Android Market. My lite versions is VERY functional, with the Pro version providing only a few select advanced features beyond Lite. Lite has about 150,000 downloads, and Pro just over 10,000, with both having approval ratings of 4.5 stars. My paid app has fairly high visibility in the market (been hovering near the top 25 in its category and top 100 overall for months). I use viral marketing from my Lite to Pro version, and in fact pioneered some of the techniques used by many apps now including embedding a video feed in the Lite version, including social sharing features, etc. I think the points raised in this thread about utility apps having different "piracy profiles" is likely very valid, but I have no data to support that assertion. 4. As for the statistical validity of my charts, there are many complaints that have merit. In the end I chose to not filter and just include everything from the 90-day span. Obviously, however, country samples that include only 5 installs are not going to be representative of the purchasing habits of the entire country. 5. Data corruption is possible. I have no real way of evaluating that, unless one considers that the corruption occurred as part of my own collection, although I doubt this as I used very simple techniques. Also the results for the larger data sets (U.S. and UK) are in line with previous samples that I've done on piracy of my app. As I pointed out in my article, I use Flurry and Google Checkout. I made no attempt to filter that data or scrub it. Flurry at least attempts to track "unique users", and Google Checkout obviously tracks purchases uniquely. I'm all in on Android. I want the platform to succeed, and I am invested in its success. I did this study to convince myself and others (that actually have the influence and ability to affect change in the platform) that piracy is indeed a significant problem for me and my app. I would welcome others that question my data, technique, or motives and also have access to similar raw data to perform their own tests. It was fairly easy to do (took me a total of a couple hours), and anyone that has flurry or the likes installed on a paid app should be able to do the same. Dave On Aug 28, 1:58 am, gosh <steve...@unimelb.edu.au> wrote: > Hi Dave, > > Thanks for the stats - as disconcerting as they are. > > As an Australian software developer I was very disappointed to see > Australia up top in the percentages on your scale of software pirates, > wrt to your app - which I find hard to explain, subjectively or > otherwise. > > I'll make a few points though (I'm assuming your figures are for your > utility 'Screebl Pro', via your link): > > * Having some background in data analysis, I don't consider sample > sizes under 300 to be statistically significant - which leaves you > with 4 rows of data at this stage. > > * Going on your app, the US is the only place where Android is a big > success thus far - I do know that 'utility' programs are a bit > 'techie' for most regular phone users, but I'm thinking percentages > here. > > * Android phones are fairly few on the ground in Australia (in my > limited experience with other Android owners - other owners have been > either software developers/publishers or university students, many of > whom are from overseas - many/most countries). That said, since the > 'main' telco here (Telstra) began selling Android phones here in April > 2010, some regular folk/mums-and-dads are now starting to buy them…. > i.e. The fact that australia is 4th in your list of overall downloads > is very surprising to me, given the great lack of Google/Android-phone > focus upon Australia - I thought it would be down around the NZ > figures. Note: Most ads I've seen for Android phones here do 'not' > even mention 'Android' at all (E.g. the recent ads for the Samsung > i9000 Galaxy S ) - so I assume its either a perceived marketing > negative, or its not worth the 'copy' space the single word would take > up. > > * As a former president of the Australian Software Publishers > Association, I know that Australians generally 'do' buy their software > when its not open source - which is the main precursor to acountry > having a software industry. Its a part of the 'a fair go mate' ethos > here - so Indy developers are likely to do well here - and do, given > an avenue to market. > > * I do know that there are lots of software developers in Australia > 'very pissed-off' with Google in that we are unable to 'sell' our > programs in the Android Market (even though our customers can buy them > from elsewhere) - e.g. I've had programs sitting here collecting dust > for 12 months (yes, 365 days, one planetary orbit around the Sun [the > one thats 93 million miles away] - no actions, and worse, no words > about actions, from Google) come Tuesday this week > see:http://www.digitalfriend.org/blog/month2009-09.html- but that is > unlikely to cause a software developer to pirate other software > developers hard work. I certain haven't and wouldn't. That kama is > reserved for Google (and then Android), not for fellow software > developers. i.e. If you are unable to circulate your own work, ones > enthusiasm eventually dries up and withers on the vine, such that, in > my case at least, I've abandoned my daily usage of the Android phone > itself, and now use an alternative smart phone from a company with a > global perspective instead. > > * Its true that, within the list of countries wrt your downloads, > Canadian, Kiwi and Swiss developers also cannot sell their apps on > Google Android Market to their own customers - so if it was 'a > disgruntled developer issue' re Australia, you would likely see it > there too - but as I've pointed out, your figures for those countries > are statistically insignificant, so that doesn't constitute evidence > either way. > > * I'm not surprised at your figures for Japan - even major software > contracts with Japanese companies usually only require a hand-shake to > seal an honorable relationship. (I wonder if they even have local > lawyers? ) > > * As much as I am surprised at your figures for Australia, I am also > surprised at your figures for the US. They seem overly high to me. It > makes me wonder what your software does and how much it costs wrt > other apps? More so, it makes me wonder if the 'Lite' version is an > overly crippled version of the 'Pro' version, such that large numbers > of people are justifying an illegal download of the Pro version. I.e. > Is the Lite version 'really' useful in its own right - or is it little > more than 'an ad' that constitutes an expensive download to the > unwitting customer/phone user? It would also be of general interest to > know what the respective download numbers for your 'Lite' version are, > over the same period of time? (Note: I really have no knowledge of > your app - so these are just very general questions/ponderings by me, > and are certainly 'not' reflections upon your apps, Lite version or > Pro)… > > If your figures are indeed generally representative of Android apps of > all sorts, then yes, your experience is indeed a worry for all - and > it makes a Licensing approach totally necessary for paid apps - sad > but true, given the low retail cost of phone apps in general. > > Cheers > Steve > > On Aug 27, 7:15 am, keyeslabs <keyes...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > Actually, the largest *contributor* to piracy was the US, but the > > highest piracy rates (as a percentage of total installs) were > > elsewhere. For example, the US has a piracy rate (on my app) of about > > 70%, but Australia is more like 92%. For the countries where apps may > > be purchased, here's the breakdown: > > >CountryPurchases Installs Pirated Installs Piracy Rate > > Australia 26 321 295 92% > > Austria 6 13 7 54% > > Canada 25 96 71 74% > > France 23 104 81 78% > > Germany 38 161 123 76% > > Italy 4 36 32 89% > > Japan 467 467 0 0% > > Netherlands 24 98 74 76% > > New Zealand 4 8 4 50% > > Spain 7 63 56 89% > > Switzerland 7 21 14 67% > > United Kingdom 108 335 227 68% > > United States 2051 6105 4054 66% > > > The US isn't the highest, but still, it's disturbing how high the rate > > is in ALL of these countries where purchases could be made... > > > Dave > > > On Aug 26, 4:59 pm, niko20 <nikolatesl...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > > Excellent analysis. Once again showing that you can't make assumptions > > > about a market without cold hard data to back it up. Your results > > > found that the largest piracy rates actually occurred in countries > > > where users COULD buy apps ! I guess USA is just a bunch of cheap > > > *sses :) > > > > -niko > > > > On Aug 26, 3:22 pm, keyeslabs <keyes...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > Recently did an analysis of piracy rates bycountryfor my app. Found > > > > some very interesting tidbits that I think may be of interest to > > > > members of this group: http://bit.ly/bSaoBe > > > > > Dave -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Developers" group. To post to this group, send email to android-developers@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to android-developers+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-developers?hl=en
